Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Last week I had what really felt like a terrible week - but looking back, I was actually surprised at how good it was for a losing week - if that makes sense. Sure I went 2-2 on Thursday but the Sunday games were off but Baltimore / New England brought me back to 6-9 for the week. If my worst week is 40% right, I'll take it, especially after the impressive run I've had of late. Rather than rehash them all, here's some links:
Week 13: (6-9)
Week 12: Thanksgiving picks (5-0) followed by a mediocre Sunday, Part 2: 7-5
but still a winning day.
Week 11: 10-4
Week 10: 9-1 (including my Stone Cold
of the Year)
Week 9: 9-6
Week 8: 7-3.
All that is over and won't help you now, so let's see what's on the docket this week.
So - how about some picks?
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Detroit Lions (+11) vs. Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
Yes, I'm back again looking to get my head beat in with the Lions. I just cannot help myself. Here me out, though - no one gave them a shot to win last year in Week 17 against Dallas, yet they did 39-31. Now before you say "Week 17, wasn't that meaningless?" - allow me to remind you that this was the 1PM game that gave Philadelphia the division last year (and also let the Eagles pull all of their starters out after one series). None of that matters a ton for this season, but expect Detroit to throw, throw and throw some more against a Dallas defense that can give up serious points. I know Roy Williams is out, but I still like the top 3 WRs for Detroit this week and KJ out of the backfield. I'm still tempering my expectations but I can't pass up so many points.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (Over 51) - (1 star)
This is a recording..... see above. I expect both teams to get 24 relatively easily, so 27-24 as a baseline is a good start. (I thought about the exotic play of teasing both, but I'll leave that up to the reader to think about).
Green Bay Packers (-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders - (1 star)
Let's see here - pick a good team? Check. Against a bad team? Check. Weather favors you? Check. On a good streak? Check.
Look for Favre to come back and show everyone that he's healthy. Oakland's secondary isn't as formidable as last year, so look for the Pack to get 2 TDs via the air and also run Grant lots inside and out. Whomever the Raiders put out there under center, it shouldn't matter much. Look for the Pack to roll here as they get 3-4 TDs and beat Oakland something like 31-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Over 47 or 48) - (1 star)
I'll be mentioning this game more than once, but suffice it to say right now that I'm seeing the game at 48 in most places but I did find it at 47. Since we're keeping score, guess what number I want here? 47? Correct - but even at 48 I still like it. I'm expecting New England to put up good numbers and also for the Steelers to try and keep pace.
San Diego Chargers (+1) at Tennessee Titans - (1 star)
The Chargers are looking to get on track and continue to push towards the playoffs. I expect the game plan to revolve around someone you may have heard of - a guy named Tomlinson. Haynesworth is questionable for the Titans and Chris Hope is now heading for the IR. As long as they keep Philip Rivers on a short leash and don't ask him to do too much (or possibly make a mistake) the Chargers should take care of this one.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons - (1 star)
I liked this game a bit more with Bush in the lineup, but Stecker and Pierre Thomas will do fine. Atlanta isn't very good, the game is still in a dome, and Atlanta isn't much of a home field advantage. The Saints can still get in the playoffs and even make some noise. The best part for them is that Chris Redman is starting for Atlanta and he will likely make just enough errors for New Orleans to exploit. The game is likely to be high scoring, and in that kind of game I'll take the team with the better QB and WR. That means Brees and Colston take this one in what should be an entertaining game to watch.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (Over 42.5)- (2 stars)
Yeah, there's a theme I guess this week - doubling up on my second game here. Like I just mentioned, points a-plenty in this one. Even if one side struggles, I expect one team to break 30 alone which means the other side only needs 13. That seems pretty safe considering both defenses are struggling. All that said, 31-24 Saints sounds about right.
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 45) - (2 stars)
This game was at 48 on Friday and has since sunk to 45 with the possible change at QB for the Rams (from Marc Bulger to Brock Berlin). The good news here is that both teams have big play offenses and their defenses are suspect at best. Even if Berlin starts, Torry Holt and Steven Jackson will take short passes and have a chance to break one or two for scores. The ground games for both can also carry the load, so I'm expecting a good amount of scoring here even if Berlin gets his first career start. Looks like the movement in the line here is actually a bonus.
Cleveland Browns (-3) at New York Jets - (2 stars)
The Jets could be without both of their starting WRs, and it seems like at least Cotchery is out. Even if Coles plays he won't be at full strength. Cleveland hasn't been very good at stopping people on defense this year, but that's where the ineptitude of the Jets comes into play. The Browns will certainly get their fair share and then some, but the Jets will continue to struggle. The good news for Jets fans is that this game will be a distant memory quickly with the Patriots looming on the horizon. Browns by double-digits.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)
Garcia is likely back (but Galloway may not be at full strength), but the good news is that this game is about Earnest Graham and ball control. As long as the Tampa secondary can contain Andre Johnson, as they should, this game will be played at a fast pace with the Bucs controlling the ball and the clock. Look for Graham to be the workhorse again as he might get 40 carries if Tampa has their way. I expect the Bucs to do just enough to win and cover that 3.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
New England Patriots (-10.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - (3 stars)
Suddenly the Patriots are a tough team to cover double-digit lines, and I'm not buying it this week. The key here is that the game opened at NE -15.5 - meaning Vegas liked the Pats by more that two touchdowns. I'm tending to agree.
So what's the deal on this one? Pretty simple. New England struggled (or as best as they can seem to struggle) against a good Eagles effort and another in Baltimore. Pittsburgh put up decent back to back games in bad weather - but at home. Has anyone noticed that the Steelers struggle on the road? How about the fact that if the Pats take care of business this week they have clear sailing to 15-0 with gimmes vs. the Jets and Miami? I see Randy Moss and company sending yet another message to the rest of the AFC that that Patriots are back and better than ever. NE 41-20.
:IBTL: of the Week - New England Patriots
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants win last week and are 8-4, and the Eagles lost to Seattle to fall to 5-7.... yet Philly is favored? Huh? Sure McNabb is back and there are questions about the Giants run game, but when aren't there these issues for them this year? Historically the Giants and Eagles tend to play close games and I expect it again this week. I'm not touching it.
Enjoy.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Last week I had what really felt like a terrible week - but looking back, I was actually surprised at how good it was for a losing week - if that makes sense. Sure I went 2-2 on Thursday but the Sunday games were off but Baltimore / New England brought me back to 6-9 for the week. If my worst week is 40% right, I'll take it, especially after the impressive run I've had of late. Rather than rehash them all, here's some links:
Week 13: (6-9)
Week 12: Thanksgiving picks (5-0) followed by a mediocre Sunday, Part 2: 7-5
but still a winning day.
Week 11: 10-4
Week 10: 9-1 (including my Stone Cold
of the Year)Week 9: 9-6
Week 8: 7-3.
All that is over and won't help you now, so let's see what's on the docket this week.
So - how about some picks?
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Detroit Lions (+11) vs. Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
Yes, I'm back again looking to get my head beat in with the Lions. I just cannot help myself. Here me out, though - no one gave them a shot to win last year in Week 17 against Dallas, yet they did 39-31. Now before you say "Week 17, wasn't that meaningless?" - allow me to remind you that this was the 1PM game that gave Philadelphia the division last year (and also let the Eagles pull all of their starters out after one series). None of that matters a ton for this season, but expect Detroit to throw, throw and throw some more against a Dallas defense that can give up serious points. I know Roy Williams is out, but I still like the top 3 WRs for Detroit this week and KJ out of the backfield. I'm still tempering my expectations but I can't pass up so many points.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (Over 51) - (1 star)
This is a recording..... see above. I expect both teams to get 24 relatively easily, so 27-24 as a baseline is a good start. (I thought about the exotic play of teasing both, but I'll leave that up to the reader to think about).
Green Bay Packers (-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders - (1 star)
Let's see here - pick a good team? Check. Against a bad team? Check. Weather favors you? Check. On a good streak? Check.
Look for Favre to come back and show everyone that he's healthy. Oakland's secondary isn't as formidable as last year, so look for the Pack to get 2 TDs via the air and also run Grant lots inside and out. Whomever the Raiders put out there under center, it shouldn't matter much. Look for the Pack to roll here as they get 3-4 TDs and beat Oakland something like 31-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Over 47 or 48) - (1 star)
I'll be mentioning this game more than once, but suffice it to say right now that I'm seeing the game at 48 in most places but I did find it at 47. Since we're keeping score, guess what number I want here? 47? Correct - but even at 48 I still like it. I'm expecting New England to put up good numbers and also for the Steelers to try and keep pace.
San Diego Chargers (+1) at Tennessee Titans - (1 star)
The Chargers are looking to get on track and continue to push towards the playoffs. I expect the game plan to revolve around someone you may have heard of - a guy named Tomlinson. Haynesworth is questionable for the Titans and Chris Hope is now heading for the IR. As long as they keep Philip Rivers on a short leash and don't ask him to do too much (or possibly make a mistake) the Chargers should take care of this one.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons - (1 star)
I liked this game a bit more with Bush in the lineup, but Stecker and Pierre Thomas will do fine. Atlanta isn't very good, the game is still in a dome, and Atlanta isn't much of a home field advantage. The Saints can still get in the playoffs and even make some noise. The best part for them is that Chris Redman is starting for Atlanta and he will likely make just enough errors for New Orleans to exploit. The game is likely to be high scoring, and in that kind of game I'll take the team with the better QB and WR. That means Brees and Colston take this one in what should be an entertaining game to watch.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (Over 42.5)- (2 stars)
Yeah, there's a theme I guess this week - doubling up on my second game here. Like I just mentioned, points a-plenty in this one. Even if one side struggles, I expect one team to break 30 alone which means the other side only needs 13. That seems pretty safe considering both defenses are struggling. All that said, 31-24 Saints sounds about right.
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 45) - (2 stars)
This game was at 48 on Friday and has since sunk to 45 with the possible change at QB for the Rams (from Marc Bulger to Brock Berlin). The good news here is that both teams have big play offenses and their defenses are suspect at best. Even if Berlin starts, Torry Holt and Steven Jackson will take short passes and have a chance to break one or two for scores. The ground games for both can also carry the load, so I'm expecting a good amount of scoring here even if Berlin gets his first career start. Looks like the movement in the line here is actually a bonus.
Cleveland Browns (-3) at New York Jets - (2 stars)
The Jets could be without both of their starting WRs, and it seems like at least Cotchery is out. Even if Coles plays he won't be at full strength. Cleveland hasn't been very good at stopping people on defense this year, but that's where the ineptitude of the Jets comes into play. The Browns will certainly get their fair share and then some, but the Jets will continue to struggle. The good news for Jets fans is that this game will be a distant memory quickly with the Patriots looming on the horizon. Browns by double-digits.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)
Garcia is likely back (but Galloway may not be at full strength), but the good news is that this game is about Earnest Graham and ball control. As long as the Tampa secondary can contain Andre Johnson, as they should, this game will be played at a fast pace with the Bucs controlling the ball and the clock. Look for Graham to be the workhorse again as he might get 40 carries if Tampa has their way. I expect the Bucs to do just enough to win and cover that 3.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
New England Patriots (-10.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - (3 stars)
Suddenly the Patriots are a tough team to cover double-digit lines, and I'm not buying it this week. The key here is that the game opened at NE -15.5 - meaning Vegas liked the Pats by more that two touchdowns. I'm tending to agree.
So what's the deal on this one? Pretty simple. New England struggled (or as best as they can seem to struggle) against a good Eagles effort and another in Baltimore. Pittsburgh put up decent back to back games in bad weather - but at home. Has anyone noticed that the Steelers struggle on the road? How about the fact that if the Pats take care of business this week they have clear sailing to 15-0 with gimmes vs. the Jets and Miami? I see Randy Moss and company sending yet another message to the rest of the AFC that that Patriots are back and better than ever. NE 41-20.
:IBTL: of the Week - New England Patriots
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants win last week and are 8-4, and the Eagles lost to Seattle to fall to 5-7.... yet Philly is favored? Huh? Sure McNabb is back and there are questions about the Giants run game, but when aren't there these issues for them this year? Historically the Giants and Eagles tend to play close games and I expect it again this week. I'm not touching it.
Enjoy.
If only it were this easy. That's why 99% of the people lose at sports betting.
If only it were this easy. That's why 99% of the people lose at sports betting.
That $1,800 will come in very handy for the holiday
That $1,800 will come in very handy for the holiday
