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Maurice Jones-Drew is the bust of 2007 (1 Viewer)

L

Louisville Slugger

Footballguy
What Lamont Jordan was in 2006. MJD is in 2007.

MJD is nothing more than a back up running back who has shown nothing to be optimistic in the first two games of the season. He is not a buy low candidate. He is simply a player to avoid or someone to be used as a good 4th option or bye week option.

Bottom line: MJD is a total bust.

 
maybe, but the difference here is that there were supposed to be no major changes in their coaching/gameplan. lamont had the change to art shell and his bed-n-breakfast OC. what's causing the changes in JAX?

 
he's not Arrington (that guy is worthless) but he isnt worth a 2nd round pick either . . .

I am still trying to figure that one out . . .

 
He was always a dangerous pick. So was Bush (in a non-PPR) for that matter.

You shouldn't rely on a RBBC back for consistent scoring. That seems pretty obvious.

Drew's totals were inflated by a handful of big plays last season. But in general, FF teams aren't built around guys who get 160 carries in a season.

 
Hate to admit, but until he sees the ball, his value is extremely limited.

And as long as Fred Taylor is healthy, he's not seeing the ball.

Might be a good buy low candidate at this point, though...because I still believe if he becomes the feature back, he'll be a top RB.

 
chris1969 said:
He's not a bust, he's justed overated.
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It's kind of the "Deagelo Williams effect" in action with MJD.We, fantasy footballers, see the dynamic rushing talent and just can't imagine that the coach doesn't see that to and want to play him every down. We believe it so much that we ignore the coach when they say that Foster or Taylor is still the starter. We can't imagine that the coach could actually be telling the truth that, despite the obvious talent, MJD or Deangelo will be splitting time as the lesser side of a RBBC for a variety of reasons.Not that the talent isn't there but, perhaps, some have jumped the gun on the opportunity.
 
Bender said:
Hate to admit, but until he sees the ball, his value is extremely limited. And as long as Fred Taylor is healthy, he's not seeing the ball.Might be a good buy low candidate at this point, though...because I still believe if he becomes the feature back, he'll be a top RB.
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2006: Fred Taylor was healthy2006: MJD was NOT the feature backgreat analysis, Mr. Rodriguez
 
:goodposting:

Shoulda listened to Dodds..

Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP = RB14, 18th overall) - I won't be drafting Jones-Drew in any leagues this year. He caught lightning in a bottle last year (scored 10 TDs in his last 8 games) and probably should have been the rookie of the year. He has a unique skill set, but I don't see him approaching his TD numbers of 2006. He is in a full-blown RBBC situation with Fred Taylor and I don't think the coaching staff believes Jones-Drew can be a full-time back. So I see limited opportunities (12 to 18 touches a game) and history suggest you can't score 13-15 TDs with this kind of workload. His receptions will likely increase, but I suspect both his YPC (5.7 last year) and his total TDs (15) will all be down in 2007. I think his ADP represents his ceiling and his floor is much lower.

 
Let me say, I did not draft him. But I would consider him a buy low type of guy. At least as a long shot. The guy scored over 80% of his TD's during the 2nd 1/2 of the season last year.

We will see what happens, but I do think it is to early to completly write him off. I didn't think he would live to his value before the season started, and I still don't think that.

But if you want to talk about the biggest bust thus far of the year, COMPARED to owner expectation, I think you need to start looking at 3 out of the top 5 backs drafted in almost every draft this off season.

 
I don't know what to make of this situation. MJD is obviously a weapon. He is one of the best receiving backs in the league and he gets, what, 1 catch today? He should be on the field every play. If not lined up at tailback, then in the slot or in motion to go against a linebacker.

There were some decent signs today. Critical 4th and 1 and they have MJD in there to convert, which he does. I give this about 1 more week until Del Rio tells his new OC to go back to what they know works.

 
PahtyTom said:
What is MJD's value right now?
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I would value him higher than Julius Jones, higher than Deshawn Foster, right below Benson and Jacobs. I tell you another thing, I won my Zealot league last year with Ronnie Brown and MJD as my only two backs. I am far more worried about Brown right now than MJD.
 
He was being drafted as if Fred Taylor wasn't there.

The Jags straight out said that Taylor was the #1 there, don't see how this is very shocking.

 
Bender said:
Hate to admit, but until he sees the ball, his value is extremely limited. And as long as Fred Taylor is healthy, he's not seeing the ball.Might be a good buy low candidate at this point, though...because I still believe if he becomes the feature back, he'll be a top RB.
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today's box was .....F. Taylor 16 56 0 29M. Jones-Drew 11 31 0 9D. Garrard 5 20 0 11G. Jones 2 6 0 4
 
One of the major factors for MJD is that Leftwich would dump the ball off to MJD and he would take off with it, where Garrard is taking the ball and running with it. Until he gets the dinks and dunks he is useless. He wont get enough carries and JAX offense looks horrible, so there will be scare gl attempts, and who knows yet if G. Jones will vulture those, even though I doubt it. MJD has the talent but it wont be there if the opportunities are not.

 
Swampy said:
One of the major factors for MJD is that Leftwich would dump the ball off to MJD and he would take off with it, where Garrard is taking the ball and running with it. Until he gets the dinks and dunks he is useless. He wont get enough carries and JAX offense looks horrible, so there will be scare gl attempts, and who knows yet if G. Jones will vulture those, even though I doubt it. MJD has the talent but it wont be there if the opportunities are not.
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Huh? Garrard started from week 8 on last year and MJD was great with him.
 
PahtyTom said:
Swampy said:
One of the major factors for MJD is that Leftwich would dump the ball off to MJD and he would take off with it, where Garrard is taking the ball and running with it. Until he gets the dinks and dunks he is useless. He wont get enough carries and JAX offense looks horrible, so there will be scare gl attempts, and who knows yet if G. Jones will vulture those, even though I doubt it. MJD has the talent but it wont be there if the opportunities are not.
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Huh? Garrard started from week 8 on last year and MJD was great with him.
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Your right, good point, but he was also getting the dump-offs with Garrard last year. What Im saying is that Garrard is not even considering it, hes just taking off with it.
 
I had MJD, D Williams and Bush in one category of RB's I wasn't drafting and Cadillac, R Brown, and Benson in the other. The first group wasn't gonna get enough touches to match their ADP, and the second group's ADP musta been set by people on hallucinogenic drugs.

 
In dynasty he just becomes a more affordable target to buy IMO. I wouldn't want to rely on him as my RB1 or even RB2 right now (which is where he was being drafted) but I think he's going to have an excellent career. Freddie's pretty long in tooth and the ability MJD showed last year didn't suddenly go away after 2 games. Same as with DeAngelo Williams, those who can't afford to be patient shouldn't roster him.

In redrafts, those who were expecting 15 TDs again need to somehow learn to stop being slaves to prior year stats.

 
Remember, there *has been* change in Jacksonville. Koetter has been brought in to conjure up the offense this season, and it doesn't look nearly as effective as last year's.

 
moderated said:
He was being drafted as if Fred Taylor wasn't there.

The Jags straight out said that Taylor was the #1 there, don't see how this is very shocking.
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This is the truth. There's still hope. It's only week 2.
 
ceo3west said:
:confused:

Shoulda listened to Dodds..

Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP = RB14, 18th overall) - I won't be drafting Jones-Drew in any leagues this year.
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Hmmm. Is this the same Dodds that predicted MJD to have 882 rushing yards, 440 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns, and 53 receptions? I love how Dodds can predict for a guy to have monster status for the VBD projections and then he goes and makes a statement like that. It makes me wonder if Dodds has any faith in his own statistical projections.
 
BusterTBronco said:
ceo3west said:
:scared:

Shoulda listened to Dodds..

Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP = RB14, 18th overall) - I won't be drafting Jones-Drew in any leagues this year.
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Hmmm. Is this the same Dodds that predicted MJD to have 882 rushing yards, 440 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns, and 53 receptions? I love how Dodds can predict for a guy to have monster status for the VBD projections and then he goes and makes a statement like that. It makes me wonder if Dodds has any faith in his own statistical projections.
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The cornerstone of VBD is that all players have value somewhere.
 
:scared: What exactly are people expecting from a backup?? I try to start the starters of each team. Am I doing something wrong?
 
packersfan said:
EBF said:
You shouldn't rely on a RBBC back for consistent scoring. That seems pretty obvious.
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Tell that to Marion Barber's owners.
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Not sure what your point is. Barber is a streaky player. Look at his game log from last season. Not a single 100 yard rushing game. When he gets in the end zone he's good, but when he doesn't he kills you. RBBC guys should be avoided outside of best ball and total points leagues.
 
EBF said:
packersfan said:
EBF said:
You shouldn't rely on a RBBC back for consistent scoring. That seems pretty obvious.
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Tell that to Marion Barber's owners.
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Not sure what your point is. Barber is a streaky player. Look at his game log from last season. Not a single 100 yard rushing game. When he gets in the end zone he's good, but when he doesn't he kills you. RBBC guys should be avoided outside of best ball and total points leagues.
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Actually Barber has been incredibly consistent. He has now scored at least 1 TD in 8 of his last 9 games and 10 of of his last 12 games dating back to last season. He hasn't killed his fantasy owners in a very long time. The point is that even in RBBC situations there is value. You just have to know where to find it and make sure your expectations are realistic.It's far too soon to be worried about Jones-Drew in my opinion just as it's far too soon to be worried about Bush. They will get theirs. If you have a frustrated Jones-Drew owners in your league I'd see if you can make a deal. I think he's a strong Buy Low candidate if the owner is frustrated enough to forget where he drafted him.
 
packersfan said:
Actually Barber has been incredibly consistent. He has now scored at least 1 TD in 8 of his last 9 games and 10 of of his last 12 games dating back to last season. He hasn't killed his fantasy owners in a very long time. The point is that even in RBBC situations there is value. You just have to know where to find it and make sure your expectations are realistic.
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He's still too risky to be considered a great starting option. When he doesn't score, he kills you.Does he have some value? Sure. Is he a top tier starter? No. People didn't draft Drew expecting part-time production. That's the problem. He was taken way too high. He'll break some big plays and have some big weeks, but he's going to give you some 12 carries for 40 yards weeks that kill you in head-to-head play.
 
EBF said:
packersfan said:
Actually Barber has been incredibly consistent. He has now scored at least 1 TD in 8 of his last 9 games and 10 of of his last 12 games dating back to last season. He hasn't killed his fantasy owners in a very long time. The point is that even in RBBC situations there is value. You just have to know where to find it and make sure your expectations are realistic.
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He's still too risky to be considered a great starting option. When he doesn't score, he kills you.
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And as I pointed out, he's scored A LOT consistently in a large number of games.
Does he have some value? Sure. Is he a top tier starter? No.
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He was Top 20 last season and is probably Top 20 again so far after two weeks.
People didn't draft Drew expecting part-time production. That's the problem. He was taken way too high. He'll break some big plays and have some big weeks, but he's going to give you some 12 carries for 40 yards weeks that kill you in head-to-head play.
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I agree he's been a major disappointment. I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying that it's too soon to write him off. I think he's talented and I think if you can trade for him now it's a smart move to make.
 
packersfan said:
And as I pointed out, he's scored A LOT consistently in a large number of games.
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Yea, and look at how he closed out the season last year:3 carries for 4 yards, 3 catches for 23 yards7 carries for 15 yards and 1 TD, 5 catches for 23 yards6 carries for 3 yards11 carries for 69 yards and 2 TDs, 4 catches for 27 yards2 carries for -1 yardsThat's three duds, one decent game, and one great game. That's not how you win a title in a head-to-head league. I'd venture to guess that most of the teams who won a title last year with Marion Barber as their RB1 or RB2 did so in spite of him and not because of him. He's not a difference maker in FF. That's not really up for debate.
 
EBF said:
packersfan said:
And as I pointed out, he's scored A LOT consistently in a large number of games.
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Yea, and look at how he closed out the season last year:3 carries for 4 yards, 3 catches for 23 yards7 carries for 15 yards and 1 TD, 5 catches for 23 yards6 carries for 3 yards11 carries for 69 yards and 2 TDs, 4 catches for 27 yards2 carries for -1 yardsThat's three duds, one decent game, and one great game. That's not how you win a title in a head-to-head league. I'd venture to guess that most of the teams who won a title last year with Marion Barber as their RB1 or RB2 did so in spite of him and not because of him. He's not a difference maker in FF. That's not really up for debate.
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Well if you think a Top 20 RB who has scored at least one TD in nearly every game in his last 12 isn't a difference maker than we'll agree to disagree. I think it's quite clear Barber is a difference maker and has been for some time.Sorry for the hijack folks.
 
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