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Projecting 1st RD FF draft with IDP's (1 Viewer)

comfortably numb

comfortably numb

Footballguy
According to the polls Jeter23 ran off, here is what the 1st 16 pick would look like.

For those playing in IDP leagues, I want to start a discussion on who and where would the IDP's go, and how it would slide players further back.

If you project an IDP anywhere on this list, where would you place him/them?

1. Darren McFadden, RB

2. Jonathan Stewart, RB

3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB

4. Felix Jones, RB

5. Ray Rice, RB

6. Jamaal Charles RB

7. Kevin Smith, RB

8. Matt Ryan, QB

9. Steve Slaton, RB

10. Malcolm Kelly WR

11. Desean Jackson, WR

12. Brian Brohm, QB

13. Chris Johnson, RB

14. Adarius Bowman, WR

15. Early Doucet, WR

16. Mario Manningham, WR

 
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i think a team would have to have multiple 1st's to draft an IDP

I currently have 1.01, 1.09 and 1.12 in a 16 team idp dynasty league.

So I need to really digest my needs and evaluate all the players to find the BPA.

But right now let's just see how the real draft goes.

 
Looking at who is still left out there, I dont see IDP until about pick 24. But it depends on scoring on the league. Some leagues have insane D scoring that makes them very valuable

In my one dynasty league, I have the 24th pick and a very solid O overall with not much roster room. Only allowed to carry 22 O players max. But with how the jeter mock is turning out, it will be hard to pass on a guy like Flacco in a league where you can start 2 QB's instead of taking a D player.

 
I agree with burnining senation at this point. I'm not sure any IDPer excites me enough at this point to draft in the first 2 rounds. Someone with a big need at an IDP position will probably consider grabbing an IDPer in round 2 though.

 
In my 32 team league, I'm strongly considering an IDP with my 1.23 pick. Which is the equivalent of a late 2nd rounder in a 12 team league. But I doubt he'd be available at that pick. I'd probably be looking at a 2nd tier IDP player at that pick.

 
There seems to be a prevailing amount of optimism about these rookie prospects this year. Which is common around this time of the FF offseason. The depth of RB prospects this year is pretty amazing. However post combine and post NFL draft these prospects will have been whittled down. Even so supply and demand will cause as many as 8 RB to be taken before the 2nd round with the way things are looking right now.

Typicaly the 1st IDP prospect will be taken at around pick 15. Sometimes earlier. But pick 15 seems to be the average from my observations. I am not saying this is the correct move, just that the ADP has been around pick 15.

The depth at RB this year may cause the 1st IDP pick to get pushed back to pick 18 or so. I doubt that enough of these RBs make it through combine and NFL draft to be intruiging enough to push IDP much further back than this, especially when one considers that some of these IDP will be drafted into ideal situations for them to succeed. And how well rookie IDP LBers have performed recently.

 
Abraham said:
It's going to come down to what team these guys end up on.
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I agreeIf Jonathan Stewart were taken by a team like DEN at their #12 pick , or by the Steelers (if they were to trade up), he may become more valuable than McFadden in say ATL.
 
Beaumont said:
Totally dependent on scoring IMHO. LBs in some of my 16 team leagues will go mid first.
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Yea, I was targeting leagues who score LB highFor exampleWillis was 1.8 and Puz was 1.13 in one league.I wanted to gage whether any LBers were valued high enough to shake up the 1st
 
comfortably numb said:
Beaumont said:
Totally dependent on scoring IMHO. LBs in some of my 16 team leagues will go mid first.
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Yea, I was targeting leagues who score LB highFor exampleWillis was 1.8 and Puz was 1.13 in one league.I wanted to gage whether any LBers were valued high enough to shake up the 1st
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If Gholston gets drafted by a team running 3-4, particularly the Patriots, he will warrant 1st rd. consideration.
 
Abraham said:
comfortably numb said:
Beaumont said:
Totally dependent on scoring IMHO. LBs in some of my 16 team leagues will go mid first.
Click to expand...
Yea, I was targeting leagues who score LB highFor exampleWillis was 1.8 and Puz was 1.13 in one league.I wanted to gage whether any LBers were valued high enough to shake up the 1st
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If Gholston gets drafted by a team running 3-4, particularly the Patriots, he will warrant 1st rd. consideration.
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That'll depend on scoring system. It's extremely rare for a 3-4 OLB to consistently rank in the top 20 LBs except in leagues that significantly reward big plays over tackles.
 
I wouldn't call these my own rankings, but just a guess as to where the IDPs would fall amongst the skill position players in a Rookie Draft. If the RBs seem a little low, that's because not all these Rookie 'backs will be put into ideal situations. (Some are bound to be buried on the depth chart)

1. RB Darren McFadden

2. RB Jonathan Stewart

3. RB Felix Jones

4. RB Rashard Mendenhall

5. WR Malcolm Kelly

6. WR DeSean Jackson

7. RB Jamaal Charles

8. RB Chris Johnson

9. QB Matt Ryan

10. RB Steve Slaton

11. WR Early Doucet

12. RB Ray Rice

13. WR Mario Manningham

14. WR James Hardy

15. WR Devin Thomas

16. RB Kevin Smith

17. QB Brian Brohm

18. RB Mike Hart

19. OLB Keith Rivers

20. WR Limas Sweed

21. WR Andre Caldwell

22. RB Justin Forsett

23. WR Adarius Bowman

24. WR Donnie Avery

Other IDPs considered: ILB Dan Connor, OLB Ali Highsmith, ILB Phillip Wheeler, ILB Curtis Lofton

 
The rankings are going to look very different come April. Lots of guys who aren't getting any love from the message board have a good chance to be drafted pretty early. Off the top of my head, I expect RB Matt Forte, WR Donnie Avery, WR Lavelle Hawkins, WR Adrian Arrington, WR Andre Caldwell, TE Fred Davis, and QB Chad Henne to be in play earlier than expected.

Forte is a likely 2nd-3rd round pick. He's better than Tony Hunt and Brian Leonard, who were high picks in lots of leagues last year. Unlike some of the other 2nd and 3rd tier backs, he's big and strong enough to be a starter at the NFL level. I expect him to contend for the top 12 when it's all said and done.

Hawkins, Caldwell, and Avery are likely 2nd-3rd round picks. They're better prospects than some of the players with more name value. Arrington has a chance to join this group as well if he can run a decent 40 time. But he might not be fast enough.

Fred Davis is a possible first round pick at TE, making him a realistic option in the top 15-20.

Chad Henne is another potential first round pick. I currently have him ranked ahead of Brohm and Woodson.

Also, Steve Slaton isn't the prospect we thought he was last year. He's one of the candidates to tumble on draft day.

 
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Am i the only one who thinks Curtis Lofton will have the best FF impact for defense?

 
EBF said:
The rankings are going to look very different come April. Lots of guys who aren't getting any love from the message board have a good chance to be drafted pretty early. Off the top of my head, I expect RB Matt Forte, WR Donnie Avery, WR Lavelle Hawkins, WR Adrian Arrington, WR Andre Caldwell, TE Fred Davis, and QB Chad Henne to be in play earlier than expected. Forte is a likely third round pick. He's better than Tony Hunt and Brian Leonard, who were high picks in lots of leagues last year. Unlike some of the other 2nd and 3rd tier backs, he's big and strong enough to be a starter at the NFL level. I expect him to contend for the top 12 when it's all said and done.Hawkins, Caldwell, and Avery are likely 2nd-3rd round picks. They're better prospects than some of the players with more name value. Arrington has a chance to join this group as well if he can run a decent 40 time. But he might not be fast enough. Fred Davis is a possible first round pick at TE, making him a realistic option in the top 15-20. Chad Henne is another potential first round pick. I currently have him ranked ahead of Brohm and Woodson. Also, Steve Slaton isn't the prospect we thought he was last year. He's one of the candidates to tumble on draft day.
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Any RB taken in the 1st day will have a chance to go in the top 10 of any fantasy draft. Usually there are about 9 RBs taken in the first 3 Rounds and another 3-4 taken in the 4th Round.When it's all said and done, I think Forte will be fighting for position with Rice, Slaton, K.Smith, Hart, Forsett, Choice, Savage, Torain, Patrick and Alridge between late Round 2 and 4.I agree- Avery and Caldwell will probably be chosen in Round 2 with Hawkins possibly sneaking into the latter part of the Round with his recent performance. I don't like them as much as most for pure fantasy value, but I can't argue with where they're being slotted.Fred Davis may go late Round 1 but cross me off the Davis bandwagon list. His play at USC was uninspiring for most of his career, though he has flashed elite talent at times, it just serves as an eerie reminder of former USC pass-catchers.I wouldn't rank Henne ahead of Brohm, but the QB3 spot is certainly up for grabs in my book and he's in the lead.
 
aposulli said:
Any RB taken in the 1st day will have a chance to go in the top 10 of any fantasy draft. Usually there are about 9 RBs taken in the first 3 Rounds and another 3-4 taken in the 4th Round.

When it's all said and done, I think Forte will be fighting for position with Rice, Slaton, K.Smith, Hart, Forsett, Choice, Savage, Torain, Patrick and Alridge between late Round 2 and 4.
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I see Savage, Torain, Patrick and Alridge as second day guys. Slaton could fall that far too. Choice might need a good combine to go on the first day as well and I think Hart projects as a backup in the NFL. I see Forte competing with Rice and Smith in that late 2nd-early 3rd range. One of the big things he has going for him is that he's 6'1" 220+ pounds. That will work in his favor when you consider that a lot of the second and third tier backs this year are undersized.

I'm not trying to hype up Matt Forte here. All I'm saying is that he's probably going to be a top 10-12 rookie pick in most leagues when it's all said and done.

If I had to guess the draft order of the prospects right now, I would say

First Round

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Felix Jones

Second Round

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Kevin Smith

Third Round

Ray Rice

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

Mike Hart

Fourth Round

Tashard Choice

Justin Forsett

The combine looms large for some of these guys. We pretty much know that Stewart, Mendenhall, and Jones are going to tear it up. But fringe guys like Slaton, Rice, Hart, Choice, and Smith have a lot at stake. They could move down or up a round depending on how well they do.

 
EBF said:
If I had to guess the draft order of the prospects right now, I would say

First Round

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Felix Jones

Second Round

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Kevin Smith

Third Round

Ray Rice

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

Mike Hart

Fourth Round

Tashard Choice

Justin Forsett
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I think you're almost right on with your first two rounds. I think Rice could slip into the 2nd though. I'd put Slaton and Hart in the 4th and put Choice & Forsett in the 3rd.
 
Andy Dufresne said:
EBF said:
If I had to guess the draft order of the prospects right now, I would say

First Round

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Felix Jones

Second Round

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Kevin Smith

Third Round

Ray Rice

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

Mike Hart

Fourth Round

Tashard Choice

Justin Forsett
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I think you're almost right on with your first two rounds. I think Rice could slip into the 2nd though. I'd put Slaton and Hart in the 4th and put Choice & Forsett in the 3rd.
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Definitely possible. Rice could go in the 2nd if he has a decent combine. He needs to run a decent time and do well in the drills.

It's splitting hairs between Hart/Choice/Forsett/Slaton. If I were an NFL GM I wouldn't draft any of those guys on the first day, but I bet some of them will be chosen that high. I picked Slaton because he has home run speed and I picked Hart because a lot of pundits have him as a 3rd round pick.

 
ATW22 said:
awesomeness said:
Am i the only one who thinks Curtis Lofton will have the best FF impact for defense?
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Nope - he'll be a tackling machine
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I usually prefer rookie MLBs to OLBs, so Lofton is probably my top IDP in most formats right now, but he's nowhere near Willis or Poz, maybe near where Beason was taken last year. In at least one of my leagues, Kenny Phillips could be the highest IDP. In sack heavy leagues, I'll be shooting for Chris Long or Gholston.
 
EBF said:
aposulli said:
Any RB taken in the 1st day will have a chance to go in the top 10 of any fantasy draft. Usually there are about 9 RBs taken in the first 3 Rounds and another 3-4 taken in the 4th Round.

When it's all said and done, I think Forte will be fighting for position with Rice, Slaton, K.Smith, Hart, Forsett, Choice, Savage, Torain, Patrick and Alridge between late Round 2 and 4.
Click to expand...
I see Savage, Torain, Patrick and Alridge as second day guys. Slaton could fall that far too. Choice might need a good combine to go on the first day as well and I think Hart projects as a backup in the NFL. I see Forte competing with Rice and Smith in that late 2nd-early 3rd range. One of the big things he has going for him is that he's 6'1" 220+ pounds. That will work in his favor when you consider that a lot of the second and third tier backs this year are undersized.

I'm not trying to hype up Matt Forte here. All I'm saying is that he's probably going to be a top 10-12 rookie pick in most leagues when it's all said and done.

If I had to guess the draft order of the prospects right now, I would say

First Round

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Felix Jones

Second Round

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Kevin Smith

Third Round

Ray Rice

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

Mike Hart

Fourth Round

Tashard Choice

Justin Forsett

The combine looms large for some of these guys. We pretty much know that Stewart, Mendenhall, and Jones are going to tear it up. But fringe guys like Slaton, Rice, Hart, Choice, and Smith have a lot at stake. They could move down or up a round depending on how well they do.
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True alot of these second-tier backs are smallish, but Garrett Wolfe went in the 3rd Round last year. Those are the guys that will be drafted as change of pace 'backs and/or returners. Guys who qualify for that: Forsett, Little, Bernard and Alridge.
 
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