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Just drew 14th pick out of 14 for 3rd straight year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pnishthm
- Start date
freeannyong
Footballguy
depends on your individual odds each year
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Banzai method.
And then you (and everyone else) would be dandy.
And then you (and everyone else) would be dandy.
freeannyong
Footballguy
it could be a weighted lottery and then it would be different than others posted
brednbuddah
Footballguy
not such a bad pick.
got the following at that spot in a 14 team mock (te req) on antsports after 6 rounds...
1. t.henry
2. e. james
3. j. walker
4. tj. housh
5. m. leinart
6. t. heap
got the following at that spot in a 14 team mock (te req) on antsports after 6 rounds...
1. t.henry
2. e. james
3. j. walker
4. tj. housh
5. m. leinart
6. t. heap
Addai's Adidas
Footballguy
(1/14)*(1/14)*(1/14)=1/2744.
Junior high stuff there. Odds are greater someone is deliberately screwing you. Are you a jerk?
Junior high stuff there. Odds are greater someone is deliberately screwing you. Are you a jerk?
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simmonjm
Footballguy
Wow thats kinda late for Travis Henry. I drafted him #6 overall on Friday and if I had the #3 pick overall I would have took him there.
Big
Footballguy
LOLJunior high stuff huh?But actually, this year your odds of getting it again were 1:14. You can lose money in roulette thinking black or red is due...
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
Actually the odds are 1:2743 because the definition of odds is favorable:unfavorable. The probability is 1:2744. 
Pnishthm
Footballguy
I try to be a jerk as much as I can but this league thrives on that. All a bunch of trash talkers. We actually fly or drive to a different location across the nation each year for the draft. Last year was Atlanta and this year is Vegas baby! The year before that was Chicago. Normally we have around 9 or 10 of the 14 owners that are able to attend each year. I trust the commish 100% and was just wondering what the odds were on this happening. As for the draft slot, it doesn't really matter to me. I've made the playoffs the previous two years from the 14 slot. The year before those I had #1 overall and missed the playoffs.
RestoreTheROAR
Footballguy
Imagine if there was a line for that
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
Pnishthm
Footballguy
If it were a weighted lottery than OP would have said it was a weighted lotteryOP didn't say if he had a weighted lottery or not.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Exactly, I think it is/was a safe assumption to think it was an even draw.Most draft orders are either random draw with all teams even, or no draw at all based on previous year's standings.If it were a weighted lottery than OP would have said it was a weighted lotteryOP didn't say if he had a weighted lottery or not.
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CalBear
Footballguy
1/2744 is correct for a specific individual drawing 14 three times in a row, but it's only 1/196 for someone in the league drawing 14 three times in a row. Or, to look at it another way, it's 1/196 for you drawing a number three times in a row; it's only 1/2744 if you choose a specific number before your first pick.
1huskerfan
Footballguy
GregR_2
Footballguy
No. As long as the method of determining who gets what pick is random, you have a 1 in 14 chance of getting any individual result, no matter if it was a d1000 or drawing from a hat.CalBears is right though that the odds of it happening to "someone" in the league are only 1 in 196, as opposed to it happening to just you. There are 1:1: odds that someone gets the 14 in the first year, so all that remains is to compute the odds of it happening to that individual, whoever he is, twice more in a row, which is 14^2.
