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Larry Johnson Responds to the 400 Carry Concerns (1 Viewer)

B

bocksheesh

Footballguy
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.

 
bocksheesh said:
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :lmao:
 
switz said:
bocksheesh said:
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
Doesn't he not play in the offseason? Doesn't the human body heal in the offseason? I know the statistics point towards RBs after 400 touch seasons doing poorly the next, but statistics are merely a guideline and should not be a nail in the coffin. He knows his body better than any of us, and while I suspect that his statement is influenced by his lack of a contract, I also think he's serious in that his body isn't breaking down anytime soon.
 
I love the 400 carry theory. I do see other concerns on the team but 400 carries does not bother me. Let him slide to me and I will gladly take him.

 
switz said:
bocksheesh said:
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
give it a rest man..he's right about what he says.he knows himself better than you do. guys like C-mart and others that were close to 400 carries in a season, were 4-yr starters in college, and HS, and had a lot of tread on the tires, already. Jamal Anderson being the exception,and his was a freak injury due to the carpet-over-cement in Atl..

LT HAS 2050 CARRIES AND 398 CATCHES to his name..if you think LJ is overworked because he had 400+ carries one season, I'd LOVE to hear what you think about LT , then..

actually, I don't, I already know.you're one of those guys who criticizes LJ , yet views LT as a football god.. :yes:

 
nygiants56 said:
switz said:
bocksheesh said:
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
give it a rest man..he's right about what he says.he knows himself better than you do. guys like C-mart and others that were close to 400 carries in a season, were 4-yr starters in college, and HS, and had a lot of tread on the tires, already. Jamal Anderson being the exception,and his was a freak injury due to the carpet-over-cement in Atl..

LT HAS 2050 CARRIES AND 398 CATCHES to his name..if you think LJ is overworked because he had 400+ carries one season, I'd LOVE to hear what you think about LT , then..

actually, I don't, I already know.you're one of those guys who criticizes LJ , yet views LT as a football god.. :yes:
Click to expand...
I personally don't think the 400 carries is as big as others make it out to be (though it does concern me). My objection was to his "spreading it out over his career." Your body does not "spread things out" over your lifetime.Johnson's stats will probably decline this season, more due to regression to the mean and the KC surrounding cast. I'm sure someone in the futrue will refer back and use that as evidence of the "400 carry rule" too.

As for your last comment that I italicized - no you don't because you don't know me at all.

 
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What else do you expect him to say? Something like "Yeah i carried the ball over 400 times. I wake up everyday in a little more pain than the previous. I'm not really into contact, so I'd prefer if they brought in another back to steal carries and touchdowns. Also, if my load is lightened, my stat line goes down and then Mr Peterson won't have to pay me as the highest back in the league. So to answer your question, 400 carries is too much."

 
switz said:
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :hifive:
Click to expand...
Kind of like those folks who insist that if you have a week of bad sleep you need to "make it up" later.
 
switz said:
bocksheesh said:
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :lmao:
Click to expand...
Even if you did 81,000 situps yeaterday, I would imagine 8 months later your abs would feel just fine.Personally, I'm not quite getting the analogy.

 
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you.

Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.

I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.

We'll see.

J

 
The NFL could come out and tell us LJ's a cyborg and some FBG's will still think up reasons why he'll fail to be top 5. :thumbup:

 
I love LJ and think he'll still be a great RB in fantasy football. That said, I do not think he will be as good going forward (statistically) as he has been in the past. For the record, I feel the same way about Tomlinson.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
I can bet Davis would have been solid for a few years longer if not for his injury.. I don't think his wear played a factor in an ACL tear. We all know it just can happen and very rarely are you ever the same. If we are talking wear we will be talking somebody like Jamal Lewis. Where he has lost his burst and obviously his workload is catching up.. I don't hear anything about LJ losing his explosivenss. If we want to believe the touches is a factor we might as well believe the Madden curse while we are at it,.. :lmao:
 
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
Yes, the "football shape"factor is a concern far more than 400 injury metric. I will also that tied to concern over a slow start and needing to steer clear of injury is KC's first few games. After a (theoretically) easy matchup against HOU in Week 1, they get Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville.That is BRUTAL.No one is really talking about this with LJ. But that early schedule is deadly - particularly if the Chiefs start slow and particularly if LJ is trying to ease into the season over the first few weeks.The schedule and that KC OLine. Those are the two big concerns I have with LJ. The 400 carries are not a concern.Love LJ. But leaning towards Gore at #3. Can you talk me out of it, Mr. Bryant?
 
bocksheesh said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
Yes, the "football shape"factor is a concern far more than 400 injury metric. I will also that tied to concern over a slow start and needing to steer clear of injury is KC's first few games. After a (theoretically) easy matchup against HOU in Week 1, they get Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville.That is BRUTAL.No one is really talking about this with LJ. But that early schedule is deadly - particularly if the Chiefs start slow and particularly if LJ is trying to ease into the season over the first few weeks.The schedule and that KC OLine. Those are the two big concerns I have with LJ. The 400 carries are not a concern.Love LJ. But leaning towards Gore at #3. Can you talk me out of it, Mr. Bryant?
Click to expand...
You shouldn't want anybody to talk you out of it. The schedule is an enormous part of the equation but gets hardly any discussion because "defenses vary so much year to year." Well, everything varies year to year, but I don't think defenses do any more than o-lines, body conditioning, offensive chemistry and coaching philosophy. Those are nasty defensive lines right there, and to expect LJ to be putting up the yardage people are accustomed to during that stretch is not logical. If you're willing to put up with it and let your team fall into a hole early on then go for it. Gore, on the other hand, has a ton of cake on his schedule, and is on an offense that is growing, not declining. His output week-to-week should be much more beneficial than Johnson's.
 
bocksheesh said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you.

Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.

I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.

We'll see.

J
Click to expand...
Yes, the "football shape"factor is a concern far more than 400 injury metric. I will also that tied to concern over a slow start and needing to steer clear of injury is KC's first few games. After a (theoretically) easy matchup against HOU in Week 1, they get Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville.That is BRUTAL.

No one is really talking about this with LJ. But that early schedule is deadly - particularly if the Chiefs start slow and particularly if LJ is trying to ease into the season over the first few weeks.

The schedule and that KC OLine. Those are the two big concerns I have with LJ. The 400 carries are not a concern.

Love LJ. But leaning towards Gore at #3. Can you talk me out of it, Mr. Bryant?
Click to expand...
I agree it looks brutal, but it's hard to gauge what Johnson will do against a high ranked Defense. He was killed against SF last season yet did pretty well against the tough ones..DEN: 167 yds, 5 rec

PIT: 32 yds, 3 rec, 1 TD (bad performance)

SD: 164 yds, 2 rec, 2 TD

MIA: 89 yds, 2 rec, 1 TD

DEN: 163 yds, 1 rec, 1 TD

BAL: 124 yds, 1 rec

SD: 93 yds, 3 rec (not so hot)

JAX: 160 yds, 5 rec, 3 TD

*all yards are total yards.

I think it's tough to say since he'll sputter against some weaker D's who play him right and succeed against some tougher competition. (That's why you never bench your studs. ;) ) Let's also not forget the decrease in workload this season. ...may keep him fresh, may also hurt his overall stats.

LJ's week 14-16 looks like this... @DEN, TEN, @DET :bestboratvoice: VERY NICE.

All things considered, if you're not threatened by last season's 400 carries I'd take LJ over Gore in a heartbeat.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
Hellfire Snail said:
bocksheesh said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
Yes, the "football shape"factor is a concern far more than 400 injury metric. I will also that tied to concern over a slow start and needing to steer clear of injury is KC's first few games. After a (theoretically) easy matchup against HOU in Week 1, they get Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville.That is BRUTAL.No one is really talking about this with LJ. But that early schedule is deadly - particularly if the Chiefs start slow and particularly if LJ is trying to ease into the season over the first few weeks.The schedule and that KC OLine. Those are the two big concerns I have with LJ. The 400 carries are not a concern.Love LJ. But leaning towards Gore at #3. Can you talk me out of it, Mr. Bryant?
Click to expand...
You shouldn't want anybody to talk you out of it. The schedule is an enormous part of the equation but gets hardly any discussion because "defenses vary so much year to year." Well, everything varies year to year, but I don't think defenses do any more than o-lines, body conditioning, offensive chemistry and coaching philosophy. Those are nasty defensive lines right there, and to expect LJ to be putting up the yardage people are accustomed to during that stretch is not logical. If you're willing to put up with it and let your team fall into a hole early on then go for it. Gore, on the other hand, has a ton of cake on his schedule, and is on an offense that is growing, not declining. His output week-to-week should be much more beneficial than Johnson's.
Click to expand...
We've got Gore at #4 slightly behind Johnson at 3. So I would go with LJ. But I wouldn't try to talk you out of Gore at 3 if you felt good about it. The huge worry for me with Gore is his injury history. I know all the talk that it's tough to do the "track record" thing with injury but he makes me nervous. Not to say I'm not nervous putting Johnson at #3. But if it were me, I'd go with Larry Johnson at 3 and keep my fingers crossed he gets into Football shape fast.J
 
One said:
The NFL could come out and tell us LJ's a cyborg and some FBG's will still think up reasons why he'll fail to be top 5. :lmao:
Click to expand...
Hey I just traded R.Bush for Johnson in my Dynasty league and I have some concerns myself. Mostly for reasons stated here. I think he is a near lock for top ten this year but I understand the concerns many folks may have taking him in the top five. My question would then be who after LT does not have some question mark this season. Addai has given us a few glimpses of his potential but he has not proven the carry the load over th whole season. Gore "The Beast" broke his hand and resembles the bionic man, Westbrook is Westbrook, Rudi seemed to decline a little last year, Jackson - Jackson's pretty damn good so theres your number 2. I dont know man, KC O-Line and all....... I still like Johnson in the top 5 I'm just thinking LT, Jackson, Gore, Rudi, L.Jonson, then Addai. So I guess if I'm picking number 5, I would have to take LJ. Rudi before Johnson simply due to the consistancy week to week and Kenny Irons on the PUP this year. I think LJ has the potential to end up as the top back this year, with risk and lots of it.
 
LHUCKS said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Hits in HS and College are not the same as hit in the NFL. I am more worried about him missing training camp on top of the 400 carries. He already admitted himself that he won't be ready for week 1. It would be interesting to see a statistical study, but I would bet that guys who hold out in training camp have a much higher chance of serious injury during the season.
 
There are two prevailing theories at work here, and frankly LJ's relatively abnormal playing history makes it very difficult to see which one figures to be more relevant here:

1) The standard "400 Carries Theory" - 400 NFL carries is more or less of an absolute tipping point for the human body, which by reaching requires an extended amount of healing and recovery time that virtually by definition will negatively impact the player's performance the following year. Essentially nothing can be done to prevent this, and in fact the negative effects for many such RB's are permanent.

2) The alternative/exception to the 400 carries theory - The RB's who have carried the ball 400 times in a given season have almost universally been starters and primary ball carriers for their teams for many years, perhaps dating back well into their high school careers. In essence, the 400 carries they got in their NFL season is a culmination of all of their hard work and value to their teams given that only elite or near-elite RB's get that much work, and therefore the fact that they got 400 carries is no more important than the accumulation of work they've gotten up to that point. In essence, 400 carries is nothing more than the proverbial straw that brok the camel's back.

Honestly, LJ is an unusual case for the reasons he stated. I truly don't know which of these theories more accurately describes his situation this year. Remember a couple of more things: he's older than the average 4th year starting RB because he left college older, and the very fact that he missed so much training camp could also be seen as a negative (I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return, though the counter is that he avoided more pounding by holding out). He's an interesting test case for the theory.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
switz said:
bocksheesh said:
Take it for what it's worth, but the man himself gave some insight into his concerns about following up this season after last seasons 400+ carries.

Q: What are your concerns in regards to getting 416 carries last year?

JOHNSON: “I really don’t have any concerns because I’m different from the other backs that touched it 400 times. Those guys were four-year starters in college and they were probably four-year starters in high school and they came into the league and they were already touching the football a lot. Me, I’m a different case because I only played one full year in college before I got drafted and I’ve only played one full year now. So if you take those carries and spread them out over the years I’ve been in KC it kind of evens out to 200 or 300 touches a season. People think I take a lot of punishment, but it’s not necessarily true. When you’re dishing it out most of the time, trust me in the fourth quarter I’m not taking as much punishment as people see. It looks brutal on TV, but it’s never as bad as it seems.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/08/22/qa...y_johnson__822/

It can certainly be argued that "what else is LJ going to say", but at the same time, he gives an articulate and persuasive answer. The guy knows his body, and if he were truly concerned about it, you'd expect to hear him say something to the effect of: "I can still carry the load and plan to. Although I expect Coach Edwards will reduce my carries a bit and find other ways of getting me the ball." Or something like that.

But LJ just said: it's no big deal.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't know why my abs hurt so much. I did 81000 situps yesterday, but I mean, if you spread it over my whole life since I always have used my abdominals, that's like less than one sit up per day. :lmao:
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:lmao:
 
az_prof said:
LHUCKS said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
Hits in HS and College are not the same as hit in the NFL. I am more worried about him missing training camp on top of the 400 carries. He already admitted himself that he won't be ready for week 1. It would be interesting to see a statistical study, but I would bet that guys who hold out in training camp have a much higher chance of serious injury during the season.
Click to expand...
Hi AZ,What link / story are you basing the "not ready for week 1" on? I'm hearing things contrary to that. J
 
Joe Bryant said:
az_prof said:
LHUCKS said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
Hits in HS and College are not the same as hit in the NFL. I am more worried about him missing training camp on top of the 400 carries. He already admitted himself that he won't be ready for week 1. It would be interesting to see a statistical study, but I would bet that guys who hold out in training camp have a much higher chance of serious injury during the season.
Click to expand...
Hi AZ,What link / story are you basing the "not ready for week 1" on? I'm hearing things contrary to that. J
Click to expand...
Per Rotoworld:Larry Johnson told the AP Wednesday that he doesn't think he'll be ready for a full workload in time for the Chiefs' regular-season opener.Johnson doesn't expect to be in full football-playing shape by September 9, when Kansas City squares off against Houston. "What I know about myself is I've never been a fast starter coming out of the blocks in a season," he said. We still wouldn't hesitate to start L.J. in such a favorable matchup.The above may be what he was referring to.
 
Larry Johnson not sure he'll be ready by opening day

Associated Press

This is the article I see quoted most on the "not ready ready for week 1" But the bold comments stand out to me.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- His 25-day holdout made Larry Johnson the most highly paid player in Kansas City Chiefs history. The Pro Bowl running back is not sure, however, if it will make him ready for a full role in the season opener.

Asked Wednesday if he thought he'd be 100 percent ready by Sept. 9 when the Chiefs open at Houston, Johnson said, "No, it'll take a little bit more than that."

"Obviously, coaches are going to do a great job trying to get me on track to where week two or week three of the season I can hit my full stride," he said. "I'm going to try pick up as fast as I can."

The 27-year-old running back appears to be in top shape after working out twice a day in Arizona while his teammates went through training camp in River Falls, Wis. He signed a five-year contract extension on Tuesday, extending his commitment for five years beyond 2007. Just minutes later, he ran onto the practice field to the cheers of teammates who hadn't expected to see him.

The deal includes a guaranteed $19 million. He would receive $27.7 million in the first three years of the extension.

Many think that taking off during camp and the first three exhibition games could prove beneficial after Johnson carried an NFL-record 416 times last year.

"What I know about myself is I've never been a fast starter coming out of the blocks in a season," he said. "I've always been -- the last eight games is when I really turn it on. So I'm going to push myself as hard as I can to try to even it out."

He's not ready to say absolutely he won't be at full speed by Sept. 9.

"It all depends on how I'm feeling. Of course, the adrenaline takes over," he said. "You're excited about playing. So we'll see. It all depends on what type of game we'll get ourselves into.

"It will come in due time. My legs are as fresh as can be right now. It will all help me when it comes to the last week of the season."
Click to expand...
 
Joe Bryant said:
I wouldn't try to talk you out of Gore at 3 if you felt good about it. The huge worry for me with Gore is his injury history. I know all the talk that it's tough to do the "track record" thing with injury but he makes me nervous. Not to say I'm not nervous putting Johnson at #3. But if it were me, I'd go with Larry Johnson at 3 and keep my fingers crossed he gets into Football shape fast.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I find it humorous to see people downgrade Johnson because he had 400 carries last year and they expect him to break down and in the next breath tell you they've got Gore ahead of him. Gore - who's already injured.Getting too many carries too often will lead to trouble at some point. A guy Johnson reminds me of is Earl Campbell. Earl did indeed completely fall apart early in his carreer due to his running style and overuse. It took 4 years of 302, 368, 373, 361 carries for that to happen. Earl still came back for one more fantastic year before he totally fell off the table.I think Johnson will be o.k. for another year or two.Johnson == #2 this year.
 
Colin Dowling said:
I love LJ and think he'll still be a great RB in fantasy football. That said, I do not think he will be as good going forward (statistically) as he has been in the past. For the record, I feel the same way about Tomlinson.
Click to expand...
While likely true, they're still the top 2-3 RB's to choose. The odds of LT, LJ and Jackson doing as well aren't as likely as they will not do as well. But that's still better than the other options. :goodposting:
 
Hellfire Snail said:
bocksheesh said:
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks for the link bock. I'd agree totally it's about Johnson and how he feels. An underrated part of being a world class athlete as Johnson is is the ability to interpret the feedback your body is giving you. Of course it's not exactly the same as "mileage" on your car as the body heals itself and your car doesn't but there are some similarities. I can remember Terrell Davis saying similar things about how not playing much at Georgia was actually a big plus for him as he didn't have the accumulated injuries and nicks that a guy that starts 3 years in a big college conference would have.I personally am not worried about Johnson and the carries. I'm more worried about him tweaking a hamstring in week 1 trying to do too much without being in "football shape". As hard as he worked at API, it's not the same as being in River Falls.We'll see.J
Click to expand...
Yes, the "football shape"factor is a concern far more than 400 injury metric. I will also that tied to concern over a slow start and needing to steer clear of injury is KC's first few games. After a (theoretically) easy matchup against HOU in Week 1, they get Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville.That is BRUTAL.No one is really talking about this with LJ. But that early schedule is deadly - particularly if the Chiefs start slow and particularly if LJ is trying to ease into the season over the first few weeks.The schedule and that KC OLine. Those are the two big concerns I have with LJ. The 400 carries are not a concern.Love LJ. But leaning towards Gore at #3. Can you talk me out of it, Mr. Bryant?
Click to expand...
You shouldn't want anybody to talk you out of it. The schedule is an enormous part of the equation but gets hardly any discussion because "defenses vary so much year to year." Well, everything varies year to year, but I don't think defenses do any more than o-lines, body conditioning, offensive chemistry and coaching philosophy. Those are nasty defensive lines right there, and to expect LJ to be putting up the yardage people are accustomed to during that stretch is not logical. If you're willing to put up with it and let your team fall into a hole early on then go for it. Gore, on the other hand, has a ton of cake on his schedule, and is on an offense that is growing, not declining. His output week-to-week should be much more beneficial than Johnson's.
Click to expand...
Based your concerns you'd have to avoid LT as well as he faces many of the same teams...right? I think the best point you made was that you easily predict what other teams are going to do. Avoiding a stud RB because he's going against some tough defenses is not what I would do. Stud RB's, QB's and WR's are going to produce. Even against tough D's they will get their numbers. Average players however bring these factors more into play IMO. And average player is more likely to be affected by good defenses than great players. Great player find ways to produce. I would not avoid a stud becuase of the defense match ups.
 
redman said:
Joe Bryant said:
The quote from Johnson that stands out to me is more this one:

"If it was up to me, I'd try to play tomorrow"
Click to expand...
J
Click to expand...
Why, for the overall meaning of the quote or for the word "try" in there?
Click to expand...
The overall meaning of the quote.I think people are grabbing a soundbite of what makes news with the LJ not ready for week 1 when they're not reading the entire article or seeing the big picture.J
 
Joe Bryant said:
redman said:
Joe Bryant said:
The quote from Johnson that stands out to me is more this one:

"If it was up to me, I'd try to play tomorrow"
Click to expand...
J
Click to expand...
Why, for the overall meaning of the quote or for the word "try" in there?
Click to expand...
The overall meaning of the quote.I think people are grabbing a soundbite of what makes news with the LJ not ready for week 1 when they're not reading the entire article or seeing the big picture.

J
Click to expand...
week 15 Tenn @ KCweek 16 KC @ Det

 
Honestly, I think LJ is a guy, if you don't draft, you keep your eye on. If he starts "slow" as he says he usually does on ESPN, then he might be pretty cheap if his owner is desperate come week 3 or 4.

 
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
 
redman said:
Steeler said:
WetDream said:
Phlash said:
He knows his body better than any of us
Click to expand...
I beg to differ.
Click to expand...
:shrug:
Click to expand...
It's actually not a ridiculous premise if you are a strict subscriber to the 400 Carry Theory. In other words, despite how good LJ (who has not been in camp at all BTW) feels at the moment, the wear and tear of last season is just too much to for him to overcome this year.
Click to expand...
I wasn't laughing at the comment in the context of fantasy football. I was laughing at "Wet Dream" thinking he knows LJ's body better than anyone else; like perhaps he's studied it in his own personal fantasies. Just a silly FFA thought in the shark pool.
 
Steeler said:
redman said:
Steeler said:
WetDream said:
Phlash said:
He knows his body better than any of us
Click to expand...
I beg to differ.
Click to expand...
:doh:
Click to expand...
It's actually not a ridiculous premise if you are a strict subscriber to the 400 Carry Theory. In other words, despite how good LJ (who has not been in camp at all BTW) feels at the moment, the wear and tear of last season is just too much to for him to overcome this year.
Click to expand...
I wasn't laughing at the comment in the context of fantasy football. I was laughing at "Wet Dream" thinking he knows LJ's body better than anyone else; like perhaps he's studied it in his own personal fantasies. Just a silly FFA thought in the shark pool.
Click to expand...
Wet Dream knows things about the male anatomy. :shrug:
 
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
Click to expand...
The same guys pimpin' Portis to come back all strong and mighty are raving about how LJ is done as a stud. :hey:
 
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
Click to expand...
No, actually, none off the top of my head. It's an impression that I've had before and remember seeing "confirmed" by subsequent, consistent events over the years though. I know that doesn't help you, but that's why I said it.
 
redman said:
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
Click to expand...
No, actually, none off the top of my head. It's an impression that I've had before and remember seeing "confirmed" by subsequent, consistent events over the years though. I know that doesn't help you, but that's why I said it.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is why I got crickets on my thread. People cite this periodically, but no one can seem to back it up. I have to consider it a myth unless we can get some evidence. And even if you came up with one or two guys, it wouldn't be statistically significant anyway.
 
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
Click to expand...
No, actually, none off the top of my head. It's an impression that I've had before and remember seeing "confirmed" by subsequent, consistent events over the years though. I know that doesn't help you, but that's why I said it.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is why I got crickets on my thread. People cite this periodically, but no one can seem to back it up. I have to consider it a myth unless we can get some evidence. And even if you came up with one or two guys, it wouldn't be statistically significant anyway.
Click to expand...
In 1993, Emmitt Smith missed the 1st 2 games of the season due to a contract hold out. Long story short:League MVPRushing TitleSuperBowl MVP
 
Blackstar said:
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
Click to expand...
No, actually, none off the top of my head. It's an impression that I've had before and remember seeing "confirmed" by subsequent, consistent events over the years though. I know that doesn't help you, but that's why I said it.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is why I got crickets on my thread. People cite this periodically, but no one can seem to back it up. I have to consider it a myth unless we can get some evidence. And even if you came up with one or two guys, it wouldn't be statistically significant anyway.
Click to expand...
In 1993, Emmitt Smith missed the 1st 2 games of the season due to a contract hold out. Long story short:League MVPRushing TitleSuperBowl MVP
Click to expand...
That's equally anecdotal and unsystematic, unfortunately. I'll see if I can give some thought to it.
 
redman said:
Blackstar said:
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
Just Win Baby said:
redman said:
I've noted veteran hold-outs often get injured when they return
Click to expand...
Please name some. Can we get to a sample size that is meaningful? I have seen this sort of thing repeatedly cited over the past couple of weeks, and I started a thread to ask for evidence that shows this is not a myth. No one responded with any evidence, though I bumped it back up a few times. Do you have any examples?
Click to expand...
No, actually, none off the top of my head. It's an impression that I've had before and remember seeing "confirmed" by subsequent, consistent events over the years though. I know that doesn't help you, but that's why I said it.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is why I got crickets on my thread. People cite this periodically, but no one can seem to back it up. I have to consider it a myth unless we can get some evidence. And even if you came up with one or two guys, it wouldn't be statistically significant anyway.
Click to expand...
In 1993, Emmitt Smith missed the 1st 2 games of the season due to a contract hold out. Long story short:League MVPRushing TitleSuperBowl MVP
Click to expand...
That's equally anecdotal and unsystematic, unfortunately. I'll see if I can give some thought to it.
Click to expand...
(In my best Jackie Childs voice).... That response is ridiculous... ludicrous... preposterous.
 
well sorry but just as 1 or 2 RBs that holdout and are still great isn't enough, neither is the 6 or so RBs who've had more than 400 carries.

 
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