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Perfect Draft 12 Team Released (1 Viewer)

David Dodds

David Dodds

Administrator
Perfect Draft

This thing kills me every year as I try and dump what's floating in my head to try and create a generic drafting plan. I am pretty pleased with this year's effort. I have created a new Top 300, but it won't appear on the website until the morning. I will link it to the article when it is formatted and ready to go.

Perfect Draft articles featuring 10 team, 14 team, auction and WCOFF formats will all appear next week. I plan to have two of these done and posted on Monday.

Enjoy.

 
Based on average draft position (ADP) data, the trend continues in 2007 for fantasy owners to overpay for the elite quarterbacks. Fifteen quarterbacks are "expected" to be drafted in the first 100 picks. Let me repeat that so it sinks in. One fourth of the teams will take their SECOND quarterback by the middle of the 9th round.
Click to expand...
it's late, and i'm a little drunk, but this doesn't seem to make sense to me. just because ADP says 15 QBs go in the first 100 picks, does that reallly indicate that 15 will go in the top 100 in a particular draft? I would think no, and that this has more to do with the variability of the QBs ranked in the 7-15 range.regardless, thanks for the work DD :thumbup:
 
joffer said:
Based on average draft position (ADP) data, the trend continues in 2007 for fantasy owners to overpay for the elite quarterbacks. Fifteen quarterbacks are "expected" to be drafted in the first 100 picks. Let me repeat that so it sinks in. One fourth of the teams will take their SECOND quarterback by the middle of the 9th round.
Click to expand...
it's late, and i'm a little drunk, but this doesn't seem to make sense to me. just because ADP says 15 QBs go in the first 100 picks, does that reallly indicate that 15 will go in the top 100 in a particular draft? I would think no, and that this has more to do with the variability of the QBs ranked in the 7-15 range.regardless, thanks for the work DD :rant:
Click to expand...
JOFFE....IN MY LEAGUE THAT happens
 
David Dodds said:
Perfect Draft

This thing kills me every year as I try and dump what's floating in my head to try and create a generic drafting plan. I am pretty pleased with this year's effort. I have created a new Top 300, but it won't appear on the website until the morning. I will link it to the article when it is formatted and ready to go.

Perfect Draft articles featuring 10 team, 14 team, auction and WCOFF formats will all appear next week. I plan to have two of these done and posted on Monday.

Enjoy.
Click to expand...
Great job as usual David. How about workin on that 14-teamer next :rant:
 
it's late, and i'm a little drunk, but this doesn't seem to make sense to me. just because ADP says 15 QBs go in the first 100 picks, does that reallly indicate that 15 will go in the top 100 in a particular draft? I would think no, and that this has more to do with the variability of the QBs ranked in the 7-15 range.
Click to expand...
One may think no, but it's happening. Happened in one of my 12 team PPR leagues. By the beginning of round 10, thirteen QBs were gone. In another there were 11 taken by about the same point. It seems silly to me.
 
Quick question for David:

How many rounds are you assuming the draft is?

For example, for a certain group of elite defenses (trying not to give away subscriber content :thumbup: )

you say you should grab one if they're there in round 12 or later. Well my draft is only 14 rounds, so it's

safe to assume that the elite D's will probably start going around round 7 or 8. I'd like to know how many

rounds you're assuming with your article so I can have a basic "mental multiplier" to apply your

thoughts to my league.

thanks in advance.

 
Goos job and great advice.

Its tough in Detroit to target Kitna in round 7. He'll be long gone by then. And this is one year I wouldnt mind having the Lions QB

 
Obviously there are hundreds of different types of leagues with different scoring systems and different team owners. I'm sure Dodds doesn't expect everyone to follow this format exactly as he lays it out, it is just more of a concept to keep in mind and modify it to your league's individual traits and rules.

As an example, he suggests passing on TE1 Gates along with the other top tier tight ends. This is one of those things that really screws with me because the DD suggests that Gates has a VBD of 53 at 3.1 compared to VBD 24 of the next RB. If you saw this, wouldn't you think that grabbing Gates is a no brainer. Well, Dodds says don't do it. But wow, it's hard to resist. Right?

As it turns out, using DD as the draft tool, I end up with a much stronger team and actually win my games by an even greater margin (according to the Game by Game Projections) when I pass on Gates. It just goes to show that DD is only a tool, but it is the human element that really is the weapon.

Thanks David for reminding me about that.

 
joey said:
Quick question for David:How many rounds are you assuming the draft is?For example, for a certain group of elite defenses (trying not to give away subscriber content :no: )you say you should grab one if they're there in round 12 or later. Well my draft is only 14 rounds, so it'ssafe to assume that the elite D's will probably start going around round 7 or 8. I'd like to know how manyrounds you're assuming with your article so I can have a basic "mental multiplier" to apply yourthoughts to my league.thanks in advance.
Click to expand...
I am assuming an 18 round draft
 
DerwoodG said:
Obviously there are hundreds of different types of leagues with different scoring systems and different team owners. I'm sure Dodds doesn't expect everyone to follow this format exactly as he lays it out, it is just more of a concept to keep in mind and modify it to your league's individual traits and rules.As an example, he suggests passing on TE1 Gates along with the other top tier tight ends. This is one of those things that really screws with me because the DD suggests that Gates has a VBD of 53 at 3.1 compared to VBD 24 of the next RB. If you saw this, wouldn't you think that grabbing Gates is a no brainer. Well, Dodds says don't do it. But wow, it's hard to resist. Right?As it turns out, using DD as the draft tool, I end up with a much stronger team and actually win my games by an even greater margin (according to the Game by Game Projections) when I pass on Gates. It just goes to show that DD is only a tool, but it is the human element that really is the weapon.Thanks David for reminding me about that.
Click to expand...
I have always wanted to write the Anti-Gates article, but never have. The premise of this is as follows:- Yes VBD always loves him because he does outscore his peers by a wide margin.- The gap between the price of TE1 and TE10 is significant. TE1 costs you a 4th round pick. TE10 can be had in round 11. So the issue to whether Gates is worth it has to reflect that deep discount if you pass on him. My plan with the article was to walk through some drafts where Gates went real close to one of my picks and show the different teams that would have been yielded by pulling the trigger on Gates or passing. My gut tells me that passing is best, but I would like to show it with projected fantasy points.This is actually true of all positions where you just play 1 starter (QB, TE, PK and Def) in leagues where you have to start multiple RBs and WRs (ie 2 RBs, w WRs and a flex). Again my gut tells me that the best draft is maximized by waiting because people will hold off on these positions once they grab their initial starter. This creates a lull (and adds value) before people start selecting their backups here.The ultimate way to do this study would be to use AVT 3-year data. Lots on my plate this second though so doubtful I can finish this.David
 
David Dodds said:
DerwoodG said:
Obviously there are hundreds of different types of leagues with different scoring systems and different team owners. I'm sure Dodds doesn't expect everyone to follow this format exactly as he lays it out, it is just more of a concept to keep in mind and modify it to your league's individual traits and rules.As an example, he suggests passing on TE1 Gates along with the other top tier tight ends. This is one of those things that really screws with me because the DD suggests that Gates has a VBD of 53 at 3.1 compared to VBD 24 of the next RB. If you saw this, wouldn't you think that grabbing Gates is a no brainer. Well, Dodds says don't do it. But wow, it's hard to resist. Right?As it turns out, using DD as the draft tool, I end up with a much stronger team and actually win my games by an even greater margin (according to the Game by Game Projections) when I pass on Gates. It just goes to show that DD is only a tool, but it is the human element that really is the weapon.Thanks David for reminding me about that.
Click to expand...
I have always wanted to write the Anti-Gates article, but never have. The premise of this is as follows:- Yes VBD always loves him because he does outscore his peers by a wide margin.- The gap between the price of TE1 and TE10 is significant. TE1 costs you a 4th round pick. TE10 can be had in round 11. So the issue to whether Gates is worth it has to reflect that deep discount if you pass on him. My plan with the article was to walk through some drafts where Gates went real close to one of my picks and show the different teams that would have been yielded by pulling the trigger on Gates or passing. My gut tells me that passing is best, but I would like to show it with projected fantasy points.This is actually true of all positions where you just play 1 starter (QB, TE, PK and Def) in leagues where you have to start multiple RBs and WRs (ie 2 RBs, w WRs and a flex). Again my gut tells me that the best draft is maximized by waiting because people will hold off on these positions once they grab their initial starter. This creates a lull (and adds value) before people start selecting their backups here.The ultimate way to do this study would be to use AVT 3-year data. Lots on my plate this second though so doubtful I can finish this.David
Click to expand...
I've always had much more success waiting on TE's. I find that it is MUCH more important to have depth at the key positions. The past few years in my big 14-teamer, the guy with Gates has traded him by week 9 for a decent RB or WR. Drafting Gates in Rd 3 pays off only if all of your top guys at the key positions pan out IMO, and that rarely happens.
 
I just finished a draft the other day and I notice that I drafted most of the guys that are mentioned in the article. :thumbup:

 
David Dodds said:
joey said:
Quick question for David:How many rounds are you assuming the draft is?For example, for a certain group of elite defenses (trying not to give away subscriber content :thumbup: )you say you should grab one if they're there in round 12 or later. Well my draft is only 14 rounds, so it'ssafe to assume that the elite D's will probably start going around round 7 or 8. I'd like to know how manyrounds you're assuming with your article so I can have a basic "mental multiplier" to apply yourthoughts to my league.thanks in advance.
Click to expand...
I am assuming an 18 round draft
Click to expand...
Would your draft round suggestions change much in a 14 round draft (I'm assuming the D, at the very least, would move up)?
 
GDogg said:
David Dodds said:
joey said:
Quick question for David:How many rounds are you assuming the draft is?For example, for a certain group of elite defenses (trying not to give away subscriber content :shrug: )you say you should grab one if they're there in round 12 or later. Well my draft is only 14 rounds, so it'ssafe to assume that the elite D's will probably start going around round 7 or 8. I'd like to know how manyrounds you're assuming with your article so I can have a basic "mental multiplier" to apply yourthoughts to my league.thanks in advance.
Click to expand...
I am assuming an 18 round draft
Click to expand...
Would your draft round suggestions change much in a 14 round draft (I'm assuming the D, at the very least, would move up)?
Click to expand...
I would imagine the suggestions would have to change a bit to take into accountthat all owners have 4 less rounds of depth to draft, so I'd think that D's and K's,especially, will go early. Basically, I'm goning to mentally adjust David's suggestionsby about 3/4 to apply his suggestions to my league.So, I'd target elite D around round 8 or 9 instead of round 12. I'd also target one ofthe suggested QBs a round earlier than his suggestions in my draft.Of course, this isn't set in stone in my mind. It's just a loose guideline (just like David's articleis a loose guideline).
 
Good article. It would be interesting to see you write two other articles that are based upon different league rules. One league that uses 1 ppr and another that uses 1 ppr for WR/TE only. Again, it would be very interesting to see how that article would compare to this one. Good job David.

 
David Dodds said:
Perfect Draft

This thing kills me every year as I try and dump what's floating in my head to try and create a generic drafting plan. I am pretty pleased with this year's effort. I have created a new Top 300, but it won't appear on the website until the morning. I will link it to the article when it is formatted and ready to go.

Perfect Draft articles featuring 10 team, 14 team, auction and WCOFF formats will all appear next week. I plan to have two of these done and posted on Monday.

Enjoy.
Click to expand...
Can a repeat customer get a revised ETA for the 10 teamer?
 
greedygoat said:
David Dodds said:
Perfect Draft

This thing kills me every year as I try and dump what's floating in my head to try and create a generic drafting plan. I am pretty pleased with this year's effort. I have created a new Top 300, but it won't appear on the website until the morning. I will link it to the article when it is formatted and ready to go.

Perfect Draft articles featuring 10 team, 14 team, auction and WCOFF formats will all appear next week. I plan to have two of these done and posted on Monday.

Enjoy.
Click to expand...
Can a repeat customer get a revised ETA for the 10 teamer?
Click to expand...
:unsure: My 10 team draft is tonite...was hoping to see something by now...

 
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