Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a pretty good regular season (despite a miserable Week 17), I started slowly out of the gate with the Wild Card Pickshttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=376035 - only going for 4 stars and 3 picks. I did manage to go 3-1, which is a nice start, but it pales in comparison to what I have in store for this week.
This week is the Divisional Round, otherwise known as the round without a clear name (not Wild Card, but not Championship). The best thing about this weekend is also the worst - there are four good games on the docket, but it is also the last time we will see the NFL playing this many games until next September. What that also means is that if you are "playing" these games, it is likely the last and best chance for you to have some good picks and games. I personally don't think that the picks next weekend or for Super Bowl XLII will be very good - but I do know for a fact that having only 3 meaningful games left this year means that this weekend is pretty big.
So I'm going to go at these games a little differently, which will mean that there's a lot more at stake, and I will be touching each and every game in some way - so let's get to it and have some fun.
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New England Patriots (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (SATURDAY GAME) - (1 star)
Jacksonville can run, Jacksonville is hot, Jacksonville has the best chance to go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots - Blah, blah, blah. I've heard this all year, and on both sides - for New Engand and the Jaguars. Jacksonville is hot, and they are playing pretty well, and New England has not blown anyone away since before the Eagles game.
Everyone is expecting that Jacksonville will go right at the Patriots in a similar gameplan as Philly or the Jets or the Ravens used, and I expect that as well - after all, the linebackers for the Pats are older and the run defense is their weakness. This makes sense for the Jags to approach New England this way, as Fred Taylor and MJD are their best offensive weapons. Unfortunately, Bill Belichick knows this too. I expect the Pats to run blitz early on to force some third and longs and neutralize Taylor and MJD - forcing the Jags to use Garrard as a playmaker, which he can be, but not with the likes of Northcutt, Wilford and Reggie Williams (who is also ailing).
Contrary to some other opinions, I do not think that the Patriots will run the ball and show everyone that they can also run the ball. They've done that already in December. Maroney is fine and they will use him when necessary - and that's not this week. What they will do is attack a suspect pass defense that gave up over 300 yards to Big Ben last week. Tom Brady will throw 15+ times in the first half, connecting to Welker at least 5 times before intermission and also hitting Moss for a touchdown. The goal, which they will attain, is to take the Jaguars out of their gameplan by outscoring them quickly early in the contest. Once up by 10-14 points, the Jaguars won't be able to run their normal ball-control, move the chains offense. They will press and Garrard will make mistakes - something he's done lately (5 INTs the last 5 games, with 4 in the last 3, after throwing none in the first 11 weeks of the season).
I think you get the idea. Jacksonville has a chance to play with the Patriots, but it is very slim. New England just has to take care of the ball, something that they did very well before they started to stumble in December. Tom Brady threw 4 of his 8 INTs for the regular season against Baltimore (1), the Jets (1 - Pick 6) and the Dolphins (2). Jacksonville forced 29 regular season turnovers and 4 last week against the Steelers. Barring a huge turnover discrepancy, I'm picking the Pats to win by 17 or more, something along the lines of 31-13. The Over/Under is 49.5-50.5, but I don't feel strongly either way.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (OVER 46) - (1 star)
I'll dissect this game a bit later, but let's just say that the last two scores between these two were 45-35 and 31-20. I'm felling pretty good about the over.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (OVER 42) - (2 stars)
I will give you that these two teams have pretty good defenses and that the game will be played in the cold (who wants to see Josh Brown's hot pants? Chase, do I see your hand?) Both teams can put up points and have done so against even the best defenses in the league. Two Pro Bowl QBs with very capable receivers makes me think that both teams will be able to crack 20 points with relative ease. Both defenses are also opportunistic and each QB has been known to throw an INT now and then. Even better news is that both return teams can take it to the house - at the very least create short fields for their offenses. Lastly, who can discount that both kickers can score quite well, even in bad weather? You're feeling me, I know it. Take the OVER, even if you have to take 43.
As for the game itself, this is the toughest one to call for me - both from a pick perspective and also against the line. The Packers have several advantages (home field / weather and the better ground game) and Seattle may be without D.J. Hackett (or have him at less than 100%). Favre's destined to win this game, but I think Seattle can keep it within a touchdown. With a line of GB -7.5, I'd take Green Bay but I wouldn't feel good about it - so I'm officially staying away from that right now. This game should be a good one.
New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys - (2 stars)
Who would have guessed that Eli Manning would be playing better at this point of the year than Tony Romo, or the Plaxico Burress might be healthier than TO? The Giants are playing well, and the portion of their team that isn't getting the due credit is the defense - which played well above their norm against the Bucs last week. The Cowboys coasted too much at the end of the year, and once Owens was injured in the Carolina game the offense changed entirely. Patrick Crayton is not a #1 option and if a team can cover Witten (or double him) then it is a long, long day for Romo. It gets worse for the Cowboys if Umenyiora and Strahan apply pressure (and watch for Tuck too) that force Witten to stay in and block more. I expect both Fasano and Witten to be on the field at once and if Dallas is smart they will get the ball in Marion Barber III's hands at least 25 times, both carries and with screens. Julius Jones should be out of the game and they play with just MB3 in the backfield with 2 WRs and hope for the best. Can the Giants win outright? Absolutely, but I think the Cowboys can do just enough to win this game, something like 27-24. Dallas must stop the ground game, both Brandon Jacobs and the elusive Ahmad Bradshaw, and force Eli to beat them. I'm expecting another great game and I'll take the team with the better kicker (just what Cowboys fans want - another last second FG attempt).
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Hang On......
****FOUR STAR GAME****
Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) vs. San Diego Chargers - (4 stars)
Talk about disrespect. If it was for a certain North Eastern team, the Colts would be the talk of the league. 13-3 this year as the #2 seed, tied for second-best record in the NFL, and they did something that most people are forgetting that they did 11 months ago. Remember how most seasons they say "and there will be new champions this season" when the defending champ gets knocked off? Well, the champs are still standing, and are probably the least recognized potential repeat champ in recent memory. The world is in love with Patriots Perfection, and Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning are probably loving and hating it all at once. Guess who gets to bear the brunt of the Colts' frustrations this week. That's right, the Bolts from San Diego. The same team that looked terrible for more than a half of football, at home, against the Titans. They barely won 17-6 over a team whose best WR would be the #4 wideout for Indy.
The Chargers are likely to go to Indianapolis without their best receiver (Antonio Gates) and rely solely on LT2 for their offense. So what will Tony Dungy and the Colts do? Stuff the box with Bob Sanders and force Philip Rivers to beat them - yeah, that sounds like a winning option for San Diego. Chris Chambers has helped, but Rivers has regressed this year and even when his WRs at TE are wide open (like against the Titans last week) he doesn't get the ball to his targets early enough for them to get the yards after the catch (YAC) that they could. Vincent Jackson was wide open yet he had to wait for a pass, costing him a touchdown, for example.
Expect the Colts to remind the rest of the AFC and the NFL that there is still a defending champ in the tournament, and they are not going to be dethrowned without a fight. Colts BIG. BIG!!!! 34-10.
(The Over under is 45-46, too close to call, so I pass).
of the Week (and Playoffs) - Indianapolis Colts.
***TEASER TIME***
Ok, time for some fun. I broke down my thoughts on each game, and I gave you five picks. Now I'm going to give you five more in 6 point teaser form, and rank them.
(For those of you unfamiliar with teasers, you can take two teams in a 6-point teaser (or two bets) and get an extra 6 points on each wager. The trick is that you must win both to win the wager. Odds are usually similar to a normal bet.)
Teaser A: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Teaser B: New York Giants (+13.5)
Teaser C: Dallas / Giants (OVER 40)
Teaser D: Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser E: New England Patriots (-7.5)
(Note: I'd prefer "B" and "E" much more with an extra 0.5 (making it Giants +14 and Pats -7) so take that under advisement if you can get that.)
So what's my play here? We're going for fun (or broke) by combining all of them in some way. I'll list them as combinations and "star value" as well as to how I'd lean with each:
***THREE STAR TEASER***
Teaser A + B: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and New York Giants (+13.5)
**TWO STAR TEASERS**
Teaser A + C: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and Dallas / Giants (OVER 40)
Teaser B + C: New York Giants (+13.5) and Dallas / Giants (OVER 40)
*ONE STAR TEASERS*
Teaser A + D: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser A + E: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Teaser B + D: New York Giants (+13.5) and Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser B + E: New York Giants (+13.5) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Teaser C + D: Dallas / Giants (OVER 40) and Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser C + E: Dallas / Giants (OVER 40) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Teaser D + E: Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Of course there are 3-, 4- and even 5-team teasers out there, so that's why I ranked them for you.
Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a pretty good regular season (despite a miserable Week 17), I started slowly out of the gate with the Wild Card Pickshttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=376035 - only going for 4 stars and 3 picks. I did manage to go 3-1, which is a nice start, but it pales in comparison to what I have in store for this week.
This week is the Divisional Round, otherwise known as the round without a clear name (not Wild Card, but not Championship). The best thing about this weekend is also the worst - there are four good games on the docket, but it is also the last time we will see the NFL playing this many games until next September. What that also means is that if you are "playing" these games, it is likely the last and best chance for you to have some good picks and games. I personally don't think that the picks next weekend or for Super Bowl XLII will be very good - but I do know for a fact that having only 3 meaningful games left this year means that this weekend is pretty big.
So I'm going to go at these games a little differently, which will mean that there's a lot more at stake, and I will be touching each and every game in some way - so let's get to it and have some fun.
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New England Patriots (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (SATURDAY GAME) - (1 star)
Jacksonville can run, Jacksonville is hot, Jacksonville has the best chance to go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots - Blah, blah, blah. I've heard this all year, and on both sides - for New Engand and the Jaguars. Jacksonville is hot, and they are playing pretty well, and New England has not blown anyone away since before the Eagles game.
Everyone is expecting that Jacksonville will go right at the Patriots in a similar gameplan as Philly or the Jets or the Ravens used, and I expect that as well - after all, the linebackers for the Pats are older and the run defense is their weakness. This makes sense for the Jags to approach New England this way, as Fred Taylor and MJD are their best offensive weapons. Unfortunately, Bill Belichick knows this too. I expect the Pats to run blitz early on to force some third and longs and neutralize Taylor and MJD - forcing the Jags to use Garrard as a playmaker, which he can be, but not with the likes of Northcutt, Wilford and Reggie Williams (who is also ailing).
Contrary to some other opinions, I do not think that the Patriots will run the ball and show everyone that they can also run the ball. They've done that already in December. Maroney is fine and they will use him when necessary - and that's not this week. What they will do is attack a suspect pass defense that gave up over 300 yards to Big Ben last week. Tom Brady will throw 15+ times in the first half, connecting to Welker at least 5 times before intermission and also hitting Moss for a touchdown. The goal, which they will attain, is to take the Jaguars out of their gameplan by outscoring them quickly early in the contest. Once up by 10-14 points, the Jaguars won't be able to run their normal ball-control, move the chains offense. They will press and Garrard will make mistakes - something he's done lately (5 INTs the last 5 games, with 4 in the last 3, after throwing none in the first 11 weeks of the season).
I think you get the idea. Jacksonville has a chance to play with the Patriots, but it is very slim. New England just has to take care of the ball, something that they did very well before they started to stumble in December. Tom Brady threw 4 of his 8 INTs for the regular season against Baltimore (1), the Jets (1 - Pick 6) and the Dolphins (2). Jacksonville forced 29 regular season turnovers and 4 last week against the Steelers. Barring a huge turnover discrepancy, I'm picking the Pats to win by 17 or more, something along the lines of 31-13. The Over/Under is 49.5-50.5, but I don't feel strongly either way.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (OVER 46) - (1 star)
I'll dissect this game a bit later, but let's just say that the last two scores between these two were 45-35 and 31-20. I'm felling pretty good about the over.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (OVER 42) - (2 stars)
I will give you that these two teams have pretty good defenses and that the game will be played in the cold (who wants to see Josh Brown's hot pants? Chase, do I see your hand?) Both teams can put up points and have done so against even the best defenses in the league. Two Pro Bowl QBs with very capable receivers makes me think that both teams will be able to crack 20 points with relative ease. Both defenses are also opportunistic and each QB has been known to throw an INT now and then. Even better news is that both return teams can take it to the house - at the very least create short fields for their offenses. Lastly, who can discount that both kickers can score quite well, even in bad weather? You're feeling me, I know it. Take the OVER, even if you have to take 43.
As for the game itself, this is the toughest one to call for me - both from a pick perspective and also against the line. The Packers have several advantages (home field / weather and the better ground game) and Seattle may be without D.J. Hackett (or have him at less than 100%). Favre's destined to win this game, but I think Seattle can keep it within a touchdown. With a line of GB -7.5, I'd take Green Bay but I wouldn't feel good about it - so I'm officially staying away from that right now. This game should be a good one.
New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys - (2 stars)
Who would have guessed that Eli Manning would be playing better at this point of the year than Tony Romo, or the Plaxico Burress might be healthier than TO? The Giants are playing well, and the portion of their team that isn't getting the due credit is the defense - which played well above their norm against the Bucs last week. The Cowboys coasted too much at the end of the year, and once Owens was injured in the Carolina game the offense changed entirely. Patrick Crayton is not a #1 option and if a team can cover Witten (or double him) then it is a long, long day for Romo. It gets worse for the Cowboys if Umenyiora and Strahan apply pressure (and watch for Tuck too) that force Witten to stay in and block more. I expect both Fasano and Witten to be on the field at once and if Dallas is smart they will get the ball in Marion Barber III's hands at least 25 times, both carries and with screens. Julius Jones should be out of the game and they play with just MB3 in the backfield with 2 WRs and hope for the best. Can the Giants win outright? Absolutely, but I think the Cowboys can do just enough to win this game, something like 27-24. Dallas must stop the ground game, both Brandon Jacobs and the elusive Ahmad Bradshaw, and force Eli to beat them. I'm expecting another great game and I'll take the team with the better kicker (just what Cowboys fans want - another last second FG attempt).
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Hang On......
****FOUR STAR GAME****
Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) vs. San Diego Chargers - (4 stars)
Talk about disrespect. If it was for a certain North Eastern team, the Colts would be the talk of the league. 13-3 this year as the #2 seed, tied for second-best record in the NFL, and they did something that most people are forgetting that they did 11 months ago. Remember how most seasons they say "and there will be new champions this season" when the defending champ gets knocked off? Well, the champs are still standing, and are probably the least recognized potential repeat champ in recent memory. The world is in love with Patriots Perfection, and Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning are probably loving and hating it all at once. Guess who gets to bear the brunt of the Colts' frustrations this week. That's right, the Bolts from San Diego. The same team that looked terrible for more than a half of football, at home, against the Titans. They barely won 17-6 over a team whose best WR would be the #4 wideout for Indy.
The Chargers are likely to go to Indianapolis without their best receiver (Antonio Gates) and rely solely on LT2 for their offense. So what will Tony Dungy and the Colts do? Stuff the box with Bob Sanders and force Philip Rivers to beat them - yeah, that sounds like a winning option for San Diego. Chris Chambers has helped, but Rivers has regressed this year and even when his WRs at TE are wide open (like against the Titans last week) he doesn't get the ball to his targets early enough for them to get the yards after the catch (YAC) that they could. Vincent Jackson was wide open yet he had to wait for a pass, costing him a touchdown, for example.
Expect the Colts to remind the rest of the AFC and the NFL that there is still a defending champ in the tournament, and they are not going to be dethrowned without a fight. Colts BIG. BIG!!!! 34-10.
(The Over under is 45-46, too close to call, so I pass).
of the Week (and Playoffs) - Indianapolis Colts.***TEASER TIME***
Ok, time for some fun. I broke down my thoughts on each game, and I gave you five picks. Now I'm going to give you five more in 6 point teaser form, and rank them.
(For those of you unfamiliar with teasers, you can take two teams in a 6-point teaser (or two bets) and get an extra 6 points on each wager. The trick is that you must win both to win the wager. Odds are usually similar to a normal bet.)
Teaser A: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Teaser B: New York Giants (+13.5)
Teaser C: Dallas / Giants (OVER 40)
Teaser D: Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser E: New England Patriots (-7.5)
(Note: I'd prefer "B" and "E" much more with an extra 0.5 (making it Giants +14 and Pats -7) so take that under advisement if you can get that.)
So what's my play here? We're going for fun (or broke) by combining all of them in some way. I'll list them as combinations and "star value" as well as to how I'd lean with each:
***THREE STAR TEASER***
Teaser A + B: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and New York Giants (+13.5)
**TWO STAR TEASERS**
Teaser A + C: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and Dallas / Giants (OVER 40)
Teaser B + C: New York Giants (+13.5) and Dallas / Giants (OVER 40)
*ONE STAR TEASERS*
Teaser A + D: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser A + E: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Teaser B + D: New York Giants (+13.5) and Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser B + E: New York Giants (+13.5) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Teaser C + D: Dallas / Giants (OVER 40) and Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36)
Teaser C + E: Dallas / Giants (OVER 40) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Teaser D + E: Seattle / Green Bay (OVER 36) and New England Patriots (-7.5)
Of course there are 3-, 4- and even 5-team teasers out there, so that's why I ranked them for you.
Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Last edited by a moderator:
How do you come up with that BS, seriously?
How do you come up with that BS, seriously?
I think I said this, but either way this is exactly what I expect as well. Make Rivers beat you. Good luck.
of a pick , as you'll ever see.. 
