Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a bad Week 13, I stepped it up and fired back in a big way - if you like winning picks. After hitting with New England with my
of the Week I rolled to 12-4-1 to up my record to 65-32-1 since Week 8, a winning percentage of 67%. Find that kind of record from the other "experts" out there. Somebody stop me from starting a 30 minute pseudo-infomercial on Saturday Morning Cable with a Pay Per Call Hotline Number (not that the thought has crossed my mind 
), but you feel what I'm sayin'.
Don't believe me? Check it out:
Week 14: 12-4-1
Week 13: (6-9)
Week 12: Thanksgiving picks (5-0) followed by a mediocre Sunday, Part 2: 7-5
but still a winning day.
Week 11: 10-4
Week 10: 9-1 (including my Stone Cold
of the Year)
Week 9: 9-6
Week 8: 7-3.
I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week. Unfortunately that put me in a 0-2 hole as Denver didn't show up, so let's try and recover some with the rest of the week.
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Arizona Cardinals (+4) at New Orleans Saints - (1 star)
Kurt Warner was down to just Bryant Johnson, Leonard Pope and a Larry Fitzgerald that was strapped into a girdle (how's that for a lovely image this morning - I guess it's better than Tony Siragusa in a girdle) - yet somehow Warner and the Cards kept on moving the offense through the air. Jerheme Urban? Steve Breaston? Ben Patrick? Sounds like 3 guys who have never been in my kitchen. This just goes to show that Warner can move the ball on nearly any defense, and that's exactly what the Saints don't have - a defense. New Orleans is throwing early and often to Colston and company, and I fully expect 80+ passes (possibly 90-100) in this game as it takes over 4 hours to complete. Brees and Warner will be fantasy monsters, but I'll take the team with both Fitz and Boldin trying to play, the team with the better RB (Edge over Aaron Stecker) and most importantly, the one with the better defense. Both teams are in the postseason hunt, but I'll say Cardinals win by 7.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (OVER 47)- (1 star)
See above for more, but both teams can't stop good offenses. 31-24 Arizona.
Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. Philadelphia Eagles - (1 star)
If you liked them at 13 when the weak started, you have to really love them at 10 right now. Aside from Westbrook, the Eagles are not able to do much on offense. LJ Smith is out and Reggie Brown (who isn't a world-beater by any stretch) is also less than 100%. So is Brian Dawkins, not what Eagles fans want to hear. TO should score twice as he shows up his former team yet again and Witten and Romo continue to roll. Marion Barber should also find paydirt as the Cowboys gear up for January. Dallas big here, say 38-20.
Minnesota Vikings (-10) vs. Chicago Bears - (1 star)
The last time these two met, the only thing that stopped Adrian Peterson was the end zone. Minnesota won 34-31 as ADP had 224 yards - and that was with a healthier Bears defense and at Soldier Field. Starting to see what I'm seeing now? Chester Taylor and ADP both crack 100 yards in this one as the Monday Night Football crowd get to see what real fans have been seeing all year long regarding the rookie of the year. The only downsides I see in this one are Jaws saying "The Cashier" too much (which is any mention more than zero times) and Tony K stumbling over how to pronounce "Tarvaris".
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Arizona Cardinals (+10) at New Orleans Saints (OVER 41)- (2 stars)
Have to couple these, don't I? Tease with 6 both ways.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (OVER 39.5) - (2 stars)
Well the weather outside is frightful, but the total is soooo delightful.... How can you not take 39.5 with these two? I don't care if it snows. This is CLEVELAND and BUFFALO. Do you think, maybe, these teams know how to play in the snow? Just a little? Plus both teams have solid run games and good #1 WRs which is what really matters. Both teams should get to 20 points, which is more than enough.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8) at San Francisco 49ers - (2 stars)
Merry Christmas! This game moved from a "9" to an "8", and I have no idea why. Shuan Hill is about as relevant to pro football as Benny Hill is to Shakespeare. But seriously folks, the Bengals are peaking at just the right time - for Vegas, that is. The offense does well when there is a dry track, and they finally will have one again. Plus all the eyes of the league will be on this game as no other game will be on, and everyone will be holding their ears and Bryant Gumbel returns to make some calls. Or not. My bad. Bengals have plenty of offense and just enough opportunism in their secondary to create turnovers and a short field. I like Gore and Battle in this one, but that's not enough. Bengals 27-13.
Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at St. Louis Rams - (2 stars)
Another gift under the tree! This line moved the right way, at least for me, as it came down from a 10 to an 8.5. This probably is reflective of Marc Bulger getting the start, but I don't hold much confidence in him seeing the finish. The Pack can run it with Grant, throw it to Lee.... does any of this sound like a Civil War reenactment to you? Anyway, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders and the Rams continue to be a major disappointment. Al Harris can stop (or at least help to contain) Torry Holt and the linebackers should corral Steven Jackson. Green Bay should win by double digits here.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers - (2 stars)
I've thought that the Seahawks had trouble traveling back East, but that's not been the case as they took care of Philadelphia handily when they went coast-to-coast. Now here they go again with another long road trip, but the good news is that they are facing a much weaker team in Carolina. I like Matt Moore, but the Seahawks are playing far too good for him at this point in his career. Steve Smith owners will be crying once again as Seattle pushes for a #3 seed. Seahawks by 14 or more.
Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (OVER 45.5) - (2 stars)
Questions about Rivers and Gates have pushed this number down, but even Billy Volek can get 20 points against the Lions. The bigger issue is if the defense can hold up against Detroit. I see both teams getting 21 in this game, which makes me feel like a 27-24 game is a pretty good number. Both defenses and kick return teams are opportunistic so I think the total is in serious jeopardy.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Detroit Lions (+11) at San Diego Chargers - (3 stars)
Let's see if I have this right. The Chargers are struggling all year, but now they're on a roll. Is that what beating the Ravens at home, then the terrible Chiefs, and then a Titans team that is falling apart (with one of the bigger QB disappointments since, well, Philip Rivers) is called? Sure they are 8-5, but let's be real here. Their defense is overrated and now they don't have Shawne Merriman or Luis Castillo. That lack of a pass rush will give Kitna the time he needs to pick the relatively untested secondary apart. (Hey Jon, just throw AWAY from Cromartie). The bad news is that Gates is 50-50 for San Diego. The worse news? It sounds like the Chargers will have Rivers. LT2 will do his best, but I really love the Lions to cover this generous amount of points.
Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders - (3 stars)
Take away the Ravens and insert the Raiders, and you have a pretty close approximation to this game. Fargas will do his best Willis McGahee impression, but he's no Frank Caliendo. Look for another team picture oppurtunity for the Colts as the starters enjoy some nice Gatorade during the fourth quarter from the bench. They may see some guy named Russell wearing Black and Silver, but they'll hardly care. Addai, Wayne, Clark, and even Gonzalez have excellent chances to score. The Colts roll. Only Fargas is a decent play with Indy banged up some on defense, but it won't nearly be enough.
:IBTL: of the Week - Indianapolis.
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New England Patriots (-21 and falling) vs. New York Jets
Weather. Video tape. Intrigue. Asterisks. While the Pats should roll here, the weather has pushed New England down from a 26-point favorite to just 21 (21.5 on occasion) and the total down from 52 to 46. That's not good signs. Add in all the emotion to this game and I cannot see a clear side to this one. On a dry track the Patriots could score 70, but in bad weather the Jets may even be able to keep pace - for a while. The Jets will try and run like the Ravens did against them and keep the number of possessions down for New England, but it is really questionable if it will be enough. I'll pass.
Merry *-Mas Everyone.
Enjoy.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a bad Week 13, I stepped it up and fired back in a big way - if you like winning picks. After hitting with New England with my
of the Week I rolled to 12-4-1 to up my record to 65-32-1 since Week 8, a winning percentage of 67%. Find that kind of record from the other "experts" out there. Somebody stop me from starting a 30 minute pseudo-infomercial on Saturday Morning Cable with a Pay Per Call Hotline Number (not that the thought has crossed my mind ), but you feel what I'm sayin'. Don't believe me? Check it out:
Week 14: 12-4-1
Week 13: (6-9)
Week 12: Thanksgiving picks (5-0) followed by a mediocre Sunday, Part 2: 7-5
but still a winning day.
Week 11: 10-4
Week 10: 9-1 (including my Stone Cold
of the Year)Week 9: 9-6
Week 8: 7-3.
I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week. Unfortunately that put me in a 0-2 hole as Denver didn't show up, so let's try and recover some with the rest of the week.
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Arizona Cardinals (+4) at New Orleans Saints - (1 star)
Kurt Warner was down to just Bryant Johnson, Leonard Pope and a Larry Fitzgerald that was strapped into a girdle (how's that for a lovely image this morning - I guess it's better than Tony Siragusa in a girdle) - yet somehow Warner and the Cards kept on moving the offense through the air. Jerheme Urban? Steve Breaston? Ben Patrick? Sounds like 3 guys who have never been in my kitchen. This just goes to show that Warner can move the ball on nearly any defense, and that's exactly what the Saints don't have - a defense. New Orleans is throwing early and often to Colston and company, and I fully expect 80+ passes (possibly 90-100) in this game as it takes over 4 hours to complete. Brees and Warner will be fantasy monsters, but I'll take the team with both Fitz and Boldin trying to play, the team with the better RB (Edge over Aaron Stecker) and most importantly, the one with the better defense. Both teams are in the postseason hunt, but I'll say Cardinals win by 7.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (OVER 47)- (1 star)
See above for more, but both teams can't stop good offenses. 31-24 Arizona.
Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. Philadelphia Eagles - (1 star)
If you liked them at 13 when the weak started, you have to really love them at 10 right now. Aside from Westbrook, the Eagles are not able to do much on offense. LJ Smith is out and Reggie Brown (who isn't a world-beater by any stretch) is also less than 100%. So is Brian Dawkins, not what Eagles fans want to hear. TO should score twice as he shows up his former team yet again and Witten and Romo continue to roll. Marion Barber should also find paydirt as the Cowboys gear up for January. Dallas big here, say 38-20.
Minnesota Vikings (-10) vs. Chicago Bears - (1 star)
The last time these two met, the only thing that stopped Adrian Peterson was the end zone. Minnesota won 34-31 as ADP had 224 yards - and that was with a healthier Bears defense and at Soldier Field. Starting to see what I'm seeing now? Chester Taylor and ADP both crack 100 yards in this one as the Monday Night Football crowd get to see what real fans have been seeing all year long regarding the rookie of the year. The only downsides I see in this one are Jaws saying "The Cashier" too much (which is any mention more than zero times) and Tony K stumbling over how to pronounce "Tarvaris".
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Arizona Cardinals (+10) at New Orleans Saints (OVER 41)- (2 stars)
Have to couple these, don't I? Tease with 6 both ways.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (OVER 39.5) - (2 stars)
Well the weather outside is frightful, but the total is soooo delightful.... How can you not take 39.5 with these two? I don't care if it snows. This is CLEVELAND and BUFFALO. Do you think, maybe, these teams know how to play in the snow? Just a little? Plus both teams have solid run games and good #1 WRs which is what really matters. Both teams should get to 20 points, which is more than enough.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8) at San Francisco 49ers - (2 stars)
Merry Christmas! This game moved from a "9" to an "8", and I have no idea why. Shuan Hill is about as relevant to pro football as Benny Hill is to Shakespeare. But seriously folks, the Bengals are peaking at just the right time - for Vegas, that is. The offense does well when there is a dry track, and they finally will have one again. Plus all the eyes of the league will be on this game as no other game will be on, and everyone will be holding their ears and Bryant Gumbel returns to make some calls. Or not. My bad. Bengals have plenty of offense and just enough opportunism in their secondary to create turnovers and a short field. I like Gore and Battle in this one, but that's not enough. Bengals 27-13.
Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at St. Louis Rams - (2 stars)
Another gift under the tree! This line moved the right way, at least for me, as it came down from a 10 to an 8.5. This probably is reflective of Marc Bulger getting the start, but I don't hold much confidence in him seeing the finish. The Pack can run it with Grant, throw it to Lee.... does any of this sound like a Civil War reenactment to you? Anyway, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders and the Rams continue to be a major disappointment. Al Harris can stop (or at least help to contain) Torry Holt and the linebackers should corral Steven Jackson. Green Bay should win by double digits here.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers - (2 stars)
I've thought that the Seahawks had trouble traveling back East, but that's not been the case as they took care of Philadelphia handily when they went coast-to-coast. Now here they go again with another long road trip, but the good news is that they are facing a much weaker team in Carolina. I like Matt Moore, but the Seahawks are playing far too good for him at this point in his career. Steve Smith owners will be crying once again as Seattle pushes for a #3 seed. Seahawks by 14 or more.
Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (OVER 45.5) - (2 stars)
Questions about Rivers and Gates have pushed this number down, but even Billy Volek can get 20 points against the Lions. The bigger issue is if the defense can hold up against Detroit. I see both teams getting 21 in this game, which makes me feel like a 27-24 game is a pretty good number. Both defenses and kick return teams are opportunistic so I think the total is in serious jeopardy.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Detroit Lions (+11) at San Diego Chargers - (3 stars)
Let's see if I have this right. The Chargers are struggling all year, but now they're on a roll. Is that what beating the Ravens at home, then the terrible Chiefs, and then a Titans team that is falling apart (with one of the bigger QB disappointments since, well, Philip Rivers) is called? Sure they are 8-5, but let's be real here. Their defense is overrated and now they don't have Shawne Merriman or Luis Castillo. That lack of a pass rush will give Kitna the time he needs to pick the relatively untested secondary apart. (Hey Jon, just throw AWAY from Cromartie). The bad news is that Gates is 50-50 for San Diego. The worse news? It sounds like the Chargers will have Rivers. LT2 will do his best, but I really love the Lions to cover this generous amount of points.
Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders - (3 stars)
Take away the Ravens and insert the Raiders, and you have a pretty close approximation to this game. Fargas will do his best Willis McGahee impression, but he's no Frank Caliendo. Look for another team picture oppurtunity for the Colts as the starters enjoy some nice Gatorade during the fourth quarter from the bench. They may see some guy named Russell wearing Black and Silver, but they'll hardly care. Addai, Wayne, Clark, and even Gonzalez have excellent chances to score. The Colts roll. Only Fargas is a decent play with Indy banged up some on defense, but it won't nearly be enough.
:IBTL: of the Week - Indianapolis.
***SUCKER BET GAME***
New England Patriots (-21 and falling) vs. New York Jets
Weather. Video tape. Intrigue. Asterisks. While the Pats should roll here, the weather has pushed New England down from a 26-point favorite to just 21 (21.5 on occasion) and the total down from 52 to 46. That's not good signs. Add in all the emotion to this game and I cannot see a clear side to this one. On a dry track the Patriots could score 70, but in bad weather the Jets may even be able to keep pace - for a while. The Jets will try and run like the Ravens did against them and keep the number of possessions down for New England, but it is really questionable if it will be enough. I'll pass.
Merry *-Mas Everyone.
Enjoy.
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to you.....Glad you enjoyed that.
No, he's not an alias of mine.....
Good luck to you and to everyone else.3 Nights of football. 
