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Maroney's 2008 value on the rise (1 Viewer)

T

Thumper

Footballguy
It is going to be interesting to see where Lawrence Maroney will be drafted in 2008. Maroney looks to be running with the power and authority that he showed early in his rookie season.

Maroney was (along with Kevin Faulk) the Patriots mvp in the AFC Championship game today.

Take a look at Maroney's numbers the last 5 weeks

S.D. (AFC Championship game) 122, 1td

Jax (playoffs) 122, 40, 1td

NYG 116, 2td's

Miami 156, 1td

NYJ 104, 1td

You never know how the Patriots are going to use him in 2008 when Sammy Morris comes back, but his value is clearly rising from only 6 weeks ago. The argument can be made that Maroney is a first round pick in 08. I never thought I would have said this a only few weeks back when I thought he was a stretch in the 3rd round and more likely a 4th round pick.

 
He'll probably be a early 2nd pick again & disappointment. Bill is smart using him sparingly throughout the regular season (and keeping him relatively healthy) and use him a lot more extensively when it counts. It might not please fantasy owners, but more teams ought to use this type system IMO to keep backs healthy.

 
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I was hoping to pick him up cheap, somewhere around the value of a late 1st in a dynasty.

Not now :pickle:

 
Thumper said:
It is going to be interesting to see where Lawrence Maroney will be drafted in 2008. Maroney looks to be running with the power and authority that he showed early in his rookie season.Maroney was (along with Kevin Faulk) the Patriots mvp in the AFC Championship game today.Take a look at Maroney's numbers the last 5 weeksS.D. (AFC Championship game) 122, 1tdJax (playoffs) 122, 40, 1tdNYG 116, 2td'sMiami 156, 1tdNYJ 104, 1tdYou never know how the Patriots are going to use him in 2008 when Sammy Morris comes back, but his value is clearly rising from only 6 weeks ago. The argument can be made that Maroney is a first round pick in 08. I never thought I would have said this a only few weeks back when I thought he was a stretch in the 3rd round and more likely a 4th round pick.
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I think there is no doubting Maroney's tallent. The only thing to worry about is how BB is going to use him. BB is Maroney's limiting factor. I think if Moss is not back next year it will have a positive impact on Maroney. This year at times it seemed BB just wanted to get Brady the TD record which really killed Maroney's value. I think in a 12 team redraft Maroney is a mid 2nd round pick, and would be a reach in the first round.
 
Craig_MiamiFL said:
He'll probably be a early 2nd pick again & disappointment. Bill is smart using him sparingly throughout the regular season (and keeping him relatively healthy) and use him a lot more extensively when it counts. It might not please fantasy owners, but more teams ought to use this type system IMO to keep backs healthy.
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:goodposting: In addition it could prolong his career since BB won't run him into the ground. Well at least until the latter part of the season.
 
John Black said:
Craig_MiamiFL said:
He'll probably be a early 2nd pick again & disappointment. Bill is smart using him sparingly throughout the regular season (and keeping him relatively healthy) and use him a lot more extensively when it counts. It might not please fantasy owners, but more teams ought to use this type system IMO to keep backs healthy.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: In addition it could prolong his career since BB won't run him into the ground. Well at least until the latter part of the season.
Click to expand...
Doug Drinen did a study on this several years ago and concluded that there is likely no such thing as "wear and tear" when it comes to RBs. RBs hit a wall around age 30 even if they don't have much mileage.
 
Maroney was injured and considered injury prone coming into the season. The team lost Sammy Morris and had only a thirtysomething Kevin Faulk, a fullback, and an undrafted free agent on the roster to back up Maroney if something happened. The passing offense was working perfectly, and the line was better at pass blocking than run blocking. The team changed their offensive blocking schemes over the offseason to suit Maroney's strengths, and it took him time to change his play to match it. Maroney was also in Belichick's doghouse this offseason.

However, this team is capable of putting up more points than any other team in history. In fact, they just did. Maroney seems to have gotten out of the doghouse, and he seems to be healthy. Barring an injury in the Superbowl or offseason, he won't be recovering from offseason surgery as he was coming into this year. He's proven himself as a capable goal line runner as well as as a 100 yard capable running back. He's gotten better at catching the ball, and Faulk doesn't have much time left on the team. And there's no longer a question of whether Morris is the better back - Maroney was getting 2/3 of the snaps when Morris was healthy, and as a Maroney owner and Patriots fan I would welcome Morris' healthy return in a similar role next season.

It's entirely possible that Maroney will be the #1 running back in fantasy football next season. It's also entirely possible he'll be held back the entire season. If you draft him early, you'll have to take another back to back him up until/unless he seems safe to start, or chase the flavor of the week on the waiver wire. That sucks. Even if they seem to be holding him back until the end of the season again, how confident could you be in him going into your fantasy championship if they haven't used him in earnest yet like they hadn't this year?

I think he creeps into the second round this year, and could move as high as mid first if the team talks about using him more, or drop as low as the fourth or fifth if the team brings someone else in.

 
Pai Mei said:
John Black said:
Craig_MiamiFL said:
He'll probably be a early 2nd pick again & disappointment. Bill is smart using him sparingly throughout the regular season (and keeping him relatively healthy) and use him a lot more extensively when it counts. It might not please fantasy owners, but more teams ought to use this type system IMO to keep backs healthy.
Click to expand...
;) In addition it could prolong his career since BB won't run him into the ground. Well at least until the latter part of the season.
Click to expand...
Doug Drinen did a study on this several years ago and concluded that there is likely no such thing as "wear and tear" when it comes to RBs. RBs hit a wall around age 30 even if they don't have much mileage.
Click to expand...
tell that to Tiki Barber
 
Thumper said:
It is going to be interesting to see where Lawrence Maroney will be drafted in 2008. Maroney looks to be running with the power and authority that he showed early in his rookie season.Maroney was (along with Kevin Faulk) the Patriots mvp in the AFC Championship game today.Take a look at Maroney's numbers the last 5 weeksS.D. (AFC Championship game) 122, 1tdJax (playoffs) 122, 40, 1tdNYG 116, 2td'sMiami 156, 1tdNYJ 104, 1tdYou never know how the Patriots are going to use him in 2008 when Sammy Morris comes back, but his value is clearly rising from only 6 weeks ago. The argument can be made that Maroney is a first round pick in 08. I never thought I would have said this a only few weeks back when I thought he was a stretch in the 3rd round and more likely a 4th round pick.
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Unfortunately, I have a feeling that he will get overvalued again and get used similarly. When the weather is nice (most of the year until December), I have a feeling Brady will be passing as much as this year. Your note about Morris is key. Right now the only other RB is Faulk, who is not really a 1st/2nd down back except in passing formations. If Morris hadn't gotten hurt, do you think that Maroney and Morris would be splitting time? I kind of do, but I don't have a crystal ball, so who knows?Also, your list of games looks great until you realize that for 95% of FFers, only 2 of the 5 games mattered.
 
In another great coaching move, Belichick managed Maroney and his work load for a 19 game season. After last year Belichick could see the kid could be fried with 22+ carries a week so in came Morris and there always has been K Faulk. Because of the extreme success of the passing game the Pats could afford to keep Maroney as fresh and excited about contributing in the later part of the season. Was at the game tonite and he and Faulk sealed the deal controling the ball for the final 9+ minutes of the 4`th quarter. Really thought that the 3`rd and goal from the 2, huge Brady pick that kept S D alive, was going to be another Maroney special but not so. IMO Pats 31 Gmen 20 :goodposting:

 
bostonfred said:
phthalatemagic said:
No one would be paying attention to Maroney if Sammy Morris weren't on IR. Morris will be the starter next year.
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Was Morris the starter this year? Or do you think he'll earn the starting job because he turns 31 in two months?
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bf, you know that was never the case, nor will it ever be the case. do not feed the trolls on such a grand day. props to Maroney. Btw, to the OP, Maroney had 46 rushing and total yds against the Giants in week 17, not 116.
 
The cautionary note I would sound is that Maroney's best play coincides with bad weather, which of course tends to happen very late in the NFL season, which is not of much use in FF. Does anyone seriously believe that the Pats will greatly revise their approach on offense, particularly if Moss is resigned?

 
redman said:
The cautionary note I would sound is that Maroney's best play coincides with bad weather, which of course tends to happen very late in the NFL season, which is not of much use in FF. Does anyone seriously believe that the Pats will greatly revise their approach on offense, particularly if Moss is resigned?
Click to expand...
You're drawing causation from correlation. It's entirely possible that the reason Maroney's play improved is that they used him more, or that he got better at reading his blocks in the new zone blocking scheme, or that the team was afraid to overwork him with Morris on IR, or that they were afraid to use him too much after his offseason shoulder problems, or that he was in the doghouse this year, or that they didn't want to use him until close to the playoffs because they were afraid of losing their injury prone running back before the postseason. Any and all of those problems may have been solved with his performance in the playoffs, the return of Morris or another back, and so on. As for how Moss will do, if Brady was going for the record this year, and isn't next year, it's entirely possible that some of those 50 TDs go to Maroney. And that fewer go to Eckel, or Evans, or Brady. Maroney has been a capable goal line back the last few games, so he may get a lot more opportunities, while the Pats have little incentive to force the ball in any particular direction next year. That could be a sign of a huge uptick in Maroney's numbers. Or it might mean nothing. He's a huge risk/reward play this year.
 
BB looks even more like a genius by "saving" Maroney for when they would need him the most.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Maroney has had the most touches in each oh his last two games with the exception of Week 15.

 
For what it's worth, I have a history of being early on a player by a season. I took Maroney in the late 2nd this year so he'll probably be worth that next year.

 
bostonfred said:
redman said:
The cautionary note I would sound is that Maroney's best play coincides with bad weather, which of course tends to happen very late in the NFL season, which is not of much use in FF. Does anyone seriously believe that the Pats will greatly revise their approach on offense, particularly if Moss is resigned?
Click to expand...
You're drawing causation from correlation. It's entirely possible that the reason Maroney's play improved is that they used him more, or that he got better at reading his blocks in the new zone blocking scheme, or that the team was afraid to overwork him with Morris on IR, or that they were afraid to use him too much after his offseason shoulder problems, or that he was in the doghouse this year, or that they didn't want to use him until close to the playoffs because they were afraid of losing their injury prone running back before the postseason. Any and all of those problems may have been solved with his performance in the playoffs, the return of Morris or another back, and so on. As for how Moss will do, if Brady was going for the record this year, and isn't next year, it's entirely possible that some of those 50 TDs go to Maroney. And that fewer go to Eckel, or Evans, or Brady. Maroney has been a capable goal line back the last few games, so he may get a lot more opportunities, while the Pats have little incentive to force the ball in any particular direction next year. That could be a sign of a huge uptick in Maroney's numbers. Or it might mean nothing. He's a huge risk/reward play this year.
Click to expand...
I agree that you've pointed out a potential flaw in my reasoning, however you've done nothing to dissuade me that the late-season decline in the Pats' passing offense - and therefore their greater reliance upon the running game - has a better explanation than weather. That you can come up with some theoretical alternative theories doesn't mean that they're convincing.
 
It will be interesting to see how Maroney is used in the Super Bowl in warm weather. I'm guessing they will spread it out and Faulk will get alot of playing time. I can see Maroney getting 50 yards and a TD, and Faulk catching 7 passed for 60 yards.

They need Maroney in cold windy weather, but that is useless for Fantasy Football.

 
Pai Mei said:
John Black said:
Craig_MiamiFL said:
He'll probably be a early 2nd pick again & disappointment. Bill is smart using him sparingly throughout the regular season (and keeping him relatively healthy) and use him a lot more extensively when it counts. It might not please fantasy owners, but more teams ought to use this type system IMO to keep backs healthy.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: In addition it could prolong his career since BB won't run him into the ground. Well at least until the latter part of the season.
Click to expand...
Doug Drinen did a study on this several years ago and concluded that there is likely no such thing as "wear and tear" when it comes to RBs. RBs hit a wall around age 30 even if they don't have much mileage.
Click to expand...
good thing maroney is only 22 then.
 
Thumper said:
S.D. (AFC Championship game) 122, 1tdJax (playoffs) 122, 40, 1tdNYG 116, 2td'sMiami 156, 1tdNYJ 104, 1td
Click to expand...
So, these numbers probably exceed his entire totals from Weeks 1-13, I am guessing. I have him as a keeper in a league and really lost my #### (well, that and a few other bad turns). Not sure if I could go another season watching him get 5 carries and no catches weeks 1-13.
 
redman said:
bostonfred said:
redman said:
The cautionary note I would sound is that Maroney's best play coincides with bad weather, which of course tends to happen very late in the NFL season, which is not of much use in FF. Does anyone seriously believe that the Pats will greatly revise their approach on offense, particularly if Moss is resigned?
Click to expand...
You're drawing causation from correlation. It's entirely possible that the reason Maroney's play improved is that they used him more, or that he got better at reading his blocks in the new zone blocking scheme, or that the team was afraid to overwork him with Morris on IR, or that they were afraid to use him too much after his offseason shoulder problems, or that he was in the doghouse this year, or that they didn't want to use him until close to the playoffs because they were afraid of losing their injury prone running back before the postseason. Any and all of those problems may have been solved with his performance in the playoffs, the return of Morris or another back, and so on. As for how Moss will do, if Brady was going for the record this year, and isn't next year, it's entirely possible that some of those 50 TDs go to Maroney. And that fewer go to Eckel, or Evans, or Brady. Maroney has been a capable goal line back the last few games, so he may get a lot more opportunities, while the Pats have little incentive to force the ball in any particular direction next year. That could be a sign of a huge uptick in Maroney's numbers. Or it might mean nothing. He's a huge risk/reward play this year.
Click to expand...
I agree that you've pointed out a potential flaw in my reasoning, however you've done nothing to dissuade me that the late-season decline in the Pats' passing offense - and therefore their greater reliance upon the running game - has a better explanation than weather. That you can come up with some theoretical alternative theories doesn't mean that they're convincing.
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to convince you. I'm just saying that you're drawing causation from correlation. It's very difficult this year to look at Maroney and say, this is why he didn't do well in the regular season. There are a lot of reasons. I don't know which one is correct, so while I won't be spending an early pick on him, I won't pass on him altogether, either. Absent something definitive or some reason to feel confident in any one of those theories, I think the correct way to evaluate him is to treat him like a running back in a really high scoring offense with a questionable hold on the starting job. Kind of like a Marion Barber.
 
bostonfred said:
redman said:
bostonfred said:
redman said:
The cautionary note I would sound is that Maroney's best play coincides with bad weather, which of course tends to happen very late in the NFL season, which is not of much use in FF. Does anyone seriously believe that the Pats will greatly revise their approach on offense, particularly if Moss is resigned?
Click to expand...
You're drawing causation from correlation. It's entirely possible that the reason Maroney's play improved is that they used him more, or that he got better at reading his blocks in the new zone blocking scheme, or that the team was afraid to overwork him with Morris on IR, or that they were afraid to use him too much after his offseason shoulder problems, or that he was in the doghouse this year, or that they didn't want to use him until close to the playoffs because they were afraid of losing their injury prone running back before the postseason. Any and all of those problems may have been solved with his performance in the playoffs, the return of Morris or another back, and so on. As for how Moss will do, if Brady was going for the record this year, and isn't next year, it's entirely possible that some of those 50 TDs go to Maroney. And that fewer go to Eckel, or Evans, or Brady. Maroney has been a capable goal line back the last few games, so he may get a lot more opportunities, while the Pats have little incentive to force the ball in any particular direction next year. That could be a sign of a huge uptick in Maroney's numbers. Or it might mean nothing. He's a huge risk/reward play this year.
Click to expand...
I agree that you've pointed out a potential flaw in my reasoning, however you've done nothing to dissuade me that the late-season decline in the Pats' passing offense - and therefore their greater reliance upon the running game - has a better explanation than weather. That you can come up with some theoretical alternative theories doesn't mean that they're convincing.
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to convince you. I'm just saying that you're drawing causation from correlation. It's very difficult this year to look at Maroney and say, this is why he didn't do well in the regular season. There are a lot of reasons. I don't know which one is correct, so while I won't be spending an early pick on him, I won't pass on him altogether, either. Absent something definitive or some reason to feel confident in any one of those theories, I think the correct way to evaluate him is to treat him like a running back in a really high scoring offense with a questionable hold on the starting job. Kind of like a Marion Barber.
Click to expand...
I think you're misinterpreting. I'm not criticizing Maroney's performance during the regular season so much as I'm noting that he's actually being used more now, and I can't help but correlate that with the less effective (than earlier in the year) passing game and poor weather. I don't think Maroney suddenly got an epiphany (though I've wondered how much that shoulder hindered him early on) the way that Eli Manning has in the last month. He's just being used more than he was.BTW, I agree with you as to his redraft value in 2008. I'd love to have him as an RB2, but I'd be very worried if I'm picking at 1.10 or so and staring him in the face as my best RB on the board.
 
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Unless the Pats plan on ditching the spread, which would insane, imo, Maroney isn't worth a 1st/2nd round pick...

 
redman said:
bostonfred said:
redman said:
bostonfred said:
redman said:
The cautionary note I would sound is that Maroney's best play coincides with bad weather, which of course tends to happen very late in the NFL season, which is not of much use in FF. Does anyone seriously believe that the Pats will greatly revise their approach on offense, particularly if Moss is resigned?
Click to expand...
You're drawing causation from correlation. It's entirely possible that the reason Maroney's play improved is that they used him more, or that he got better at reading his blocks in the new zone blocking scheme, or that the team was afraid to overwork him with Morris on IR, or that they were afraid to use him too much after his offseason shoulder problems, or that he was in the doghouse this year, or that they didn't want to use him until close to the playoffs because they were afraid of losing their injury prone running back before the postseason. Any and all of those problems may have been solved with his performance in the playoffs, the return of Morris or another back, and so on. As for how Moss will do, if Brady was going for the record this year, and isn't next year, it's entirely possible that some of those 50 TDs go to Maroney. And that fewer go to Eckel, or Evans, or Brady. Maroney has been a capable goal line back the last few games, so he may get a lot more opportunities, while the Pats have little incentive to force the ball in any particular direction next year. That could be a sign of a huge uptick in Maroney's numbers. Or it might mean nothing. He's a huge risk/reward play this year.
Click to expand...
I agree that you've pointed out a potential flaw in my reasoning, however you've done nothing to dissuade me that the late-season decline in the Pats' passing offense - and therefore their greater reliance upon the running game - has a better explanation than weather. That you can come up with some theoretical alternative theories doesn't mean that they're convincing.
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to convince you. I'm just saying that you're drawing causation from correlation. It's very difficult this year to look at Maroney and say, this is why he didn't do well in the regular season. There are a lot of reasons. I don't know which one is correct, so while I won't be spending an early pick on him, I won't pass on him altogether, either. Absent something definitive or some reason to feel confident in any one of those theories, I think the correct way to evaluate him is to treat him like a running back in a really high scoring offense with a questionable hold on the starting job. Kind of like a Marion Barber.
Click to expand...
I think you're misinterpreting. I'm not criticizing Maroney's performance during the regular season so much as I'm noting that he's actually being used more now, and I can't help but correlate that with the less effective (than earlier in the year) passing game and poor weather. I don't think Maroney suddenly got an epiphany (though I've wondered how much that shoulder hindered him early on) the way that Eli Manning has in the last month. He's just being used more than he was.BTW, I agree with you as to his redraft value in 2008. I'd love to have him as an RB2, but I'd be very worried if I'm picking at 1.10 or so and staring him in the face as my best RB on the board.
Click to expand...
Maroney was effective earlier in the season, he simply wasn't used that much. As you pointed out, he may have been recovering from an injury. Also, do we think Brady will break the td record yet again? I don't expect New England to score as much next season as they did this one but I don't expect them to become an inept offense. All the running backs after the first 2 or 3 are rather risky picks. Just remember, half the running backs fall from the top ten each year. Personally, I believe a situation plays a bigger role than talent when it comes to producing a fantasy stud. New England has a lethal offense, a stellar offensive line and a fantastic qb/wr combination to keep defenses honest. Imo this kid has as great a shot as anyone to shoot into the top ten.
 
AnonymousBob said:
saintfool said:
Too much risk for a early selection.
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What player is going to be available in the late first round that will be without risk?And to the post below yours, which top wr do you suggest taking? Wr's aren't as failsafe as some of you guys seem to think.
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WR's are just as much of a gamble as RB's. That being said, I would take for sure: Moss, Fitz, Wayne, AJ, Colstonmost likely/possibly: Braylon, CJ, SS, TO, BoldinSo I guess it would come down to how I had drafted my first pick(s) in order to determine if I would select him or not.
 
chris1969 said:
please, please, please, everyone draft maroney early so another RB falls in the second.
Click to expand...
What I thinking too. Let someone draft LM early, I wait until the late rounds take Morris and end up with the same FF points as the LM owner when it's all said and done :thumbup:
 
Gopher State said:
chris1969 said:
please, please, please, everyone draft maroney early so another RB falls in the second.
Click to expand...
What I thinking too. Let someone draft LM early, I wait until the late rounds take Morris and end up with the same FF points as the LM owner when it's all said and done :thumbup:
Click to expand...
If there's more talk like this, Maroney could end up being undervalued. :lmao:
 
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