smcindoe
Footballguy
(Not sure if this has been discussed already, if so please link me to the thread.)
For those of us who play in keeper leagues where a player's value is based on the round he's selected, late-round picks can be gold. If you get the right guy, you can wind up keeping a stud, or at least a solid starter, at a steep discount for years. The secret is finding the right diamond-in-the-rough players.
I'm thinking of guys who'd meet this criteria:
- Available in the late rounds of a draft (i.e. minimal or no perceived value to start the season)
- Strong possibility of a significant increase in value by this time next year
- Young enough to be worth keeping for several years if they turn out to be a hit
It's not really the same thing as your everyday "sleeper" since you're not as worried about this year -- you're buying a lottery ticket for next year and maybe beyond. Typically you'd look for QB and RBs who start the year as backups but can earn a starting job by next season, either through a promotion or by switching teams. It could also include WRs who signicantly outperform their projected stats.
Some examples from the past:
- MJD and Vince Young last year, as well as Matt Schaub and maybe Brandon Jacobs in smaller leagues
- Willie Parker two years ago, in leagues that drafted before he was named starter
- Chester Taylor in his last year with the Ravens
- Steven Jackson in his rookie year when Faulk was still the undisputed starter
- Larry Johnson during Priest's heyday
- Clinton Portis may be the all-time king of this type of player
Obviously a lot of this depends heavily on the individual league's rules and size (a great keeper pick in a 10-team league may be long-gone in a 16-teamer), but let's see what we can come up with.
Some thoughts to kick it off...
Quarterbacks
This is usually the easiest position to find these types of players in: just look for that year's first round picks, since they rarely start out of the gate but occasionally will take over the #1 job by the end of the year. So Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell would go on the list.
What about David Carr? Probably forgotten in most leagues until the late rounds if at all, but a decent chance to take over the starter's job and has some nice weapons available in Carolina.
Beyond that... not sure. I think the ship has already sailed for Aaron Rodgers, even if Favre retired today I don't know that the Packers view him as a long-term solution. Cleo Lemon could fit although Beck makes me wonder.
Running backs
The top rookies like Lynch and Peterson don't qualify since they already have enough value to be taken in the early rounds, and I think Michael Turner is probably too valuable as an LT handcuff to be around in the late rounds. Similar situation for Betts. Mike Bell could qualify but I think most people are wise to the idea of hoarding Denver RBs just in case.
I do think Brandon Jackson would be an excellent pick in smaller leagues if Morency wins the job in GB before your draft. Jerious Norwood comes to mind too but I think the word is already out on him. I do like Chris Henry in Tennessee, though.
Is Justin Fargas worth thinking about here? What about Leon Washington?
Wide receivers
I'm having a hard time coming up with anyone. Calvin Johnson is going too high already. Maybe Dwayne Jarrett? Anthony Gonzalez could shoot up in value if Harrison ever retired. And as crazy as it sounds, if Mike Williams ever got his head on straight... nah.
Anyways, there's a few names to get it started. Who's on your list?
For those of us who play in keeper leagues where a player's value is based on the round he's selected, late-round picks can be gold. If you get the right guy, you can wind up keeping a stud, or at least a solid starter, at a steep discount for years. The secret is finding the right diamond-in-the-rough players.
I'm thinking of guys who'd meet this criteria:
- Available in the late rounds of a draft (i.e. minimal or no perceived value to start the season)
- Strong possibility of a significant increase in value by this time next year
- Young enough to be worth keeping for several years if they turn out to be a hit
It's not really the same thing as your everyday "sleeper" since you're not as worried about this year -- you're buying a lottery ticket for next year and maybe beyond. Typically you'd look for QB and RBs who start the year as backups but can earn a starting job by next season, either through a promotion or by switching teams. It could also include WRs who signicantly outperform their projected stats.
Some examples from the past:
- MJD and Vince Young last year, as well as Matt Schaub and maybe Brandon Jacobs in smaller leagues
- Willie Parker two years ago, in leagues that drafted before he was named starter
- Chester Taylor in his last year with the Ravens
- Steven Jackson in his rookie year when Faulk was still the undisputed starter
- Larry Johnson during Priest's heyday
- Clinton Portis may be the all-time king of this type of player
Obviously a lot of this depends heavily on the individual league's rules and size (a great keeper pick in a 10-team league may be long-gone in a 16-teamer), but let's see what we can come up with.
Some thoughts to kick it off...
Quarterbacks
This is usually the easiest position to find these types of players in: just look for that year's first round picks, since they rarely start out of the gate but occasionally will take over the #1 job by the end of the year. So Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell would go on the list.
What about David Carr? Probably forgotten in most leagues until the late rounds if at all, but a decent chance to take over the starter's job and has some nice weapons available in Carolina.
Beyond that... not sure. I think the ship has already sailed for Aaron Rodgers, even if Favre retired today I don't know that the Packers view him as a long-term solution. Cleo Lemon could fit although Beck makes me wonder.
Running backs
The top rookies like Lynch and Peterson don't qualify since they already have enough value to be taken in the early rounds, and I think Michael Turner is probably too valuable as an LT handcuff to be around in the late rounds. Similar situation for Betts. Mike Bell could qualify but I think most people are wise to the idea of hoarding Denver RBs just in case.
I do think Brandon Jackson would be an excellent pick in smaller leagues if Morency wins the job in GB before your draft. Jerious Norwood comes to mind too but I think the word is already out on him. I do like Chris Henry in Tennessee, though.
Is Justin Fargas worth thinking about here? What about Leon Washington?
Wide receivers
I'm having a hard time coming up with anyone. Calvin Johnson is going too high already. Maybe Dwayne Jarrett? Anthony Gonzalez could shoot up in value if Harrison ever retired. And as crazy as it sounds, if Mike Williams ever got his head on straight... nah.
Anyways, there's a few names to get it started. Who's on your list?
