Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a terrible Week 15, where I gave up a lot of my "good record" by going a miserable 7-15, I've realized that I need to take stock and reassess where I'm at.
I'm still well above 50%, but the past is the past. Sure I'm 72-47-1 since Week 8, but that's not going to make anyone who jumped on board last week happy. Maybe I should scale back on some comedy and work on some accuracy - which I certainly will try and do - but this is all for fun, right? I'm allowed to have some fun with my picks, so that's still my plan.
We all have bad weeks, and as the end of the regular season comes the games can get a little tougher. I thought about scaling back the number of picks for this week, but I actually have pretty strong opinions (beyond never touching the Bengals or Broncos again). I do have a theme which I'll announce at the end, but let's see if you can figure it out.
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (OVER 42.5) (SATURDAY GAME) - (1 star)
This game scares me from a "pick the favorite" point of view. I think Romo bounces back strong and gets the ball in the hands of TO and Witten, and the typical Dallas recipe should ensue - Run the ball ineffectively early with Julius Jones, decide to throw and score in the 2nd and 3rd, then close the game with MB3 who should be starting. Rinse, repeat. The problem I have with this script is the Carolina quarter back - Matt Moore. While he is very young and inexperienced, there's still a chance of the "look what you should have done to keep me" revenge factor possible here. Plus, the Cowboys are VERY suspect on defense vs. the pass and putting Hamlin back there with no Roy Williams in the box will create problems. I could see Steve Smith and Jeff King doing well in this game, which makes me think that the total is in jeopardy - so I'm taking the over.
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) vs. Washington Redskins - (1 star)
The Redskins are without Rocky McIntosh, and while I like the next man up (H B Blades), look for both Chester Taylor and ADP to be very effective. The Vikings have a simple game plan - run the ball with ADP, and if need be throw on 3rd down with Taylor in the game. On defense, they will stuff Portis and force Todd Collins to beat them - which shouldn't happen. The problem with this is if Tarvaris gets too creative and tries to force some throws - which kept the Bears in the game way too much last week. I expect Childress to fix that problem.
The biggest myth in the NFL is that the Vikings passing defense is bad. Actually, they are average but get thrown on more than anyone else because they are so good against the run. Look for the Vikings to score on defense and pull away on a national stage once again - ensuring them of a near-certain playoff game.
Miami Dolphins (+22.5) vs. New England Patriots - (1 star)
Simple math here. After the Pats were solid
's against the number early on, they've struggled to cover some of the games (aside from Pittsburgh). The Pats will still win this game, but they are also in self-preservation mode as well in getting ready for the real season. The only problem I have with this pick - and what prevents it from being a much higher ranking of a pick (more stars) - is that Brady is going for the record. He already has the Pro Bowl, but the more important "Five-oh" that he is concerned with is the most TD passes in a season record. I think he gets 3 or 4 this week, so that means Cleo Lemon must get some points for the 'fins to cover. You can see why I'd worry. I still think that it happens and the Pats go 15-0 by a score of about 31-10, but it will be close.
New York Giants (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills - (1 star)
The Giants HAVE to win this game to lock up a trip into the second season - because the Patriots (and 16-0) loom next Saturday night. The last thing the Giants want to have to contend with is a final game against New England to try and get into the playoffs. Considering how often they have collapsed in the second half of the season in recent years, they don't want this to happen again. They need a win to get some momentum back, and they also want the chance to rest some guys against the Patriots - a highly unlikely victory. Buffalo's role is purely spoiler, a role they are all too familiar with in recent years. The concerns with this game are the weather and picking a struggling team limping towards January, but I still like the Giants to grab a win here.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Cleveland Browns(-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals - (2 stars)
That big shiny object in the middle of Riverfront Stadium is a giant fork - because the Bengals are done. I'm also done with them as they don't seem to know how to run any offense any longer. Anyone who has seen the end of the last two Bengals game (I'm sorry) know what I'm talking about. They couldn't take care of the 49ers and the Rams the past two weeks, and they make Shaun Hill look like Joe Montana - a sentence that should NEVER be written ever again. The Bengals cannot play defense and right now Marvin Lewis is doing a rain dance in the middle of Ohio. Sorry Marv, it won't help. Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow have a lot of points that they didn't get to score last week all bottled up and ready for this one. Jamal Lewis also is licking his chops for the Bengals, and barring a massive weather problem this could be a blowout. I've heard that winds and rain are expected, which keeps this from being a "3 star" for this week - but the Browns see the Bengals as a stepping stone to the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (OVER 43) - (2 stars)
This just in - the Lions defense is bad. Like Memphis bad. They made Darren Sproles look like LT2 - think about that for a minute. Did you know who Darren Sproles was before last week? If you did, you either spend way too much time on fantasy football (guilty) or you are related to the Sprole family (Hi Mrs. Sproles). The next candidate? Brodie Croyle, come on down! You're the next FedEx Air Player of the Week Candidate that won't win! Behind Door #2 is Kolby Smith, who will tear the Lions up as he racks up another 100-yard game. Jon Kitna will throw to Shaun McDonald and Calvin Johnson. The only hope for Detroit is to run the ball with Kevin Jones and slow the game down - but let's remember the Mike Martz factor here. This pick could be covered by halftime.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Jacksonville Jaguars (-13) vs. Oakland Raiders - (3 stars)
The Jags are pushing for the playoffs, and the Raiders are playing musical quarterbacks - and running backs. Both teams will employ two RBs, but the difference here is that both Fred Taylor and MB3 will put up good numbers. The Jags will stuff both Dominic Rhodes and LaMont Jordan - who should be wearing a different jersey next year. Jacksonville will get their 20+ points and the Raiders will struggle to get to 10. JaMarcus will be playing more than expected as his pseudo-debut preps him for a Week 17 start, but it doesn't matter much. The Oakland defense will struggle to stop both rushers as Fred Taylor shows everyone why he should have been first voted to the Pro Bowl. Jags by 17 or more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers - (3 stars)
Jeff Garcia comes back to Candlestick / 3Com / Monster Park once again, and this time he is bringing reinforcements. Joey Galloway and Earnest Graham will also show everyone why they should have been considered more for the Pro Bowl and Tampa Bay pushes to get the #3 seed in the NFC - which ironically may be the worst spot if Minnesota gets in as the #6 team. The secondary is about 10x harder than the Bengals defense, so the real Shaun Hill will be on display. Frank Gore will do his best, but it won't be enough. Bucs by 2+ scores.
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens - (3 stars)
In case you haven't heard, the Ravens have a new quarterback - and it isn't Johnny U. Troy Smith - remember him? He won a nice trophy in college - will be starting for the Ravens this week. He gets two targets this week - Derrick Mason, master of the five yard out, and Mark Clayton - who is seen more frequently on a milk carton than in the end zone. Todd Heap? Um, no. See you next year. But wait - Devard Darling is playing! Ok, moving right along.....
As for Seattle, Bobby Engram is pushing for several records. He just got his first ever 1,000 yard season and is a few catches away from the all-time Seahawk season reception record. Matt Hasselbeck is also chasing his own QB TD and yardage records, and all should fall here. Oh yeah, Ray Lewis won't be playing either. Ravens fans, go get some shopping done.
:IBTL: of the Week - Seattle Seahawks.
***SUCKER BET GAME***
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Yes the Saints are playing for the playoffs, but the Eagles inexplicably are still playing hard. Philly is 6-8 and out of it, yet they won't quit. Westbrook will play hard, as will Donovan McNabb, but the Saints have a ton more to play for. If they can win out, they can almost ensure a playoff spot. It won't be easy, but this week they know that they are in a "must win". Drew Brees is on fire, but the Eagles just shut down the Cowboys. I'm going back and forth on this one, so I'm staying far, far away.
***THEME OF THE WEEK***
Did you get it? I tried to make it easy. The theme is the source of my trying to get teams that have something to play for here - and that's the playoffs. All the picks this week are for teams that have something still at stake (mostly, Miami, not so much). That's the trick now - find the teams that should win and why.
Enjoy.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a terrible Week 15, where I gave up a lot of my "good record" by going a miserable 7-15, I've realized that I need to take stock and reassess where I'm at.
I'm still well above 50%, but the past is the past. Sure I'm 72-47-1 since Week 8, but that's not going to make anyone who jumped on board last week happy. Maybe I should scale back on some comedy and work on some accuracy - which I certainly will try and do - but this is all for fun, right? I'm allowed to have some fun with my picks, so that's still my plan.
We all have bad weeks, and as the end of the regular season comes the games can get a little tougher. I thought about scaling back the number of picks for this week, but I actually have pretty strong opinions (beyond never touching the Bengals or Broncos again). I do have a theme which I'll announce at the end, but let's see if you can figure it out.
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (OVER 42.5) (SATURDAY GAME) - (1 star)
This game scares me from a "pick the favorite" point of view. I think Romo bounces back strong and gets the ball in the hands of TO and Witten, and the typical Dallas recipe should ensue - Run the ball ineffectively early with Julius Jones, decide to throw and score in the 2nd and 3rd, then close the game with MB3 who should be starting. Rinse, repeat. The problem I have with this script is the Carolina quarter back - Matt Moore. While he is very young and inexperienced, there's still a chance of the "look what you should have done to keep me" revenge factor possible here. Plus, the Cowboys are VERY suspect on defense vs. the pass and putting Hamlin back there with no Roy Williams in the box will create problems. I could see Steve Smith and Jeff King doing well in this game, which makes me think that the total is in jeopardy - so I'm taking the over.
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) vs. Washington Redskins - (1 star)
The Redskins are without Rocky McIntosh, and while I like the next man up (H B Blades), look for both Chester Taylor and ADP to be very effective. The Vikings have a simple game plan - run the ball with ADP, and if need be throw on 3rd down with Taylor in the game. On defense, they will stuff Portis and force Todd Collins to beat them - which shouldn't happen. The problem with this is if Tarvaris gets too creative and tries to force some throws - which kept the Bears in the game way too much last week. I expect Childress to fix that problem.
The biggest myth in the NFL is that the Vikings passing defense is bad. Actually, they are average but get thrown on more than anyone else because they are so good against the run. Look for the Vikings to score on defense and pull away on a national stage once again - ensuring them of a near-certain playoff game.
Miami Dolphins (+22.5) vs. New England Patriots - (1 star)
Simple math here. After the Pats were solid
's against the number early on, they've struggled to cover some of the games (aside from Pittsburgh). The Pats will still win this game, but they are also in self-preservation mode as well in getting ready for the real season. The only problem I have with this pick - and what prevents it from being a much higher ranking of a pick (more stars) - is that Brady is going for the record. He already has the Pro Bowl, but the more important "Five-oh" that he is concerned with is the most TD passes in a season record. I think he gets 3 or 4 this week, so that means Cleo Lemon must get some points for the 'fins to cover. You can see why I'd worry. I still think that it happens and the Pats go 15-0 by a score of about 31-10, but it will be close.New York Giants (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills - (1 star)
The Giants HAVE to win this game to lock up a trip into the second season - because the Patriots (and 16-0) loom next Saturday night. The last thing the Giants want to have to contend with is a final game against New England to try and get into the playoffs. Considering how often they have collapsed in the second half of the season in recent years, they don't want this to happen again. They need a win to get some momentum back, and they also want the chance to rest some guys against the Patriots - a highly unlikely victory. Buffalo's role is purely spoiler, a role they are all too familiar with in recent years. The concerns with this game are the weather and picking a struggling team limping towards January, but I still like the Giants to grab a win here.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Cleveland Browns(-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals - (2 stars)
That big shiny object in the middle of Riverfront Stadium is a giant fork - because the Bengals are done. I'm also done with them as they don't seem to know how to run any offense any longer. Anyone who has seen the end of the last two Bengals game (I'm sorry) know what I'm talking about. They couldn't take care of the 49ers and the Rams the past two weeks, and they make Shaun Hill look like Joe Montana - a sentence that should NEVER be written ever again. The Bengals cannot play defense and right now Marvin Lewis is doing a rain dance in the middle of Ohio. Sorry Marv, it won't help. Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow have a lot of points that they didn't get to score last week all bottled up and ready for this one. Jamal Lewis also is licking his chops for the Bengals, and barring a massive weather problem this could be a blowout. I've heard that winds and rain are expected, which keeps this from being a "3 star" for this week - but the Browns see the Bengals as a stepping stone to the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (OVER 43) - (2 stars)
This just in - the Lions defense is bad. Like Memphis bad. They made Darren Sproles look like LT2 - think about that for a minute. Did you know who Darren Sproles was before last week? If you did, you either spend way too much time on fantasy football (guilty) or you are related to the Sprole family (Hi Mrs. Sproles). The next candidate? Brodie Croyle, come on down! You're the next FedEx Air Player of the Week Candidate that won't win! Behind Door #2 is Kolby Smith, who will tear the Lions up as he racks up another 100-yard game. Jon Kitna will throw to Shaun McDonald and Calvin Johnson. The only hope for Detroit is to run the ball with Kevin Jones and slow the game down - but let's remember the Mike Martz factor here. This pick could be covered by halftime.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Jacksonville Jaguars (-13) vs. Oakland Raiders - (3 stars)
The Jags are pushing for the playoffs, and the Raiders are playing musical quarterbacks - and running backs. Both teams will employ two RBs, but the difference here is that both Fred Taylor and MB3 will put up good numbers. The Jags will stuff both Dominic Rhodes and LaMont Jordan - who should be wearing a different jersey next year. Jacksonville will get their 20+ points and the Raiders will struggle to get to 10. JaMarcus will be playing more than expected as his pseudo-debut preps him for a Week 17 start, but it doesn't matter much. The Oakland defense will struggle to stop both rushers as Fred Taylor shows everyone why he should have been first voted to the Pro Bowl. Jags by 17 or more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers - (3 stars)
Jeff Garcia comes back to Candlestick / 3Com / Monster Park once again, and this time he is bringing reinforcements. Joey Galloway and Earnest Graham will also show everyone why they should have been considered more for the Pro Bowl and Tampa Bay pushes to get the #3 seed in the NFC - which ironically may be the worst spot if Minnesota gets in as the #6 team. The secondary is about 10x harder than the Bengals defense, so the real Shaun Hill will be on display. Frank Gore will do his best, but it won't be enough. Bucs by 2+ scores.
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens - (3 stars)
In case you haven't heard, the Ravens have a new quarterback - and it isn't Johnny U. Troy Smith - remember him? He won a nice trophy in college - will be starting for the Ravens this week. He gets two targets this week - Derrick Mason, master of the five yard out, and Mark Clayton - who is seen more frequently on a milk carton than in the end zone. Todd Heap? Um, no. See you next year. But wait - Devard Darling is playing! Ok, moving right along.....
As for Seattle, Bobby Engram is pushing for several records. He just got his first ever 1,000 yard season and is a few catches away from the all-time Seahawk season reception record. Matt Hasselbeck is also chasing his own QB TD and yardage records, and all should fall here. Oh yeah, Ray Lewis won't be playing either. Ravens fans, go get some shopping done.
:IBTL: of the Week - Seattle Seahawks.
***SUCKER BET GAME***
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Yes the Saints are playing for the playoffs, but the Eagles inexplicably are still playing hard. Philly is 6-8 and out of it, yet they won't quit. Westbrook will play hard, as will Donovan McNabb, but the Saints have a ton more to play for. If they can win out, they can almost ensure a playoff spot. It won't be easy, but this week they know that they are in a "must win". Drew Brees is on fire, but the Eagles just shut down the Cowboys. I'm going back and forth on this one, so I'm staying far, far away.
***THEME OF THE WEEK***
Did you get it? I tried to make it easy. The theme is the source of my trying to get teams that have something to play for here - and that's the playoffs. All the picks this week are for teams that have something still at stake (mostly, Miami, not so much). That's the trick now - find the teams that should win and why.
Enjoy.
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As for Seattle's motivation, they need to correct their abysmal performance vs. Carolina last week and get back on the winning track. Add in that they want to be able to face their choice of Minn, NYG or NO should the scenarios play out that way (it'll be tough to predict, I know) but a victory has them keeping pace wiht TB for the #3 spot. Tampa / Seattle and two wildcards - it'll be hard to rest anyone and try and predict who they will face in Round 1 of the playoffs - but at least they'll have the option.Mostly though Hasselbeck and company needs to get back to their winning ways, especially if Holmgren wants to rest anyone in Week 17.
