Good God, what's wrong with me? This took hours...
http://www.econ.tcu.edu/harvey/dak_ffl/forecasting_idp.pdf
http://www.econ.tcu.edu/harvey/dak_ffl/forecasting_idp.pdf
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An Article I Wrote on the Reliability of Tends in IDP Forecasting (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RommelDAK
- Start date
stevegamer
Footballguy
You "have absolutely no common sense" - it's right there in the second paragraph.
Seriously, we're all hardcore, and I thank you for the article.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Bringing this thread, and RommelDAK's excellent article herein, back with it. I was selfishly looking for a way to have his work formally recognized by FBG (and it may yet be), but the information is time-sensitive and I can't justify holding it back any longer.
Thanks again to RommelDAK for his patience.
Give this one a read folks. The data, results and conclusions are significant.
Thanks again to RommelDAK for his patience.
Give this one a read folks. The data, results and conclusions are significant.
Though not nearly as significant as the fact that I spent a Saturday doing this instead of getting out in the fresh air!
Nice read .. what a trooper 
I’m our commissioner and I have long, complex explanations for my choice of weights (for
example, it looks like we don’t give much for sacks, but NFL scorers reward a tackle and a tackle
for loss for every sack, so essentially sacks count three points), but I will spare you that.
I'm not clear on the sack is x3
I'm fairly certain you only get a solo with a sack, making it x2.
I’m our commissioner and I have long, complex explanations for my choice of weights (for
example, it looks like we don’t give much for sacks, but NFL scorers reward a tackle and a tackle
for loss for every sack, so essentially sacks count three points), but I will spare you that.
I'm not clear on the sack is x3
I'm fairly certain you only get a solo with a sack, making it x2.
dgreen
Footballguy
They also get a point for a tackle for loss, which he's saying is also awarded to a player on a sack. So, sack + solo + tfl = 3 pts.Rozelle said:Nice read .. what a trooper
I’m our commissioner and I have long, complex explanations for my choice of weights (for
example, it looks like we don’t give much for sacks, but NFL scorers reward a tackle and a tackle
for loss for every sack, so essentially sacks count three points), but I will spare you that.
I'm not clear on the sack is x3
I'm fairly certain you only get a solo with a sack, making it x2.
That's it exactly. Originally, I had planned on giving 1 pt/tackle for loss plus, one point per tackle, and three points per sack. When playing with the stats from a previous season I noticed how heavily weighted this was (relatively) toward def linemen. It was only then that I realized that I was really awarding 5 pts/sack. One could do that, of course, but I didn't like it. Of course, if you don't realize how the scoring works in the NFL, you could look at 1pt/sack and think it was pretty low.They also get a point for a tackle for loss, which he's saying is also awarded to a player on a sack. So, sack + solo + tfl = 3 pts.Rozelle said:Nice read .. what a trooper
I’m our commissioner and I have long, complex explanations for my choice of weights (for
example, it looks like we don’t give much for sacks, but NFL scorers reward a tackle and a tackle
for loss for every sack, so essentially sacks count three points), but I will spare you that.
I'm not clear on the sack is x3
I'm fairly certain you only get a solo with a sack, making it x2.
I see ... your scoring system scores it that way, not the NFL scorer. I was pretty sure the NFL only gives you a tackle with the sack. See Demetric Evans (Washington). Detroit/Washington GamebookThat's it exactly. Originally, I had planned on giving 1 pt/tackle for loss plus, one point per tackle, and three points per sack. When playing with the stats from a previous season I noticed how heavily weighted this was (relatively) toward def linemen. It was only then that I realized that I was really awarding 5 pts/sack. One could do that, of course, but I didn't like it. Of course, if you don't realize how the scoring works in the NFL, you could look at 1pt/sack and think it was pretty low.They also get a point for a tackle for loss, which he's saying is also awarded to a player on a sack. So, sack + solo + tfl = 3 pts.Rozelle said:Nice read .. what a trooper
I’m our commissioner and I have long, complex explanations for my choice of weights (for
example, it looks like we don’t give much for sacks, but NFL scorers reward a tackle and a tackle
for loss for every sack, so essentially sacks count three points), but I will spare you that.
I'm not clear on the sack is x3
I'm fairly certain you only get a solo with a sack, making it x2.
No, I meant the NFL. In fact, I looked up Evans and in Statsworld (I'm not sure what service they use for stats) he has 1 tackle, 1 sack, and 1 tackle for loss. Given that he, according to the gamebook, only made one tackle the whole game, he got all three on that sack.EDIT: I'm not sure if there is a free stat site that shows tackles for loss, but here's a screen shot of the Statsworld page for Washington def linemen from last week:Rozelle said:I see ... your scoring system scores it that way, not the NFL scorer. I was pretty sure the NFL only gives you a tackle with the sack. See Demetric Evans (Washington). Detroit/Washington GamebookRommelDAK said:That's it exactly. Originally, I had planned on giving 1 pt/tackle for loss plus, one point per tackle, and three points per sack. When playing with the stats from a previous season I noticed how heavily weighted this was (relatively) toward def linemen. It was only then that I realized that I was really awarding 5 pts/sack. One could do that, of course, but I didn't like it. Of course, if you don't realize how the scoring works in the NFL, you could look at 1pt/sack and think it was pretty low.They also get a point for a tackle for loss, which he's saying is also awarded to a player on a sack. So, sack + solo + tfl = 3 pts.Rozelle said:Nice read .. what a trooper
I’m our commissioner and I have long, complex explanations for my choice of weights (for
example, it looks like we don’t give much for sacks, but NFL scorers reward a tackle and a tackle
for loss for every sack, so essentially sacks count three points), but I will spare you that.
I'm not clear on the sack is x3
I'm fairly certain you only get a solo with a sack, making it x2.
http://www.econ.tcu.edu/harvey/dak_ffl/statsworld.jpg
That it's giving zero points to four of them I cannot explain, but it does show the tackle for loss for Evans.
Last edited by a moderator:
McGarnicle
Footballguy
Bye bye Ronde Barber!!
Thanks for the article, great stuff.
Thanks for the article, great stuff.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Bump after the discussion in the podcast and RTD column over the past two weeks.
