Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Alright, you’ve drawn one of the last picks in round 1. You have mocked out the RB and see you will be choosing form the likes of maybe Clinton Portis, Travis Henry, Maroney, Rudi Johnson if you’re lucky…none of this is real exciting to you and comes with a lot of questions so you start looking at WR. And you say to yourself that you can lock up 2 WR and not have to take one for a long time allowing you to mix n match RB in maybe 3-5 of the next 5-7 rounds. I think it’s a worthy strategy but you have to really be careful which 2 WR you are going to lock up. Let’s look at the most likely scenarios of WR that you will have access to.
Steve Smith:
2003: 1,100/7…started to break out
2004: Injured
2005: 1,560/12…his career year so far.
2006: 1,160/8…Had a preseason injury but played in 14 games.
Carolina struggled last season and they don’t look that sharp this season. Smith did not crack the century mark after week 10 and had zero TDs in the money weeks of 14-16. In fact he didn’t catch a pass in week 16. Of course the guy has shown he has oodles of talent but if you are going to go WR/WR on the turn you want to make sure you don’t mess up.
Chad Johnson:
2003: 1,350/10
2004: 1,270/9
2005: 1,430/9
2006: 1,360/7
Now he has started all games for the past 5 seasons which means he appears to be a low injury risk but he has only cracked double digit TD once and that was 4 years ago. And last year he had a bunch of games where he had little to no impact at all. As long as Rudi Johnson can keep banging them in form short yardage, where is the big upside with CJ?
Marvin Harrison:
1999: 1,660/12
2000: 1,400/14
2001: 1,500/15
2002: 1,700/11
2003: 1,270/10
2004: 1,100/15
2005: 1,100/12
2006: 1,350/12
Seriously folks…if you want to make sure you lock up a minimum of 1,100-1,200 yds and 10-12 TD, doesn’t it make sense to take this guy? What is not sexy about 8 straight years of a minimum of 1,100 yds and 10 TDs…and going for 12+ in 6 of those 8 seasons? Has Peyton manning slowed down? Is Reggie Wayne really eating into his production? I realize the guy is 35 but he takes great care of himself and is never involved in any controversy or media issues. He just shows up and does his job.
Reggie Wayne:
2004: 1,200/12
2005: 1,050/5…remember how mad everyone got that year?
2006: 1,300/9
He has had 2 really good years and 1 so so for his draft position in between. He is entering his 7th season in the NFL and has been to 1 Pro Bowl not that it matters. I have seen Wayne taken at 2.01 in drafts. Until Wayne actually outperforms Harrison I don’t see how you can pull the trigger on Wayne 1st in redrafts.
Terrell Owens:
1998: 1,050/14
2000: 1,450/13
2001: 1,400/16
2002: 1,300/13
2003: 1,100/9
2004: 1,200/14
2005: Let’s not go there
2006: 1,180/13
Owens has scored 13+ TDs in 6 of the last 9 seasons…in fact he is 4th on the all time TD list for receptions, and tied for 9th overall rush/rec with 114. Owens has had Steve Young, Jeff Garcia, Donovon McNabb, and now Tony Romo so he hasn’t had the same QB his whole career as others in this pack have. I know he is a controversy away from something bad happening but he is happy with his contract right now and he will be a big part of the offense in Dallas. And even when he is double covered it doesn’t matter. He also catches a lot of TD inside the 10 and 20 so he is always a threat to score. Hard to not want him as one of the WR in a WR/WR turn early or even as the #1WR taken off the board.
Now there are other WR that I think have the talent and skills plus the almighty opp to crack the top5. I do love Larry Fitzgerald but Leinart is going into only his 2nd season and Fitz has shown a little bit of durability issues…maybe it’s the heat down in AZ but it seems like all of their top flight WRs over the years have had some injury problems. I think Javon Walker suffers from the same scenario at QB but he is another that could crack the top5.
I didn’t mention Torry Holt but the injury concerns over him right now would have me spooked to grab him on the turn at the end of the 1st.
Lee Evans is a guy I like a lot and he reminds me of Steve Smith a lot. He has tremendous skills and plays in a subpar offense but seems to keep finding the end zone and racking up yards. If he could take another step forward this year…maybe he can have a 1,400/10-12 TD type year.
Andre Johnson is another guy where given time with Schaub, he could become more productive. He had 100+ catches last season…just needs for someone to get him the ball deep more which will create more ypc for him and TD opps.
So the safe bet might be Owens/Harrison although I doubt many owners are going to go that route that opt for WR/WR for the turn in the 1st/2nd.
Steve Smith:
2003: 1,100/7…started to break out
2004: Injured
2005: 1,560/12…his career year so far.
2006: 1,160/8…Had a preseason injury but played in 14 games.
Carolina struggled last season and they don’t look that sharp this season. Smith did not crack the century mark after week 10 and had zero TDs in the money weeks of 14-16. In fact he didn’t catch a pass in week 16. Of course the guy has shown he has oodles of talent but if you are going to go WR/WR on the turn you want to make sure you don’t mess up.
Chad Johnson:
2003: 1,350/10
2004: 1,270/9
2005: 1,430/9
2006: 1,360/7
Now he has started all games for the past 5 seasons which means he appears to be a low injury risk but he has only cracked double digit TD once and that was 4 years ago. And last year he had a bunch of games where he had little to no impact at all. As long as Rudi Johnson can keep banging them in form short yardage, where is the big upside with CJ?
Marvin Harrison:
1999: 1,660/12
2000: 1,400/14
2001: 1,500/15
2002: 1,700/11
2003: 1,270/10
2004: 1,100/15
2005: 1,100/12
2006: 1,350/12
Seriously folks…if you want to make sure you lock up a minimum of 1,100-1,200 yds and 10-12 TD, doesn’t it make sense to take this guy? What is not sexy about 8 straight years of a minimum of 1,100 yds and 10 TDs…and going for 12+ in 6 of those 8 seasons? Has Peyton manning slowed down? Is Reggie Wayne really eating into his production? I realize the guy is 35 but he takes great care of himself and is never involved in any controversy or media issues. He just shows up and does his job.
Reggie Wayne:
2004: 1,200/12
2005: 1,050/5…remember how mad everyone got that year?
2006: 1,300/9
He has had 2 really good years and 1 so so for his draft position in between. He is entering his 7th season in the NFL and has been to 1 Pro Bowl not that it matters. I have seen Wayne taken at 2.01 in drafts. Until Wayne actually outperforms Harrison I don’t see how you can pull the trigger on Wayne 1st in redrafts.
Terrell Owens:
1998: 1,050/14
2000: 1,450/13
2001: 1,400/16
2002: 1,300/13
2003: 1,100/9
2004: 1,200/14
2005: Let’s not go there
2006: 1,180/13
Owens has scored 13+ TDs in 6 of the last 9 seasons…in fact he is 4th on the all time TD list for receptions, and tied for 9th overall rush/rec with 114. Owens has had Steve Young, Jeff Garcia, Donovon McNabb, and now Tony Romo so he hasn’t had the same QB his whole career as others in this pack have. I know he is a controversy away from something bad happening but he is happy with his contract right now and he will be a big part of the offense in Dallas. And even when he is double covered it doesn’t matter. He also catches a lot of TD inside the 10 and 20 so he is always a threat to score. Hard to not want him as one of the WR in a WR/WR turn early or even as the #1WR taken off the board.
Now there are other WR that I think have the talent and skills plus the almighty opp to crack the top5. I do love Larry Fitzgerald but Leinart is going into only his 2nd season and Fitz has shown a little bit of durability issues…maybe it’s the heat down in AZ but it seems like all of their top flight WRs over the years have had some injury problems. I think Javon Walker suffers from the same scenario at QB but he is another that could crack the top5.
I didn’t mention Torry Holt but the injury concerns over him right now would have me spooked to grab him on the turn at the end of the 1st.
Lee Evans is a guy I like a lot and he reminds me of Steve Smith a lot. He has tremendous skills and plays in a subpar offense but seems to keep finding the end zone and racking up yards. If he could take another step forward this year…maybe he can have a 1,400/10-12 TD type year.
Andre Johnson is another guy where given time with Schaub, he could become more productive. He had 100+ catches last season…just needs for someone to get him the ball deep more which will create more ypc for him and TD opps.
So the safe bet might be Owens/Harrison although I doubt many owners are going to go that route that opt for WR/WR for the turn in the 1st/2nd.
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