It's all about opportunity. Look at some of the top "out of nowhere" breakout WRs from the past few years:
Mike Furrey
Brandon Stokley
Jerricho Cotchery
Drew Bennett
Michael Clayton
Anquan Boldin
Marques Colston
Stokley had the benefit of playing for the Colts. They throw the ball enough to make their WR3 valuable, but that's not the case with most teams, so I think we can agree that most WR3s aren't worth tracking as potential 1,000+ yard guys.
Cotchery and Furrey were WR2s who were flying under the radar.
Colston, Boldin, Bennett, and Clayton were WR1s who took advantage of an unexpected opportunity for extra PT. There was no proven WR1 on the Cardinals when Boldin had his breakout year. Joey Galloway was injured when Michael Clayton had his breakout year. Joe Horn was injured and old when Marques Colston had his breakout year. If memory serves me correctly, Derrick Mason may have been injured when Drew Bennett had his hot streak.
When I look for sleeper WRs, I try to identify teams with either unresolved or underrated WR groups. I would classify the Jaguars as an unresolved situation because it's not currently clear who their WR1 will be. I would classify the Raiders as an underrated WR group because none of their WRs are currently ranked in the top 20. Here are some situations that are either unresolved or underrated:
Titans
Vikings
Jaguars
Eagles
Bears
Browns
Ravens
Falcons
Raiders
Chiefs
Chargers
These teams look like some of the best bets to produce a breakout WR in 2007. So let's look at the depth charts:
Titans - Moulds, Jones, Williams, Roby
Vikings - Wade, Williamson, Rice, Ferguson
Jaguars - Williams, Jones, Northcutt, Walker, Wilford
Eagles - Brown, Curtis, Baskett
Bears - Berrian, Muhammad, Bradley
Browns - Edwards, Jurevicius, Carter
Ravens - Clayton, Mason, Williams
Falcons - Horn, White, Robinson, Jenkins
Raiders - Curry, Porter, Gabriel
Chiefs - Kennison, Bowe, Parker, Webb
Chargers - Jackson, Davis, Parker
All of the aforementioned players have the opportunity to outperform expectations and produce big numbers. That brings me to my second point. Which of these WRs have the talent? Boldin, Clayton, Colston, Cotchery, and Bennett weren't just in the right place at the right time. They were also decent talents.
Let's take a closer look at each team and try to figure out who has the talent to excel:
Titans - Moulds, Jones, Williams, Roby
Moulds is a decent player, but his skills are probably declining. He seems more likely to have a quiet 700-900 yard season than to be a big time scorer. Williams and Roby are intriguing, but their lack of production to date is a concern. You'd think they would've shown more by now. It's not like they've had tough competition for touches in Tennessee. That leaves Brandon Jones as my pick to be the breakout candidate here. He seemingly has more talent than Roby and Williams since he was higher than them on the depth chart prior to his injury. He was a third round pick, suggesting that he's talented enough to start in the NFL. Unlike Moulds, he's in the prime of his career.
Vikings - Wade, Williamson, Rice, Ferguson
Yuck. Wade is a journeyman who has never been overly impressive at any point in his NFL career. Though a decent college player, he was not a high draft pick. Based on his previous performance and pedigree, there is little reason to believe he's going to step up. Ferguson was never able to produce a decent season in Green Bay. This is an inferior situation. That leaves Troy Williamson and Sidney Rice as the breakout candidates in Minnesota. Both guys were early draft picks who appear to have the necessary physical talent to start in the NFL. If Minnesota is going to produce a useful FF WR this season, it will probably be one of these two guys.
Jaguars - Williams, Jones, Northcutt, Walker, Wilford
Yuck again. Northcutt is a solid player and a former early draft pick, but his production has always been pretty mediocre throughout his career. Wilford is an unspectacular journeyman. If he was going to break out, he probably would've done it by now. Reggie Williams and Matt Jones are former first round picks with intriguing size/speed numbers, but neither has been impressive in training camp and neither has produced much to this point in his career. Mike Walker has been a gem in training camp, but is only a rookie.
Wilford doesn't have a chance. And although Walker has had a good camp, it seems unlikely that a playoff contender like the Jags will be willing to rely on him as a starter. Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, and Dennis Northcutt all seem to have a realistic chance of leading this team in receiving yards. All three are breakout candidates.
Eagles - Brown, Curtis, Baskett
Ahhh, finally some good players. Reggie Brown is a former second round pick who has produced solid numbers in his brief career. Kevin Curtis is a former third round pick who showed flashes in St. Louis. I think both players are breakout candidates.
Bears - Berrian, Muhammad, Bradley
Muhammad is on the decline. Bradley is talented, but he can't stay healthy and is clearly behind the others on the depth chart. Bernard Berrian is the obvious breakout candidate here.
Browns - Edwards, Jurevicius, Carter
This is another slam dunk situation. Jurevicius is what he is. Carter has speed and a decent pedigree, but he's the WR3 for now and he has never produced much in the NFL. Unless this team throws the ball a ton, Braylon Edwards is the only breakout candidate worth following.
Ravens - Clayton, Mason, Williams
Demetrius Williams showed potential last season, but he'll likely be relegated to the WR3 this season barring injuries. There won't be enough looks to get him more than 500-600 yards. Derrick Mason appears to be on the decline after his great years in Tennessee. Mark Clayton is the WR1 of the future and seemingly of the present. He is the lone breakout candidate on the Ravens.
Falcons - Horn, White, Robinson, Jenkins
Interesting. Former first round pick Michael Jenkins has been completely mediocre in his three year NFL career. There's no indication that he has taken a major step forward, so I think we can rule out the possibility of a breakout season. Joe Horn is old and his numbers have been down in recent years, but he's still a clear starter for the Falcons. Roddy White has a first round pedigree and has reportedly had a solid training camp. Laurent Robinson might be the best WR on the roster, but his lack of experience could delay his breakout.
Raiders - Curry, Porter, Gabriel
Doug Gabriel is the WR3 here. We can rule him out. Ronald Curry is a talented athlete whose solid production has been overshadowed by injuries. Jerry Porter has shown flashes of greatness in between injuries and bouts of whining.
Chiefs - Kennison, Bowe, Parker
Samie Parker was a bust as a starter. His days in the NFL are numbered. Veteran Eddie Kennison and rookie Dwayne Bowe are the two best WRs on the roster. Both have the potential to exceed their ADP.
Chargers - Jackson, Davis, Parker
Eric Parker is nothing more than what he's already shown us. Craig Davis has the talent to surprise, but he's probably a year away from contending for a useful FF season. Vincent Jackson is the best breakout candidate here.
Now that we've trimmed some of the fat, we're left with the following list of breakout candidates:
Brandon Jones
Troy Williamson
Sidney Rice
Dennis Northcutt
Reggie Williams
Matt Jones
Reggie Brown
Kevin Curtis
Bernard Berrian
Braylon Edwards
Mark Clayton
Joe Horn
Roddy White
Laurent Robinson
Jerry Porter
Ronald Curry
Eddie Kennison
Dwayne Bowe
Vincent Jackson
All of these guys have the talent and opportunity to exceed expectations. But can we trim the list a little more? Sure. I'm willing to cut Sidney Rice. Even though he has some talent, he probably won't be more than the second or third option on a weak passing team. This isn't his year.
I'm also cutting Brandon Jones. The Titans are a run-first, run-second team. Maybe Young is the next McNabb, but I think his effect on the WRs will be Vick-like. Also, the team has two capable TEs to vulture catches and scores. Eric Moulds will get his. And while Jones is intriguing, he's probably not an exceptional talent.
I also think we can cut Matt Jones. I know he has made some plays here and there, but the reports I've read say he hasn't improved at all since last season. He's good for a big play here and there, but he's not a polished WR who can be counted on. For that matter, I'm ready to cut Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt. Jacksonville has been a WR graveyard in recent years. I don't think either of these guys is going to change that.
I'm not too high on either of the Kansas City WRs. The Chiefs will be a run-first team as long as LJ is healthy. Tony Gonzalez will be the first option in the passing game. I think the WR pie will be split between Kennison and Bowe. There likely won't be enough to make either more than a weak WR3 for FF purposes.
I like Laurent Robinson and I think it's important to note that he's been receiving a lot of playing time with the first team, but he'll start the season on the bench and probably stay there unless White is awful or Horn gets injured (both definite possibilities).
That leave us with this list:
Troy Williamson
Reggie Brown
Kevin Curtis
Bernard Berrian
Braylon Edwards
Mark Clayton
Joe Horn
Roddy White
Ronald Curry
Jerry Porter
Vincent Jackson
These are some of the top breakout candidates in the NFL. All of them have the talent and opportunity to surprise. My personal pick from this bunch is Berrian. He's the clear WR1 in Chicago. He appears to be an above average NFL talent. Grossman likes to throw it deep to him. He seems poised for a breakout year.
Braylon Edwards is the clear WR1 for the Browns. I think he can have a breakout year as long as they throw the ball enough. The downside with Edwards is that his ADP is already fairly high, so he doesn't really fit the Colston mold.
Clayton, Brown, and Curtis should have good seasons, but they're all being drafted fairly high.
If you're strictly talking a late round flyer who could emerge as a top 20 WR, then I think Roddy White, Ronald Curry, and Troy Williamson are intriguing candidates. Curry is the most accomplished player of this bunch. If he can stay healthy, he has a very real chance at 1,000 yards.
There are also some established WR2s who could step up. Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, and Peerless Price fit this mold. Jacoby Jones could be the second option in Houston. He could have some value.
Actually I left of Demetrius because I have him higher than all of these guys. I think he is the starter in Baltimore ahead of Mason by midseason at the latest.
Actually I left of Demetrius because I have him higher than all of these guys. I think he is the starter in Baltimore ahead of Mason by midseason at the latest.
Drew Carter. Big play specialist at WORST.....starter at best.
