redman
Footballguy
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2006 was | 7 | 110 207 53.1 1297 6.3 10 6 | 24 107 0 || 2007 was | 2 | 28 50 56.0 431 8.6 1 3 | 10 68 0 |Yeah, I'm a Redskins homer and I have Campbell on two of my teams, but I hope you'll take what I have to say here as someone who follows his team closely and who, in fantasy terms, puts his money where his mouth is. Pick up Campbell now. In dynasty, do it with urgency as that is particularly where Campbell is going to have his best value for you. You're never going to have the combination of assuredness that he's progressing and will be good (and perhaps very good or even great) along with the mediocre appearing stats that keep his fantasy price low.
Campbell's stats from two games, amortized over a season, come to 224/400/3448 8/24 80/544/0. Only the passing yardage is strong, but the completion % is merely passable (though already improved over last year) and statistically speaking he's regressed in terms of both TD's and INT's. Those stats won't hold up over this season. I think the rate of Campbell's TD's absolutely increases, his INT rate likely decreases, and his yardage may increase; his rushing stats are probably about right, though he figures to end up with between 1 and 3 rushing TD's, which is nice bonus value.
Here's what your trading partner hopefully won't know, however. Campbell's receivers, have dropped a good half-dozen completions for him in two games. Moss has accounted for half of them, which is very much out of character for him. Cooley dropped a 20+ yard reception on the sideline last night in the opening drive, which is also uncharacteristic for him. Yes drops happen, but they won't happen at this rate over the course of the season. Those drops are why he's not at over a 60% completion rate, and given the lost yardage involved his yards per attempt would be off the charts, almost certainly over 9 yards per completion.
The yards per completion, BTW, is not an illusion here. Hopefully your trading partner will be thinking of that bizarre Hail Mary deflected completion to ARE last week, but as you saw last night they will take shots deep with Campbell this year; they weren't doing much of that last year. Campbell excels at those passes - 'Skins fans will tell you that this isn't Patrick Ramsey here, who had an equally strong arm but was always inaccurate with the deep throws. Again, hopefully your trading partner will think of that missed shot to Moss late in the Eagles game and think that Campbell is erratic on such passes. Most emphatically, he's not; that's just a young QB who got caught up in the moment on what would have been a game-sealing TD on MNF on the road in Philly, IMHO. He's going to hit far more of those than he'll miss.
With a healthy Portis and Betts in there, the running game must be respected, which means play-action (always the best way to set up a deep pass) is even more effective. Both Moss and ARE are very quick and fast, and both are very good getting the deep ball, especially Moss. They're also showing that they know how to use ARE to make him a legit WR2 opposite Moss (BTW, forget about Lloyd; ARE is the WR2 and amazingly enough I'm still seeing him available on waiver wires).
What concerns me about this prediction? Honestly not much, and not anything having to do with the offensive skill positions or Campbell himself. What most concerns me is the offensive line. They've lost both their RT (Jansen, for the season) and their RG (Thomas, for ?????). Replacing Jansen is Todd Wade, who is not much of a drop-off and may even arguably be an improvement over Jansen at this stage of Jansen's career. Fabini replaced Thomas last night, and that's a definite downgrade. Now matter how good or bad those two replacements are, however, the one thing we know they lack is continuity. Fabini's serial false starts were particularly ugly against the Eagles. Nevertheless, take note of the fact that last night on MNF, against a blitzing Philly defense that had to be targeting the right side of that line, they only got to Campbell once for a sack, and I recall that being early in the game, before Thomas left with the injury.
Bottom line: no projections I saw of Campbell had him throwing fewer than around 17-18 TD's this year, and many had him with 20+. That was before he had shown how much he'd progressed after an entire offseason as a starter, and with a healthy Moss and Portis in the lineup. He will only get better as the season goes on, and perhaps dramatically so. Even if you assume that he reaches only the minimum projections, that still means that he's figures to throw 16-17 TD's in the remaining 14 games, which is plenty good for a QB2 on your fantasy team, especially when you figure that he'll add 20-40 rushing yards per game and an occasional rushing TD.
Campbell's stats from two games, amortized over a season, come to 224/400/3448 8/24 80/544/0. Only the passing yardage is strong, but the completion % is merely passable (though already improved over last year) and statistically speaking he's regressed in terms of both TD's and INT's. Those stats won't hold up over this season. I think the rate of Campbell's TD's absolutely increases, his INT rate likely decreases, and his yardage may increase; his rushing stats are probably about right, though he figures to end up with between 1 and 3 rushing TD's, which is nice bonus value.
Here's what your trading partner hopefully won't know, however. Campbell's receivers, have dropped a good half-dozen completions for him in two games. Moss has accounted for half of them, which is very much out of character for him. Cooley dropped a 20+ yard reception on the sideline last night in the opening drive, which is also uncharacteristic for him. Yes drops happen, but they won't happen at this rate over the course of the season. Those drops are why he's not at over a 60% completion rate, and given the lost yardage involved his yards per attempt would be off the charts, almost certainly over 9 yards per completion.
The yards per completion, BTW, is not an illusion here. Hopefully your trading partner will be thinking of that bizarre Hail Mary deflected completion to ARE last week, but as you saw last night they will take shots deep with Campbell this year; they weren't doing much of that last year. Campbell excels at those passes - 'Skins fans will tell you that this isn't Patrick Ramsey here, who had an equally strong arm but was always inaccurate with the deep throws. Again, hopefully your trading partner will think of that missed shot to Moss late in the Eagles game and think that Campbell is erratic on such passes. Most emphatically, he's not; that's just a young QB who got caught up in the moment on what would have been a game-sealing TD on MNF on the road in Philly, IMHO. He's going to hit far more of those than he'll miss.
With a healthy Portis and Betts in there, the running game must be respected, which means play-action (always the best way to set up a deep pass) is even more effective. Both Moss and ARE are very quick and fast, and both are very good getting the deep ball, especially Moss. They're also showing that they know how to use ARE to make him a legit WR2 opposite Moss (BTW, forget about Lloyd; ARE is the WR2 and amazingly enough I'm still seeing him available on waiver wires).
What concerns me about this prediction? Honestly not much, and not anything having to do with the offensive skill positions or Campbell himself. What most concerns me is the offensive line. They've lost both their RT (Jansen, for the season) and their RG (Thomas, for ?????). Replacing Jansen is Todd Wade, who is not much of a drop-off and may even arguably be an improvement over Jansen at this stage of Jansen's career. Fabini replaced Thomas last night, and that's a definite downgrade. Now matter how good or bad those two replacements are, however, the one thing we know they lack is continuity. Fabini's serial false starts were particularly ugly against the Eagles. Nevertheless, take note of the fact that last night on MNF, against a blitzing Philly defense that had to be targeting the right side of that line, they only got to Campbell once for a sack, and I recall that being early in the game, before Thomas left with the injury.
Bottom line: no projections I saw of Campbell had him throwing fewer than around 17-18 TD's this year, and many had him with 20+. That was before he had shown how much he'd progressed after an entire offseason as a starter, and with a healthy Moss and Portis in the lineup. He will only get better as the season goes on, and perhaps dramatically so. Even if you assume that he reaches only the minimum projections, that still means that he's figures to throw 16-17 TD's in the remaining 14 games, which is plenty good for a QB2 on your fantasy team, especially when you figure that he'll add 20-40 rushing yards per game and an occasional rushing TD.
When you have four guys in the same starting lineup to be drafting in the first or second round, it's pretty high powered. I think they were all feeding off of each other. Surely they were all darned good in college.
But thanks for the post anyway. 
His stats may be marginally better. He's a better guy to have for 2009 and beyond.
