Just say no. To QBBC in '07. (1 Viewer)

Getting quarterbacks late has been a solid approach to finding value at other positions for many years now.

Basic math led us to the position that when we are in a 12 team league needing 12 quarterbacks that leaves up to 20 other quarterbacks untapped. 18 if its a 14 team league. So it was common thinking (or it became common) to try and secure a couple quarterbacks of the remaining 20 while to bolstering other areas. This method proved advantageous more often then not. Sometimes it was because of an owners skill at player evaluation and other times just blind luck. Whatever the case, it always seemed to be a worthy approach. In fact I have laid off quarterbacks for years, unless it was in a league with double the quarterback useage or an increase in the scoring of QB scoring.

But not this year.

While I like a couple QBs past the #12 mark. I really dont find any of them capable of giving the "for sure" points needed to not give away too much of an advantage to my opponents who have at least secured one quarterback in the top third of the rankings. It will be a fools move to try and cobble two quarterbacks together from the 15-20 range and hope that the schedules will bail you out. Unlike years past.

This comes from trying to break down the following rankings and the tiers.

While trying to find the advantage I noticed it wasnt there. At least not my estimation.

Scoring from '06. 1:20 passing. 1:10rush/rec. 4pts all TD. -1 Int.

[some of my leagues use 6 for all TDs and its close to the same]

1) Manning.

No brainer. A solid 30 pt advantage (almost 2.0 per game) over any QB.

2) Brees.

3) Palmer

4) Bulger

5) Kitna

All four of these were within 21 points of each other. All should be throwing alot again.

6) Brady

Can easily be considered the most consistent behind Manning. But 20 points behind the #2-5 pack.

7) VYoung.

I have him at #3 currently. I expect improvement and if his last eight games are doubled he was 3 points behind Kitna as a rookie.

8) McNabb.

Can easily be higher. Even all alone at #2. But he is assuredly the least durable of any QB thus far on the list and a serious risk/reward player.

09) TRomo

Big fan of what I have seen of Romo on the field and in the fantasy scores. Some questions, but Dallas looks good and was 6th in passing yards.

10) BRoethlisberger

Steelers were 8th in passing yards and should remain more balanced sans Cowher. Ben appears recovered and has talent around him.

11) BFavre

He will simply throw alot. Most attempts in NFL last year. Sturdy like noone else.

12) PRivers

Im not a fan, but I can't deny his team and his '06 output which is spiked by a very impressive TD/Int ratio.

13) MLeinart.

Serious weapons. Arizona was 10th in passing yards last year, another QB who can only improve.

His ten full games - pro rates to the same numbers as Brady last year (240points=15ppg).

14) MHasselbeck Among the best QBBC candidate. Last year was so-so- as he pro rated to the #10 spot. (13ppg) Lost his best fantasy threat.

Then it goes poof.

Jay Cutler. The best of these options. But I'd want him as my #2 not my my #1.

Eli Manning. I dont trust him. No Tiki. Bad line. Team looks shakey.

JP Losman. I dont expect him (or the Bills pass game) vaulting into the the top 8 in ppg anytime soon.

Rex Grossman. Could once again be fantasy serviceable. But I dont think he is a very good NFL quarterback.

Chad Pennington. He is serviceable. But very limited. Clemens seems to be waiting for his shot.

Byron Leftwhich. He has never played a full season. That QBBC death at playoff time.

Steve McNair. Underwhelming in Baltimore last year. May improve in his second year there, but not enough.

Matt Schaub. He intrigues me. Could flourish. But you are flipping a coin at best to try and not be at a disadvantage with Schuab.

Alex Smith. Has much to prove yet. Wide receiveers are lacking. 49ers schedule changed for the worse.

Jason Campbell. Maybe some potential here. But lacking a ton of polish. Starting for my fantasy team?

Jake Delhomme. What happend? He seemed to have lost something last year. Was it all the O-Lines fault? Horrendous '06.

Mike Vick. Uhh what?

Joey Harrington. Will it all change in Atlanta? Doesnt matter, you cant put your fantasy teams success in his hands.

Tavaris Jackson. Something could click and he could run for lots of fantasy points. Starting? Scary.

Jeff Garcia. No thank you. Not in any part of a starting capacity.

Kansas QBs. A real wildcard. They lack at the oline and receivers.

Oakland QBs.

Cleveland QBs.

Miami QBs.

The issue is that if you decide to wait on QBs and get the QBBC, its just risking too much. Your entire year.

If the draft pans out that another owner or two gets a 2nd QB before I grab my first, I may be toast.

And thats a risk you take if you wait. If you dont wait, well then you arent using a QBBC and have a top 8-10 guy at worst.

If I had to go to QBBC... then the obvious choices to me are Leinart, Hasselbeck and Cutler if you can secure them.

The diference in it all, is that in years past there were always quarterback that were down the ranking that owners would target knowing they had a decent chance at getting someone to emerge into the top 10. This year though, once you go past 15 you have nothing to choose from. You cant put two of these guys together with any "for sure" status as was always possible previously. You have to strike in the top 15.

I also dont have the feeling the Cutler or Hasselback will be top seven or eight at all.

As a result, for this year year I would strongly advise dropping down WR#2, WR#3, TE or defense (incl IDP) before you pass on the quarterback if you have the option.

PS: This isnt about my tiers or individual rankings. They may be off a wee bit.

Unless you take the top 13 as one big tier and think someone is seriously missing.

I totally disagree with your ranking of the QBs. Call it QBBC or securing two good players but the goal for me is to secure 2 good QB at value spots in the draft.

I have Leinart #7 with upside.

I don't see the need to go past #14 in your draft but for a backup as well.

However, I do find Chase's theory fascinating and think some savvy FF owner could do real well with it. My understanding is the benefit of it is that you use your picks that you'd be getting Bulger or Brady or Young or whomever for a RB or WR and so your team as a whole is stronger. It's not necessarily QBBC vs Brady but QBBC+decent pick vs Brady+late "hope he works out" pick.

My thinking is I'm not going to purposely draft a WDIS pain in the neck situation I gotta worry about every week. Those will popup on their own. However it's one of the theories I can really embrace on this site. I'm not a fan of targets, YPC, rushing average, or carries as a be all end all as no league I'm in scores either of those and I think it's "overthinking", so there's usually a bit of contempt(lack of a better word) in my head before reading a new theory. I really don't see a prob here though at all.

The worst case is you make the wrong WDIS decision and the QB stinks that week BUT maybe your other pick shined and covers that poor weekly score. I like that type thinking. IMO there's too much seasonal thoughts and not enough week to week thoughts on the boards lately. This I think triggers people to get back to week to week thoughts and I think that's a great change.

Well, I have to disagree, to a certain extent. I never have waited until ALL the other teams have starting QBs necessarily, just to select the two that are probably not rated as high starters that I can get at a decent spot or a decent price. I would feel comfortable this year with any two of the following (assuming the right price):

Any of your guys 9-14 (I don't think there's universal agreement on who these should be, btw. I've seen a lot of mix and churn at that tier)

Cutler

Losman

Delhomme

Garcia (if he heals up and is the week 1 starter)

That gives me 10 guys who have the potential to have good value. That's enough for me, I won't have one of your top 8 unless something really interesting happens.

But I found your list and analysis intriguing, and I can't say much against your theory, it's more a matter of my personal taste in building a team. I find it easier to pick late QBs than late RBs/WRs, so I cover myself somewhat...

It's all about balance. You don't reach for a Peyton Manning or a Carson Palmer but at the same time you don't go bargain basement and put yourself in a position where you have to rely on an unproven player like Losman or Leinart or worse.

I think guys like Tony Romo, Big Ben and Philip Rivers offer a happy medium between not paying too much for a quarterback and not paying too little either.

Would you rather have Palmer and V. Jackson or Fitzgerald and E. Manning?

Would you rather have Brees and V. Jackson or Driver and E. Manning?

Everyone has to make their own decision there.

Ramblin Wreck said:

Would you rather have Palmer and V. Jackson or Fitzgerald and E. Manning?Would you rather have Brees and V. Jackson or Driver and E. Manning?Everyone has to make their own decision there.

Click to expand...

I'd rather have Tony Romo and Donald Driver/Larry Fitzgerald. Or McNabb/Fitzgerald. Or Romo/Driver. It's like what I was talking about before. It doesn't have to be all one way or all another way. You can have your cake and eat it too. It's just a different kind of cake.

Ramblin Wreck said:

Would you rather have Palmer and V. Jackson or Fitzgerald and E. Manning?Would you rather have Brees and V. Jackson or Driver and E. Manning?Everyone has to make their own decision there.

Click to expand...

In both cases I prefer the combo without Eli Manning. But perhaps you could have chosen other players in your combos where I would have preferred the one with the later drafted QB.

I said this in the killer Bs thread but it bears repeating here. I have won so many leagues the last few years (I did not get to draft him the year he was injured) thanks to getting Vick late and him still out producing so many QBs every year, I am mad at the fact that he will not be an option this year.

===========================

Reading these threads make me even more mad at Mike Vick.....if only the idiot could have kept clean. Every year you could count on getting him at least 3 rounds after these so called killer Bs and he would still kick their asses. And all the while, you could get better WR2/3 and RB2/3 and TE1.....Grrr......

Last year's QB production in my FF League (and this is very std scoring)

Manning 364

Brees 302

Bulger 293

Vick 289

Palmer 284

Brady 256

Kitna 248

Rivers 243

McNabb 230

Eli Manning 226

Basically, it comes down to the same thing as it always does: value. Depending on how you rank/project the QBs, the parameters of your league, and where you can get them, it may be value to take a top 5 QB or it may be value to wait. This particular thread is really just about where BigSteelThrill sees the value this year.

I do tend to agree that I'd prefer to have one of the QBs listed in his top 14. But I'm not going to focus my draft strategy on taking one early... I'll just let the value dictate my choices, as usual.

Sweetness_34 said:

I said this in the killer Bs thread but it bears repeating here. I have won so many leagues the last few years (I did not get to draft him the year he was injured) thanks to getting Vick late and him still out producing so many QBs every year, I am mad at the fact that he will not be an option this year.===========================Reading these threads make me even more mad at Mike Vick.....if only the idiot could have kept clean. Every year you could count on getting him at least 3 rounds after these so called killer Bs and he would still kick their asses. And all the while, you could get better WR2/3 and RB2/3 and TE1.....Grrr......Last year's QB production in my FF League (and this is very std scoring)Manning 364 Brees 302Bulger 293Vick 289Palmer 284Brady 256Kitna 248Rivers 243McNabb 230Eli Manning 226

Click to expand...

VY 2007

I drafted Aaron Brooks, Jake Plummer, and Mark Brunell last year because my league drafts QBs waaaay too early. By the end of it I had picked up Steve McNair off waivers, who went and got hurt in the fantasy playoffs and scored me a goose egg. Even with a 0 in the QB slot I still won the championship. Why? Because I picked up the value while the rest of the league was scrambling for QBs. This year one of the owners kept Tony Romo over Travis Henry or Anquan Boldin. 7 QBs were kept out of 36 keeper slots. They love the QBs, I love beating them with guys like Alex Smith scoring 7 points a week while my RBs and WRs score in the high teens and 20s.

I'm going the other way. I see many guys in the back half of the current rankings that I think will be good enough. Also there are almost always guys from the back half who finish top 10.

I'm not sweating QB this year, I'm confident it'll work out later in the draft just fine.

Gr00vus said:

I'm going the other way. I see many guys in the back half of the current rankings that I think will be good enough. Also there are almost always guys from the back half who finish top 10.I'm not sweating QB this year, I'm confident it'll work out later in the draft just fine.

Click to expand...

Can you elaborate on those QBs in the back half of the draft you are targeting?I will also be getting these players as back ups and like some of them. I just fail to see how I am not going to be at a rather large scoring disadvantage if they are my primary starters. Unlike in years past.

Ramblin Wreck said:

I totally disagree with your ranking of the QBs. Call it QBBC or securing two good players but the goal for me is to secure 2 good QB at value spots in the draft.

Click to expand...

So the top 13 (or so) is way off. Who would you add into those top choices from below? Thanks RW.

i always take qb's late, but am starting to lean your way, bigsteel. i do think it is different this year than last. then i felt waiting was right and didn't take a qb in either league before round 9. in one league my qb1 was the 17th taken. i have less of a comfort level with this year's list. maybe that will change in the next week; participating in threads like this does help me think through rankings.

Ramblin Wreck said:

Would you rather have Palmer and V. Jackson or Fitzgerald and E. Manning?

Would you rather have Brees and V. Jackson or Driver and E. Manning?

Everyone has to make their own decision there.

Click to expand...

I find it much much easier to secure other solid options at WR#2 or WR#3 that can work out to be very good scorers.At QB I will be giving away points to my opponent. Even if I get a Schuab or Campbell to go with Eli.

Thus I would rather have Brees and play with other lesser options at WR - then have Jackson and play with other lesser options at quarterback.

My main worry is points that I am losing to my opponent at each position. I find it to be greater at QB then several other slots this year.

The problem with nabbing a QB early is it really forces you to play the guy regardless of schedule because you probably don't have good talent backing him up. If you grab 2 of the 6-14 guys, you can play match-ups and probably outscore the guys forced to play Manning, Palmer, Brees and Brady every week. There is a comfort to just plugging a guy like Manning in every week, but I'm not convinced the price is worth it this year.

ericttspikes said:

The problem with nabbing a QB early is it really forces you to play the guy regardless of schedule because you probably don't have good talent backing him up. If you grab 2 of the 6-14 guys, you can play match-ups and probably outscore the guys forced to play Manning, Palmer, Brees and Brady every week. There is a comfort to just plugging a guy like Manning in every week, but I'm not convinced the price is worth it this year.

Click to expand...

Maybe you can do this. I have found that to be fairly difficult, as QB performance often is not predictable (i.e., good scores against tough opponents and poor scores against easy opponents). As an example, I had Vick and Romo last season. Once Romo became the starter, I think I played the wrong one for 6 or 7 straight weeks. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I was making my decision each week based on matchup and keeping up with latest news, this site's rankings and the forum discussions, etc.Also, if you have a QB you will play every week, you don't necessarily have to roster as many QBs. Which means you might have an extra spot for a sleeper RB or WR. So that also adds a little value to the side of taking a top QB.

ericttspikes said:

If you grab 2 of the 6-14 guys,

Click to expand...

You will be very very strong at QB, if you spend the picks needed to get two of those QBs. Thats not what I was calling a QBBC---Brady and Ben. McNabb and Romo.Certainly thats not the "wait on QBs" that has worked so well in the past. I would consider that as - going after strong QBs by design.

BigSteelThrill said:

Gr00vus said:

I'm going the other way. I see many guys in the back half of the current rankings that I think will be good enough. Also there are almost always guys from the back half who finish top 10.I'm not sweating QB this year, I'm confident it'll work out later in the draft just fine.

Click to expand...

Can you elaborate on those QBs in the back half of the draft you are targeting?I will also be getting these players as back ups and like some of them. I just fail to see how I am not going to be at a rather large scoring disadvantage if they are my primary starters. Unlike in years past.

Click to expand...

Depends on what we mean by back half, but from an NFL perspective, based on ant sports mocks....From 16 back:16. Favre17. Delhomme18. Smith19. Lossman (I like this guy quite a bit, and will be targeting him)23. Garcia28. LeftwichIf you're also including those outside the current top 11 (meaning you take the last "starter"):11. Rivers (he and Leinart are virtually tied at an ADP of 8.01, so it's a toss up who's 12th and who's 11th)12. Leinart13. Cutler (I really like this guy and will be targeting him)15. Roethlisberger maybe Eli tooIt looks to me like I'll do just fine not worrying about qb until round 8 or so, maybe even longer.For instance if I pick up Cutler in round 8, Lossman in round 11 and Garcia in round 13, I think somewhere in there I'll be competitive at qb. Meanwhile I'm picking up Antonio Gates in round 3 while someone else is drafting Palmer or Brady, an Adrian Peterson or Hines Ward or Donald Driver in round four when someone else is drafting Brees or Bulger, a Calvin Johnson or a Deion Branch or a Marion Barber III in round five when somebody's picking McNabb or Kitna - I'd feel pretty good about things in that situation.The thing is staying flexible. Getting fixated on having to have one of the top 7 or 8 guys can cause problems if things don't break right. I just don't see it worth paying a premium for qb, especially in a start 1 league.

There's 7 QBs I'm satisfied with as my QB1 this year. I think these guys are rock solid as long as they stay on the field and have little non-injury bust risk. There is an entirely seperate tier of guys who I THINK will be rock solid, but there is a lot more non-injury bust list. Tops on that list is Romo and a couple of the 2nd year guys. I would prefer not to make a QBBC with the 2nd tier guys, but if the top7 are going insanely early, I'll scoop up those huge values at WR/RB and play matchups all year if I have to.

Manning

Palmer

Brady

Brees

Bulger

McNabb

Kitna

That's the order I'm seeing them off the board usually. So I'm ending up with a lot of Kitna.

In 12 man redrafts using 6pt/TD rushing/rec/passing I have routinely been able to get a combo of Kitna/Romo, Kitna/Cutler, Romo/Cutler/Leinh or some combo thereof taking the first QB around the 7th and the second 8th or 9th and loading up on Rb's and Wr's before that. Start 2RB and 3Wr. I am more than happy with any combo of the above being servicable this year.

videoguy505 said:

I drafted Aaron Brooks, Jake Plummer, and Mark Brunell last year because my league drafts QBs waaaay too early. By the end of it I had picked up Steve McNair off waivers, who went and got hurt in the fantasy playoffs and scored me a goose egg. Even with a 0 in the QB slot I still won the championship. Why? Because I picked up the value while the rest of the league was scrambling for QBs. This year one of the owners kept Tony Romo over Travis Henry or Anquan Boldin. 7 QBs were kept out of 36 keeper slots. They love the QBs, I love beating them with guys like Alex Smith scoring 7 points a week while my RBs and WRs score in the high teens and 20s.

Click to expand...

We keep 3 and I am keeping manning. I can't think of another QB I would keep.

j3r3m3y said:

videoguy505 said:

I drafted Aaron Brooks, Jake Plummer, and Mark Brunell last year because my league drafts QBs waaaay too early. By the end of it I had picked up Steve McNair off waivers, who went and got hurt in the fantasy playoffs and scored me a goose egg. Even with a 0 in the QB slot I still won the championship. Why? Because I picked up the value while the rest of the league was scrambling for QBs. This year one of the owners kept Tony Romo over Travis Henry or Anquan Boldin. 7 QBs were kept out of 36 keeper slots. They love the QBs, I love beating them with guys like Alex Smith scoring 7 points a week while my RBs and WRs score in the high teens and 20s.

Click to expand...

We keep 3 and I am keeping manning. I can't think of another QB I would keep.

Click to expand...

Like I said, I'm up against guppies. Usually the first 11 QBs are gone by the end of the second round (=5.12 in a redraft), so when I scoop up my first, it's four or five rounds later and I'm looking at QB 15-18. Rosters are 8 starters and 6 bench, so it's a small 14 person team size, but still, it's QB crazy. And no, the scoring isn't weird, it's 6 pt TDs, 10 yds/pt rush/rec, and 25 yds/pt passing. In fact, it's actually a slightly anti-QB league because INTs are -3 now, used to be -4.

For the record, besides Manning, the 6 other QBs that were kept in 36 slots were (and to the best of my recollection, who they dropped back into the player pool): Carson Palmer (over Portis), Hasselbeck (Jamal Lewis/Deion Branch), Brees (Thomas Jones/Julius Jones), Brady (Warrick Dunn, and another owner talked him out of dropping Hines Ward to keep Matt Leinart also, and it wouldn't have been the first time someone kept 2 QBs--a year before someone kept Pennington and Delhomme), Romo (Travis Henry/Anquan Boldin) and Bulger (Driver/Glenn/Lee Evans/Deangelo Williams).

Guppies.

You get Leftwich, Cutler, and Grossman and crush.

PahtyTom said:

You get Leftwich, Cutler, and Grossman and crush.

Click to expand...

I got Favre, Grossman and Leftwich late in my WCOFF Sat Draft (4pts/TD)The matchups are cool for all of them since both Grossman and Lefty get Minny & Det twice; Lefty gets Tenessee + Houston twice

Sweetness_34 said:

I said this in the killer Bs thread but it bears repeating here. I have won so many leagues the last few years (I did not get to draft him the year he was injured) thanks to getting Vick late and him still out producing so many QBs every year, I am mad at the fact that he will not be an option this year.===========================Reading these threads make me even more mad at Mike Vick.....if only the idiot could have kept clean. Every year you could count on getting him at least 3 rounds after these so called killer Bs and he would still kick their asses. And all the while, you could get better WR2/3 and RB2/3 and TE1.....Grrr......Last year's QB production in my FF League (and this is very std scoring)Manning 364 Brees 302Bulger 293Vick 289Palmer 284Brady 256Kitna 248Rivers 243McNabb 230Eli Manning 226

Click to expand...

I'm gonna miss Vick, he was so undervalued by the masses in FF the past couple years it was silly.Who cares how he threw, he ran enough to more than make up for it in regards to FF.RIP Vick...at least until you come back better than ever in 08' and win the MVP.

If you get an uber stud qb that simply means you're losing production at another spot. It's not necessarily a bad thing.

When you don't have a stud qb you may be losing at that position but you're often winning at other spots. It evens out.

I've done well over the years with QBBC. I usually grab 2 or 3 guys no one else wants and ride the best matchup. If the matchup is close one week, the key is to not overthink who you are starting. Go with the guy that Football Guys have ranked lowest each week and you'll do fine.

I always seem to be stocked at RB and WR all year because I waited so late for my QB's.

The years I took QB's early, I got smoked. Once with McNabb and one with Bulger.

This year it will be Hasselbeck and E. Manning. Two easy schedules.

last i checked eli had one of the toughest schedules in the nfl

How does this apply to an auction...you figure guys are going to pay in a pretty even range for Bulger, McNabb, Brees, Brady, Palmer, etc...and the premium for Peyton. Is it worth the extra cap dollars to stock up on third tier guys, or in a ten teamer should you jump on board with a Bulger, etc.?

Sweetness_34 said:

PahtyTom said:

You get Leftwich, Cutler, and Grossman and crush.

Click to expand...

I got Favre, Grossman and Leftwich late in my WCOFF Sat Draft (4pts/TD)The matchups are cool for all of them since both Grossman and Lefty get Minny & Det twice; Lefty gets Tenessee + Houston twice

Click to expand...

Ouch. This is exactly why I do not want to get beyond that top 15 (I have listed) or so. "You have to strike in the top 15."

Favre and Grossman or Cutler and Grossman? :X

I guess as a Leinart or Roeth or Romo owner I'd be happy snagging Gerrard from you. Griese may be next.

Based on recent developments, I think I'd move Schaub to at least the top 1or 2 of your "poof" list. I think he has enough weapons around him and has shown enough in the preseason to at least be an occasional fantasy starter this year. Solid #2, outstanding #3. I see the potential for good things with the Houston offense this year.

BigSteelThrill said:

Sweetness_34 said:

PahtyTom said:

You get Leftwich, Cutler, and Grossman and crush.

Click to expand...

I got Favre, Grossman and Leftwich late in my WCOFF Sat Draft (4pts/TD)The matchups are cool for all of them since both Grossman and Lefty get Minny & Det twice; Lefty gets Tenessee + Houston twice

Click to expand...

Ouch. This is exactly why I do not want to get fall beyond that top 15 (I have listed) or so. "You have to strike in the top 15."

Favre and Grossman or Cutler and Grossman?

I guess as a Leinart or Roeth or Romo owner I'd be happy snagging Gerrard from you. Griese may be next.

Click to expand...

I still do not mind going with Favre and Grossman in a 4 pt/TD league. Lot of easy match ups for the NFC North thanks to playing each other and the AFC West and NFC East (Wash, Giants, Dallas have bad pass Ds)

Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Based on recent developments, I think I'd move Schaub to at least the top 1or 2 of your "poof" list. I think he has enough weapons around him and has shown enough in the preseason to at least be an occasional fantasy starter this year. Solid #2, outstanding #3. I see the potential for good things with the Houston offense this year.

Click to expand...

Good point and catch.As I said, he intrigues me. He is at 17 currently on my list. He actually has been switched with Losman all along. I just wasnt using my exact list.Also, on my list Young is #3 and has been for awhile, though I listed him at 7 as a common placement.

I had a big decision at 3.04. Brees, who I coveted, or my #2 RB. I went MJD. Just couldn't pass him up at that spot. McNabb went next pick. Top 6 QB's went by 3.6 (12 teamer). I just couldn't pull the trigger that early. Ended up Romo/Big Ben - hopefully I can play matchups and do well enough with those two.

Judge Smails said:

I had a big decision at 3.04. Brees, who I coveted, or my #2 RB. I went MJD. Just couldn't pass him up at that spot. McNabb went next pick. Top 6 QB's went by 3.6 (12 teamer). I just couldn't pull the trigger that early. Ended up Romo/Big Ben - hopefully I can play matchups and do well enough with those two.

Click to expand...

Thats not just match ups, thats two BIG QBs. Most excellent if you ask me. Their points last year were stellar and both could be even better.

BigSteelThrill said:

Sweetness_34 said:

PahtyTom said:

You get Leftwich, Cutler, and Grossman and crush.

Click to expand...

I got Favre, Grossman and Leftwich late in my WCOFF Sat Draft (4pts/TD)The matchups are cool for all of them since both Grossman and Lefty get Minny & Det twice; Lefty gets Tenessee + Houston twice

Click to expand...

Ouch. This is exactly why I do not want to get beyond that top 15 (I have listed) or so. "You have to strike in the top 15."

Favre and Grossman or Cutler and Grossman? :X

I guess as a Leinart or Roeth or Romo owner I'd be happy snagging Gerrard from you. Griese may be next.

Click to expand...

And yes he was. :( Crushing the QBBC teams.

BigSteelThrill said:

Crushing the QBBC teams.

Click to expand...

1) Manning.

No brainer. A solid 30 pt advantage (almost 2.0 per game) over any QB.

2) Brees.

4) Bulger

7) VYoung.

I have him at #3 currently. I expect improvement and if his last eight games are doubled he was 3 points behind Kitna as a rookie.

13) MLeinart.

Serious weapons. Arizona was 10th in passing yards last year, another QB who can only improve.

His ten full games - pro rates to the same numbers as Brady last year (240points=15ppg).

The issue is that if you decide to wait on QBs and get the QBBC, its just risking too much.

Click to expand...

QB 8 Peyton Manning

.

.

QB 18 Vince Young

.

.

QB 22 Marc Bulger

.

.

QB 25 Drew Brees

.

.

QB 28 Matt Leinart

Meanwhile.....

QB 5 Derek Anderson

QB 7 Jake Delhomme

QB 10 Eli Manning

QB 13 Trent Green

QB 14 David Garrard

QB 16 Jay Cutler

Forgive me if I'm not seeing a ringing endorsement of your hypothesis/opinions.

Looks like QBBC is alive and well to me.

I forgive you.

Seriously though...

Three of the six quarterbacks you pointed out were just as likely to be on a team with a good top 10 QB and not a qbbc team.

QB 5 Derek Anderson

QB 13 Trent Green

QB 14 David Garrard

So that leaves you with Delhomm, Eli and Cutler. I sure hope you hit 'em... which is unlike damn near ever QBBC I see in my leagues. Look at the above "crushing" qbbc as solid examples.

1 Romo, Tony 72 24

2 Brady, Tom 71 23.6

3 Palmer, Carson 70 23.34

4 Kitna, Jon 64.00 21.33

5 Anderson, Derek 59.00 19.67

6 Favre, Brett GNB 58.00 19.33

7 Manning, Peyton 56.00 18.67

8 Delhomme, Jake 55.00 18.33

9 McNabb, Donovan 55.00 18.33

10 Hasselbeck, Matt 50.00 16.67

11 Manning, Eli 50.00 16.67

12 Garrard, David 48.00 16.00

13 Roethlisberger, Ben 47.00 15.67

14 Green, Trent MIA 9 46.00 15.33

15 Cutler, Jay 45.00 15.00

16 Rivers, Philip 43.00 14.33

17 Schaub, Matt 42.00 14.00

18 Harrington, Joey 41.00 13.67

19 Young, Vince 40.00 13.33

20 Campbell, Jason 39.00 13.00

21 Garcia, Jeff 35.00 11.67

22 Bulger, Marc 35.00 11.67

23 McCown, Josh 34.00 11.33

24 Pennington, Chad 30.00 10.00

25 Brees, Drew 30.00 10.00

26 Smith, Alex 30.00 10.00

27 Huard, Damon 29.00 9.67

28 Leinart, Matt 27.00 9.00

29 McNair, Steve 22.00 7.33

30 Grossman, Rex 22.00 7.33

31 Jackson, Tarvaris 21.00 7.00

* Culpepper, Duante 5.0

BigSteelThrill said:

Seriously though...Three of the six quarterbacks you pointed out were just as likely to be on a team with a good top 10 QB and not a qbbc team. QB 5 Derek AndersonQB 13 Trent GreenQB 14 David GarrardSo that leaves you with Delhomm, Eli and Cutler. I sure hope you hit 'em... which is unlike damn near ever QBBC I see in my leagues. Look at the above "crushing" qbbc as solid examples.

Click to expand...

I don't get your first sentence. Does that mean we can't use those guys as part of our QBBC? I don't see any way you can count those guys out of consideration - part of doing QBBC is that since you're not heavily invested in the guys you drafted, waiver wire pick ups are just as good, if not better for your purposes - that's part of the QBBC strategy, if one guy doesn't work out, move on to the next guy.

Gr00vus said:

BigSteelThrill said:

Seriously though...Three of the six quarterbacks you pointed out were just as likely to be on a team with a good top 10 QB and not a qbbc team. QB 5 Derek AndersonQB 13 Trent GreenQB 14 David GarrardSo that leaves you with Delhomm, Eli and Cutler. I sure hope you hit 'em... which is unlike damn near ever QBBC I see in my leagues. Look at the above "crushing" qbbc as solid examples.

Click to expand...

I don't get your first sentence. Does that mean we can't use those guys as part of our QBBC? I don't see any way you can count those guys out of consideration - part of doing QBBC is that since you're not heavily invested in the guys you drafted, waiver wire pick ups are just as good, if not better for your purposes - that's part of the QBBC strategy, if one guy doesn't work out, move on to the next guy.

Click to expand...

Correct. Both Andreson and Gerrard got grabbed by any and everyone. Same now with Griese.As players like Green, Frye Huard are much more likely to be a late round back up Qb selection for a team with a top 10 QB.QBBC players/teams did not have the Fryes and Greens of the world. You cant add free agents to the qbbc pool on the assumption you have any better chance then anyone else.

BigSteelThrill said:

Correct. Both Andreson and Gerrard got grabbed by any and everyone. Same now with Griese.As players like Green, Frye Huard are much more likely to be a late round back up Qb selection for a team with a top 10 QB.QBBC players/teams did not have the Fryes and Greens of the world. You can add free agents to the qbbc pool on the assumption you have any better chance then anyone else.

Click to expand...

I doubt the assumptions you're making here. I doubt the guys with Brees and Bulger, etc. were using their free agent moves week one to pick up Anderson or Garrard. Once Frye got axed a qbbc guy would have been much more likely to pick up Anderson (before the 5 td game), than someone already invested in a high ADP qb. The guy who had Leftwich in his QBBC was probably the most interested and most likely guy to pick up Garrard. Similarly with the Frye owner, etc.Frye, Green, Huard didn't get drafted in any league I was in with 12 owners - just the 16 team league. I thnk most of them were out there to be had. Hell, I think some of them still are available in a couple of leagues right now.But more to the point - who's worse off, the guy who spent the high draft pick on Brees and had to scrounge for Trent Green, or the guy who spent a much lower pick on Leftwich?

Unless you have Manning, Brady, or Palmer, you should be in a QBBC.

Look at the points... unless you got Eli you are down 3 pts per game at QB with the qbbc draft options. Thats who is worse off.

Im not saying you couldnt make it work at all. It just was a very poor year to do it when compared to the previous ones.

And not all top players listed were going to be money, everyone knows that.

However, out of the top 10 drafted QBs you have 9 that were among the top list.

That leaves many teams with QBBC gushing points away... something I did not want to risk.

And I am very glad I didnt as what has shown these first three weeks is spot on to what I had worried about.

A stud receiver in the 2nd round (instead of a QB) would probably make up the difference in QB points. (85, Housh, Roy, S. Smith, etc.)