Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Last week I had a slow week - just 10-4. After going 9-1, including my Stone Cold
of the Year, then 9-6 and then 7-3 the prior three weeks, 34-14 isn't a bad month. That spread makes New England jealous. As for this week, I made some Thanksgiving picks a little early. Just call them the Hawai'i Picks, because they were 5-0. That makes for a nice start to this week, so let's move on to the Sunday / Monday games.
So - how about some picks?
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (OVER 44.5) - (1 star)
See the write-up below for more details, but I'm calling for a lot of offense in this one. Seattle should break 30 and if St. Louis holds up their end of the bargain, I can see this being a 50+ point game. The only thing that holds me back from calling this a multi-star pick is that the Rams could roll over and die in this one and not get 14 and losing 31-13 or 34-10, just making this an "under". That would hurt.
Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (UNDER 39) - (1 star)
Two good defenses vs. two struggling offenses - and Philip Rivers!!!! Wow, what more can you ask for? I normally don't like "under" picks, especially with games where the predicted totals are 40 or less, but I am having a tough time seeing how either side does well on offense. Even Tomlinson hasn't done well historically against the Ravens, including last year (98 yards and 0 TDs). Look for a 16-13 type affair.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Washington Redskins - (2 stars)
Washington is starting to click on offense - or at least that's what they want you to think. The Eagles and the Cowboys gave up a lot of yards to Jason Campbell the last two weeks, but the Eagles had a suspect secondary that game (Willam James at corner was exploited) and Dallas struggles in coverage as well. Tampa Bay's defense has very quietly built up a solid pass defense, ranked #3 in the NFL. Look for Santana Moss to continue to befuddle fantasy owners as he hibernates for the winter a few weeks early. As for the Bucs, they've found a ground game with Graham and even better the two greybeards in Garcia and Galloway continue to click. Tampa should continue to work their magic and keep a stranglehold on the NFL South. Bucs win in a low scoring game, 21-13.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (OVER 50.5) - (2 stars)
Hmm - New England scores, scores, and scores some more. The Eagles have a puncher's chance and should be able to get some points, but when the Pats might get 51 on their own, this is an easy one to pick. I won't pick a score here as my heart and my head are in conflict with this one, but I do see a lot of points regardless of how it plays out. 51+ seems pretty easy any way you slice it.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (OVER 46) - (3 stars)
Tennessee scored 20 in Denver last week and Vince Young broke 300 yards. Last time I checked, the Broncos secondary is at least a little better than the Bengals pass defense. Now, as far as the Bengals offense vs. the Titans' D, Tennessee hasn't been the same defense without Albert Haynesworth in the lineup. He's questionable at best to play, and even if he does I don't see him at full strength. The Bengals can move the ball with the best of them, with 3 solid WRs and two viable RBs. Further weight behind this is that both kickers are good. Barring a monsoon, I see both teams cracking 24 points each and that means a gimme for the over.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams - (3 stars)
Seattle throws the ball - a lot. The Rams aren't good against that kind of attack. Hasselbeck had 300+ yards last week and Mike Holmgren now knows that this will be the game plan the rest of the way. The good news is that it works. Even MoMo puts up some good numbers these days in this offense. As for the Rams, well, they made Trent Dilfer look good - the worst passing attack in the league - as Dilfer broke 200 yards passing. You may have missed this, but SF hadn't had 200+ yards passing in over a year prior to that (22 games, I believe). Hasselbeck could have 400 yards (500 if Belichick was his coach, but I digress). The Rams offense is better but the O-line is still suspect and Seattle's front four is solid - as is the rest of their defense. Seattle wins going away.
of the Week - Seattle.
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
There is an old saying that when a point spread moves significantly, it is that the "line is telling you something". Well, that's telling me something all right - stay away. The Saints should win this game, sure, but they should have won a lot of games that they didn't this season. Carolina can actually move the ball well with Testaverde, even without Steve Smith. If Smith is back then Carolina can win this game. Foster and DeAngelo Williams can run amok and this game could go all sorts of different directions. Adding in that Reggie Bush has been questionable all week and I'm steering clear.
Enjoy.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Last week I had a slow week - just 10-4. After going 9-1, including my Stone Cold
of the Year, then 9-6 and then 7-3 the prior three weeks, 34-14 isn't a bad month. That spread makes New England jealous. As for this week, I made some Thanksgiving picks a little early. Just call them the Hawai'i Picks, because they were 5-0. That makes for a nice start to this week, so let's move on to the Sunday / Monday games.So - how about some picks?
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (OVER 44.5) - (1 star)
See the write-up below for more details, but I'm calling for a lot of offense in this one. Seattle should break 30 and if St. Louis holds up their end of the bargain, I can see this being a 50+ point game. The only thing that holds me back from calling this a multi-star pick is that the Rams could roll over and die in this one and not get 14 and losing 31-13 or 34-10, just making this an "under". That would hurt.
Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (UNDER 39) - (1 star)
Two good defenses vs. two struggling offenses - and Philip Rivers!!!! Wow, what more can you ask for? I normally don't like "under" picks, especially with games where the predicted totals are 40 or less, but I am having a tough time seeing how either side does well on offense. Even Tomlinson hasn't done well historically against the Ravens, including last year (98 yards and 0 TDs). Look for a 16-13 type affair.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Washington Redskins - (2 stars)
Washington is starting to click on offense - or at least that's what they want you to think. The Eagles and the Cowboys gave up a lot of yards to Jason Campbell the last two weeks, but the Eagles had a suspect secondary that game (Willam James at corner was exploited) and Dallas struggles in coverage as well. Tampa Bay's defense has very quietly built up a solid pass defense, ranked #3 in the NFL. Look for Santana Moss to continue to befuddle fantasy owners as he hibernates for the winter a few weeks early. As for the Bucs, they've found a ground game with Graham and even better the two greybeards in Garcia and Galloway continue to click. Tampa should continue to work their magic and keep a stranglehold on the NFL South. Bucs win in a low scoring game, 21-13.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (OVER 50.5) - (2 stars)
Hmm - New England scores, scores, and scores some more. The Eagles have a puncher's chance and should be able to get some points, but when the Pats might get 51 on their own, this is an easy one to pick. I won't pick a score here as my heart and my head are in conflict with this one, but I do see a lot of points regardless of how it plays out. 51+ seems pretty easy any way you slice it.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (OVER 46) - (3 stars)
Tennessee scored 20 in Denver last week and Vince Young broke 300 yards. Last time I checked, the Broncos secondary is at least a little better than the Bengals pass defense. Now, as far as the Bengals offense vs. the Titans' D, Tennessee hasn't been the same defense without Albert Haynesworth in the lineup. He's questionable at best to play, and even if he does I don't see him at full strength. The Bengals can move the ball with the best of them, with 3 solid WRs and two viable RBs. Further weight behind this is that both kickers are good. Barring a monsoon, I see both teams cracking 24 points each and that means a gimme for the over.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams - (3 stars)
Seattle throws the ball - a lot. The Rams aren't good against that kind of attack. Hasselbeck had 300+ yards last week and Mike Holmgren now knows that this will be the game plan the rest of the way. The good news is that it works. Even MoMo puts up some good numbers these days in this offense. As for the Rams, well, they made Trent Dilfer look good - the worst passing attack in the league - as Dilfer broke 200 yards passing. You may have missed this, but SF hadn't had 200+ yards passing in over a year prior to that (22 games, I believe). Hasselbeck could have 400 yards (500 if Belichick was his coach, but I digress). The Rams offense is better but the O-line is still suspect and Seattle's front four is solid - as is the rest of their defense. Seattle wins going away.
of the Week - Seattle.***SUCKER BET GAME***
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
There is an old saying that when a point spread moves significantly, it is that the "line is telling you something". Well, that's telling me something all right - stay away. The Saints should win this game, sure, but they should have won a lot of games that they didn't this season. Carolina can actually move the ball well with Testaverde, even without Steve Smith. If Smith is back then Carolina can win this game. Foster and DeAngelo Williams can run amok and this game could go all sorts of different directions. Adding in that Reggie Bush has been questionable all week and I'm steering clear.
Enjoy.
Note to self - piggy back JP's picks during our trip to Vegas in Jan.
BUF @ NEP (-24) (win by 32+)
