Patriots 2008 off season (1 Viewer)

The Patriots have some major decisions to make over the next few months. Among them is the future of Assante Samuel and Randy Moss.

The first big decision the Patriots have to make is what to do with cb A.Samuel. If the Patriots let him walk Ellis Hobbs (the guy Plaxico burned for the game winning td is the #1 cb) is the #1 cb. Hobbs is an average cb and not the shut down type guy the Patriots need. If Samuel is lost to free agency it seems likely that the Patriots would draft a stud cb with the 7th pick in the draft, but how much can you really expect from a rookie cb on a team that wants to win a Superbowl?

The next decision to be made is Randy Moss. Will the Patriots be willing to shell out big money for a wr, even if that wr is Randy Moss? Unlike this season Moss will not come as a bargin in 2008. I for one doubt that the Patriots will overpay for Moss as much as they would like to have him. I do think that Moss might take somewhat of a home town discount, but I don't he will play for the money the Patriots will initally offer. Unlike most people I don't see Randy Moss's return to be the slam dunk many people think it will be.

If Moss stays I don't see anyway the Patriots can bring back Donte Stallworth. Stallworth has talent and will want a contract to match that talent. The problem with Stallworth in N.E. is that his skill set is similar to that of Moss. If Moss leaves via free agency there is a good chance Stallworth will be back, but the Patriots wr core will have suffered a pretty big downgrade.

Roosevelt Colvin could also be another salary cap casualty. I don't remember the exact numbers but I am pretty sure Colvin will be a big number on the cap if the Patriots keep him. While Colvin has been solid at lb he has not been the stud the Patriots thought they were getting when they signed him away from the Bears + is most likely not worth the money on the cap.

If Colvin goes the Patriots will be very, very thin at linbacker. How long can they depend on aging vets like Teddy Bruschi or Junior Seau? That's assuming that they are not going to retire before the 2008 season begins. Another aging vetern who can't really be counted on is Rodney Harrison. Even if Harrison returns he has clearly lost a step.

The Patriots lost the Superbowl because they could not handle the pressure the opposing defenses other teams were applying to Brady. As a matter of fact the games they almost lost this season (Blt,Indy) were due to swarming defenses overwhelming their offensive line. Can they do anything about this in the offseason?

So how do the Patriots answer these questions?

Do they pay Moss and Samuel?

Do they let Samuel walk + draft a cb at #7?

How do they quickly rebuild this aging defense if they were to lose Roosevelt, Samuel, Bruschi, Harrison and Seau. It seems unlikely they would lose ALL of these players, but they will lose some of them.

It is possible that the Patriots may not be able to bounce back in 2008 (by bounce back I mean be a 16-0 type team)and may need an extra season to rebuild their aging defense to be contenders.

Any thoughts?

I think signing Moss is critical for the offense. With he and Welker and Brady's intelligence it makes it nearly impossible to cover both. Their offense will take a big step back without Randy and I think he'll be a major priority (probably the top one) to bring back. Their defense wore down as the year went on and it was the offense and their ability to hold onto the ball that allowed them to cover up their holes. If they lose Moss it will hurt their offense and their defense, even if they do sign Samuel.

Harrison needs more HGH. He's still smart enough but doesn't move as well as he used to. Both Giants big plays on offense, Boss and Tyree were both on him. They've got a lot of work to do with their LB'ers. It'll be interesting.

What's their cap situation as it stands now?

I don't see much change in their offense outside of getting a replacement for Stallworth. That just hurts depth.

Defensively they are going to have to start retooling though. LOTS of aging players and I doubt they pony up for Samuel or Colvin.

I've posted extensively on this already, but . . .

Moss will be back (re-signed) and worse case scenario will be franchised.

Samuel will be gone (and they can' t franchise him again).

Stallworth will be gone (due $11 million in 08).

Colvin may get cut (due $7.25 million but has had injury issues).

Gaffney will likely be back if the price is right.

Jackson (if things work out) would take over the Stallworth role.

Bruschi retires.

Seasu signs another 1 year deal.

Harrison comes back or one more SB run.

Pats sign LB Clark Haggans from PIT.

Pats draft CB Mike Jenkins.

Cap, I think they're 11 mill under the projected cap, without Moss, Samuel contracts. They're not in great shape with the cap, but its not awful, either.

Stallworth has a big roster bonus due, and its pretty unlikely he'll ever see that. I'd expect him to be the first cap casualty. IMO, it's not a huge loss IF they get Moss signed. I think Gaffney could fill the Stallworth slot with little or no dropoff, opposite Moss & Welker.

Samuel will be gone. He wants his payday. There will be no hometown discount in that deal, and he's shown enough to find a team that will pay him top 5 CB money. His departure makes a decent secondary shaky. I don't feel great with Hobbs & Gay as your starters. I think Samuel allowed the D to do some covering up of the coverage skills of Hobbs. Without Samuel, the Pats will need to find another cover corner that can handle some 1:1 coverage or upgrade the pass rush to reduce the cover time by the DBs.

They continue to need to get younger at LB, but I'm not sure exactly how. I think Colvin is another one who will be gone to FA.

Key offseason moves:

Moss - get him signed. NOW! He's still a difference maker, and will allow the #2 WR position to be filled with a wider range of talents. With Moss, I think Gaffney or equivalent would make a fine #2, with Chad Jackson as the 4th WR. Without Moss, I think you need to look at acquiring two higher tier WR in the market, whomever may be available.

Get younger on D: Self explanatory. Experience can make up some speed, but there comes a time... I think that time is now.

Edge rusher: Vrabel has been good in this role, but he is getting up there, too. Seymour isn't the "in the backfield" playmaker he once was. Osi & Strahan sure make having that outside rusher look like a good thing.

K: Give me a kicker you can trust with a 48 yarder indoors. Please!!

Maybe some O line depth, best man wins the job at RT, and get Neal healed up.

Road Warriors said:

Cap, I think they're 11 mill under the projected cap, without Moss, Samuel contracts. They're not in great shape with the cap, but its not awful, either.Stallworth has a big roster bonus due, and its pretty unlikely he'll ever see that. I'd expect him to be the first cap casualty. IMO, it's not a huge loss IF they get Moss signed. I think Gaffney could fill the Stallworth slot with little or no dropoff, opposite Moss & Welker. Samuel will be gone. He wants his payday. There will be no hometown discount in that deal, and he's shown enough to find a team that will pay him top 5 CB money. His departure makes a decent secondary shaky. I don't feel great with Hobbs & Gay as your starters. I think Samuel allowed the D to do some covering up of the coverage skills of Hobbs. Without Samuel, the Pats will need to find another cover corner that can handle some 1:1 coverage or upgrade the pass rush to reduce the cover time by the DBs.They continue to need to get younger at LB, but I'm not sure exactly how. I think Colvin is another one who will be gone to FA.Key offseason moves:Moss - get him signed. NOW! He's still a difference maker, and will allow the #2 WR position to be filled with a wider range of talents. With Moss, I think Gaffney or equivalent would make a fine #2, with Chad Jackson as the 4th WR. Without Moss, I think you need to look at acquiring two higher tier WR in the market, whomever may be available.Get younger on D: Self explanatory. Experience can make up some speed, but there comes a time... I think that time is now.Edge rusher: Vrabel has been good in this role, but he is getting up there, too. Seymour isn't the "in the backfield" playmaker he once was. Osi & Strahan sure make having that outside rusher look like a good thing.K: Give me a kicker you can trust with a 48 yarder indoors. Please!!Maybe some O line depth, best man wins the job at RT, and get Neal healed up.

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Hate to say it, but I think the Patriots run is over.

After having the highest scoring offense in history,and not getting it done,..AND the inability of the secondary to stop the opposition WRs in the playoffs(Chambers/Jackson had 13 rec.and 180 something yds. in the AFC Championship),..How can anyone see signing Moss a priority over Samuel with a "spotty" secondary?

Given Belichick's reluctance to use draft picks for offensive players,that #7 1st round Draft pick will probably be traded down for 2 others to bring in defenders, and seeing that the Giant victory asserted that DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS,..I don't see sacrificing defensive depth an option to enable them to sign Moss.

As a longtime Pats fan,...I'm not ready to "jump off the bridge" because the current Pat "O" line got their asses beat ONCE. Adjustments will be made,and if Moss doesn't return,the running game will be featured more,with Welker,Gaffney,..and either Jackson/Stallworth thrown into the passng game mix.

This is 2 years in a row where the defense couldn't make a "seal the deal" stop. Taking players off that defense isn't the answer.

As far as the kicking game,Gostkowski hasn't been "battle tested". He's no Vinatieri for sure,but Belichik has to trust that kicker once in a while to foster his confidence. All coaches would prefer to score touchdowns, but you need a dependable FG kicker every now and then.

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This was a tough loss, but the Giants deserved to win,and the Pats will learn from this and be back...

if the Pats start to lose some players on defense i believe you'll see them definetly turn back into a balanced attack on offense like the colts did after peyton's record year. they'll run the ball more with Maroney and Sammy Morris(a big big loss for them this year) to eat up the clock more often and help there defense out. even if they lose players to movement or retirement and draft a few replacements there defense will still be old- a more clock oriented offense could help. Since James Sanders and Merriweather seemed to fair well for the most part, would they consider moving eugene wilson back to CB fulltime? or has that shipped sailed for wilson? Wilson seemed to lose alot of time to Sanders and Merriweather anyways. Randall Gay/Hobbs/Wilson could make a good 2nd-nickel-dime CB but the hole opened if Samuel isn't resigned is HUGE. I've heard some rumbling that the pats have been high on Pierre Woods as he's been learning/grooming under the senior circuit for a few seasons now. i read on some forum a year ago that Woods was the reason that the pats felt they could let Tully Banta-Cain walk. of course then signing Adalius Thomas rendered that moot.

rocket1012 said:

After having the highest scoring offense in history,and not getting it done,..AND the inability of the secondary to stop the opposition WRs in the playoffs(Chambers/Jackson had 13 rec.and 180 something yds. in the AFC Championship),..How can anyone see signing Moss a priority over Samuel with a "spotty" secondary?

Given Belichick's reluctance to use draft picks for offensive players,that #7 1st round Draft pick will probably be traded down for 2 others to bring in defenders, and seeing that the Giant victory asserted that DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS,..I don't see sacrificing defensive depth an option to enable them to sign Moss.

As a longtime Pats fan,...I'm not ready to "jump off the bridge" because the current Pat "O" line got their asses beat ONCE. Adjustments will be made,and if Moss doesn't return,the running game will be featured more,with Welker,Gaffney,..and either Jackson/Stallworth thrown into the passng game mix.

This is 2 years in a row where the defense couldn't make a "seal the deal" stop. Taking players off that defense isn't the answer.

As far as the kicking game,Gostkowski hasn't been "battle tested". He's no Vinatieri for sure,but Belichik has to trust that kicker once in a while to foster his confidence. All coaches would prefer to score touchdowns, but you need a dependable FG kicker every now and then.

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This was a tough loss, but the Giants deserved to win,and the Pats will learn from this and be back...

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I'm of the mind that Samuel is just gone. IMO, he wants out and he wants top 2-3 CB money. I don't think the Pats can resign him.As for the WR corps, Stallworth won't be back on his contract, and I've not seen much that tells me he's looking to come back at a discount. Gaffney is a FA, as is Moss. The only WR under contract, if you remove Stallworth, is Welker and Chad Jackson. If the resign Moss, they can fill the other WR spot with someone like a Gaffney or David Patten. If Moss is gone, they will either return to the Reche days, or they'll need to get 2 decent WR on the market or draft, and we know how quicky rookie WR come along.

I think Moss makes the WR corps a strength.

Anarchy99 said:

I've posted extensively on this already, but . . .

Moss will be back (re-signed) and worse case scenario will be franchised.

Samuel will be gone (and they can' t franchise him again).

Stallworth will be gone (due $11 million in 08).

Colvin may get cut (due $7.25 million but has had injury issues).

Gaffney will likely be back if the price is right.

Jackson (if things work out) would take over the Stallworth role.

Bruschi retires.

Seasu signs another 1 year deal.

Harrison comes back or one more SB run.

Pats sign LB Clark Haggans from PIT.

Pats draft CB Mike Jenkins.

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Why would the Pats sign a 31 year old LB if they are trying to get younger at that position ?

No Patriot fan in their right mind wouldn't want to re-sign Moss, but he took 6 mil. less to play for NE this year. Now,..he can "Break the Bank" and go anywhere.

The Pats had the best offense they will ever have in 2007,and that wasn't enough to get the Lombardi. ..My point was/is..... Given a salary-cap CHOICE between Offense or Defense,..can you afford to NOT shore up a linebacker/secondary core that was an "also-ran" the last 2 years?

Sheriff66 said:

Anarchy99 said:

I've posted extensively on this already, but . . .

Moss will be back (re-signed) and worse case scenario will be franchised.

Samuel will be gone (and they can' t franchise him again).

Stallworth will be gone (due $11 million in 08).

Colvin may get cut (due $7.25 million but has had injury issues).

Gaffney will likely be back if the price is right.

Jackson (if things work out) would take over the Stallworth role.

Bruschi retires.

Seasu signs another 1 year deal.

Harrison comes back or one more SB run.

Pats sign LB Clark Haggans from PIT.

Pats draft CB Mike Jenkins.

Click to expand...

Why would the Pats sign a 31 year old LB if they are trying to get younger at that position ?

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Because they believe that older linebackers are both better for their system and often underpaid.

CB, LB, WR...all pressing needs based on age and signings!

With the draft pick, the Pats could go DE:

from nfldraftcountdown.com

Cornerback is also going to be a concern if Asante Samuel bolts as a free agent but for the time being linebacker is the Patriots main issue. It sounds like there is a very good chance that both Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will retire and while Mike Vrabel, Rosie Colvin and Adalius Thomas are all capable of playing inside if one or even two of them make that move it will create a hole outside. A physical marvel and fantastic pass rusher, Gholston played defensive end for the Buckeyes but should be able to make the successful transition to outside linebacker in a 34 scheme at the pro level.

Too much money to keep Samuel and Moss...I think you lock down Moss, and go FA/draft to get a replacement for Samuel

Samuel, Moss want to stay with Patriots

Asante Samuel knows he may have played his final game as a Patriot last night. Playing under the franchise tag this season, the cornerback becomes an unfettered free agent. "If my teammates could hear me now, I love all of you to death. Hopefully, we can have many more seasons to come, but if we don't, life goes on," Samuel said after the 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. "But I'd love to remain a Patriot." Wide receiver Randy Moss, another free agent, also reiterated his desire to stay. "If I am in a New England Patriot uniform next year, I would love to be in one," Moss said. "If I am not, you know, the show must go on." -- Boston Herald

Sheriff66 said:

Anarchy99 said:

I've posted extensively on this already, but . . .

Moss will be back (re-signed) and worse case scenario will be franchised.

Samuel will be gone (and they can' t franchise him again).

Stallworth will be gone (due $11 million in 08).

Colvin may get cut (due $7.25 million but has had injury issues).

Gaffney will likely be back if the price is right.

Jackson (if things work out) would take over the Stallworth role.

Bruschi retires.

Seasu signs another 1 year deal.

Harrison comes back or one more SB run.

Pats sign LB Clark Haggans from PIT.

Pats draft CB Mike Jenkins.

Click to expand...

Why would the Pats sign a 31 year old LB if they are trying to get younger at that position ?

Click to expand...

Wouldn't that make them younger?

nerangers said:

CB, LB, WR...all pressing needs based on age and signings!

With the draft pick, the Pats could go DE:

from nfldraftcountdown.com

Cornerback is also going to be a concern if Asante Samuel bolts as a free agent but for the time being linebacker is the Patriots main issue. It sounds like there is a very good chance that both Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will retire and while Mike Vrabel, Rosie Colvin and Adalius Thomas are all capable of playing inside if one or even two of them make that move it will create a hole outside. A physical marvel and fantastic pass rusher, Gholston played defensive end for the Buckeyes but should be able to make the successful transition to outside linebacker in a 34 scheme at the pro level.

Too much money to keep Samuel and Moss...I think you lock down Moss, and go FA/draft to get a replacement for Samuel

Samuel, Moss want to stay with Patriots

Asante Samuel knows he may have played his final game as a Patriot last night. Playing under the franchise tag this season, the cornerback becomes an unfettered free agent. "If my teammates could hear me now, I love all of you to death. Hopefully, we can have many more seasons to come, but if we don't, life goes on," Samuel said after the 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. "But I'd love to remain a Patriot." Wide receiver Randy Moss, another free agent, also reiterated his desire to stay. "If I am in a New England Patriot uniform next year, I would love to be in one," Moss said. "If I am not, you know, the show must go on." -- Boston Herald

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sounds like they want to be Pats if they get paid.

nerangers said:

CB, LB, WR...all pressing needs based on age and signings!

With the draft pick, the Pats could go DE:

from nfldraftcountdown.com

Cornerback is also going to be a concern if Asante Samuel bolts as a free agent but for the time being linebacker is the Patriots main issue. It sounds like there is a very good chance that both Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will retire and while Mike Vrabel, Rosie Colvin and Adalius Thomas are all capable of playing inside if one or even two of them make that move it will create a hole outside. A physical marvel and fantastic pass rusher, Gholston played defensive end for the Buckeyes but should be able to make the successful transition to outside linebacker in a 34 scheme at the pro level.

Too much money to keep Samuel and Moss...I think you lock down Moss, and go FA/draft to get a replacement for Samuel

Samuel, Moss want to stay with Patriots

Asante Samuel knows he may have played his final game as a Patriot last night. Playing under the franchise tag this season, the cornerback becomes an unfettered free agent. "If my teammates could hear me now, I love all of you to death. Hopefully, we can have many more seasons to come, but if we don't, life goes on," Samuel said after the 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. "But I'd love to remain a Patriot." Wide receiver Randy Moss, another free agent, also reiterated his desire to stay. "If I am in a New England Patriot uniform next year, I would love to be in one," Moss said. "If I am not, you know, the show must go on." -- Boston Herald

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I see this guy as the projected pick with increasing regularity. I think Gholston is the right pick.I may be in the minority on this one, but I would rather they lock up Samuel and let Moss go. I dont know how many quality years Moss has left. I saw Moss thrive early in the season, when he was fresh and the weather was warm. As the season went on, you saw a combination of him wearing down coupled with teams figuring out ways to take him out of the game. His top end speed seemed to be on the decline over the course of the season. He wasnt able to get separation and he was never a great YAC in traffic guy. I look at Stallworth. He was very much underutilized this year. His top end speed is nearly the same as Moss, but he is incredibly tough to bring down and is awesome in traffic. He has only had a couple of decent years in his career, but he is definately a quality reciever. I would like to see Stallworth as the #1 reciever with Gaffney as the #2 and Welker as the slot guy. I could be wrong, but I think that Stallworth will come at half of the price of Moss. Reciever is not a problem for the Pats. Good corners are so difficult to come by.

I think the combination of Stallworth and Samuel is better for the future of this team than Moss and some un-named cornerback. I dont want to think of Hobbs as the #1 guy in that secondary.

Pats promised Samuel they wouldn't franchise him if they won so many games(or whatever it was)

Why honor that?

On the surface I know, you'll get all high and mighty on me BUT how many player don't honor their contracts and holdout? How many teams cut players and don't let them finish their contracts?

Very little is honorable about contracts between NFL players and their teams.

How did the team and fans feel when Lawyer Milloy was cut?

When Curtis was traded?

It's not unprecedented to leave a bad taste

At worst franchise him and then trade him

Itchy Amos said:

nerangers said:

CB, LB, WR...all pressing needs based on age and signings!

With the draft pick, the Pats could go DE:

from nfldraftcountdown.com

Cornerback is also going to be a concern if Asante Samuel bolts as a free agent but for the time being linebacker is the Patriots main issue. It sounds like there is a very good chance that both Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will retire and while Mike Vrabel, Rosie Colvin and Adalius Thomas are all capable of playing inside if one or even two of them make that move it will create a hole outside. A physical marvel and fantastic pass rusher, Gholston played defensive end for the Buckeyes but should be able to make the successful transition to outside linebacker in a 34 scheme at the pro level.

Too much money to keep Samuel and Moss...I think you lock down Moss, and go FA/draft to get a replacement for Samuel

Samuel, Moss want to stay with Patriots

Asante Samuel knows he may have played his final game as a Patriot last night. Playing under the franchise tag this season, the cornerback becomes an unfettered free agent. "If my teammates could hear me now, I love all of you to death. Hopefully, we can have many more seasons to come, but if we don't, life goes on," Samuel said after the 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. "But I'd love to remain a Patriot." Wide receiver Randy Moss, another free agent, also reiterated his desire to stay. "If I am in a New England Patriot uniform next year, I would love to be in one," Moss said. "If I am not, you know, the show must go on." -- Boston Herald

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I see this guy as the projected pick with increasing regularity. I think Gholston is the right pick.I may be in the minority on this one, but I would rather they lock up Samuel and let Moss go. I dont know how many quality years Moss has left. I saw Moss thrive early in the season, when he was fresh and the weather was warm. As the season went on, you saw a combination of him wearing down coupled with teams figuring out ways to take him out of the game. His top end speed seemed to be on the decline over the course of the season. He wasnt able to get separation and he was never a great YAC in traffic guy. I look at Stallworth. He was very much underutilized this year. His top end speed is nearly the same as Moss, but he is incredibly tough to bring down and is awesome in traffic. He has only had a couple of decent years in his career, but he is definately a quality reciever. I would like to see Stallworth as the #1 reciever with Gaffney as the #2 and Welker as the slot guy. I could be wrong, but I think that Stallworth will come at half of the price of Moss. Reciever is not a problem for the Pats. Good corners are so difficult to come by.

I think the combination of Stallworth and Samuel is better for the future of this team than Moss and some un-named cornerback. I dont want to think of Hobbs as the #1 guy in that secondary.

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I can agree that corner is tougher to fill, and if Samuel is willing to come back without being the top paid guy, thats probably where the Pats should head. The postgame quotes are the first I've seen from Samuel that indicate any sort of willingness to come back to the Pats.I disagree with your Stallworth assessment. There were aspects to his game that I really didn't like. I think his route running is sloppy, and I don't think he does very well adjusting to the ball in the air. In the #2 role, especially with this offense, he was more often on shorter routes, WR screens where he can use his elusiveness to get lots of YAC. He has great speed, but I don't like his downfield routes nearly as much. In the case where Moss was somewhat covered, you could throw the ball up and he'd go get it. I think with Stallworth in the same case, a number of those turn into incompletions or picks.

Add to that that Stallworth is due a huge roster bonus and IIRC, will count 11 million against the cap on the current deal, and I don't believe we'll be seeing Donte again next year in a Pats uniform

Bri said:

Pats promised Samuel they wouldn't franchise him if they won so many games(or whatever it was)Why honor that?On the surface I know, you'll get all high and mighty on me BUT how many player don't honor their contracts and holdout? How many teams cut players and don't let them finish their contracts?Very little is honorable about contracts between NFL players and their teams.How did the team and fans feel when Lawyer Milloy was cut?When Curtis was traded?It's not unprecedented to leave a bad tasteAt worst franchise him and then trade him

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I think it was written into the 1 year deal he signed under the franchise tag. 12 wins, and they can't franchise him again. I could be wrong on that.

The Patriots under Belichick won a super bowl in 2001 with considerably less talent than what they had this year. Don't lose focus of that. They could absorb a world of losses and win another ring in 2008.

I think not having Sammy Morris really hurt them yesterday. They ended up being pretty one dimensional on offense allowing the Giant pass rushers to pin their ears back and go after the QB on pretty much every play. I think Bellichick stays with the run a bit more and the run is more effective if Morris is out there.

I think they should keep Samuel and let Moss walk if it comes down to a choice between the two. I know you don't replace a Randy Moss completely, but considering how the competition is shaping up in regards to the passing game, having a CB like Samuel around is a must if you're going to compete for championships, and you could get something on the FA market that would be a nice fill in for Moss (Berrian, Javon Walker, whatever).

I don't see why they'd let Colvin go. He plays very well for them when he plays, and they're going to be pressed at LB even if all the older guys don't retire.

The Pats will be back next year with a serious chip on their shoulder. As a Charger fan I was hoping they'd win yesterday and then relax next year. Now it looks like they'll be even more motivated to win the Super Bowl than they were this year.

A few thoughts:

*If they resign Moss the O is fine. They need him (or some other legit #1) because it allows players like Welker and Gaffney (should he return) to be used correctly. It's always easy to panic after one game but this was a record setting offense that needs a little tinkering and not a big overhaul. They also get Morris back as well as a promising David Thomas who hopefully becomes the reliable target at TE they have not had during the Brady era. I think RT is an area that needs to be looked at as Kazcur has been inconsistent.

*Chad Jackson has shown absolutely nothing in two years. While there's potential I don't think you can count on him. If he comes into camp and the lightbulb goes on great but you don't want to be in a position where he can burn you.

*Stallworth really didn't impress me this year. He has some skills and contributed but he's definetly not a #1 Wr talent. If they lost Moss and moved Stallworth to the #1 role that would be a very big downgrade.

*I'd like to see the Pats add another quality RB to go with Morris, Faulk and Maroney. A little more depth here would not hurt.

*If the Pats can't trust Gostkowski to make that kick last night they need to address that area. If you think going for it on 4th and 13 while your O line is getting pushed all over the field makes more sense than a long but not outrageously long FG than something's very wrong here.

*Hanson sucks and the Pats could definetly use an upgrade at punter.

*On D the back eight needs to be addressed. If Samuel leaves CB becomes a major exposure. Hobbs is average and after that there's zero. They have a lot of work to do there. Safety is OK if Rodney can hang on for another year. Sanders is solid and Merriweather shows promise. It's an area that can be upgraded but it's decent. LB will be interesting to watch. I'm going to assume both Junior and Bruschi retire. As for Colvin I'm not sure what happens there but I don't see any team giving him big money as he's coming off an injury and he's 30 (young for Patriot LBs...old for everyone else). Vrabel and Thomas remain and I assume one of them (probably Thomas) will go inside. Something's gotta give here and I'll believe they'll address this in the draft when I see it. What the Pats do with their back 8 will go a long ways as to whether this is a good team or a very good team.

*I'd really like to see the Pats dig up a big time pass rusher...someone other teams fear and hasve to account for. Thomas looked like he was going to be that player but while he's good he wasn't anything special in that area. Right now their pass rush is like a pitching staff without an ace but with a bunch of #2 and #3 starters. Add in a big time pass rusher and the Vrabels, Thomas and Warrens will be that much more effective. In the last two seasons the Pats were eliminated in games where one sack at the end of the game may have been the difference between winning and losing.

Overall this team has the potential to be an elite team next year. It also has some exposure (i.e. the back 8) that can bring them back to the pack as well. With the #7 pick, two #3's and a decent cap situation they have the ability to address a few issue. Offensively they should be one of the better units in the NFL. Defensively it will come down to what they do with their back 8. Until you see what they do there you won't know how high the ceiling is for 2008.

GordonGekko said:

The sky is not falling.

The Patriots will be fine. New England runs a hybrid 3-4/4-3 depending on the situation. If they are short on good linebackers, you could do a lot worse than have Seymour/Wilfork/Warren/Green as your front four. Thomas is talented enough to play the Mike linebacker spot if need be and Merriweather is probably athletic enough to shift to corner if it got to that point. The Patriots know how to adjust, I'm sure they will be fine on defense. I'm sure they will draft a corner (after the Duane Starks fiasco, I don't think they'll spend on a FA corner again like that) and make do with a middle grade FA signing to shore up the position.

I think they spend that #7 or a variation of it via trade of some kind into an offensive lineman. I think they get a road grader tackle and shift Light to RT over time and turn Kaczur into a swingman or let him go.

The running game needs to be addressed. Brady was clearly not 100 percent and favoring that ankle, even if the Giants D Line is attacking like crazy, you still need a running back to shove the rock down their throats. Maroney couldn't do it.

The problem at LB isn't just age. The problem is since 2001, a lot of copycat teams have switched over to the 3-4. It's a lot harder to find linebackers on the cheap out there when you have a lot more competition for their services. I also think this changes the way defensive players are drafted when they see a guy like Vrabel doing so well in a 3-4 defense.

Angry Bill is a bit unpredictable at times. I think he guns for an offensive lineman with his first pick. Most projections have Jake Long going 5th, well if the draft shakes out where lots of teams gun for the top three QBs, then Long might fall to the Patriots. Or if the Patriots can somehow move down, maybe they'll look at Clady or Otah.

I also wouldn't put it past him to use his base 4-3 more often next season. He's got more talent on D line than linebacker right now. I also think it will free up Thomas and Seymour to make more plays.

The Patriots will be fine. They had one bad game.

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A voice of reason in the Shark Pool? I never thought I'd see the day. Folks, they just went 18-1. Anyone who thinks that a 3 point loss is the end of the franchise is delusional.

Boston said:

A few thoughts:

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welcome back!

Any chance they grab the CB from Kansas, Talib, with the #7 pick?

Bri said:

Pats promised Samuel they wouldn't franchise him if they won so many games(or whatever it was)Why honor that?On the surface I know, you'll get all high and mighty on me BUT how many player don't honor their contracts and holdout? How many teams cut players and don't let them finish their contracts?Very little is honorable about contracts between NFL players and their teams.How did the team and fans feel when Lawyer Milloy was cut?When Curtis was traded?It's not unprecedented to leave a bad tasteAt worst franchise him and then trade him

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They CANNOT franchise him. It's that simple. It was in his contract that if he played 75% of the defensive plays and the Pats won 12 games that NE COULD NOT franchise him again. That became a provision of his contract. Much like players that have a huge roster bonus. Teams can't just decide "well, we want to keep you on the team and keep all the other aspects of your contract the same, but we decided we will not be giving you that $8 million we owe you." Teams can't decide to honor only certain terms of contracts and not others.

Anarchy99 said:

I've posted extensively on this already, but . . .Moss will be back (re-signed) and worse case scenario will be franchised.Samuel will be gone (and they can' t franchise him again).Stallworth will be gone (due $11 million in 08).Colvin may get cut (due $7.25 million but has had injury issues).Gaffney will likely be back if the price is right.Jackson (if things work out) would take over the Stallworth role.Bruschi retires.Seasu signs another 1 year deal.Harrison comes back or one more SB run.Pats sign LB Clark Haggans from PIT.Pats draft CB Mike Jenkins.

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Bet you $200 that you don't have this right.

I say Colvin re-works his contract and they retain him.

He's already had a big payday. He also had 2 injuries while with NE that have landed him on the IR. Which other team would be willing to pay him big money given his recent injury history? NE could keep him at a palatable price.

Bad_Mo said:

I say Colvin re-works his contract and they retain him.He's already had a big payday. He also had 2 injuries while with NE that have landed him on the IR. Which other team would be willing to pay him big money given his recent injury history? NE could keep him at a palatable price.

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Colvin has openly discussed this and has said he will not reneogiate and will not take a penny less than his market worth. He was on the side of the departed Pats players that have since left (Graham for one, Branch for another, likely Samuel). Colvin is about the money, so I doubt he will acquiesce and roll over to sign an extension at a discount. He's proven to be a good talent when healthly . . . only he's had health issues onver the years. I'm not sure the Pats will over him much more than half what he wants to play for. The issue will be whether they bring him back for the final year of his contract (worth like $7.25 million).

Anarchy99 said:

Bri said:

Pats promised Samuel they wouldn't franchise him if they won so many games(or whatever it was)Why honor that?On the surface I know, you'll get all high and mighty on me BUT how many player don't honor their contracts and holdout? How many teams cut players and don't let them finish their contracts?Very little is honorable about contracts between NFL players and their teams.How did the team and fans feel when Lawyer Milloy was cut?When Curtis was traded?It's not unprecedented to leave a bad tasteAt worst franchise him and then trade him

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They CANNOT franchise him. It's that simple. It was in his contract that if he played 75% of the defensive plays and the Pats won 12 games that NE COULD NOT franchise him again. That became a provision of his contract. Much like players that have a huge roster bonus. Teams can't just decide "well, we want to keep you on the team and keep all the other aspects of your contract the same, but we decided we will not be giving you that $8 million we owe you." Teams can't decide to honor only certain terms of contracts and not others.

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Googling all I find is "promise" not "provision written in his contract" and promise is all over.Boston Globe, Projo, Boston Herald...all using the word promise.Do you have a link?

Pai Mei said:

The Patriots under Belichick won a super bowl in 2001 with considerably less talent than what they had this year. Don't lose focus of that. They could absorb a world of losses and win another ring in 2008.

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True, but the Patriots snuck up on a lot of opponents that year. They don't sneak up on anyone anymore.

Hey guys, for those that think we can afford to let Asante Samuel go, I think you really have to look at the current talent in the Patriots secondary.

This was an excellent read...I will post it here (have to look for the original link)

Overhaul of secondary in order? by Bob George - bossports.net

We told you the Patriots were exposed in the Philadelphia game, and some of you laughed. That last drive for the Giants last night was the death knell of the Patriots, and it had its genesis back in the Eagle game at Foxborough.

Prior to that game, the Patriots were killing the league. Except for the Colts game, which was close like it should have been, the Patriots were massacring teams like no other team had done in recent years. Disregard the Colts game, and the Patriots had a five-game stretch where they scored 48 on Dallas, 49 on Miami, 52 on Washington and 56 on Buffalo, the latter tying the team record. By the time the Eagles came to Foxborough on November 25th, the Patriots had just beaten Buffalo 56-10 and were considered by many to be invincible.

And then came the Eagle game. A.J. Feeley, who as a Dolphin engineered a 29-28 upset win over the Patriots on their way to a championship, riddled the Patriots for 345 yards passing and three touchdowns. Instead of it being something like 45-28, it was only 31-28 as the Eagle defense was able to get pressure on Tom Brady and keep the score down somewhat. It was 28-24 Eagles in the fourth quarter. Only a late touchdown run by Laurence Maroney and a late pick by Asante Samuel allowed the Patriots to escape with a win. But this game revealed a major problem the Patriots had: The offense had been masking a suspect secondary which, if the Patriot offense could be held down at all, could be thrown on and be the key to defeating the Patriots.

The rest of the season went like this: Kyle Boller has the game of his life the following week and only a chain of freak fourth down plays allows the Patriots to beat Baltimore. Miami and the Jets lack the quarterback talent to exploit any Patriot secondary problems. The Steelers were dead ducks thanks to Anthony Smith.

Then there were the Giants. Eli Manning throws for four touchdown passes and completes 22 of 32 passes for 251 yards. The Patriots surrender an unthinkable 35 points, a season high. The Giants could not win because they weren't good enough defensively to hold the Patriots under 38. But the Giants furthered the exploitation the Eagles started in November.

Now come the playoffs. Look at what Jacksonville's David Garrard did. 22 of 33 passing, 278 yards, two touchdowns. And that was with that tall but mediocre bunch of receivers he has. One of these days, Garrard won't throw that key pick, and he'll have guys like Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell who will hold onto touchdown passes. The Patriots escaped with a win, but Garrard was making lots of hay against the Patriot secondary.

As for Philip Rivers, he was too hurt to do any good. The key defensive play of the game was made by a linebacker (Junior Seau), not a defensive back. The Patriots held San Diego to four field goals, but Rivers was still able to move the ball against the Patriots.

Now the Super Bowl. The Giant defense finally holds down the Patriot offense with an insane pass rush which finally wilted in the fourth quarter. Still, it worked long enough to limit the Patriots to 14 points. In the end, the defense was entrusted to protect a 14-10 lead, and it could not. Rodney Harrison simply did not make a play on David Tyree, and Ellis Hobbs looked totally incompetent on the game-winning play to Plaxico Burress.

So, here is the problem. Asante Samuel will leave via free agency, as someone will overpay for him. Hobbs is vastly overrated as a cornerback. Randall Gay does nice most of the time but is injury-prone. Harrison would have made that play on Tyree three years ago and might likely call it quits. Eugene Wilson is injury-prone also and is too reliant on Harrison for signals. Brandon Meriweather is still a work in progress. Only James Sanders makes you feel comfortable that his position is well covered.

The secondary is in need of retooling, especially if (when) Samuel leaves and if Harrison retires. Hobbs is nothing more than a kickoff returner and perhaps a nickel back. The Patriots desperately need shutdown corners. If Bill Belichick takes the seven pick and trades down, he should consider cornerback (along with linebacker) right up there at the top of the needs list. Value matters more than need with Belichick, but at some point the concept of "need" should not be ignored.

Simply stated, if the Patriots had the Ty Law and Otis Smith of 2001, the Patriots win the game 14-10.

Bri said:

Anarchy99 said:

Bri said:

Pats promised Samuel they wouldn't franchise him if they won so many games(or whatever it was)

Why honor that?

On the surface I know, you'll get all high and mighty on me BUT how many player don't honor their contracts and holdout? How many teams cut players and don't let them finish their contracts?

Very little is honorable about contracts between NFL players and their teams.

How did the team and fans feel when Lawyer Milloy was cut?

When Curtis was traded?

It's not unprecedented to leave a bad taste

At worst franchise him and then trade him

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They CANNOT franchise him. It's that simple. It was in his contract that if he played 75% of the defensive plays and the Pats won 12 games that NE COULD NOT franchise him again. That became a provision of his contract. Much like players that have a huge roster bonus. Teams can't just decide "well, we want to keep you on the team and keep all the other aspects of your contract the same, but we decided we will not be giving you that $8 million we owe you." Teams can't decide to honor only certain terms of contracts and not others.

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Googling all I find is "promise" not "provision written in his contract" and promise is all over.Boston Globe, Projo, Boston Herald...all using the word promise.

Do you have a link?

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Here is a LINK that spells it out (I guess it was 60% not 75% of downs played). Not the link I had in mind, but one I could find quickly.THIS ARTICLE is the one I remember reading when it was in the Boston Globe.

Here are the main Pats players not under contract for the 2008 season . . .

Asante Samuel

Randy Moss

Tedy Bruschi

Eugene Wilson

Tedy Bruschi

Eugene Wilson

Randall Gay

Junior Seau

Jabar Gaffney

Larry Izzo

Troy Brown

thanks for the link

Here is more info on the Pats cap situation (from patscap.com):

The revised cap should be around $116M. The Pats currently on paper are projeted to be around $111M. However, that includes $0 for any of the guys I just listed above and $0 for their incoming draft picks.

Here are several guys that are in danger/in need of reworking their deals or could be elsewhere.

Eckels

No one really knows what sort of strange provisions he had in his contract, but for now he is bookmarked to count $5.9M against the cap. That most certainly will not stay that way.

Colvin

Pats would save $5.8M against the cap by cutting him.

Stallworth

He's due $8M in roster bonuses and $3M in salary in 08 (which he won't ever see). But apparently cutting him would only save $5M against the cap.

Faulk

He was phenomenal in the post season, but NE would save $3M by releasing him.

KBrady

Pats would save $2M in cap space by giving him his walking papers.

KWashington

He really only played special teams this year and they would save $900K by letting him go.

Assuming only Faulk stays on board (at the same contract) and the other guys are gone altogether, that would net roughly another $20M and would get them to $25M under the cap without reworking any other deals.

I expect the team to let Samuel, Moss, Bruschi, and Seau all walk. In fact, unless they re-sign for way less than their value, I could see the team not re-signing anyone from Yuds' list, and then cutting a lot of the players listed above.

They'll use the draft and FA to fill any holes. They always have.

There was a GREAT article in the Prov Journal about three weeks ago about this very topic and about the team's willingness to let any (and all) big names go if they are aging vets who are heading into the downside of their careers. Doesn't get more aged than Moss, Bruschi and Seau.

Marc Levin said:

I expect the team to let Samuel, Moss, Bruschi, and Seau all walk. In fact, unless they re-sign for way less than their value, I could see the team not re-signing anyone from Yuds' list, and then cutting a lot of the players listed above.They'll use the draft and FA to fill any holes. They always have.There was a GREAT article in the Prov Journal about three weeks ago about this very topic and about the team's willingness to let any (and all) big names go if they are aging vets who are heading into the downside of their careers. Doesn't get more aged than Moss, Bruschi and Seau.

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I can't argue Bruschi or Seau, but Moss is 30 ( or is it 31? ) and coming off one of the best years of his career. I don't think I'd be writing him off as retirement home fodder just yet.

I wouldn't either, Road Warrior, but he is heading to the downside of his career. The article I read showed the Pats' very successful strategy of cutting bait on players who are still playing well but are aging.

The example they used that sticks out to me was Lawyer Malloy in 2001, who they ditched after a pro bowl season. But they had a bunch of other examples as well.

How old is Faulk? Will he retire? Have you seen any interviews with him considerring retiring?

I still say Moss isn't going anywhere and that both he and the team are still ga-ga over each other. Obviously Moss cannot be expected to have 23 TD again, but he should that he has plenty in the tank.

Knowing the Pats, they will make him a below market offer that will at some point be cap friendly. So they will have the ability to cut him down the road and save cap space.

I cannot see why people would think that they will let him totally walk. they can't franchise Samuel, and he is the only other player hitting the market that they have worth much at all. One year of Moss at $7.8M (IIRC that is the franchise number this coming year) would still be a steal for them.

Bri said:

How old is Faulk? Will he retire? Have you seen any interviews with him considerring retiring?

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I have not seen any interviews with him saying he was even considering retiring, but he somehow got in stories with the likes of Harrison, Brown, Seau, and Bruschi as people that could retire.He will trun 32 by opening day and is signed through 2009.

Marc Levin said:

I wouldn't either, Road Warrior, but he is heading to the downside of his career. The article I read showed the Pats' very successful strategy of cutting bait on players who are still playing well but are aging.The example they used that sticks out to me was Lawyer Malloy in 2001, who they ditched after a pro bowl season. But they had a bunch of other examples as well.

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They "ditched" Malloy to save a $3.5M cap charge. I do not believe that he was a liability performance wise. Of the players they have let walk, most of them were older, wanted too much money, or otherwise were not valued as elite talents. I am pretty sure that they consider Moss an elite talent, and they genreally pay close to top dollar for those guys (like Brady, Seymour, etc.).I would be very surprised if Moss was not a Patriot next year. The only negative I see on this is some people in the media stirring the pot or people on message boards trying to make mountains out of mole hills.

Marc Levin said:

I wouldn't either, Road Warrior, but he is heading to the downside of his career. The article I read showed the Pats' very successful strategy of cutting bait on players who are still playing well but are aging.The example they used that sticks out to me was Lawyer Malloy in 2001, who they ditched after a pro bowl season. But they had a bunch of other examples as well.

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I recall that episode. The coaching staff had ( correctly, in hindsight ) concluded that Milloy was playing below his previous level and below the value of his contract. They had spent most of that preseason trying to restructure Milloy, who refused to redo his deal. IIRC, he didn't believe they would/could cut him because of his clubhouse presence and tenure.There are far fewer stats to detail a decline of a DB, especially a safety, than a WR. There were some pretty obscure stats the NE staff had that showed Milloy's best days were behind him. And based on his play since then, he hasn't played like a top tier saftey since.NE is notorious for their cold, calculating approach to roster management, but I think it really comes down to this... If you are providing equal or better value than your contract / cap #, they'll keep you around. When they believe the can get more production for that cap money, you either rework your deal or get sent packing. I don't pretend to understand how the monetize production to make this assessment, but I'd be surprised if they don't try for a cap friendly enough deal with Moss to get 2 or 3 years out of him.

David Yudkin said:

I would be very surprised if Moss was not a Patriot next year. The only negative I see on this is some people in the media stirring the pot or people on message boards trying to make mountains out of mole hills.

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Another thing I've been thinking about in relation to this is that though everyone expects Moss to get a big payday, who exactly is the Pats competition to do so? I don't think Moss will go to a non-contender again, and in addition I don't see to many non-contenders bothering to pay him what he'd want after how things went for him in Oakland. So that leaves contenders in the bidding. Which contenders actually have a real need for a high priced Randy Moss? Some teams I can think ofWashingtonJacksonvilleTennesseeSeattleThat's about it. There are a couple of teams who may have mild interest like Tampa Bay or New Orleans. Maybe the Colts if Harrison is done, but it hasn't been their style bringing in high priced free agent WR, and Gonzales has looked good so far. Of the above 4 teams, I don't know all the particulars about their cap space, but Washington obviously has been the most free spending. I don't know how well Moss fits in with the offensive styles in Jacksonville and Tennessee, I'd think they'd make adjustments if they had him, but neither of those teams have been active players in the top end free agent market. Seattle has a couple of other needs, and it remains to be seen how they sort things out among the receivers they already have.So what other teams are going to offer Moss the big money everyone thinks he's going to get? I don't think there are going to be many more attractive offers than what the Pats will put on the table all things considered.That said, I still think it's more important that they keep Samuel than Moss.

Gr00vus said:

David Yudkin said:

I would be very surprised if Moss was not a Patriot next year. The only negative I see on this is some people in the media stirring the pot or people on message boards trying to make mountains out of mole hills.

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Another thing I've been thinking about in relation to this is that though everyone expects Moss to get a big payday, who exactly is the Pats competition to do so? I don't think Moss will go to a non-contender again, and in addition I don't see to many non-contenders bothering to pay him what he'd want after how things went for him in Oakland. So that leaves contenders in the bidding. Which contenders actually have a real need for a high priced Randy Moss? Some teams I can think ofWashingtonJacksonvilleTennesseeSeattleThat's about it. There are a couple of teams who may have mild interest like Tampa Bay or New Orleans. Maybe the Colts if Harrison is done, but it hasn't been their style bringing in high priced free agent WR, and Gonzales has looked good so far. Of the above 4 teams, I don't know all the particulars about their cap space, but Washington obviously has been the most free spending. I don't know how well Moss fits in with the offensive styles in Jacksonville and Tennessee, I'd think they'd make adjustments if they had him, but neither of those teams have been active players in the top end free agent market. Seattle has a couple of other needs, and it remains to be seen how they sort things out among the receivers they already have.So what other teams are going to offer Moss the big money everyone thinks he's going to get? I don't think there are going to be many more attractive offers than what the Pats will put on the table all things considered.That said, I still think it's more important that they keep Samuel than Moss.

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I think your list is pretty limiting. You don't think that if Harrison retired that the Colts wouldn't want Moss? How about the Cowboys lining up Owens and Moss together? The Bears were in a Super Bowl a year ago . . . are they totally out of the picture?I think there would be suitors for Moss - contenders or otherwise. While we think he'd want to play on a contender, who's to say if he did not return to the Patriots that he would not take a huge contract elsewhere" We all know that teams can go from zeroes to heroes in a year or two.I agree in principle that Samuel is an important piece to the puzzle, but I would wonder at what cost. Even last year he was eyeballing the 8 year, $80M deal Clements got in SF. I don't think that a similar deal would help the Pats.IMO, Samuel is good . . . but I am not sure he is THAT good. IMO, the Pats could draft a CB and sign a FA CB for potentally a lot less then what they would have to payout to Samuel. They also should have Meriweather staring somewhere in the secondary next season. That could give them some options (although riskier than what they have now in Samuel).Remember, it's who can put together the best team for the same allocation of money that wins in the NFL. If the Pats could (in theory) end up with 3 decent CBs for less than what it cost for Samuel, that could end up helping the team in other areas.Similarly, IMO, if Samuel goes to a so-so team he may be a decent but not great player but getting paid a fortune. I'm not totally sold that he is a Top 3 CB. I am not a huge IDP guy, but others may be able to ramble off a list of comparable players.

David Yudkin said:

Gr00vus said:

David Yudkin said:

I would be very surprised if Moss was not a Patriot next year. The only negative I see on this is some people in the media stirring the pot or people on message boards trying to make mountains out of mole hills.

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Another thing I've been thinking about in relation to this is that though everyone expects Moss to get a big payday, who exactly is the Pats competition to do so? I don't think Moss will go to a non-contender again, and in addition I don't see to many non-contenders bothering to pay him what he'd want after how things went for him in Oakland. So that leaves contenders in the bidding. Which contenders actually have a real need for a high priced Randy Moss? Some teams I can think ofWashingtonJacksonvilleTennesseeSeattleThat's about it. There are a couple of teams who may have mild interest like Tampa Bay or New Orleans. Maybe the Colts if Harrison is done, but it hasn't been their style bringing in high priced free agent WR, and Gonzales has looked good so far. Of the above 4 teams, I don't know all the particulars about their cap space, but Washington obviously has been the most free spending. I don't know how well Moss fits in with the offensive styles in Jacksonville and Tennessee, I'd think they'd make adjustments if they had him, but neither of those teams have been active players in the top end free agent market. Seattle has a couple of other needs, and it remains to be seen how they sort things out among the receivers they already have.So what other teams are going to offer Moss the big money everyone thinks he's going to get? I don't think there are going to be many more attractive offers than what the Pats will put on the table all things considered.That said, I still think it's more important that they keep Samuel than Moss.

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I think your list is pretty limiting. You don't think that if Harrison retired that the Colts wouldn't want Moss? How about the Cowboys lining up Owens and Moss together? The Bears were in a Super Bowl a year ago . . . are they totally out of the picture?I think there would be suitors for Moss - contenders or otherwise. While we think he'd want to play on a contender, who's to say if he did not return to the Patriots that he would not take a huge contract elsewhere" We all know that teams can go from zeroes to heroes in a year or two.I agree in principle that Samuel is an important piece to the puzzle, but I would wonder at what cost. Even last year he was eyeballing the 8 year, $80M deal Clements got in SF. I don't think that a similar deal would help the Pats.IMO, Samuel is good . . . but I am not sure he is THAT good. IMO, the Pats could draft a CB and sign a FA CB for potentally a lot less then what they would have to payout to Samuel. They also should have Meriweather staring somewhere in the secondary next season. That could give them some options (although riskier than what they have now in Samuel).Remember, it's who can put together the best team for the same allocation of money that wins in the NFL. If the Pats could (in theory) end up with 3 decent CBs for less than what it cost for Samuel, that could end up helping the team in other areas.Similarly, IMO, if Samuel goes to a so-so team he may be a decent but not great player but getting paid a fortune. I'm not totally sold that he is a Top 3 CB. I am not a huge IDP guy, but others may be able to ramble off a list of comparable players.

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I mentioned the Colts above as a potential suitor if Harrison goes, but honestly I don't see it. Name the last high priced free agent they signed.The Cowboys obviously have bigger needs than putting Moss and Owens on the field together - paying 9 million for Moss would be idiotic. Similarly with the Bears. Sure stupid things happen, but i'm not going to start anticipating them when trying to do a rational analysis of this situation.In relation to bang for the buck - who will it be easier to replace on the open market this offseason - a star WR or a star CB? To me it's obvious that it'll be easier to fill a hole at WR than it will be at CB. To put a twist on what you said, if the Pats could in theory end up with 3 decent WRs (or 3 decent players regardess of position) for less than what it costs for Moss, that would end up helping the team in other areas.

If you cut Moss the team's offense will go back to average.

There is very little chance they lost him in my view because there are not that many winning teams with great QBs that can afford to splurge on him.

They will give him a 3-4 year contract and be happy with it. Thats basically locks up Brady/Welker/Moss/Maroney for the next 3-4 years which is a great offense in itself.

Seau and Bruschi could be back if they wanted to be part timers and play for little to nothing just to go for a ring one last time.

Colvin is gone but they may be able to resign him since he's coming of injury.

Kbrady is cut

Donte is cut

Gaffney is cut

Faulk will be cut and then resigned

KWashington will be cut

The punter will be cut

Eckels will be cut and probably resigned

bryan215 said:

If you cut Moss the team's offense will go back to average.

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In 2006, without Moss, Welker, Morris and Stallworth the Pats were 11th in the NFL in total yards and 7th in points scored. They haven't been an average offense since Brady took over as QB.