Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Last week I had a fast start, going 5-0 with Thanksgiving picks followed by a mediocre Sunday, 7-5 but still a winning day. Not up to par from the past four weeks, where I went 10-4, 9-1 (including my Stone Cold :IBTL: of the Year), then 9-6 and then 7-3. Five winning weeks and 47-19 isn't a bad streak. That's a 71% winning percentage, which is
no matter how you slice it. I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week.
That game's over, and a good thing it did go "OVER" as I said it would because Favre and Co. cost me the Green Bay Pick. I went 2-2, so let's try and do better.
So - how about some picks?
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Detroit Lions (+4) at Minnesota Vikings - (1 star)
Like a moth to a bug zapper, I can't help myself with Detroit in a dome. Their offense is just too inviting. I know that Minnesota will be shutting down Kevin Jones and the ground game, so Kitna better last for 60 minutes. If he does, I think Calvin, Roy W and SMac can find the promised land and put up 24-27 points. That should be good enough. Oh yeah - both defenses are opportunistic and force a lot of turnovers. Couple all that with the anemic passing attack for the guys in purple and I see a pick 'em / FG type game, and I will take the Lions and the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Indianapolis Colts - (1 star)
The Colts struggle against the Jags. Personally, I think that Jacksonville is doing it with mirrors. Everyone is talking about Garrard and his lack of interceptions, but has anyone else noticed that he also has a lack of touchdowns? He's played in 8 games and has 9 TDs, what's up with that? Well, this game is more about the points than anything, and I think Jacksonville will hypnotize Peyton Manning into keeping this game close somehow. I don't know how they will do it aside from running MJD and Fraud Taylor 20 times each, but hey, whatever works. My best advice - don't look directly at this game, it'll drive you crazy.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)
There are so many reasons why this game could be 20+ on both sides. Tomlinson is about the first two or three, because that's about how often he should score. That's also about the number of times Philip Rivers could throw to a red jersey, setting up short fields for Damon Huard (who is better than Brody Croyle, sorry kid). Kolby Smith? Well, guess what - Smith ran wild against Oakland last week, and believe it or not the Chargers aren't terribly better against the ground attack. The only reason that Baltimore didn't do better is, well, they stink. Expect 100 yards and a TD from the kid - FROM? - Luahvull.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (UNDER 45.5...44....43...) - (1 star)
This game was at 45.5 on Friday (sorry folks) and looks to be rapidly decreasing. I'd still like it under 43 if the weather is terrible, and that's the entire play here. Heinz Field doesn't cut the mustard and no one can play catch up on that bad turf. No one relishes playing there.... ok I'll stop. If the weather is bad and the kicking is impossible, take the under 43. (I reserve the right to use 45.5 and/or rescind this pick if it is sunny - so take your risk on the weatherman now or then.....) To play fair, I'll leave the pick as "Under 43" for the purpose of this here and say play it now.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (OVER 51) - (2 stars)
Points, points, points. I don't see how they cannot be scored here. Kurt Warner through for a quarter-mile last week, and don't buy into the "Larry Fitzgerald is questionable". That came out of nowhere. Even if he is banged up, I'll take Fitzy at 50% with Boldin and Bryant Johnson (Sleeper alert). Even bigger sleeper is Pope at TE, as the Brownies are hurting in their secondary and at LB. The same can be said about the Cards, and that's not good news when you face Derek Anderson - I'm sure we all guessed that we'd say that 3 months ago, right? KW2 will rip apart the middle of the field, and Edwards is the quietest Top 10 WR in the league. Couple this with two teams that can move the ball on the ground if they need it with some veteran backs, and I see this game at 40 points by halftime. 34-31 seems pretty likely here, so 51 points doesn't frighten me, especially in a nice setting.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (UNDER 51.5) - (2 stars)
I said it last week and I'll say it again - I really don't like Unders. It's the only thing you can wager on that could be over in the third quarter, and that sucks. However, on Monday night, I really think that Ray Ray's pride will be at stake here. They'll follow the Colts and Eagles' gameplans and try and execute it the same way, but it won't be enough. The Ravens will lose this game, but the O/U is the only interesting angle I can find here. The best part of it is that I've finally figured out a way for the Ravens' inept offense to help. NE 38-6.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks - (3 stars)
Hey now, before you break out the
calls here, just listen. I am the LAST person who would want to call an Eagles win for fear of it all blowing up in my face, but I cannot deny what I'm seeing here. Philly played great against New England, and the Seahawks are winning because other teams are giving them games. They shouldn't have won last week (but I'll take it) as Bulger was carving them up, and now they are suffering from injuries in every way possible. DJ Hackett is hurt again, Tatupu is dinged, both of their lines are at less than full strength, and even worse - Shaun Alexander is playing. Kiss of death right there. What could get worse for Seattle? Hasselbeck is hurt and the Eagles smell blood in the water. It also hurts the Seahawks to travel from Seattle to St. Louis, then back home, then all the way back east to Philly - the second longest trip in the NFL I believe. That's a stacked deck against them before kickoff. A 1PM start for a West Coast team doesn't help matters, nor does facing an Eagles team that is firing on all cylinders without McNabb and looking pretty good on both sides of the ball. Having Brian Westbrook can do that for you. I've heard this story before about a backup QB coming in for the Eagles and them running off a streak in December, haven't you? I hear Rocky music.....or is that Adrian's "You Can't WIN!!!" I could go on, but I think you see why I can't steer clear. Eagles win this game by more than 3.
:IBTL: of the Week - Philadelphia Eagles
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New York Giants (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
Yuck. The Giants are favored? Didn't Chicago win a game solely because of Devin Hester? Has their passing game, QB situation, and ground game all improve overnight? The Bear defense is hurting, but Plaxico is hurting more. Both teams are the walking wounded and the Giants are in their typical second half swoon. The game started as a "Pick 'em" and the New York money came hard on it. I'm steering clear.
Enjoy.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Last week I had a fast start, going 5-0 with Thanksgiving picks followed by a mediocre Sunday, 7-5 but still a winning day. Not up to par from the past four weeks, where I went 10-4, 9-1 (including my Stone Cold :IBTL: of the Year), then 9-6 and then 7-3. Five winning weeks and 47-19 isn't a bad streak. That's a 71% winning percentage, which is
no matter how you slice it. I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week.That game's over, and a good thing it did go "OVER" as I said it would because Favre and Co. cost me the Green Bay Pick. I went 2-2, so let's try and do better.
So - how about some picks?
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Detroit Lions (+4) at Minnesota Vikings - (1 star)
Like a moth to a bug zapper, I can't help myself with Detroit in a dome. Their offense is just too inviting. I know that Minnesota will be shutting down Kevin Jones and the ground game, so Kitna better last for 60 minutes. If he does, I think Calvin, Roy W and SMac can find the promised land and put up 24-27 points. That should be good enough. Oh yeah - both defenses are opportunistic and force a lot of turnovers. Couple all that with the anemic passing attack for the guys in purple and I see a pick 'em / FG type game, and I will take the Lions and the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Indianapolis Colts - (1 star)
The Colts struggle against the Jags. Personally, I think that Jacksonville is doing it with mirrors. Everyone is talking about Garrard and his lack of interceptions, but has anyone else noticed that he also has a lack of touchdowns? He's played in 8 games and has 9 TDs, what's up with that? Well, this game is more about the points than anything, and I think Jacksonville will hypnotize Peyton Manning into keeping this game close somehow. I don't know how they will do it aside from running MJD and Fraud Taylor 20 times each, but hey, whatever works. My best advice - don't look directly at this game, it'll drive you crazy.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)
There are so many reasons why this game could be 20+ on both sides. Tomlinson is about the first two or three, because that's about how often he should score. That's also about the number of times Philip Rivers could throw to a red jersey, setting up short fields for Damon Huard (who is better than Brody Croyle, sorry kid). Kolby Smith? Well, guess what - Smith ran wild against Oakland last week, and believe it or not the Chargers aren't terribly better against the ground attack. The only reason that Baltimore didn't do better is, well, they stink. Expect 100 yards and a TD from the kid - FROM? - Luahvull.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (UNDER 45.5...44....43...) - (1 star)
This game was at 45.5 on Friday (sorry folks) and looks to be rapidly decreasing. I'd still like it under 43 if the weather is terrible, and that's the entire play here. Heinz Field doesn't cut the mustard and no one can play catch up on that bad turf. No one relishes playing there.... ok I'll stop. If the weather is bad and the kicking is impossible, take the under 43. (I reserve the right to use 45.5 and/or rescind this pick if it is sunny - so take your risk on the weatherman now or then.....) To play fair, I'll leave the pick as "Under 43" for the purpose of this here and say play it now.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (OVER 51) - (2 stars)
Points, points, points. I don't see how they cannot be scored here. Kurt Warner through for a quarter-mile last week, and don't buy into the "Larry Fitzgerald is questionable". That came out of nowhere. Even if he is banged up, I'll take Fitzy at 50% with Boldin and Bryant Johnson (Sleeper alert). Even bigger sleeper is Pope at TE, as the Brownies are hurting in their secondary and at LB. The same can be said about the Cards, and that's not good news when you face Derek Anderson - I'm sure we all guessed that we'd say that 3 months ago, right? KW2 will rip apart the middle of the field, and Edwards is the quietest Top 10 WR in the league. Couple this with two teams that can move the ball on the ground if they need it with some veteran backs, and I see this game at 40 points by halftime. 34-31 seems pretty likely here, so 51 points doesn't frighten me, especially in a nice setting.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (UNDER 51.5) - (2 stars)
I said it last week and I'll say it again - I really don't like Unders. It's the only thing you can wager on that could be over in the third quarter, and that sucks. However, on Monday night, I really think that Ray Ray's pride will be at stake here. They'll follow the Colts and Eagles' gameplans and try and execute it the same way, but it won't be enough. The Ravens will lose this game, but the O/U is the only interesting angle I can find here. The best part of it is that I've finally figured out a way for the Ravens' inept offense to help. NE 38-6.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks - (3 stars)
Hey now, before you break out the
calls here, just listen. I am the LAST person who would want to call an Eagles win for fear of it all blowing up in my face, but I cannot deny what I'm seeing here. Philly played great against New England, and the Seahawks are winning because other teams are giving them games. They shouldn't have won last week (but I'll take it) as Bulger was carving them up, and now they are suffering from injuries in every way possible. DJ Hackett is hurt again, Tatupu is dinged, both of their lines are at less than full strength, and even worse - Shaun Alexander is playing. Kiss of death right there. What could get worse for Seattle? Hasselbeck is hurt and the Eagles smell blood in the water. It also hurts the Seahawks to travel from Seattle to St. Louis, then back home, then all the way back east to Philly - the second longest trip in the NFL I believe. That's a stacked deck against them before kickoff. A 1PM start for a West Coast team doesn't help matters, nor does facing an Eagles team that is firing on all cylinders without McNabb and looking pretty good on both sides of the ball. Having Brian Westbrook can do that for you. I've heard this story before about a backup QB coming in for the Eagles and them running off a streak in December, haven't you? I hear Rocky music.....or is that Adrian's "You Can't WIN!!!" I could go on, but I think you see why I can't steer clear. Eagles win this game by more than 3.:IBTL: of the Week - Philadelphia Eagles
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New York Giants (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
Yuck. The Giants are favored? Didn't Chicago win a game solely because of Devin Hester? Has their passing game, QB situation, and ground game all improve overnight? The Bear defense is hurting, but Plaxico is hurting more. Both teams are the walking wounded and the Giants are in their typical second half swoon. The game started as a "Pick 'em" and the New York money came hard on it. I'm steering clear.
Enjoy.
[Kramer]
of the Year
I hope this works well for you.Good luck to all. Enjoy the games.
of the Year
[Kramer]
13 is unlucky...
of the Year
of the Year
