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Willie Parker (1 Viewer)

Tornacl

Tornacl

Footballguy
Just curious as to where the Shark Pool thinks FWP ranks for dynasty purposes. He's been getting decent rushing yardage, as he's one of two RBs with more than 1000 yards so far this season, but obviously his receptions are minimal and he seems to be allergic to the end zone, 16 receptions and only 2 TDs.

Are the lack of TDs and receiving yards a product of the new system or is he having a down year? For future years, would you expect more of this year's production or more like last year?

I thought he was having a down year, but the more I see, the more I'm starting to worry that next year will be more like this year than last. It seems that coaches that like to use goal-line backs tend to keep using them.

In my 10-team PPR standard scoring league, he's currently RB #17, which is closer to being a RB3 than a RB1. (To put it in perspective, he's still 30 points behind Ronnie Brown who only played 8 games.) Yet in the dynasty rankings, FBG currently has him as RB#7. Last season, he finished as RB#7. As I see it, if you can get RB#7 value for giving him up, that may be a good move.

How does the rest of the Shark Pool see it?

 
I traded Big Ben (#5 QB in my scoring system) for him a week ago in a keeper league to give you an idea. I have Romo though.

 
Magic_Man said:
I traded Big Ben (#5 QB in my scoring system) for him a week ago in a keeper league to give you an idea. I have Romo though.
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I think that where he's producing now is closer to where he'll be next year than where he was last year. I think he'll be in the RB12-RB14 range next year. So if his perceived value is in line with the FBG ranking RB7, trading him for say RB10 + a prospect or draft pick would make a lot of sense. I'd be trading him for someone who I project to do better and I'd also get something else in the deal.I guess that's a long way of saying that he's over-valued right now.
 
I personally think he is undervalued right now. He has always been a great yardage getter, and I do not beleive he will have 2 TD's next yr....

I mean come on guys, he can break more than 2 ong TD's in a year. This year is not the norm. I just traded for him.

I gave up Maroney and Walker to get Fast Willie.

 
Luckily he's my #2 RB, but even at that he's not a must-start anymore. 10-12 pts a game just doesn't cut it.

 
He plays a great 95 yards worth of football. Unfortunately the field is 100 yards long.

 
As a steeler fan, I can tell you that he is a very good RB and I would not be expecting 2 tds through 12 games again next year. The biggest problem is the steelers o-line which creates almost no holes for the running game like they did in previous years. As of now, I would see him as a top 10 rb but not one to get too excited about. You know he will get his carries and his yards but those tds are a crapshoot year in and year out

 
Steelers22 said:
As a steeler fan, I can tell you that he is a very good RB and I would not be expecting 2 tds through 12 games again next year. The biggest problem is the steelers o-line which creates almost no holes for the running game like they did in previous years. As of now, I would see him as a top 10 rb but not one to get too excited about. You know he will get his carries and his yards but those tds are a crapshoot year in and year out
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:D Disappointing for FF owners to date, no question. As the Arians/Tomlin era continues to take hold, I think the line will be overhauled to match what the new playbook calls for.He's still as talented as any running back in the league that that doesn't go by LT or AD. The fumbles gotta stop though.
 
The TD thing is a fluke. TDs are so incredibly volatile from season to season (and even from game to game) that they're the hardest value to predict. Over a long enough timeline, the TDs always follow the yardage. If one guy is averaging 100 yards and 0 scores a game, and another guy is averaging 50 yards and 1 score a game, and both have similar usage patterns (i.e. one isn't a dedicated goal-line back), the 100 yard/0 score is the better long-term value. If nothing else, he's guaranteed to start breaking some long ones eventually.

Deuce McAllister is a good example that springs to mind. Here are his season-by-season numbers on yards per TD

109

270

145

151

126

Willie Parker is currently averaging 613 yards per TD, which is astronomical and can't be explained away by TD vulturing, because Pittsburgh's rushing TDs have been down across the board (no one on the roster has more than 3 rushing TDs). This figure is not supportable in the long term.

 
SSOG said:
The TD thing is a fluke. TDs are so incredibly volatile from season to season (and even from game to game) that they're the hardest value to predict. Over a long enough timeline, the TDs always follow the yardage. If one guy is averaging 100 yards and 0 scores a game, and another guy is averaging 50 yards and 1 score a game, and both have similar usage patterns (i.e. one isn't a dedicated goal-line back), the 100 yard/0 score is the better long-term value. If nothing else, he's guaranteed to start breaking some long ones eventually.

Deuce McAllister is a good example that springs to mind. Here are his season-by-season numbers on yards per TD

109

270

145

151

126

Willie Parker is currently averaging 613 yards per TD, which is astronomical and can't be explained away by TD vulturing, because Pittsburgh's rushing TDs have been down across the board (no one on the roster has more than 3 rushing TDs). This figure is not supportable in the long term.
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interesting take.. although I don't expect this week's game againt the Pats is the game he goes for 3 TD's
 
Anybody else think all these carries have worn down his legs? I just dont see the burst we used to, or the extra gear.

 
Anybody else think all these carries have worn down his legs? I just dont see the burst we used to, or the extra gear.
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The burst is still there. The holes are not.Parker's offensive line is lousy. You can't burst anyplace when you have someone on your hip(ofttimes your own Center) the moment you get the handoff.
 
5-ish Finkle said:
Anybody else think all these carries have worn down his legs? I just dont see the burst we used to, or the extra gear.
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The burst is still there. The holes are not.Parker's offensive line is lousy. You can't burst anyplace when you have someone on your hip(ofttimes your own Center) the moment you get the handoff.
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There's truth to that but on the other hand Parker has gotten into the habit of lowering his shoulder and heading for the turf when he cant find immediate daylight. This could be coaches instructions- but he sure isnt looking for cutback lanes for some reason. That being said the fact that he hasnt broken a single big play this year (longest play from scrimmage 32 yards) indicates something isnt the same. Last couple years you could count on him for some 40 and 50 yard (and longer) game breakers. He's still producing the nice 20 yards runs but he hasnt broken one long TD yet. He's getting caught like he never used to and i dont think its saying too much to suspect he's worn down leading the league in carries the better part of two years.
 
Steelers22 said:
As a steeler fan, I can tell you that he is a very good RB and I would not be expecting 2 tds through 12 games again next year. The biggest problem is the steelers o-line which creates almost no holes for the running game like they did in previous years. As of now, I would see him as a top 10 rb but not one to get too excited about. You know he will get his carries and his yards but those tds are a crapshoot year in and year out
Click to expand...
isnt fanica all but gone next year? could the line play actually get worse? End of last year his value was through the roof, it won't ever be up there again, he's not a top ten anymore imo. He's worthless in PPR leagues this year. :own3d:
 
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benm3218 said:
I personally think he is undervalued right now. He has always been a great yardage getter, and I do not beleive he will have 2 TD's next yr....I mean come on guys, he can break more than 2 ong TD's in a year. This year is not the norm. I just traded for him. I gave up Maroney and Walker to get Fast Willie.
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after averaging 4.4/carry last season, Parker is down to 3.8 this season,with just 2 TDS, down significantly from last season's 16 total TD's..I'm a believer in the flash in the pan theory with certain RB's...I think its sell high time for FWP.I wouldn't want him..never thought he was 'the' guy , he appears to be holding down the position for someone else. watch Pitt draft a RB in the first round in the '08 draft.. :goodposting:
 
Tanner9919 said:
I'm a believer in the flash in the pan theory with certain RB's...I think its sell high time for FWP.
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Selling now would be selling low. You might as well wait it out if you are a dynasty owner. Doubtful it could guess much worse. I own him in 4 dynasties, but got him off the wire a few years back. No way I am moving him for lower tier talents after a disappointing year.
 
mozzy84 said:
He's worthless in PPR leagues this year. :shrug:
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This is where he is hurting me as well. I have essentially been starting him as my RB3/Flex, and he is currently 16th in RB scoring, which, I guess isn't bad, but it sure isn't what I expected. Not to mention that 16th ranking is padded due to the many injuries to RB's this season. I like his 16th ranking to Portis' 6th rank (I love the Skins and Portis, so don't try to sell me). These guys would be a lot lower with the same scores in the past few years.
 
JPeso said:
Tanner9919 said:
I'm a believer in the flash in the pan theory with certain RB's...I think its sell high time for FWP.
Click to expand...
Selling now would be selling low. You might as well wait it out if you are a dynasty owner. Doubtful it could guess much worse. I own him in 4 dynasties, but got him off the wire a few years back. No way I am moving him for lower tier talents after a disappointing year.
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Maybe not.If you believe that the Steelers will draft/sign at least a complementary big back to Parker than maybe selling when he is the one and only primary back in Pittsburgh might be selling high. Not at his highest, but maybe his highest from this point onward.

IIRC, he is currently leading the league in attempts. You sell that and the "randomness" of TDs and maybe you could get good value for him.

 
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mozzy84 said:
Steelers22 said:
As a steeler fan, I can tell you that he is a very good RB and I would not be expecting 2 tds through 12 games again next year. The biggest problem is the steelers o-line which creates almost no holes for the running game like they did in previous years. As of now, I would see him as a top 10 rb but not one to get too excited about. You know he will get his carries and his yards but those tds are a crapshoot year in and year out
Click to expand...
isnt fanica all but gone next year? could the line play actually get worse? End of last year his value was through the roof, it won't ever be up there again, he's not a top ten anymore imo. He's worthless in PPR leagues this year. :thumbup:
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Madden was saying last night that the Steelers would want Faneca to take a home town discount of some sort. And I guess Faneca said he would never do it. So it seems as though the writing is on the wall... Without him, this "lousy OL" gets MUCH worse.
 
This brings me back to my original thought. I don't see his production being a whole lot better next year. FBG has him ranked as the RB7 for dynasty rankings, so if I can find someone who also thinks that's where he is and make a trade where I get RB7's worth out of him, I'd be making out.

Sometimes there is value not only in acquiring someone, but also in getting rid of them. For example: I think he'll be around RB14 next year. If I can find someone that would give me RB10 plus say the #11 rookie pick, then I'd really be good value, because the player I'd be getting I'm projecting to be better than he is. In that case, the best way to pull off that trade is to show what the FBG dynasty projections are, and hype those to a potential buyer. If I can get say Marshawn Lynch plus a decent draft pick, wouldn't that make sense? (I'm not looking for advice on a trade, I'm just illustrating how I think his dynasty projection seems high based on what I'm seeing.)

I don't think that he'll only have 2 tds next year, but I'm not liking the combination of the new pass-first offense, FWP's hands and burst, or the O-line play. I also don't like that Tomlin seems to be a coach that prefers to use a goal-line back. Add to that Faneca most likely won't be there, and I just don't see things getting a whole lot better.

 
Avery said:
JPeso said:
Tanner9919 said:
I'm a believer in the flash in the pan theory with certain RB's...I think its sell high time for FWP.
Click to expand...
Selling now would be selling low. You might as well wait it out if you are a dynasty owner. Doubtful it could guess much worse. I own him in 4 dynasties, but got him off the wire a few years back. No way I am moving him for lower tier talents after a disappointing year.
Click to expand...
Maybe not.If you believe that the Steelers will draft/sign at least a complementary big back to Parker than maybe selling when he is the one and only primary back in Pittsburgh might be selling high. Not at his highest, but maybe his highest from this point onward.

IIRC, he is currently leading the league in attempts. You sell that and the "randomness" of TDs and maybe you could get good value for him.
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I got Housh and a late(7-10ish) rookie pick for him in a start 3WR PPR league. Just for perspective.
 
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