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Dynasty QB Rankings- QB1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter jeter23
- Start date
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
As is Big Ben, i offered Manning for him and Anthony Gonzalez. I dont think the two are far apart, and its quite possible that Roethlisberger is ahead of Manning by the end of next year. The trade offered was rejected.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
Oh my....
switz
Footballguy
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I'm guessing you would not offer Manning for those two? I wish you were on the other end of that proposal. I really like Big Ben, i think there will be a "top 3" QB's next year, with Roethlisberger joining Manning and Brady.
jeter23
Footballguy
You are right on both accounts. I should have included Palmer, but I do not think it will matter.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
At least we agree on something.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Its always helpful when people recomend other players to be included in the next poll even if they would not vote for those players yet.Thanks for starting this jeter.
Arm Chair Express
Footballguy
Why? Brady had a great season (One of the best ever), but Manning is usually at 4000+ yds and 30+ Tds every year. He's finished as the #1 QB more than Brady has.
Road Warriors
Footballguy
More or less my reasoning in pickig Manning here, too. At this point, Manning is the safer pick to be QB1. Now, revisit this in a year and see if Brady has reached a new level ( by having another big statistical year ) or if he regresses back to his previous numbers ( around 3700 / 26 ). If he really has set a new level of statistical achievement ( 4000 / 30+ ), this may turn into a wash.Arm Chair Express said:
Warhogs
Footballguy
I went Manning but also agree that Palmer should be on the poll and it would probably be best to have at least 5 or 6 guys to choose from. I know Brady had the big year but his numbers should return to more of a normal set next season. I also put value on the guy who get's to play in a dome at home instead of out in the elements like Brady.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Jeter, if i may make a suggestion? When a player is obviously going to win the next poll, in this case Brady, maybe you should automatically give him the next spot, and continue the poll with the next group of players. This will probably save alot of time, and board space.
Are you going to do each postion? I hope you do, it's a great time of the year to get a consensus dynasty ranking.
Are you going to do each postion? I hope you do, it's a great time of the year to get a consensus dynasty ranking.
jeter23
Footballguy
That would be fine with me when it is obvious, as in this case. I don't want to assume too much though.I will try and do each position.Jeter, if i may make a suggestion? When a player is obviously going to win the next poll, in this case Brady, maybe you should automatically give him the next spot, and continue the poll with the next group of players. This will probably save alot of time, and board space.Are you going to do each postion? I hope you do, it's a great time of the year to get a consensus dynasty ranking.
The problem with doing this is that the people who voted for Manning here may not necessarily rank Brady #2. So theoretically all of those Manning votes may go to say Romo as the #2, dropping Brady to #3 at best. So it wouldn't be a given that Brady is #2 (I'd imagine he would be but I'm just saying logically it doesn't work like that).Jeter, if i may make a suggestion? When a player is obviously going to win the next poll, in this case Brady, maybe you should automatically give him the next spot, and continue the poll with the next group of players. This will probably save alot of time, and board space.Are you going to do each postion? I hope you do, it's a great time of the year to get a consensus dynasty ranking.
KoolKat
Footballguy
jeter23
Footballguy
I am kind of hesitant to do that, but I think it makes sense in this case. QB3 poll coming soon.
hitmenssharpshooters
Footballguy
I voted for Beck..you know..the rookie QB for Miami..
Are we talking from a fantasy perspective? If so, I like Drew Brees if they can manage to add maybe another weapon to go with Colston..they are perenially bad on Defense so you know Brees will be chucking it down the field just like the last 2 years..he did have a rocky start to the season but still managed to have a solid season.
Are we talking from a fantasy perspective? If so, I like Drew Brees if they can manage to add maybe another weapon to go with Colston..they are perenially bad on Defense so you know Brees will be chucking it down the field just like the last 2 years..he did have a rocky start to the season but still managed to have a solid season.
jeter23
Footballguy
Yes, this is from a fantasy perspective. Basically, how would you rank the QBs in fantasy? Which QB would you rather have on your fantasy team? They are all bascially the same question.I voted for Beck..you know..the rookie QB for Miami..
hitmenssharpshooters
Footballguy
Ok cool..thanks.Manning to me has "declined" if I can really say that since I had him each year in '04. Still very good.To me Brady has had 1 good fantasy season in the last 3 or 4 years. Will Moss/Stallworth be back?Romo's coaching staff has been hijacked by MAIMIYes, this is from a fantasy perspective. Basically, how would you rank the QBs in fantasy? Which QB would you rather have on your fantasy team? They are all bascially the same question.I voted for Beck..you know..the rookie QB for Miami..Are we talking from a fantasy perspective? If so, I like Drew Brees if they can manage to add maybe another weapon to go with Colston..they are perenially bad on Defense so you know Brees will be chucking it down the field just like the last 2 years..he did have a rocky start to the season but still managed to have a solid season.
who knows what they will look like.Favre will retire.Palmer's team is a mess all of a sudden.I like Brees to continue to get better from year-2-year.1A Manning1B Brees2 Brady3 Romo
jeter23
Footballguy
I tend to agree with you rzr. As I said earlier, I thought it would be much closer.
PranksterJD
Footballguy
Its probably worth noting that none of the WSL Topics in the Mock Drafts forum have Manning before Brady. Not dynasty, but interesting.ADP Thread
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Regular season is over. Manning's consistency now wins out over Brady's huge 2007 advantage. But during the season, it was hard to rank anyone over Brady when he was putting up arguably the greatest season of all time and helping you win your league. . . .which is always the goal. Now that the season is over, why should we be too beholden to the 2007 season stats? You see that mistake made every year by most of your competition.
Manning is the best, IMHO. He is more consistent, not just season-to-season, but also during FF playoffs, if for no reason other than the Dome factor. December gets pretty cold in the Pats' neck of the woods.
Did some calculating of their performance from 2001 until now during NFL weeks 13-16, which are usually the final week of the regular season + FF playoff time. Consider 1:25 yards, 6:1 TD, -2
ick
Wk 13-16 Averages:
Brady - 208 yards, 1.4 TDs, 0.8 int, 14.9 points
Manning - 275 yards, 2.0 TD, 0.8 int, 21.4 points
Games < 10 points:
Brady - 9
Manning - 4 (none since 2003)
Games > 20 points:
Brady - 8
Manning - 16
Games > 30 points:
Brady - 1
Manning - 7
Did some calculating of their performance from 2001 until now during NFL weeks 13-16, which are usually the final week of the regular season + FF playoff time. Consider 1:25 yards, 6:1 TD, -2
ickWk 13-16 Averages:
Brady - 208 yards, 1.4 TDs, 0.8 int, 14.9 points
Manning - 275 yards, 2.0 TD, 0.8 int, 21.4 points
Games < 10 points:
Brady - 9
Manning - 4 (none since 2003)
Games > 20 points:
Brady - 8
Manning - 16
Games > 30 points:
Brady - 1
Manning - 7
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comfortably numb
Footballguy
If this thread were started 3 weeks ago, Brady would have had the large gap lead.Its amazing what a good/bad few weeks will do to your credibility.1 day before the NY/NE week 17 game, callers were calling into NYC radio stations saying they should bench Eli, to see if Lorenzen could replace Eli next year, and that Eli is the 3rd best QB in NY behind Pennington and Clemmens.Now most fans would only take Brady/Peyton ahead of Eli. That is until week 3 when the Giants are 0-3 and Eli has 1TD and 7INTs.
hitmenssharpshooters
Footballguy
Ok..so let's look at the stats.
Let's back out 2007 for Brady and 2004 for Manning.
Now take the last 4 years and who has had the better FANTASY stats?
This is not a Best QB of all-time conversation.
So who had the better stats?
Did Manning "decline" after that season? What if NE falls apart maybe not in '08 but in '09? What if Brady declines? Do we know for sure Moss and Stallworth will be in NE next year? How did Brady do before Moss/Stallworth/Welker?
Let's back out 2007 for Brady and 2004 for Manning.
Now take the last 4 years and who has had the better FANTASY stats?
This is not a Best QB of all-time conversation.
So who had the better stats?
Did Manning "decline" after that season? What if NE falls apart maybe not in '08 but in '09? What if Brady declines? Do we know for sure Moss and Stallworth will be in NE next year? How did Brady do before Moss/Stallworth/Welker?
PranksterJD
Footballguy
Kinda short-term for a guy that makes his money in long-term rankings, eh?
For me, I'm not really surprised that Manning is winning, but that its by so great a margin. People can cite Manning's past all they want, but every time they do, they're including the help of one of the best receivers in the past decade, and we may have already seen the end of that particular tandem. Comparing it to Brady's statistics over the past few years is misguided IMO as well, since he was, by and large, playing with a handicap simply based on his receiving corps.All in all, there's at least a decent possibility that Harrison won't fully recover and Manning's 2007 season is where's he'll be for a while as far as stats are concerned, and as such a decent possibility that any one of a few players will produce better. Sure Manning's the safe play, but it doesn't seem like he's out of firing range anymore.Again, I think Peyton should win, and its not the fact that he's winning, but the breadth of the win that surprises me.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Kinda short-term for a guy that makes his money in long-term rankings, eh?
PranksterJD
Footballguy
Just messin around with you, brother (actually thought you were more involved in the Exit Value thread, which would have made that make a bit more sense). You're one of the premier guys around here for dynasty rankings and there have been some great discussions between yourself and some of the others, but your rankings had Brady even with Manning last week, and Tom wasn't helping many people win their leagues pre-Super Bowl... so the argument could be made that from a long-term standpoint if he was even last week using 2007 stats then he should be even now, assuming nothing in the Super Bowl itself showed a glaring hole in his game.Either way, one is #1 and one is #2.Fear & Loathing said:PranksterJD said:Kinda short-term for a guy that makes his money in long-term rankings, eh?
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loose circuits
Footballguy
we really need to know the status of Harrison and Moss before we come to a conclusion on this one.
Right now I think Moss is more likely to be helping out Brady, so I lean that way. It comes down to that for me.
I don't think Harrison will ever be the same...
Right now I think Moss is more likely to be helping out Brady, so I lean that way. It comes down to that for me.
I don't think Harrison will ever be the same...
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FUBAR
Footballguy
In larger leagues, that deal is about equal. Gonzalez will be good, Marvin should be done. There's no way I take Ben over Peyton, but when you include a probable top 20 WR, the deal is quite close. I may even prefer Ben/Gonzo if I'm building. The rejection should speak for itself.
I think this year for Brady was more of an exception than a rule (just like Manning 2004 year), and I don't think any one can realistically believe that Brady will duplicate this season, a lot of things went their way (as they did in Manning's big year) and towards the end you could see his number start to drop:
1st 13 Games:
7 times -- 300+ yards Games
11 times -- 3+ TD Games
5 times -- 4+ TD Games
5 Total Int
Last 6 Games:
1 300+ Yard Game
2 3+ TD games
0 4+ TD Games
6 Total Int's
Now whether you think this decline it because of defensive adjustments (I do) or weather is immaterial because either way it's something he has to deal with in the next couple years.
You factor in Manning's consistency, him playing in a dome, less questions around his supporting cast (he proved this year that he can put up good numbers even with out Harrison) and I think you have to rank him number one. Brady's year was unquestionably amazing in fantasy regards, but until he shows he can duplicate it, I'll view it as an outlier instead of the norm (just like I view Manning's 2004 year as an outlier).
1st 13 Games:
7 times -- 300+ yards Games
11 times -- 3+ TD Games
5 times -- 4+ TD Games
5 Total Int
Last 6 Games:
1 300+ Yard Game
2 3+ TD games
0 4+ TD Games
6 Total Int's
Now whether you think this decline it because of defensive adjustments (I do) or weather is immaterial because either way it's something he has to deal with in the next couple years.
You factor in Manning's consistency, him playing in a dome, less questions around his supporting cast (he proved this year that he can put up good numbers even with out Harrison) and I think you have to rank him number one. Brady's year was unquestionably amazing in fantasy regards, but until he shows he can duplicate it, I'll view it as an outlier instead of the norm (just like I view Manning's 2004 year as an outlier).
excellent points. Brady won a lot of people a lot of games this season, but he also helped dump just as many people out of the FF playoffs in wk 15. Week 15 is NOT an anomaly, however, as he does that every year during December, whereas Manning does not.Remember too that Manning runs the Indy offense, whereas Brady is more of a participant in it. Belichick and his O-coord call the shots and Brady has less latitude to improvise and audible. Another question that needs to be addressed as a result of this is "will Belichick try to develop the running game more?" He has a stud in Laurence Maroney and a solid backup for him, I see no reason that he wouldn't try to develop this further.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I knew you were messing around, but I didn't understand the implication that the only way to value dynasty league players is to look far into the future. Oh, and I'm sure you want to get in on the ground floor of this dynasty business where I'm earning zero dollars per month....very lucrative.Just messin around with you, brother (actually thought you were more involved in the Exit Value thread, which would have made that make a bit more sense). You're one of the premier guys around here for dynasty rankings and there have been some great discussions between yourself and some of the others, but your rankings had Brady even with Manning last week, and Tom wasn't helping many people win their leagues pre-Super Bowl... so the argument could be made that from a long-term standpoint if he was even last week using 2007 stats then he should be even now, assuming nothing in the Super Bowl itself showed a glaring hole in his game.Either way, one is #1 and one is #2.Fear & Loathing said:PranksterJD said:Kinda short-term for a guy that makes his money in long-term rankings, eh?
Often in dynasty leagues short-term priorities have to trump long-term evaluations, especially when the two players are so close in talent and outlook. You can't have a dynasty without winning this year. I have no absolutely no qualms about admitting that most dynasty players look much further into the long term than I do. I want to win every year with a balanced nucleus, and I realize you can't do that without winning the current season.My leagues keep going up through the Super Bowl, so Brady was definitely given credit for helping his teams up until this past weekend. I tend to do my re-evaluations for the coming season after it's all said and done in the playoffs. I'm not concerned about his Super Bowl performance, but I do give Manning credit for consistency when considering their value now that all remnants of the 2007 season are finished.
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