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Dunn had surgery today and will miss 6 weeks (1 Viewer)

harryhood

harryhood

Footballguy
If the timeline is correct Dunn wouldn't be practicing till the week before the game. Is Norwood the starter for the first 4 games? I see a lot of love for Dunn this year as a sneaky late round play, but I dont like this news. I think Jerry Norwood could be in for a pretty decent year if he gets the bulk, agree?

(KFFL) Updating a previous item, ESPNews reports Atlanta Falcons RB Warrick Dunn (herniated disc) is expected to miss six weeks.

 
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harryhood said:
If the timeline is correct Dunn wouldn't be practicing till the week before the game. Is Norwood the starter for the first 4 games? I see a lot of love for Dunn this year as a sneaky late round play, but I dont like this news. I think Jerry Norwood could be in for a pretty decent year if he gets the bulk, agree?
Click to expand...
link ?
 
I already thought Norwood was in for a decent year, but now it's all but assured. Of course, having Joey Harrington at QB and losing Dunn very much could mean the Falcons field a god awful offense, so Norwood may not get many scoring chances either way. The hits just keep on coming in the ATL.

 
by_the_sea_wannabe said:
harryhood said:
If the timeline is correct Dunn wouldn't be practicing till the week before the game. Is Norwood the starter for the first 4 games? I see a lot of love for Dunn this year as a sneaky late round play, but I dont like this news. I think Jerry Norwood could be in for a pretty decent year if he gets the bulk, agree?
Click to expand...
link ?
Click to expand...
Just on NFL Live -- herniated disc - out six weeks.
 
Jason Wood said:
I already thought Norwood was in for a decent year, but now it's all but assured. Of course, having Joey Harrington at QB and losing Dunn very much could mean the Falcons field a god awful offense, so Norwood may not get many scoring chances either way. The hits just keep on coming in the ATL.
Click to expand...
still he is a big boy and will be a featured back for some time. Got to like his odds to punch some scores in and get some yardage.
 
Where is this coming from? It's the first I've heard of it.

IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers. I doubt the Vick story will go away either, further being a distraction to the team.

Not knowing what the news is, I have a hard time guessing what it all means although on the surface one would think it has to be good for Norwood.

 
David Yudkin said:
Where is this coming from? It's the first I've heard of it.IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers. I doubt the Vick story will go away either, further being a distraction to the team. Not knowing what the news is, I have a hard time guessing what it all means although on the surface one would think it has to be good for Norwood.
Click to expand...
Just seemed to happen today...way out of the blue
 
Mystery Achiever said:
by_the_sea_wannabe said:
harryhood said:
If the timeline is correct Dunn wouldn't be practicing till the week before the game. Is Norwood the starter for the first 4 games? I see a lot of love for Dunn this year as a sneaky late round play, but I dont like this news. I think Jerry Norwood could be in for a pretty decent year if he gets the bulk, agree?
Click to expand...
link ?
Click to expand...
Just on NFL Live -- herniated disc - out six weeks.
Click to expand...
herniated disc's usually take longer than the estimated time as well. Everyone heals differently. To amke matters worse for an NFL RB who can take a significant pounding due collisions that strain the back, one good hit could cause a relapse in the heeling process. One thing in his favor is his running style. He very rarley takes hits. he is so effective at getting the yards givin to him and avaoiding the big hits by diving under tacklers and running out of bounds. As a small guy you have to. Edge is another guy who has this skill masterered. Rarely does he take big hits.
 
funny there a half dozen links if you google this and none are from the AJC

what a terrible paper/site

atlanta is going to have a very early pick next year

 
He already had shoulder surgery this offseason. Seems like he's finally breaking down :blackdot:

 
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I guess I should have not tried to sneak another dynasty year out of this guy. Those fantasy WR 5 or 6 offers I was getting early in the off season are looking good at this point.

 
These neck and back injuries for NFL players are scary. It could be tough for him to miss camp and just come in to a "live" game, at least until weeks 3-5. Another hard knock and Dunn's career could be over. I'm not counting him out though, tough little guy. I agree, its near impossible to predict whats going to happen but that Norwood has a great chance to step up and be a FF force.

 
David Yudkin said:
IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers.
Click to expand...
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
 
Fullback Fro said:
Mystery Achiever said:
by_the_sea_wannabe said:
harryhood said:
If the timeline is correct Dunn wouldn't be practicing till the week before the game. Is Norwood the starter for the first 4 games? I see a lot of love for Dunn this year as a sneaky late round play, but I dont like this news. I think Jerry Norwood could be in for a pretty decent year if he gets the bulk, agree?
Click to expand...
link ?
Click to expand...
Just on NFL Live -- herniated disc - out six weeks.
Click to expand...
herniated disc's usually take longer than the estimated time as well. Everyone heals differently. To amke matters worse for an NFL RB who can take a significant pounding due collisions that strain the back, one good hit could cause a relapse in the heeling process. One thing in his favor is his running style. He very rarley takes hits. he is so effective at getting the yards givin to him and avaoiding the big hits by diving under tacklers and running out of bounds. As a small guy you have to. Edge is another guy who has this skill masterered. Rarely does he take big hits.
Click to expand...
This is huge news. I agree that this will injury could span over a lot more than 6 weeks. Herniated disks don't just go away. Lots of rehab, strengthening, etc and at Dunn's age could spell doom for his prospects going forward. With Harrington under center, one has to expect this team will not win many games. And if they lose a bunch early, why would the Falcons hurry Dunn back? This team is unraveling in a huge way quickly.
 
zadok said:
David Yudkin said:
IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers.
Click to expand...
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
Click to expand...
have you never seen a falcons game or a vick highlight reel?defenses had fits gameplanning for vick
 
zadok said:
David Yudkin said:
IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers.
Click to expand...
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
Click to expand...
Do teams need to game plan for Harrington running the ball for 100 yards in a game? Is he really a threat to run or pass on any play like Vick?
 
zadok said:
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
Click to expand...
But Vick's running saved many a drive with the horrible stats. If Harrington is as bad a passer as Vick was (and can't run), defenses are going to tee off on this team. No more spy worrying about a running Vick. That extra person will be either guarding against the pass (in known passsing situations) or in the box to stop the run on early downs. Norwood gets a huge bump up, but this will affect his YPC a lot with only one real option. A lot of Atlanta's yards came because of the threat of Michael Vick to run. Draw plays, etc were extremely effective.
 
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Fiddles said:
zadok said:
David Yudkin said:
IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers.
Click to expand...
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
Click to expand...
have you never seen a falcons game or a vick highlight reel?defenses had fits gameplanning for vick
Click to expand...
What does that have to do with the supporting cast? Vick is the same quality of passer as Harrington. IE - not good. Why would everyone else's numbers be hurt?
 
zadok said:
David Yudkin said:
IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers.
Click to expand...
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
Click to expand...
Maybe because Vick also ran. Harrington can run too, but it was usually to the sideline after yet another incomplete pass.
 
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
 
ESPN confirming:

Atlanta Falcons running back Warrick Dunn underwent surgery for a herniated disc last week and is expected to miss six weeks, which would encompass all of training camp, ESPN's Ed Werder reported Wednesday.

It's the second surgery the 32-year-old has had since the Falcons completed a 7-9 season. In January, he had arthroscopic surgery for a damaged shoulder that bothered him much of the season. At the time, the team said that Dunn would need several months of rehabilitation before he's able to resume football workouts but was expected to make a full recovery.

The 10-year veteran started every game for the third year in a row. Dunn had a career-high 286 carries and rushed for 1,140 yards.
Click to expand...
 
My question now is what motivation does Dunn have to return to football at all after this? He's already established himself financially, he's a smart guy and well liked/respected in society. He will have it made.

I'd be willing to bet he hangs them up after this year.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
His last two years in college he averaged 17 to 17.5 carries per game with almost a 6 ypc.
 
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zadok said:
David Yudkin said:
IMO, all bets are off for the Falcons this year in terms of projections. Vick likely is gone and I hardly think Harrington would be an upgrade. That alone should hurt everyone's numbers.
Click to expand...
Why do people say this? I say nothing changes with Harrington:In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs
Click to expand...
but Vick rushes for 700-1000 yards and Harrington does not. The fact that he has a LB shadowing his every move opens up the offense. With Harrington in there that LB will be dropped in the box to stop the run.
 
this may end up helping Dunn's value tremendously. They were being drafted around the same spot and now his value will plummet. He'll be a good 4th/5th RB to add in the later rounds.

 
David Yudkin said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
His last two years in college he average 17 to 17.5 carries per game with almost a 6 ypc.
Click to expand...
18 carries a game seems like the absolute ceiling to me. He missed two games with knee injuries last year, and that was in limited duty. I just don't see how a guy with his little stick legs and slight frame can hold up under a full feature back load. If they try to feed him 300 carries (18X16 =288), I don't think he'll last. The optimal workload for him would be something like 200-225 carries with 50+ catches, anything more and I think he ends up on the shelf.
 
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
Over Vincent?
 
ConstruxBoy said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
Over Vincent?
Click to expand...
Vincent is nothing more than a good receiving back at this point. Unless his burst magically returned in the offseason, I don't see him doing much in the NFL. Good guy tho, I talked to him in El Paso and he seemed like he had a real upbeat personality.
 
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I just hope my leaguemates have their heads up their collectice ###es and draft with a magazine printed in June. :lol: It's this type of info that can sometimes go unnoticed by the last minute drafters.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Yudkin said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
His last two years in college he average 17 to 17.5 carries per game with almost a 6 ypc.
Click to expand...
18 carries a game seems like the absolute ceiling to me. He missed two games with knee injuries last year, and that was in limited duty. I just don't see how a guy with his little stick legs and slight frame can hold up under a full feature back load. If they try to feed him 300 carries (18X16 =288), I don't think he'll last. The optimal workload for him would be something like 200-225 carries with 50+ catches, anything more and I think he ends up on the shelf.
Click to expand...
I'm not disagreeing with you, just pointing out what he was accustomed to in the past.Even if he got 15 carries a game (and stayed healthy), that would be 240 carries. At 5 yards a pop that would be 1200 yards not counting any receiving yards.
 
Norwood will take this opportunity and run with it. I am about to get on the horn in my dynasty league and see if I can snag him from his owner. Norwood bulked up this offseason and is a natural runner with great instincts and a lot of toughness. I'd say his stock rises quite a bit with this news.

 
Great news for Crumpler owners in PPR leagues

:no:

Keep getting into 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations = A lot of targets for Crumpler

Maybe less TDs but lot more receptions and yards

 
David Yudkin said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Yudkin said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
His last two years in college he average 17 to 17.5 carries per game with almost a 6 ypc.
Click to expand...
18 carries a game seems like the absolute ceiling to me. He missed two games with knee injuries last year, and that was in limited duty. I just don't see how a guy with his little stick legs and slight frame can hold up under a full feature back load. If they try to feed him 300 carries (18X16 =288), I don't think he'll last. The optimal workload for him would be something like 200-225 carries with 50+ catches, anything more and I think he ends up on the shelf.
Click to expand...
I'm not disagreeing with you, just pointing out what he was accustomed to in the past.Even if he got 15 carries a game (and stayed healthy), that would be 240 carries. At 5 yards a pop that would be 1200 yards not counting any receiving yards.
Click to expand...
I can't see him or any Atlanta RB averaging 5 yards per carry with Harrington at QB. Vick is the reason they had so much room to run last year. Also, Norwoods YPC drops from 6.4 to a little over 5.0 if you subtract his 2 huge runs. Normally I don't care for this kind of stuff, but that is a significant stat IMO. I also wonder how many of Norwoods carries were when the defense was in the nickel.
 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
David Yudkin said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
David Dodds said:
Norwood gets a huge bump up
Click to expand...
definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.
Click to expand...
His last two years in college he average 17 to 17.5 carries per game with almost a 6 ypc.
Click to expand...
18 carries a game seems like the absolute ceiling to me. He missed two games with knee injuries last year, and that was in limited duty. I just don't see how a guy with his little stick legs and slight frame can hold up under a full feature back load. If they try to feed him 300 carries (18X16 =288), I don't think he'll last. The optimal workload for him would be something like 200-225 carries with 50+ catches, anything more and I think he ends up on the shelf.
Click to expand...
He was the only decent player on offense at Mississippi State also, so he will be used to stacked boxes if that's the case. He also showed the ability to take over some games and get 30+ carries (upset win over Florida)
 
I think they all stink this year without the lead "Dog" at QB. What NFL defense will be afraid to run blitz with Harrington at QB and those WRs?

 
Seriously, if you aren't familiar with exactly how horrible Miss State was while he was there, don't even bother commenting on his college stats one way or the other. The fact that he was able to do half what he did in that conference is a minor miracle equivalent to Cutler's college career. Cept that Vandy was actually better than Missy State when they were both in college.

 
I think we can expect about 225 carries for Norwood, assuming Dunn doesn't come back in week 4 or so as the starter. He won't maintain his lofty YPC average, around 4.3 is about right IMO. So chalk him up for 970 rushing yards, 4 TD's, and another 300 receiving and 2 TD's.

 
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David Dodds said:
Fullback Fro said:
Mystery Achiever said:
by_the_sea_wannabe said:
harryhood said:
If the timeline is correct Dunn wouldn't be practicing till the week before the game. Is Norwood the starter for the first 4 games? I see a lot of love for Dunn this year as a sneaky late round play, but I dont like this news. I think Jerry Norwood could be in for a pretty decent year if he gets the bulk, agree?
Click to expand...
link ?
Click to expand...
Just on NFL Live -- herniated disc - out six weeks.
Click to expand...
herniated disc's usually take longer than the estimated time as well. Everyone heals differently. To amke matters worse for an NFL RB who can take a significant pounding due collisions that strain the back, one good hit could cause a relapse in the heeling process. One thing in his favor is his running style. He very rarley takes hits. he is so effective at getting the yards givin to him and avaoiding the big hits by diving under tacklers and running out of bounds. As a small guy you have to. Edge is another guy who has this skill masterered. Rarely does he take big hits.
Click to expand...
This is huge news. I agree that this will injury could span over a lot more than 6 weeks. Herniated disks don't just go away. Lots of rehab, strengthening, etc and at Dunn's age could spell doom for his prospects going forward. With Harrington under center, one has to expect this team will not win many games. And if they lose a bunch early, why would the Falcons hurry Dunn back? This team is unraveling in a huge way quickly.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, we're getting to historic Armageddon-like conditions in the ATL. OUCH.Dropped some off-the-cuff thoughts on the blog if you're interested:

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/07/25/fa...-training-camp/

 
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