What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Thinking ahead at the WR position (1 Viewer)

dmac37

Footballguy
Spinoff of the RB topic. What WR do you have stashed for next year or which WR's do you see jumping up in value for 2008 and beyond.

Rice- needs Jackson to keep moving forward with him

L. Robinson- maybe a couple years away but has the tools to become a top WR

M. Welker- Jax needs a go to guy and during pre-season was looking like he could fill that position

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Spinoff of the RB topic. What WR do you have stashed for next year or which WR's do you see jumping up in value for 2008 and beyond.Rice- needs Jackson to keep moving forward with himL. Robinson- maybe a couple years away but has the tools to become a top WRM. Welker- Jax needs a go to guy and during pre-season was looking like he could fill that position
Agree with all these....An even longer shot would be Jason Hill; Martz is going to need someone to step among the SF wr corps...why not him?Id
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ted Ginn Jr

I think that Sapola and Parcells will game plan to get him the ball more. Also, I think that they will have improved QB play, because it can't get any worse.

 
One guy whose stock is extremely low after an injury plagued rookie season is Steve Smith of the Giants. Amani Toomer isn't getting any younger and Burress seems to be getting hurt more often. Smith is a tremendous buy low candidate.

Mike Walker was really tearing it up in Jags camp before they put him on IR. He was catching everything thrown to him. I am still trying to figure out why they felt the need to place him on IR. It appears it wasn't a new injury, but an old one? Just seemed a little weird.

Laurent Robinson got invaluable experience in the 2nd half of the season, something very important for a guy coming from lower level competition in college. With a competent qb throwing the ball, I expect him to get better and better. I see a nice spike in stats next season, and a huge breakthrough in 2009.

James Jones: This guy can play. Aside from his frustrating 2 fumbles v. the Bears, I have been really impressed with him. He isn't a burner, but he runs fantastic routes and has solid hands. Driver should be in Green Bay at least 1 more year, so Jones will have to bide his time, but there is no doubt this guy is going to be a very good starter in the NFL.

 
Devin Hester got alot of work at the end of the year at WR. In leagues that give return yardage/TD pts he could be pretty valuable even if he only mounts to a mediocre WR. Bears say they'd like to use him more often(possible rumors to start him once Muhammed is letgo), Rex could/can get the ball to him deep but Orton/Griese seemed to get him the ball more often on those WR bubble screens(PPR Gold).

 
One guy whose stock is extremely low after an injury plagued rookie season is Steve Smith of the Giants. Amani Toomer isn't getting any younger and Burress seems to be getting hurt more often. Smith is a tremendous buy low candidate.

Mike Walker was really tearing it up in Jags camp before they put him on IR. He was catching everything thrown to him. I am still trying to figure out why they felt the need to place him on IR. It appears it wasn't a new injury, but an old one? Just seemed a little weird.Laurent Robinson got invaluable experience in the 2nd half of the season, something very important for a guy coming from lower level competition in college. With a competent qb throwing the ball, I expect him to get better and better. I see a nice spike in stats next season, and a huge breakthrough in 2009.

James Jones: This guy can play. Aside from his frustrating 2 fumbles v. the Bears, I have been really impressed with him. He isn't a burner, but he runs fantastic routes and has solid hands. Driver should be in Green Bay at least 1 more year, so Jones will have to bide his time, but there is no doubt this guy is going to be a very good starter in the NFL.
IIRC, Walker had a knee injury from college he hadn't completely healed from. Jax may have just tried to stash him to let him heal up and free up a roster spot.

Id

 
One guy whose stock is extremely low after an injury plagued rookie season is Steve Smith of the Giants. Amani Toomer isn't getting any younger and Burress seems to be getting hurt more often. Smith is a tremendous buy low candidate.

Mike Walker was really tearing it up in Jags camp before they put him on IR. He was catching everything thrown to him. I am still trying to figure out why they felt the need to place him on IR. It appears it wasn't a new injury, but an old one? Just seemed a little weird.Laurent Robinson got invaluable experience in the 2nd half of the season, something very important for a guy coming from lower level competition in college. With a competent qb throwing the ball, I expect him to get better and better. I see a nice spike in stats next season, and a huge breakthrough in 2009.

James Jones: This guy can play. Aside from his frustrating 2 fumbles v. the Bears, I have been really impressed with him. He isn't a burner, but he runs fantastic routes and has solid hands. Driver should be in Green Bay at least 1 more year, so Jones will have to bide his time, but there is no doubt this guy is going to be a very good starter in the NFL.
IIRC, Walker had a knee injury from college he hadn't completely healed from. Jax may have just tried to stash him to let him heal up and free up a roster spot.

Id
I knew about the injury, but didn't that happen his Junior year of College? He had a very good senior season, no? It is just weird that they had him go through camp, it looked like he was dominating, and then they put him on IR. Just weird.
 
One guy whose stock is extremely low after an injury plagued rookie season is Steve Smith of the Giants. Amani Toomer isn't getting any younger and Burress seems to be getting hurt more often. Smith is a tremendous buy low candidate.

Mike Walker was really tearing it up in Jags camp before they put him on IR. He was catching everything thrown to him. I am still trying to figure out why they felt the need to place him on IR. It appears it wasn't a new injury, but an old one? Just seemed a little weird.Laurent Robinson got invaluable experience in the 2nd half of the season, something very important for a guy coming from lower level competition in college. With a competent qb throwing the ball, I expect him to get better and better. I see a nice spike in stats next season, and a huge breakthrough in 2009.

James Jones: This guy can play. Aside from his frustrating 2 fumbles v. the Bears, I have been really impressed with him. He isn't a burner, but he runs fantastic routes and has solid hands. Driver should be in Green Bay at least 1 more year, so Jones will have to bide his time, but there is no doubt this guy is going to be a very good starter in the NFL.
IIRC, Walker had a knee injury from college he hadn't completely healed from. Jax may have just tried to stash him to let him heal up and free up a roster spot.

Id
I knew about the injury, but didn't that happen his Junior year of College? He had a very good senior season, no? It is just weird that they had him go through camp, it looked like he was dominating, and then they put him on IR. Just weird.
I believe you're right about the timing of the injury and his senior performance. I know in camp he had to sit out afew times due to swelling in the knee.

And it is odd, but that seems to be Jax's specialty regarding their WR's all the way around.

I'm hopeful Walker breaks out this coming season....

Id

 
Spinoff of the RB topic. What WR do you have stashed for next year or which WR's do you see jumping up in value for 2008 and beyond.Rice- needs Jackson to keep moving forward with himL. Robinson- maybe a couple years away but has the tools to become a top WRM. Welker- Jax needs a go to guy and during pre-season was looking like he could fill that position
Agree with all these....An even longer shot would be Jason Hill; Martz is going to need someone to step among the SF wr core...why not him?Id
Good call with Hill, you can bet at least one WR will be putting up numbers in the Martz sysyem.
 
On Mike Walker from rotoworld.com

"Jaguars WR Mike Walker, who spent last year on injured reserve, had another procedure done on his knee during the season.

Impact: Walker was one of our favorite rookie sleepers last summer, but he's had knee problems going back to college and now has undergone two more surgeries in a short timeframe. He's still someone to keep an eye on leading up to 2008 with Ernest Wilford likely to be lost in free agency."

 
On Mike Walker from rotoworld.com"Jaguars WR Mike Walker, who spent last year on injured reserve, had another procedure done on his knee during the season.Impact: Walker was one of our favorite rookie sleepers last summer, but he's had knee problems going back to college and now has undergone two more surgeries in a short timeframe. He's still someone to keep an eye on leading up to 2008 with Ernest Wilford likely to be lost in free agency."
Thanks for the info!Id
 
Another vote for Jason Hill. I like Steve Smith NYG but much more when Toomer is gone. He seems like a perfect fit in the #2 role opposite Plax with Moss in the slot.

Ill also throw out Chad Jackson if Stallworth is gone and also Demetrius Williams in Baltimore if they get a QB who can get him the ball deep.

 
Jacoby Jones- this guy is going to be solid for the next 5 years and should be a great compliment to Andre Johnson and Kevin Walters next season.

 
This is becoming more and more apparent as the playoffs go on, but Chambers looks like a really nice player for next season.

 
Ben Obomanu is fast climbing my chart. Hackett is a FA, Branch is possibly out for the start of the season and that puts Obomanu as a starter.

 
Drew Carter- UFA and could end up somewhere with a qb.
I picked him up late, so I hope you are right.Roydell Williams is someone nobody has mentioned but had a decent year:55 719 4Tennessee isn't a fantasy gold mine but this guy could be a valuable WR4 indynasty.
 
I would not be surprised at all to see Harrison's production falling off sharply in the next year or two, and A. Gonzalez becoming valuable. He may be the 4-5th option now, but I could see him being a star in a few years.

I also like Smith alot on NYG (waiting for Toomer to hang it up), D.Williams on BAL (waiting for a decent QB), Ginn in MIA (ditto), and as mentioned somebody in SF (Battle?) if Smith can prove he is an NFL QB.

Also I think someone mentioned a prospect on OAK, any reason to think Porter/Curry would not be around to lead the way?

 
If Sidney Rice still has Tarvaris as his QB, I would be afraid his progression is limited again.

Also, with such devotion to their running game, his chances are even less limited.

 
If Sidney Rice still has Tarvaris as his QB, I would be afraid his progression is limited again.Also, with such devotion to their running game, his chances are even less limited.
Viking homers correct me, but I thought Jackson started to play much better as the season went on???
 
Spinoff of the RB topic. What WR do you have stashed for next year or which WR's do you see jumping up in value for 2008 and beyond.Rice- needs Jackson to keep moving forward with himL. Robinson- maybe a couple years away but has the tools to become a top WRM. Welker- Jax needs a go to guy and during pre-season was looking like he could fill that position
Agree with all these....An even longer shot would be Jason Hill; Martz is going to need someone to step among the SF wr corps...why not him?Id
Yeah, I agree. I've been saying look out for Hill next year with Martz. It's always the guy you don't think about with Martz Furry/McDonald).
 
roydell--young hurts him

roscoe parrish--should be the #2 next year

chad jackson--this year maybe, 09 bank on it

bryant johnson--he's pretty damn good, should get a shot, maybe SF

 
A lot of good names have already been mentioned. Basically, any WR drafted on the first day who could be in line for increased playing time is worth tracking. Some of the guys I'm stashing in my leagues:

Laurent Robinson - Drafted him in 4/5 of my dynasties. Looks to have a solid future as a starting WR in the NFL. Probably not on waivers at this point, but his value is low enough to where you could maybe get him as a throw-in in a trade.

Devard Darling - Quietly had over 300 receiving yards in the second half of the season, which was the first extended playing time of his career. Good size and decent pedigree. He's a longshot, but unlike most of these guys, he's actually on waivers in most of my leagues.

Derek Hagan - Looks like a bust at this point, but could get a shot down the road.

Michael Clayton - He was cut in one of my leagues. I promptly picked him up hoping he can bounce back with a change of scenery. Looked like the second coming of Rod Smith as a rookie. Has looked like Rod Gardner ever since.

Johnnie Lee Higgins - Was actually the WR3 at the end of the season and could be a starter next year if Porter leaves.

Sinorice Moss - Probably a bust, but you never know. Worth a shot if your league is deep enough.

 
Im sure he is on a lot of rosters but what about Chris Henry with the word of CJ maybe getting out of cincy.

 
If Sidney Rice still has Tarvaris as his QB, I would be afraid his progression is limited again.Also, with such devotion to their running game, his chances are even less limited.
Viking homers correct me, but I thought Jackson started to play much better as the season went on???
It doesn't take a Vikings homer to need to correct you. If you compare Tarvaris' numbers to the other guys in his class like Cutler, Clemens, Leinart, Young, etc... he's right on schedule. He has been working with the worse receiving talent as well. He gets a little more criticism in Minnesota cause he can't put up Culpepper type numbers. Give the guys some time, I think Rice and Tarvaris could develop together. Especially if a guy like Aundrae Allison can step up and be that #2.
 
An even longer shot would be Jason Hill; Martz is going to need someone to step among the SF wr corps...why not him?
Hill won't go from marginal #3 to starter this year. Battle will get high receptions, DJax will be much better than in 2007 (ie healthy, hopefully) this year. However, in the Martz system even as #3 Hill could have nice involvement. I think Lelie won't make it through a Martz camp BTW.
Bryant Johnson - UFA who should get a shot to start somewhere.
Has a chance. Depends on where he lands.
Ted Ginn JrI think that Sapola and Parcells will game plan to get him the ball more.
Agreed
One guy whose stock is extremely low after an injury plagued rookie season is Steve Smith of the Giants.
Another year as #3 in 2008 I think, but has a bright future thereafter. Toomer has another year in him.
Mike Walker was really tearing it up in Jags camp before they put him on IR. He was catching everything thrown to him. I am still trying to figure out why they felt the need to place him on IR.
Others have adequately answered the injury question. There is definitely opportunity for someone new to start opposite R Williams. Wilford is gone, Northcutt is better suited to #3, Matt Jones is a wild card in that he could be out of Del Rio's doghouse, he could stay a backup, or he could be let go. No one really knows. JDR's presser last week indicated he would like to bring in competition at the WR position and had nothing really good to say about his WR corps. When asked, he sort of dodged the question and talked positively about other positions like QB and TE. Walker has a shot to compete, but has no guarantee of a starting job.
Devin Hester got alot of work at the end of the year at WR.
Both HC and OC have gushed over him, saying on two separate occasions this year that he could develop into their WR1 in time if Berrian leaves. They have compared him to Steve Smith CAR. As cheap as he's currently available, his possible upside is tremendous.
Drew Carter- UFA and could end up somewhere with a qb.
IMO Carter had his chance to show he was starter material in 2007 and showed instead that he isn't. Career backup role player.
Ill also throw out Chad Jackson if Stallworth is gone and also Demetrius Williams in Baltimore if they get a QB who can get him the ball deep.
Stallworth almost certainly will be gone, and guys I trust (like Yudkin) state those in the know say Moss stays. With Welker and Gaffney and K Faulk all having Brady's trust and getting passes in the Pats' spread-it-around offense, even if Jackson gets time on the field I don't see big fantasy numbers any time soon.Demetrius Williams will still be a #3 in 2008 with Mason returning and Mark Clayton healthier. Upside is limited for at least another year.
Jacoby Jones- this guy is going to be solid for the next 5 years and should be a great compliment to Andre Johnson and Kevin Walters next season.
Maybe. Injury in 2007 slowed progress. FBG staff darling, but couldn't surpass Kevin Walter (not Walters) before injury, but had he stayed healthy, who knows? Solid prospect but will never be more than a #2 with Andre Johnson on the other side so upside somewhat limited. The word is complement, not compliment BTW. People get this wrong more often than right. Compliment is a nice thing you say, complement is the word that means augment.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
This is becoming more and more apparent as the playoffs go on, but Chambers looks like a really nice player for next season.
Despite good numbers for a number of years, disrespected in fantasy circles due to low reception %. I'm still not sure what to make of him in SD after Gates returns to full health and with Jackson improving. Still a decent fantasy WR2 I think. Lots of scoring chances in SD.
Ben Obomanu is fast climbing my chart. Hackett is a FA, Branch is possibly out for the start of the season and that puts Obomanu as a starter.
Seahawks really want to re-sign Hackett. Branch is likely to go on PUP (out at least 6 games) and then possibly IR if he's still not ready. Engram, Burleson should be back. They also intend to upgrade the TE position. Omomanu has upside but I'm just not seeing consistently usable fantasy numbers as a #4 in 2008.
Roydell Williams is someone nobody has mentioned but had a decent year: 55 719 4Tennessee isn't a fantasy gold mine but this guy could be a valuable WR4 in dynasty.
Very muddied situation. Fisher teams are never air it out teams, and VY will never be an air it out QB. They like to run and play good defense. Heimerdinger means more of that, not less. With Gage emerging some in 2007, Brandon Jones returning in 2008, maybe Givens (though he may be through in TEN), maybe Paul Williams or Chris Davis developing, the possibility of upgrading through the draft and/or FA, and lots of reliance on the TE in their offense, there's lots of competition for the ball. It's hard to say if Roydell's little hot streak was temporary or if he can emerge as the go to guy. As I said, very muddied situation.
I would not be surprised at all to see Harrison's production falling off sharply in the next year or two, and A. Gonzalez becoming valuable. He may be the 4-5th option now, but I could see him being a star in a few years.
A Gonzalez is no secret. He's not a buy low. You'll have to pay market price to get him.
Johnnie Lee Higgins
Also I think someone mentioned a prospect on OAK, any reason to think Porter/Curry would not be around to lead the way?
Porter can void the remainder of his contract and has said he plans to, so there is an opening opposite Curry. It could be Higgins. Or they could bring in a #1. I live in the Bay Area, and I've not seen any useful talk concerning Higgins' career path from the Raiders' organization. We'll see.
roscoe parrish--should be the #2 next year
Bills have recently stated they will bring in a starter opposite Evans. (Don't ask for a link. I read a lot but don't keep links handy for those who want proof. Look it up if interested.) Parrish will not be more than a #3. Not a lot of fantasy upside here.
Devard Darling - Quietly had over 300 receiving yards in the second half of the season, which was the first extended playing time of his career. Good size and decent pedigree. He's a longshot, but unlike most of these guys, he's actually on waivers in most of my leagues.
Those numbers were a result of Heap not playing, Demetrius Williams going down, Mark Clayton never really being 100% all year. This was his 4th year in the league and the first time he's ever really played extensively, as you said. I see nothing here to want. Sort of like Malcom Floyd after last year, Darling will disappear again.
Im sure he is on a lot of rosters but what about Chris Henry with the word of CJ maybe getting out of cincy.
Coach Lewis made it clear a couple of days ago that CJ isn't going anywhere. He also said a couple weeks ago that Henry isn't guaranteed to have a roster spot in 2008, let alone a large role. It was pretty clear he wasn't happy with a lot of things in Cincy in 2007, and troublemakers won't be welcome. So, if Henry can stay out of trouble and reprise his #3 role putting up TDs the way he did in 2006, great, but right now his upside in CIN is limited.
Give the guys some time, I think Rice and Tarvaris could develop together. Especially if a guy like Aundrae Allison can step up and be that #2.
I tend to agree with this. Given Tarvaris' college background, I think he's getting it OK after 2 years. But what you or I think isn't important; Childress' opinion is what matters. Pay attention this offseason as to whether they address the QB position or not. They've indicated so far that they are satisfied with TJ and Bollinger. We'll see. Nice thing about Rice is that he's clearly the #1 in MIN and the running game will open up some good opportunities in ther passing game. He's no longer a buy low, but his future is very bright. If they bring in a sold veteran at QB, so much the better for him (and no, folks, in case you haven't kept up, McNabb is NOT leaving Philly).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
CP..great info, much appreciated. One guy I grabbed off waivers late in the season was Maurice Stovall. It looked like he was #2 in TB at the start of the season and then rarely played. What do you know about him?

 
CP..great info, much appreciated. One guy I grabbed off waivers late in the season was Maurice Stovall. It looked like he was #2 in TB at the start of the season and then rarely played. What do you know about him?
I meant to address the Tampa situation when EBF mentioned Michael Clayton.They have said recently they plan to pursue aggressively someone in the FA market to open up the passing game. I think it's pretty clear by using Ike Hilliard as starter all year that they are not enamored with either Clayton or Stovall. Stovall had a shot in preseason then disappeared. I remember Gruden commenting on it at the time. And Clayton has had his chances. IMO both of these guys can be safely ignored for fantasy purposes. Their chances have passed them by. Role players both, with little fantasy upside.Another guy I want to address from EBF's post is Sinorice Moss. IMO he has very little value. Steve Smith was drafted in the same round (2nd) just a year after Moss to take the role Moss was drafted for, and I think that's telling. Moss was a reach when drafted, having never had more than 37 receptions in any college season. I think his brother preceding him, and the fact that he played at the U, helped him get drafted where he did. He's a career #4.Laurent Robinson I kind of like, but with a new coaching regime coming in it will depend on their opinion, not mine. Let's wait and see. As for Hagan, I don't see it happening for him. Bad hands. With a new staff coming in I think Ginn and someone new will be the WRs there, with Hagan always a role player.In general, we need to remember that just because a player is young and taken in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft doesn't mean he will have success. Look back on year after year of past drafts from 5 to 10 years ago and it'll be littered with names of guys who fit the above description but never made it. Lots of the guys mentioned in this thread will never make it, especially in terms of fantasy value. That's just the nature of the NFL.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm talking about these guys mostly as longshots and not players I'd really be rushing out to acquire in a trade. If you wanted to talk about the guys who are actually worth actively pursuing then I would suggest the players who have shown something (Rice, Ginn, Robinson, James Jones, Jacoby, Gonzo, etc.) and maybe some of the players with good pedigrees who have started slowly (Robert Meachem, Dwayne Jarrett). However, most of those guys aren't waiver fodder at this point in time. My post was meant to focus on low profile players and guys who have hit waivers in my leagues.

Those numbers were a result of Heap not playing, Demetrius Williams going down, Mark Clayton never really being 100% all year. This was his 4th year in the league and the first time he's ever really played extensively, as you said. I see nothing here to want. Sort of like Malcom Floyd after last year, Darling will disappear again.
I mostly agree. He's a longshot. But production is production and he did a decent job of capitalizing on his opportunities. In all likelihood he'll be a bench player for some NFL team and fade into obscurity. But you might as well hang on for a while assuming deep enough rosters. The big difference I see between Darling and Floyd is that Darling was promising enough to be drafted in the early 3rd round as a junior entry.
In general, we need to remember that just because a player is young and taken in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft doesn't mean he will have success. Look back on year after year of past drafts from 5 to 10 years ago and it'll be littered with names of guys who fit the above description but never made it. Lots of the guys mentioned in this thread will never make it, especially in terms of fantasy value. That's just the nature of the NFL.
Agreed, but I think it pays off to take chances on some of these guys. I was able to get Bernard Berrian off the scrap heap in most of my leagues because people had dismissed him after two quiet years. And how about Roddy White? He was left for dead until this year. My philosophy with players who have a decent pedigree is that you should try not to write them off until they've proven that they suck. Even then, you might want to cut them a little slack since there are always some late bloomers at WR.
Another guy I want to address from EBF's post is Sinorice Moss. IMO he has very little value. Steve Smith was drafted in the same round (2nd) just a year after Moss to take the role Moss was drafted for, and I think that's telling. Moss was a reach when drafted, having never had more than 37 receptions in any college season. I think his brother preceding him, and the fact that he played at the U, helped him get drafted where he did. He's a career #4.
By all accounts, Steve Smith is the future WR2 there. He drew raves in the preseason and would've made more noise this year if he had been healthy. Sinorice Moss was overrated in the draft and is a longshot to succeed, but a 2nd round receiver going into his third year could surprise you, so I would tab him as a guy to pick up if you have the space.
As for Hagan, I don't see it happening for him. Bad hands. With a new staff coming in I think Ginn and someone new will be the WRs there, with Hagan always a role player.
You're probably right. But there's an off chance he becomes a starter in the next year or two and anyone with starting potential has a chance for a value bump.
 
EBF is one of my favorite posters here. He writes, I pay attention.

So, I understand the difference in emphasis he is using, talking about longer shots and realizing they are longer shots. It's all good.

One difference between us, I think, is his greater emphasis on draft position (I know this from other threads I've read). While I agree that it is the most important starting point, after two years if a player hasn't begun to emerge I am looking much more at why that is rather than when he was drafted. If I'm not satisfied that the reasons still allow him a good shot at becoming a fantasy factor in his 3rd year, I'm moving on.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
1st of all a disclaimer to keep things in perspective: 50% of 1st round WR pick bust and never become significant producers in the league. The percentage for WR drafted after the 1st round is worse than 50%. WR is risky position. These numbers came from discussion with Ron Wolfe former Packers GM in why he felt that using high draft picks on WR for a rebuilding team is a poor stategy. Data on this for those who are curious is in a thread from last season that I cannot dig up right now but can later.

When looking for WRs I think situation is very important. They are dependent on targets (opportunity) to succeed.

Aundrae Allison of the Vikings could move into a starting role.

James Jones of the Packers may take time because Driver is in his way but has shown enough skill that he may be in the mix for the Pack in coming years.

Michael Jenkins is still in the mix for Atlanta.

Titans and Jaguar WR positions are all still up for grabs. So any of their players are viable for stashing.

Miami WR position up for grabs. Ginn looks like front runner here.

KC will need a WR 2(3) who will likely get more ops when Gonzo cannot be their WR 1(2) anymore.

 
Back to the Tampa situation, I mentioned above that they intend to pursue a FA to start opposite Galloway. And at 36, Galloway's time is very short. Just my guess (I haven't read this anywhere), but Jerry Porter landing there seems a good possibility. He was drafted in 2000 and was on Gruden's 2000 and 2001 Raiders before Gruden moved on to TB. If that happens his value will take a nice bump up. Porter is 29 so he still has 4-5 solid years ahead of him if he can land in a spot like TB where they like to pass the ball. It looks like Gruden is about to get an extension so the same offense is likely to be in place there for awhile.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
1st of all a disclaimer to keep things in perspective: 50% of 1st round WR pick bust and never become significant producers in the league. The percentage for WR drafted after the 1st round is worse than 50%. WR is risky position. These numbers came from discussion with Ron Wolfe former Packers GM in why he felt that using high draft picks on WR for a rebuilding team is a poor stategy. Data on this for those who are curious is in a thread from last season that I cannot dig up right now but can later.When looking for WRs I think situation is very important. They are dependent on targets (opportunity) to succeed.Aundrae Allison of the Vikings could move into a starting role.James Jones of the Packers may take time because Driver is in his way but has shown enough skill that he may be in the mix for the Pack in coming years.Michael Jenkins is still in the mix for Atlanta.Titans and Jaguar WR positions are all still up for grabs. So any of their players are viable for stashing.Miami WR position up for grabs. Ginn looks like front runner here.KC will need a WR 2(3) who will likely get more ops when Gonzo cannot be their WR 1(2) anymore.
One thing I've learned lately, with some exceptions, the best bet is usually not to look at a team and see a void of talent at a position and think "well, someone has to step up, X should...". Instead, it's better to look at teams where the system/QB is in place and a player could come up. Players like Housh, Colston, and Shaun McDonald were not top 30 WRs because of a void, they performed because they made their own way. The only WR you could say this year stepped up into a "void" is Roddy White, and it can easily be argued that he had the talent, but the system wasn't there before. I'll be looking at players like Sam Hurd/ Isiah Stanback, Chad Jackson, Aromashodu, and a real long shot, Derek Stanley. None of these are expensive, but could rise into nice roles. As EBF stated, these are WW pickup / longshots.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
This is becoming more and more apparent as the playoffs go on, but Chambers looks like a really nice player for next season.
Despite good numbers for a number of years, disrespected in fantasy circles due to low reception %. I'm still not sure what to make of him in SD after Gates returns to full health and with Jackson improving. Still a decent fantasy WR2 I think. Lots of scoring chances in SD.
I think Chambers is an interesting case. Yes, it is true that Gates was hurting late in the season, but that is at least partly offset by the fact that Chambers joined the team in midseason - that meant at least a marginally different offense, a different QB, changes in his personal life that could have been distracting, etc. And it appeared to me that Rivers developed a lot of trust in him over the course of the season. And, watching games, it appeared to me that Chambers played well, perhaps better than he had played in Miami.So I thought I'd look at a few indicators using his regular season targets for San Diego.First, he was targeted only 8 times in the red zone. That isn't a great indicator... but he made 4 catches on those targets, all for TDs. Could he merit more red zone targets next year? That would be a good thing. But this also reveals something else interesting. Chambers only had 4 TDs with San Diego (regular season), all of them in the red zone. I found it somewhat surprising that he didn't have a single long score. I suppose you could read this factor as a positive, in that he is likely to get a few long ones given he is targeted downfield a lot, and his red zone performance was good enough that he could get more looks, and thus more TDs, there as well.On the other hand, Rivers has thrown 22 and 21 TDs in his two seasons as the starter. With Gates getting the lion's share of those, it is hard for any WR to get a significant number of them. The San Diego WRs only had 8 as a group this year and 9 last year.Chambers was targeted 22 times on third down, second on the team on a per game basis, behind only Gates. He caught 15 of those targets for 14 first downs... a pretty good conversion rate, and better than anyone else's on the team. This is a good thing, given it could lead Rivers to go to him more often.But the bad news is that in those 10 regular season games, Chambers had only 63 targets, which was #35 in the NFL among WRs over that span. One of the problems is that San Diego was only #26 in the league in passing attempts this season, with 470. The other problem is that more than half of the targets go to RBs and TEs - this year, the targets were split like this: 120 for RBs, 132 for TEs, 206 for WRs.Next season, presumably Gates will be healthy. And it is possible that the combination of Craig Davis and Eric Parker could draw more targets. And there are other targets who appear talented that might somehow get worked in, like Sproles and Nanee - worst case they will contribute if some of the other players get hurt. Jackson also has been playing well, although he did the same thing down the stretch last year, and it didn't seem to carry over to this seasonAll in all, it's hard to see Chambers getting much more than 100 targets. For him to be a quality WR2 or better, he'll have to either get more than that for some reason (e.g., Gates gets hurt, the Chargers throw a lot more passes, etc.) or he'll have to be extremely productive with those targets.I have been mostly thinking of next year here, but I don't see much changing with this analysis over the next few years. I think he is likely to be a solid WR3, so if you can get him at WR4 or lower prices, then get him. But I suspect it is more likely that he is overvalued right now given that he played reasonably well in the playoffs.
 
Couch Potato said:
Back to the Tampa situation, I mentioned above that they intend to pursue a FA to start opposite Galloway. And at 36, Galloway's time is very short. Just my guess (I haven't read this anywhere), but Jerry Porter landing there seems a good possibility. He was drafted in 2000 and was on Gruden's 2000 and 2001 Raiders before Gruden moved on to TB. If that happens his value will take a nice bump up. Porter is 29 so he still has 4-5 solid years ahead of him if he can land in a spot like TB where they like to pass the ball. It looks like Gruden is about to get an extension so the same offense is likely to be in place there for awhile.
I take it from this that they are intent on replacing Hilliard...? Hilliard is 31, so it's not like he is on the verge of retirement. He had 62/722/1 this year on 87 targets. He was first on the team in receptions and second in yards. Granted, the 1 TD was low.Furthermore, Hilliard had 39/478/1 in the first 8 games, and only 27/315/0 in the last 8 games. I assume that is because Garcia missed 3 games, and for all practical purposes a 4th game during the second half of the season. Had Garcia remained healthy, it's possible Hilliard would have had 1000 yards.I can see wanting more production than they got from Clayton and Stovall (32/387/1 combined). So perhaps if they bring in someone like Porter, they make Hilliard the #3...? Regardless, to me, Hilliard fit the Gruden mold of a productive veteran receiver this year. :shrug:
 
Couch Potato said:
Back to the Tampa situation, I mentioned above that they intend to pursue a FA to start opposite Galloway. And at 36, Galloway's time is very short. Just my guess (I haven't read this anywhere), but Jerry Porter landing there seems a good possibility. He was drafted in 2000 and was on Gruden's 2000 and 2001 Raiders before Gruden moved on to TB. If that happens his value will take a nice bump up. Porter is 29 so he still has 4-5 solid years ahead of him if he can land in a spot like TB where they like to pass the ball. It looks like Gruden is about to get an extension so the same offense is likely to be in place there for awhile.
I take it from this that they are intent on replacing Hilliard...? Hilliard is 31, so it's not like he is on the verge of retirement. He had 62/722/1 this year on 87 targets. He was first on the team in receptions and second in yards. Granted, the 1 TD was low.Furthermore, Hilliard had 39/478/1 in the first 8 games, and only 27/315/0 in the last 8 games. I assume that is because Garcia missed 3 games, and for all practical purposes a 4th game during the second half of the season. Had Garcia remained healthy, it's possible Hilliard would have had 1000 yards.I can see wanting more production than they got from Clayton and Stovall (32/387/1 combined). So perhaps if they bring in someone like Porter, they make Hilliard the #3...? Regardless, to me, Hilliard fit the Gruden mold of a productive veteran receiver this year. :shrug:
I think Hilliard's pre-2007 #3 role is what they'd like him to go back to. He started this year because others didn't step up as they had hoped (Clayton, Stovall, and of course the sudden release of David Boston after his latest troubles). What I read was that they want someone with speed to stretch the field with Galloway getting near the end. Hilliard's 2nd half drop off was due in part to a nagging injury he was dealing with as I recall, not bad enough to sideline him but enough to limit him and put other WRs in play more.BTW, nice post on Chambers. I have him in one league so that's good food for thought. Maybe it's a good sell high opportunity. I'll have to ponder that some.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
1st of all a disclaimer to keep things in perspective: 50% of 1st round WR pick bust and never become significant producers in the league. The percentage for WR drafted after the 1st round is worse than 50%. WR is risky position. These numbers came from discussion with Ron Wolfe former Packers GM in why he felt that using high draft picks on WR for a rebuilding team is a poor stategy. Data on this for those who are curious is in a thread from last season that I cannot dig up right now but can later.When looking for WRs I think situation is very important. They are dependent on targets (opportunity) to succeed.Aundrae Allison of the Vikings could move into a starting role.James Jones of the Packers may take time because Driver is in his way but has shown enough skill that he may be in the mix for the Pack in coming years.Michael Jenkins is still in the mix for Atlanta.Titans and Jaguar WR positions are all still up for grabs. So any of their players are viable for stashing.Miami WR position up for grabs. Ginn looks like front runner here.KC will need a WR 2(3) who will likely get more ops when Gonzo cannot be their WR 1(2) anymore.
One thing I've learned lately, with some exceptions, the best bet is usually not to look at a team and see a void of talent at a position and think "well, someone has to step up, X should...". Instead, it's better to look at teams where the system/QB is in place and a player could come up. Players like Housh, Colston, and Shaun McDonald were not top 30 WRs because of a void, they performed because they made their own way. The only WR you could say this year stepped up into a "void" is Roddy White, and it can easily be argued that he had the talent, but the system wasn't there before. I'll be looking at players like Sam Hurd, Chad Jackson, Aromashodu, and a real long shot, Derek Stanley. None of these are expensive, but could rise into nice roles. As EBF stated, these are WW pickup / longshots.
I think that this is a wise philosophy and I picked up Chad jackson at the end of the year for this reason. I figure with Stallworth likely gone to FA and with only Gaffney and Kelley Washington in front of him and with Welker better suited to the slot, he could easily be getting a lot of receptions from Tom Brady next year as the WR2.
 
What do you guys think of Anthony Mix for next year? He seems like a real longshot to contribute, but he has the physical tools and possibly several openings in Washingtons WR corps.

 
What do you guys think of Anthony Mix for next year? He seems like a real longshot to contribute, but he has the physical tools and possibly several openings in Washingtons WR corps.
Mix is a big 6'5" 235 WR out of Auburn who went undrafted in 2006. In that same draft, his Auburn teammates Devin Aromashodu and Ben Obomanu were taken. Giants signed him, put him on the practice squad for the year. He made their active roster in 2007, played some, but was waived and re-signed to their practice squad in October. Redskins signed him off the Giants practice squad in November and he's been a special teamer since, having no catches yet as a Redskin. He was a teammate of QB Jason Campbell at Auburn, playing together in 2004. He played some WR and some TE there, and his stats as a junior in 2004 (19-294-3) and senior in 2005 (23-288-2) were nothing to write home about. Undistinguished college career. Undrafted. Practice squad rookie. Demoted again to practice squad the next year after a cup of coffee, then no catches in his 6 games with his new team. I'm not seeing much to hang your hat on here. Might he see the field as a WR rather than just a special teams guy at some point? Could be. Does he have more than a ghost of a chance at ever being a worthwhile fantasy contributor? I'd say very unlikely. I suspect you can put that roster spot to better use.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top