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MJD (1 Viewer)

C

Crimson King

Footballguy
Do you guys ever see MJD being a feature back or do you see him always being 1/2 of a two headed monster albeit a very good half? It looks as though Fred Taylor still may have at least one (probably more) decent years ahead of him which makes me wonder if MJD will achieve his full fantasy potential.

It is clear that the guy has phenomenal talent and the ability to be a primary ball carrier, but will he be given the chance? People often reference his size as a reason for him only splitting carries, but although he is short, he is built like a tank with thick thighs and a strong core. I don't see any reason why he couldn't be the man.

Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.

 
MJD, like most other backs, will share carries. RBBC is becoming more and more prevalent. MJD catches out of the backfield very well, but I'm not convinced he will ever be a true #1

 
Is the general consensus that he will always be a rbbc guy even after Taylor goes? It seems like he did an admirable job two seasons ago when Taylor was knicked up and he was the primary guy.

Would it then be safe to assume that most would rather take a shot on one of the rooks if they ended up in a situation where it looked as though they would be the guy? I just don't see them with the same talent as MJD (Macfadden excluded although he is somewhat of a mystery).

 
caddys daddy said:
Is the general consensus that he will always be a rbbc guy even after Taylor goes? It seems like he did an admirable job two seasons ago when Taylor was knicked up and he was the primary guy.Would it then be safe to assume that most would rather take a shot on one of the rooks if they ended up in a situation where it looked as though they would be the guy? I just don't see them with the same talent as MJD (Macfadden excluded although he is somewhat of a mystery).
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I'm pretty sure no one thought MJD would be the talent he is if you went back and checked most rookie drafts that year.
 
Thats very true, but somewhat irrelevant. What we know now is that he is a true talent, so what people thought before the draft doesn't really matter at this juncture. I was actually one of the people who bought into the argument that he was too small and it came around to bite me as I passed on him due to that generalization that he couldn't handle the pounding of the nfl.

I'm curious about what people think his role will be going forward from a dynasty perspective. What do you think his role will be in 08 and beyond. Should we look at people with greater opportunity but maybe less talent?

 
caddys daddy said:
Is the general consensus that he will always be a rbbc guy even after Taylor goes? It seems like he did an admirable job two seasons ago when Taylor was knicked up and he was the primary guy.Would it then be safe to assume that most would rather take a shot on one of the rooks if they ended up in a situation where it looked as though they would be the guy? I just don't see them with the same talent as MJD (Macfadden excluded although he is somewhat of a mystery).
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He reminds me of Westbrook in every way. He may take a year or two more to get this shot, but in PPR leagues he's a great #2 back even in RBBC with Taylor. If Taylor goes down, MJD wll go nuts and even if they pair him with another RB when Taylor hangs it up, what are the chances the back is as good as Taylor. Playing 2nd fiddle to Fred Taylor is no knock on MJD.
 
I agree completely with the Westbrook comparison and have thought about it often myself. He is dynamic, extremely fast, and can catch very well out of the backfield and has shared time his first few years just like Westbrook. Good point about Taylor's replacement in all likelihood being nowhere near as talented as Freddie T.

Would you risk the potential of one of the new rookies for what we know about MJD now?

 
caddys daddy said:
I agree completely with the Westbrook comparison and have thought about it often myself. He is dynamic, extremely fast, and can catch very well out of the backfield and has shared time his first few years just like Westbrook. Good point about Taylor's replacement in all likelihood being nowhere near as talented as Freddie T. Would you risk the potential of one of the new rookies for what we know about MJD now?
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I own him in a 3WR/2RB Dynasty PPR league and I wouldn't trade him for any of the rookies(including Mcfadden). He's got all the physical tools needed to succeed, he's in a great situation/system(Off. philosophy, line, good def, etc) and I already know what his floor is in a RBBC; very good RB2. I think the situation will only get better for him and if you've watched him play you know that this guy has got IT. At 23 years old, he's my guy over any of the rookies. I traded Big Ben for him and the #10 pick in this year's rookie draft and I'm not looking back. Pure man-love! :rolleyes:
 
chocolate bomber said:
caddys daddy said:
I agree completely with the Westbrook comparison and have thought about it often myself. He is dynamic, extremely fast, and can catch very well out of the backfield and has shared time his first few years just like Westbrook. Good point about Taylor's replacement in all likelihood being nowhere near as talented as Freddie T. Would you risk the potential of one of the new rookies for what we know about MJD now?
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I own him in a 3WR/2RB Dynasty PPR league and I wouldn't trade him for any of the rookies(including Mcfadden). He's got all the physical tools needed to succeed, he's in a great situation/system(Off. philosophy, line, good def, etc) and I already know what his floor is in a RBBC; very good RB2. I think the situation will only get better for him and if you've watched him play you know that this guy has got IT. At 23 years old, he's my guy over any of the rookies. I traded Big Ben for him and the #10 pick in this year's rookie draft and I'm not looking back. Pure man-love! :shrug:
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His receptions were down this year. The change in QB might be the reason and there is no way we'll know that until we get a bigger sample size. I have a chance to get him or L. White right now and am leaning towards White who had 20 receptions to Drew's 40, but got 303 carries to boot.
 
Arm Chair Express said:
chocolate bomber said:
caddys daddy said:
I agree completely with the Westbrook comparison and have thought about it often myself. He is dynamic, extremely fast, and can catch very well out of the backfield and has shared time his first few years just like Westbrook. Good point about Taylor's replacement in all likelihood being nowhere near as talented as Freddie T.

Would you risk the potential of one of the new rookies for what we know about MJD now?
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I own him in a 3WR/2RB Dynasty PPR league and I wouldn't trade him for any of the rookies(including Mcfadden). He's got all the physical tools needed to succeed, he's in a great situation/system(Off. philosophy, line, good def, etc) and I already know what his floor is in a RBBC; very good RB2. I think the situation will only get better for him and if you've watched him play you know that this guy has got IT. At 23 years old, he's my guy over any of the rookies. I traded Big Ben for him and the #10 pick in this year's rookie draft and I'm not looking back. Pure man-love! :goodposting:
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His receptions were down this year. The change in QB might be the reason and there is no way we'll know that until we get a bigger sample size. I have a chance to get him or L. White right now and am leaning towards White who had 20 receptions to Drew's 40, but got 303 carries to boot.
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MJD and it's not even close.
 
I agree, MJD and it isn't close at all. Jones-Drew does everything better than White, its just that white doesn't have any real competition (unless you count henry and brown).

 
Arm Chair Express said:
chocolate bomber said:
caddys daddy said:
I agree completely with the Westbrook comparison and have thought about it often myself. He is dynamic, extremely fast, and can catch very well out of the backfield and has shared time his first few years just like Westbrook. Good point about Taylor's replacement in all likelihood being nowhere near as talented as Freddie T. Would you risk the potential of one of the new rookies for what we know about MJD now?
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I own him in a 3WR/2RB Dynasty PPR league and I wouldn't trade him for any of the rookies(including Mcfadden). He's got all the physical tools needed to succeed, he's in a great situation/system(Off. philosophy, line, good def, etc) and I already know what his floor is in a RBBC; very good RB2. I think the situation will only get better for him and if you've watched him play you know that this guy has got IT. At 23 years old, he's my guy over any of the rookies. I traded Big Ben for him and the #10 pick in this year's rookie draft and I'm not looking back. Pure man-love! :thumbup:
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His receptions were down this year. The change in QB might be the reason and there is no way we'll know that until we get a bigger sample size. I have a chance to get him or L. White right now and am leaning towards White who had 20 receptions to Drew's 40, but got 303 carries to boot.
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While his recs are down, he's a great receiver. Not sure you can say that about anyone else on that team right now. I obviously love the kid and I'm pimping him to anyone that will listen bc after this season, you may not be able to to touch him in dynasty PPR leagues(think Westbrook). In dynasty leagues, I want the elite player and I'm willing to sacrifice the touches he'll lose to Taylor for the moment. I don't consider Lendale White an elite talent in the NFL. At best, with enough carries, maybe LW is the next Rudi Johnson. Not a bad FF player, but you won't be collecting trophies on his back.
 
kethnaab said:
MJD, like most other backs, will share carries. RBBC is becoming more and more prevalent. MJD catches out of the backfield very well, but I'm not convinced he will ever be a true #1
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Gridiron King said:
He will split carries most of his career.
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Please stop this. RBBC is DOWN every year, especially since the 90's and before. Too many people here jump to RBBC conclusions with people.Backs come in and spell players, maybe reducing the primary back's percentage to 70% or so, but that happens everywhere. Doesn't count as RBBC.
 
I've pretty much got a reputation as an MJD hater on this board, so you might discount this post. Reality is I like MJD, he's impressive, but you have to see things from an unbiased perspective.

1. His rookie season, no one expected MJD to play as good as he did.

2. Toward the end of the year when he got more of a work load his numbers decreased.

3. This past year, he did not live up to expectations at all.

From what I've seen, I don't expect MJD to ever be a "carry the load" type of player. As far as fantasy points, he's going to border on top-10, but will never be upper echelon starting material (top-5).

Just my $0.02...

 
Keys Myaths said:
kethnaab said:
MJD, like most other backs, will share carries. RBBC is becoming more and more prevalent. MJD catches out of the backfield very well, but I'm not convinced he will ever be a true #1
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Gridiron King said:
He will split carries most of his career.
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Please stop this. RBBC is DOWN every year, especially since the 90's and before. Too many people here jump to RBBC conclusions with people.Backs come in and spell players, maybe reducing the primary back's percentage to 70% or so, but that happens everywhere. Doesn't count as RBBC.
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This is true...but what are you saying, that Taylor and MJD weren't a RBBC situation last year? I had both and was conflicted/tormented by weekly decisions every week including some huge decisions down the stretch.I for one can say I started Fred Taylor as he didn't let me down the entire way.I do think this is a RBBC situation in Jax. The good news is they are a very good rushing football, that plays solid defense. MJD will not only get some rushing TD's, but he's very underrated in any league that has PPR.It's kind of odd. You have the goaline back who gets the catches as well, and then you got another guy that's pretty much used on the ground from the 10 till the 10.
 
I think he's going to be a monster. 4.6 ypc and 9 TD's in '07, a year where he didn't live up to expectations. I think MJD's '07 is more a testament to how awesome Taylor was (limiting MJD's chances) than an indictment against Jones-Drew himself.

And the stuff about his numbers decreasing toward the end of the year when he got more work is wrong. He had 17 more attempts in the 2nd half of the the season than he had in the first half. And MJD's ypc splits per quarter are 1st - 4.1 - 2nd - 4.4 - 3rd - 4.5 and 4th/OT - 5.0

 
switz said:
This past year, he did not live up to expectations at all.
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That couldn't be more incorrect. He was routinely drafted somewhere between #10 and #20 among RBs and finished somewhere between #10 and #15 among RBs, depending on scoring system. If you were one of those that made a 1500/15 projection MJD didn't live up to your expectation because that was unreasonable. He lived up to my expectations...once Koetter took four weeks to figure out how to properly utilize him.
 
caddys daddy said:
Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.
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He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.
 
SSOG said:
caddys daddy said:
Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.
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He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.
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This is true.....but let's be honest. He was horrible the first part of the season........and he cost a lot of people some games. Now, if you've been burned 4 weeks in a row on him, you start to look somewhere else. Maybe it's an E. Graham that you pick up or whatever, something like him or a WR at flex.Now all of a sudden, he starts producing on your bench.Now, you can say never bench your studs or whatever but if you're just being completely honest, MJD was a frustrating player to have on your team this year.I agree with you on your overall numbers but many of the people who drafted him definately lost early on him and probably missed out on a few of his decent games because of the lack of confidence due to his poor early performance.
 
FantasyTrader said:
And the stuff about his numbers decreasing toward the end of the year when he got more work is wrong. He had 17 more attempts in the 2nd half of the the season than he had in the first half. And MJD's ypc splits per quarter are 1st - 4.1 - 2nd - 4.4 - 3rd - 4.5 and 4th/OT - 5.0
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That was in reference to the '06-'07 season, not this season. He didn't have any games where he "carried the load" this past season. The previous season he did and his numbers suffered.
 
MAC_32 said:
switz said:
This past year, he did not live up to expectations at all.
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That couldn't be more incorrect. He was routinely drafted somewhere between #10 and #20 among RBs and finished somewhere between #10 and #15 among RBs, depending on scoring system. If you were one of those that made a 1500/15 projection MJD didn't live up to your expectation because that was unreasonable. He lived up to my expectations...once Koetter took four weeks to figure out how to properly utilize him.
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No, he didn't live up to expectations, except in revisionist history. His total number may have ended up good, but he was terribly inconsistent, and most owners who drafted him and counted on him to be their #2 suffered.
 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
SSOG said:
caddys daddy said:
Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.
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He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.
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This is true.....but let's be honest. He was horrible the first part of the season........and he cost a lot of people some games. Now, if you've been burned 4 weeks in a row on him, you start to look somewhere else. Maybe it's an E. Graham that you pick up or whatever, something like him or a WR at flex.Now all of a sudden, he starts producing on your bench.Now, you can say never bench your studs or whatever but if you're just being completely honest, MJD was a frustrating player to have on your team this year.I agree with you on your overall numbers but many of the people who drafted him definately lost early on him and probably missed out on a few of his decent games because of the lack of confidence due to his poor early performance.
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He wasn't horrible at the beginning of the season, he wasn't being properly utilized by the coaching staff. The new OC, a former college coach in a pass-happy offense, didn't know how to best use MJD. Once he figured it out - read, Del Rio straightened him out - MJD became his old self again. I didn't know he was going to do such a terrible job handling MJD at first, but I was confident after how awful the offense looked before the bye week that Del Rio and the rest of the staff were going to figure out the problem.
 
switz said:
MAC_32 said:
switz said:
This past year, he did not live up to expectations at all.
Click to expand...
That couldn't be more incorrect. He was routinely drafted somewhere between #10 and #20 among RBs and finished somewhere between #10 and #15 among RBs, depending on scoring system. If you were one of those that made a 1500/15 projection MJD didn't live up to your expectation because that was unreasonable. He lived up to my expectations...once Koetter took four weeks to figure out how to properly utilize him.
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No, he didn't live up to expectations, except in revisionist history. His total number may have ended up good, but he was terribly inconsistent, and most owners who drafted him and counted on him to be their #2 suffered.
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Anyone who picked up MJD expecting consistency made a poor projection as well, he's a home run hitter who doubles as a goal line back - there were going to be weeks in which he accumulated 40 yds and no TDs. At least I expected that, I won't speak for others. There were simply too many question marks after the top 10-12 were off the board [Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown, Rudi Johnson, Thomas Jones, Reggie Bush, Sean Alexander] for me to believe in anyone else.
 
switz said:
FantasyTrader said:
And the stuff about his numbers decreasing toward the end of the year when he got more work is wrong. He had 17 more attempts in the 2nd half of the the season than he had in the first half. And MJD's ypc splits per quarter are 1st - 4.1 - 2nd - 4.4 - 3rd - 4.5 and 4th/OT - 5.0
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That was in reference to the '06-'07 season, not this season. He didn't have any games where he "carried the load" this past season. The previous season he did and his numbers suffered.
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In all seriousness because I'm not following at all. In what games did MJD "carry the load" the previous season where his numbers suffered? Was it:Week 8 at Eagles: 21-77-0 rushing, 3-20-0 receivingWeek 14 vs Colts: 15-166-2 rushing, 1-15-0 receivingWeek 15 at Titans: 25-98-1 rushing, 3-47-0 receivingWeek 16 vs Patriots: 19-131-2 rushing, 6-41 receivingWeek 17 at Chiefs: 12-46-1 rushing, 4-16 receiving
 
MAC_32 said:
He wasn't horrible at the beginning of the season, he wasn't being properly utilized by the coaching staff. The new OC, a former college coach in a pass-happy offense, didn't know how to best use MJD. Once he figured it out - read, Del Rio straightened him out - MJD became his old self again. I didn't know he was going to do such a terrible job handling MJD at first, but I was confident after how awful the offense looked before the bye week that Del Rio and the rest of the staff were going to figure out the problem.
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Another post of revisionist history...He had 11 carries week 2, a whopping 2.8 YPCHe had 15 carries week 3, a whopping 2.5 YPCHe had 12 carries week 11, a whopping 2.8 YPCHe had 10 carries in week 12, a whopping 1.0 YPC (against the vaunted Bills D LOL)He had 11 carries week 14, a whopping 2.2 YPCSo you're saying the coach figured out how to use him after week 4, but forgot again later in the year???He ran behind the same line as Taylor, and often in better situations for a runner (obvious passing downs) yet Taylor had about 60 more carries for almost twice as many rush yards.MJD had exactly TWO 100 yard games! TEN games under 50 yards. You can't say he was doing well :shrug: He had a couple GREAT games. But a couple great games with an average season doesn't make you a great FF back. I don't think the kid doesn't have talent, but buyer beware...
 
I doubt that he ever heads into a season as "the guy." That isn't to say that he won't become a 300 carry back though due to injuries to the other guy or something.

 
SayWhat? said:
switz said:
FantasyTrader said:
And the stuff about his numbers decreasing toward the end of the year when he got more work is wrong. He had 17 more attempts in the 2nd half of the the season than he had in the first half. And MJD's ypc splits per quarter are 1st - 4.1 - 2nd - 4.4 - 3rd - 4.5 and 4th/OT - 5.0
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That was in reference to the '06-'07 season, not this season. He didn't have any games where he "carried the load" this past season. The previous season he did and his numbers suffered.
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In all seriousness because I'm not following at all. In what games did MJD "carry the load" the previous season where his numbers suffered? Was it:Week 8 at Eagles: 21-77-0 rushing, 3-20-0 receiving <- 3.7 YPCWeek 14 vs Colts: 15-166-2 rushing, 1-15-0 receivingWeek 15 at Titans: 25-98-1 rushing, 3-47-0 receiving <- 3.9 YPCWeek 16 vs Patriots: 19-131-2 rushing, 6-41 receiving <- had a 74 yard TD, without which his YPC was 3.2Week 17 at Chiefs: 12-46-1 rushing, 4-16 receiving <- 3.8 YPC
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Now I know you can't take out one long play, but anyone who watched that game week 16 saw that MJD did NOT look very good. In fact when I was watching that game, I thought MJD wasn't running good because of the high carry total the previous week. He ended up scoring on that big play due to a couple mistakes by the defense, and his total's were good, but overall when carrying the load, his production hasn't been great. Say that his end of the year YPC was under 4, do you think JAX would consider him feature back material? Probably not.
 
switz said:
MAC_32 said:
He wasn't horrible at the beginning of the season, he wasn't being properly utilized by the coaching staff. The new OC, a former college coach in a pass-happy offense, didn't know how to best use MJD. Once he figured it out - read, Del Rio straightened him out - MJD became his old self again. I didn't know he was going to do such a terrible job handling MJD at first, but I was confident after how awful the offense looked before the bye week that Del Rio and the rest of the staff were going to figure out the problem.
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Another post of revisionist history...He had 11 carries week 2, a whopping 2.8 YPCHe had 15 carries week 3, a whopping 2.5 YPCHe had 12 carries week 11, a whopping 2.8 YPCHe had 10 carries in week 12, a whopping 1.0 YPC (against the vaunted Bills D LOL)He had 11 carries week 14, a whopping 2.2 YPCSo you're saying the coach figured out how to use him after week 4, but forgot again later in the year???He ran behind the same line as Taylor, and often in better situations for a runner (obvious passing downs) yet Taylor had about 60 more carries for almost twice as many rush yards.MJD had exactly TWO 100 yard games! TEN games under 50 yards. You can't say he was doing well :thumbup: He had a couple GREAT games. But a couple great games with an average season doesn't make you a great FF back. I don't think the kid doesn't have talent, but buyer beware...
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Two of his first three games of the season were lame ducks, three of his last thirteen were. It's easy to prove a point by manipulating data, most RBs have a couple down games especially when your touches are limited like MJD's were - three out of thirteen is nothing out of the ordinary. Once again if you weren't expecting a couple of stinkers from MJD pre-season you were setting yourself up for disappointment, such is life with a RB who has his # of touches minimized.My main problem with your support is your statement of MJD's only in there on obvious passing downs. Not true. Not true at all. On most offenses, yes they're obvious passing downs, but in Jacksonville? A team with some of the worst WR talent in the league and who's best home run threat is a RB? That tells me those opposing DC's schemed to make someone else other than MJD beat them, which if I were in their position I would do the same. However, as evidenced by his bigger games that is not always the case. Besides, MJD is the primary goal line back, you forgot to mention that in your analysis. I'll add, of the options that presented themself in the 2nd round MJD ended up being a better option than most. Inconsistent? Yes. But was he a better option than Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson [yes, I realize he routinely was drafted earlier, but he was in the 2nd round on my board and I saw him fall that far on occasion], Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, Sean Alexander [same explanation as Rudi], Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Ronnie Brown? With the exception of the pre-injury version of Ronnie Brown, yes.
 
switz said:
FantasyTrader said:
And the stuff about his numbers decreasing toward the end of the year when he got more work is wrong. He had 17 more attempts in the 2nd half of the the season than he had in the first half. And MJD's ypc splits per quarter are 1st - 4.1 - 2nd - 4.4 - 3rd - 4.5 and 4th/OT - 5.0
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That was in reference to the '06-'07 season, not this season. He didn't have any games where he "carried the load" this past season. The previous season he did and his numbers suffered.
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Which of these weeks counts as "carrying the load"?I don't consider myself a fan of the guy, but there seems to be a bunch of statements on both ends of the spectrum. I'm guessing the real answer is somewhere in the middle.EDIT: Note to Doug Drinen. Copying and pasting stats from the new format at your site leaves a lot to be desired. I tried to copy his numbers from the 06-07 season but it looked horrid.
 
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MAC_32 said:
switz said:
MAC_32 said:
He wasn't horrible at the beginning of the season, he wasn't being properly utilized by the coaching staff. The new OC, a former college coach in a pass-happy offense, didn't know how to best use MJD. Once he figured it out - read, Del Rio straightened him out - MJD became his old self again. I didn't know he was going to do such a terrible job handling MJD at first, but I was confident after how awful the offense looked before the bye week that Del Rio and the rest of the staff were going to figure out the problem.
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Another post of revisionist history...He had 11 carries week 2, a whopping 2.8 YPC

He had 15 carries week 3, a whopping 2.5 YPC

He had 12 carries week 11, a whopping 2.8 YPC

He had 10 carries in week 12, a whopping 1.0 YPC (against the vaunted Bills D LOL)

He had 11 carries week 14, a whopping 2.2 YPC

So you're saying the coach figured out how to use him after week 4, but forgot again later in the year???

He ran behind the same line as Taylor, and often in better situations for a runner (obvious passing downs) yet Taylor had about 60 more carries for almost twice as many rush yards.

MJD had exactly TWO 100 yard games! TEN games under 50 yards. You can't say he was doing well :football: He had a couple GREAT games. But a couple great games with an average season doesn't make you a great FF back. I don't think the kid doesn't have talent, but buyer beware...
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Two of his first three games of the season were lame ducks, three of his last thirteen were. It's easy to prove a point by manipulating data, most RBs have a couple down games especially when your touches are limited like MJD's were - three out of thirteen is nothing out of the ordinary. Once again if you weren't expecting a couple of stinkers from MJD pre-season you were setting yourself up for disappointment, such is life with a RB who has his # of touches minimized.My main problem with your support is your statement of MJD's only in there on obvious passing downs. Not true. Not true at all. On most offenses, yes they're obvious passing downs, but in Jacksonville? A team with some of the worst WR talent in the league and who's best home run threat is a RB? That tells me those opposing DC's schemed to make someone else other than MJD beat them, which if I were in their position I would do the same. However, as evidenced by his bigger games that is not always the case. Besides, MJD is the primary goal line back, you forgot to mention that in your analysis.
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I said often, NOT only. Regardless, yes he was also their GL back. And he had only ONE multi-rushing-TD game. His numbers dropped in every area from the previous season.

YPC down 1.1

Rush yards down almost 200

His carries were actually up by one.

Receiving yards down by 30, receptions down by 6.

Receiving TDs from 2 to 0.

I can't see how anyone wasn't disappointed. He regressed in nearly every category.

MAC_32 said:
I'll add, of the options that presented themself in the 2nd round MJD ended up being a better option than most. Inconsistent? Yes. But was he a better option than Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson [yes, I realize he routinely was drafted earlier, but he was in the 2nd round on my board and I saw him fall that far on occasion], Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, Sean Alexander [same explanation as Rudi], Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Ronnie Brown? With the exception of the pre-injury version of Ronnie Brown, yes.
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MJD had 1175 yards, 9 TDsI'm wondering how he was a better option than James, who had 2 fewer TDs (12 pts) but 250 more yards (25 points)

Reggie was injured, but in 10 games put up 1,000 yards and 6 TDs. One would think in 6 more games he would have finished higher than MJD (though he was often drafted higher too)

Alexander was injured too, but in 10 games put up 800 yards and 5 TDs, and one would think with 6 more games he would have finished comparable to MJD.

Cedric Benson was a total bust, and most of us thought he would be, I can't believe anyone drafted him in the second round.

Thomas Jones, he had the yardage, not the TDs. Still he was a disappointment.

Rudi Johnson and Ronnie Brown were injured, so they can't even really be included. But as you admit, Ronnie was way outperforming MJD before injury.

Injuries are hard to predict, but I would be hard pressed to say any of them outside of TJ were more disappointing than MJD. They were injured, but at least you knew not to play them then.

Here are some other 2nd to 3rd round RBs...

Jamal Lewis

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Fred Taylor

Ryan Grant (undrafted likely)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber

Earnest Graham (undrafted likely)

They all outperformed MJD, and none of them outside of Peterson were expected to be top-10, yet MJD was...

Unless you're in PPR which may have given MJD a slight edge...

 
switz said:
Here are some other 2nd to 3rd round RBs...Jamal LewisAdrian PetersonMarshawn LynchFred TaylorRyan Grant (undrafted likely)Clinton PortisMarion BarberEarnest Graham (undrafted likely)They all outperformed MJD, and none of them outside of Peterson were expected to be top-10, yet MJD was...Unless you're in PPR which may have given MJD a slight edge...
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Most of those guys are not 2nd or 3rd rd RBs. Yes, those players out-produced MJD, but only three of them routinely went off the board before round 5 - Marshawn [3rd], All Day [3rd or 4th], and Portis [3rd or 4th]. I was talking about value. Of the players routinely taken in round 2 MJD out-produced most of them. I didn't realize Edge's numbers were so close to MJD's, but that was likely because he was just consistently average, not surprisingly. I would rather swing for the fences with MJD than hit a single to right with Edge. Reggie needed a Deuce injury to get the featured role and as many predicted broke down with the heavy workload. And he played 12 games, not 10.Alexander played in 13 games not 10 [why are you making this stuff up?] and his decline is more age related than injury related. If you feel otherwise go ahead and draft him in 08. He's done and he's been done.Predicting a down year for Rudi was more than just a fluke injury. Only a couple backs have ever stayed fully healthy for 5 years in a row, one of them is LT. There's only so much pounding one's body can take.----------I still don't see how MJD's 07 season did not live up to his drafters' expectations unless they made unreasonable ones to start with. I had him for 1200/11, so he missed out b a few yards a couple of TDs. I don't consider that disappointing, maybe you do, but I don't.
 
MAC_32 said:
switz said:
Here are some other 2nd to 3rd round RBs...

Jamal Lewis

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Fred Taylor

Ryan Grant (undrafted likely)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber

Earnest Graham (undrafted likely)

They all outperformed MJD, and none of them outside of Peterson were expected to be top-10, yet MJD was...

Unless you're in PPR which may have given MJD a slight edge...
Click to expand...
Most of those guys are not 2nd or 3rd rd RBs. Yes, those players out-produced MJD, but only three of them routinely went off the board before round 5 - Marshawn [3rd], All Day [3rd or 4th], and Portis [3rd or 4th]. I was talking about value. Of the players routinely taken in round 2 MJD out-produced most of them.
Click to expand...
Wait, you're talking about value, yet those players outperformed MJD and were drafted later and MJD was value?? And I'm not sure what drafts you were in, but most of the guys I listed had second round ADPs.Here's off AntSports:

12. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 2.06.86 1.04 7.08 2416 13. Laurence Maroney RB NEP 2.07.53 1.03 12.00 2687 14. Edgerrin James RB ARI 2.10.62 1.04 9.01 2531 15. Clinton Portis RB WAS 3.05.89 1.03 9.11 2638 16. Thomas Jones RB NYJ 3.10.00 1.05 12.10 2868 17. Cedric Benson RB CHI 3.12.86 1.07 16.06 3055 18. Marshawn Lynch RB BUF 4.05.00 1.09 14.08 2761 19. Carnell Williams RB TBB 4.07.00 1.06 15.08 2787 20. Travis Henry RB DEN 4.09.00 1.01 18.07 2999 21. Deuce McAllister RB NOS 5.02.92 1.11 10.03 2919 22. Adrian Peterson RB MIN 5.03.62 1.03 12.04 2771 23. Ahman Green RB HOU 5.05.85 2.00 10.00 2974 24. Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 5.11.00 1.06 22.11 2945 25. Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 5.11.64 2.00 18.06 3292 26. Jamal Lewis RB CLE 6.02.00 2.03 10.10 2828Brown, Edge, Portis, Lynch, Henry, Peterson, and Lewis were all better options, of course barring their injuries, which no one could have expected.
MAC_32 said:
I didn't realize Edge's numbers were so close to MJD's, but that was likely because he was just consistently average, not surprisingly. I would rather swing for the fences with MJD than hit a single to right with Edge.
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So you'd rather lose 5 or 6 games because your RB stinks up the joint, than win them. Sure...
MAC_32 said:
Reggie needed a Deuce injury to get the featured role and as many predicted broke down with the heavy workload. And he played 12 games, not 10.
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He started 10 games, played in 12, my mistake. Still, give him 4 more games, not nursing an injury, and see what happens. And what does him needing a Deuce injury have anything to do with the price of tea in China... It doesn't remove the facts, that he was outperforming MJD on a per game basis.
MAC_32 said:
Alexander played in 13 games not 10 [why are you making this stuff up?] and his decline is more age related than injury related. If you feel otherwise go ahead and draft him in 08. He's done and he's been done.
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Same mistake as before, looking at starts, not played. Still doesn't change anything. As for whether he's done or not, we aren't talking about how he'll do next year in comparison to MJD. We're talking about this past season. And the fact that and aging over-the-hill RB, no make that two with Edge, outperformed this up-and-coming exciting RB says something.
MAC_32 said:
Predicting a down year for Rudi was more than just a fluke injury. Only a couple backs have ever stayed fully healthy for 5 years in a row, one of them is LT. There's only so much pounding one's body can take.
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I don't know what you are talking about here... that has nothing to do what what I wrote.
MAC_32 said:
I still don't see how MJD's 07 season did not live up to his drafters' expectations unless they made unreasonable ones to start with. I had him for 1200/11, so he missed out b a few yards a couple of TDs. I don't consider that disappointing, maybe you do, but I don't.
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He regressed... there's no way anyone drafted him expecting him to regress. When you look at some of the guys you could have drafted instead of him, you have to be disappointed, unless you're in a dynast and rate youth higher. Sure there are other backs he outperformed, but that was expected of him... People also expected him to outperform Taylor and win the starting job, which is part of the reason his ADP was so high... he didn't do that, and it doesn't look like he'll do that next season either.
 
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switz said:
MAC_32 said:
switz said:
Here are some other 2nd to 3rd round RBs...

Jamal Lewis

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Fred Taylor

Ryan Grant (undrafted likely)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber

Earnest Graham (undrafted likely)

They all outperformed MJD, and none of them outside of Peterson were expected to be top-10, yet MJD was...

Unless you're in PPR which may have given MJD a slight edge...
Click to expand...
Most of those guys are not 2nd or 3rd rd RBs. Yes, those players out-produced MJD, but only three of them routinely went off the board before round 5 - Marshawn [3rd], All Day [3rd or 4th], and Portis [3rd or 4th]. I was talking about value. Of the players routinely taken in round 2 MJD out-produced most of them.
Click to expand...
Wait, you're talking about value, yet those players outperformed MJD and were drafted later and MJD was value?? And I'm not sure what drafts you were in, but most of the guys I listed had second round ADPs.Here's off AntSports:

12. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 2.06.86 1.04 7.08 2416 13. Laurence Maroney RB NEP 2.07.53 1.03 12.00 2687 14. Edgerrin James RB ARI 2.10.62 1.04 9.01 2531 15. Clinton Portis RB WAS 3.05.89 1.03 9.11 2638 16. Thomas Jones RB NYJ 3.10.00 1.05 12.10 2868 17. Cedric Benson RB CHI 3.12.86 1.07 16.06 3055 18. Marshawn Lynch RB BUF 4.05.00 1.09 14.08 2761 19. Carnell Williams RB TBB 4.07.00 1.06 15.08 2787 20. Travis Henry RB DEN 4.09.00 1.01 18.07 2999 21. Deuce McAllister RB NOS 5.02.92 1.11 10.03 2919 22. Adrian Peterson RB MIN 5.03.62 1.03 12.04 2771 23. Ahman Green RB HOU 5.05.85 2.00 10.00 2974 24. Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 5.11.00 1.06 22.11 2945 25. Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 5.11.64 2.00 18.06 3292 26. Jamal Lewis RB CLE 6.02.00 2.03 10.10 2828Brown, Edge, Portis, Lynch, Henry, Peterson, and Lewis were all better options, of course barring their injuries, which no one could have expected.
MAC_32 said:
I didn't realize Edge's numbers were so close to MJD's, but that was likely because he was just consistently average, not surprisingly. I would rather swing for the fences with MJD than hit a single to right with Edge.
Click to expand...
So you'd rather lose 5 or 6 games because your RB stinks up the joint, than win them. Sure...
MAC_32 said:
Reggie needed a Deuce injury to get the featured role and as many predicted broke down with the heavy workload. And he played 12 games, not 10.
Click to expand...
He started 10 games, played in 12, my mistake. Still, give him 4 more games, not nursing an injury, and see what happens. And what does him needing a Deuce injury have anything to do with the price of tea in China... It doesn't remove the facts, that he was outperforming MJD on a per game basis.
MAC_32 said:
Alexander played in 13 games not 10 [why are you making this stuff up?] and his decline is more age related than injury related. If you feel otherwise go ahead and draft him in 08. He's done and he's been done.
Click to expand...
Same mistake as before, looking at starts, not played. Still doesn't change anything. As for whether he's done or not, we aren't talking about how he'll do next year in comparison to MJD. We're talking about this past season. And the fact that and aging over-the-hill RB, no make that two with Edge, outperformed this up-and-coming exciting RB says something.
MAC_32 said:
Predicting a down year for Rudi was more than just a fluke injury. Only a couple backs have ever stayed fully healthy for 5 years in a row, one of them is LT. There's only so much pounding one's body can take.
Click to expand...
I don't know what you are talking about here... that has nothing to do what what I wrote.
MAC_32 said:
I still don't see how MJD's 07 season did not live up to his drafters' expectations unless they made unreasonable ones to start with. I had him for 1200/11, so he missed out b a few yards a couple of TDs. I don't consider that disappointing, maybe you do, but I don't.
Click to expand...
He regressed... there's no way anyone drafted him expecting him to regress. When you look at some of the guys you could have drafted instead of him, you have to be disappointed, unless you're in a dynast and rate youth higher. Sure there are other backs he outperformed, but that was expected of him... People also expected him to outperform Taylor and win the starting job, which is part of the reason his ADP was so high... he didn't do that, and it doesn't look like he'll do that next season either.
Click to expand...
Does that say MJD's ADP was 5.11? If that's the case this data list can't be relied on. I never saw him last through the 3rd round in any decent draft last season.I would rather have an upside play as my RB2, somebody who could net me 20+ in a given week, than a steady average guy. The 20 pt weeks likely vaulted me to wins with MJD, but I could still win in a 5 point week. A player consistently netting me 11 pts provides little-to-no advantage over the competition. This is just me though.

The Deuce injury led him to receive more opportunities than he would have had he been healthy then he broke down because he is not a capable player between the tackles. Once again, my belief. I think the chances of Reggie breaking down would have been less had he been able to stay in his planned role before the season began.

Alexander did not out-produce MJD no matter how you look at it. Stating so is just plain false. He was a less productive and reliable version of Edge.

You cited Rudi's health as the reason for him not out-performing MJD. I believe the end of the line is nearing for Rudi and it was visible before this season. He was used in a Herman Edwards-esque way during his career. His health, or rather projected health, was just one reason I valued MJD over him.

Those people placed poor expectations on MJD, that's all. You can hope he over takes Taylor, you can hope Taylor shows his age, you can hope Fragile Fred lives up to his moniker, you can hope his role will increase regardless of Taylor's health, but expect it? That was naive. His expectation was the same as the others mentioned, the difference being his upside was enormous; that's why he was a better pick than any of these other options.

FWIW, MJD had 10 TDs this year not 9, he also had a return TD.

 
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i think he could make it as a feature back, but personally (as a jags fan, not an MJD owner), i'd prefer to never have to find out.

as long as you have 2 backs that can successfully fill their roles, there's no reason to put 25 carries/game on most backs.

i assume the jags will ride freddy as long as possible and be looking for another guy soon to get 10-15 carries.

i assume MJD will always get 20 touches/game (15-18 carries and some catches).

the MJD/MBIII role works well: let someone else "start", take some of the pounding, and get the majority of the "between the 20's" carries. save your more explosive back for important situations.

 
Will he be a feature back? Nobody knows. As things stand right now with him on my roster in a dynasty league, 1/2 the year he frustrates the heck out of me. The other half he frustrates my opponent. But I'm not trading him.

Here's what I DO know. If he ever gets his shot I don't want my opponent lining him up against me.

 
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Enforcer said:
switz said:
That was in reference to the '06-'07 season, not this season. He didn't have any games where he "carried the load" this past season. The previous season he did and his numbers suffered.
Click to expand...
Which of these weeks counts as "carrying the load"?
Click to expand...
You ever get the feeling you were being ignored? :crickets:
 
switz said:
Enforcer said:
Enforcer said:
switz said:
That was in reference to the '06-'07 season, not this season. He didn't have any games where he "carried the load" this past season. The previous season he did and his numbers suffered.
Click to expand...
Which of these weeks counts as "carrying the load"?
Click to expand...
You ever get the feeling you were being ignored? :crickets:
Click to expand...
Since I already answered that earlier, I'm thinking perhaps you just missed it....
Click to expand...
:mellow: Thanks, switz. Appreciate you pointing that out. Have to run at the moment. I'll try and get back to comment later.

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
SSOG said:
caddys daddy said:
Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.
Click to expand...
He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.
Click to expand...
This is true.....but let's be honest. He was horrible the first part of the season........and he cost a lot of people some games. Now, if you've been burned 4 weeks in a row on him, you start to look somewhere else. Maybe it's an E. Graham that you pick up or whatever, something like him or a WR at flex.Now all of a sudden, he starts producing on your bench.Now, you can say never bench your studs or whatever but if you're just being completely honest, MJD was a frustrating player to have on your team this year.I agree with you on your overall numbers but many of the people who drafted him definately lost early on him and probably missed out on a few of his decent games because of the lack of confidence due to his poor early performance.
Click to expand...
He had 3 bad weeks and then the bye. In his 4th game, he had 100+ yards and a score. In his 5th game, he had 180+ yards and 2 scores. If you bench your 2nd round pick after 3 bad games, then you deserve what you get. Even more so if you KEEP him on the bench after he has a great game in week 4.
 
Serious Q... has any RB ever shown what MJD has show thus far and not ended up being a starting #1 RB? Runs, catches, blocks, is a big play threat - all in the extreme. What on earth would keep him from getting the load at some point?

 
wdcrob said:
Serious Q... has any RB ever shown what MJD has show thus far and not ended up being a starting #1 RB? Runs, catches, blocks, is a big play threat - all in the extreme. What on earth would keep him from getting the load at some point?
Click to expand...
After the last two seasons Maurice Jones Drew's talent is unquestionable IMO. However it's no great mystery as to why he isn't the #1 RB carrying 250+ times per season on his own team. Sharing the workload has a whole lot less to do with MJD's durablilty, size, or skills, than it has to do with being a teammate of one of the best RBs in the history of the NFL. That's the main reason why MJD is currently stuck in a RBBC.I know this is a fantasy football message board, but IMO people just aren't appreciating how good Fred Taylor's career has been. Of the 22 NFL RBs who have rushed for over 10,000 yards, Fred Taylor's 4.69 YPC is 3rd best, behind only Barry Sanders (4.99) and Tiki Barber(4.71). Fred is currently 16th on this list in terms of total career yards rushing and if he plays for a couple more seasons, then he should easily retire as a top 10 RB in terms of career rushing yards. That's pretty special, and it should come as no surprise that the Jaguars continue to give Taylor 200-250 carries per season. IMO Jacksonville would be foolish not to utilize the talents of both of their very talented RBs, much as they have so far.

However, Taylor is now 32 yrs. old, and MJD is only about to turn 23. The 'historical data dominator' reveals that only 21 times have RBs over the age of 32 managed 200+ rushes in a season since 1960. The most recent was Warrick Dunn in 2007 and that wasn't a particularly memorable performance. I won't predict doom and gloom for Taylor in '08, but undoubtedly sometime soon age has to start catching up with him.

So to answer your question, "What on earth would keep him from getting the load at some point?"

Unless Freddie can discover the fountain of youth or the Jaguars can replace him with another freakishly good RB, then very little will stand in MJD's way of becoming the #1 starting RB. And I would say sooner rather than later...

 
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geoff8695 said:
Unless Freddie can discover the fountain of youth or the Jaguars can replace him with another freakishly good RB, then very little will stand in MJD's way of becoming the #1 starting RB. And I would say sooner rather than later...
Click to expand...
The Q was aimed at those who are saying, "no." I was hoping one of them could point to a similarly talented back that didn't eventually emerge as a #1, bellcow sort of guy. Based on the # of people saying he'll always split carries I'm guessing there must be 100s or 1000s of them. Oddly I can't think of any right now though.
 
geoff8695 said:
wdcrob said:
Serious Q... has any RB ever shown what MJD has show thus far and not ended up being a starting #1 RB? Runs, catches, blocks, is a big play threat - all in the extreme. What on earth would keep him from getting the load at some point?
Click to expand...
After the last two seasons Maurice Jones Drew's talent is unquestionable IMO. However it's no great mystery as to why he isn't the #1 RB carrying 250+ times per season on his own team. Sharing the workload has a whole lot less to do with MJD's durablilty, size, or skills, than it has to do with being a teammate of one of the best RBs in the history of the NFL. That's the main reason why MJD is currently stuck in a RBBC.I know this is a fantasy football message board, but IMO people just aren't appreciating how good Fred Taylor's career has been. Of the 22 NFL RBs who have rushed for over 10,000 yards, Fred Taylor's 4.69 YPC is 3rd best, behind only Barry Sanders (4.99) and Tiki Barber(4.71). Fred is currently 16th on this list in terms of total career yards rushing and if he plays for a couple more seasons, then he should easily retire as a top 10 RB in terms of career rushing yards. That's pretty special, and it should come as no surprise that the Jaguars continue to give Taylor 200-250 carries per season. IMO Jacksonville would be foolish not to utilize the talents of both of their very talented RBs, much as they have so far.

However, Taylor is now 32 yrs. old, and MJD is only about to turn 23. The 'historical data dominator' reveals that only 21 times have RBs over the age of 32 managed 200+ rushes in a season since 1960. The most recent was Warrick Dunn in 2007 and that wasn't a particularly memorable performance. I won't predict doom and gloom for Taylor in '08, but undoubtedly sometime soon age has to start catching up with him.

So to answer your question, "What on earth would keep him from getting the load at some point?"

Unless Freddie can discover the fountain of youth or the Jaguars can replace him with another freakishly good RB, then very little will stand in MJD's way of becoming the #1 starting RB. And I would say sooner rather than later...
Click to expand...
:shrug: This was my point earlier. MJD isn't rotting behind Deshaun Foster, he's in line behind an HOF back. We're not far away from finding out what happens next, but in dynasty leagues it will be too late to make your move. Barring injury, his value should only go through the roof in the next season or two.

 
I agree in theory that 32 year old RBs have seen their best days go by them, but Taylor is coming off back-to-back career best seasons in terms of ypc.

At some point one would think that MJD would get a bigger role in the offense, but we have no idea if the Jags would bring in somwone else to split carries with MJD once Taylor hangs 'em up.

 
David Yudkin said:
I agree in theory that 32 year old RBs have seen their best days go by them, but Taylor is coming off back-to-back career best seasons in terms of ypc.

At some point one would think that MJD would get a bigger role in the offense, but we have no idea if the Jags would bring in somwone else to split carries with MJD once Taylor hangs 'em up.
Click to expand...
I think they probably WILL bring someone in, but Fred Taylors just don't grow on trees.
 
David Yudkin said:
I agree in theory that 32 year old RBs have seen their best days go by them, but Taylor is coming off back-to-back career best seasons in terms of ypc.

At some point one would think that MJD would get a bigger role in the offense, but we have no idea if the Jags would bring in somwone else to split carries with MJD once Taylor hangs 'em up.
Click to expand...
You correctly point out that Fred Taylor has enjoyed the best YPC of his career and subsequently impacted MJD's opportunities over the last two seasons. As a result Jones Drew received only 166 carries and 167 carries to Taylor's 231 in '06 and 223 in '07 respectively. Even so, MJD was still a huge part of the offense and was amazingly productive scoring 24 touchdowns (not including KO returns) and accumulating for over 1,700 rushing yards and over 800 receiving yards while playing 'second fiddle' to Taylor in terms of # of carries. Now I can't guarantee exactly when Taylor's production will fall off, but we can certainly agree that history is decidedly against him from here on out...

According to the 'historical data dominator' there have only been 21 instances since 1960 of a RB over the age of 32 carrying 200+ times in a single season. The most recent to do so was Warrick Dunn in 2007, and '07 certainly didn't live up to Dunn's prior levels of production. Also, only a handful of these elder RBs were able to break 4.0YPC, and none of them came anywhere near Freddie's impressive 5.39 YPC from last year. It's silly to expect Freddie to maintain this kind of production very much longer, and if Taylor's recent success is the main reason why MJD hasn't seen more rushing attempts, then I think we have to not only give MJD credit for what he has done with his fewer carries, but also be open to the idea that his workload will likely be increasing soon.

As Taylor succumbs to father time and MJD comes into the prime of his career (remember he isn't even 23 years old yet), I suggest it is far more logical if not inevitable that their # of carries will flip-flop over the next season or two. Furthermore, after Taylor retires, is cut, or his abilities signicantly decline, the Jags may move away from RBBC, particularly if they no longer have the personnel to justify a RBBC.

OTOH, If the Jags do continue to utilize two RBs similar to '06 & '07, then the most significant question, is which back receives the most carries. The most logical conclusion IMO is that MJD is going to become the primary ball carrier. I'ld gladly take 200-250 carries from MJD for fantasy purposes, but that's only a conservative or 'worse case scenario'. I think it's much more likely that MJD will be the most talented RB on the Jacksonville roster for the foreseeable future, and that he will actually be getting closer to 300+ carries per season.

As far as bringing in a replacement for Taylor, we must consider the business side of things. Jacksonville was very fortunate to draft MJD near the end of the 2nd round and sign him to a dirt cheap 4 year contract for $2.75 million (FA in 2010). OTOH, Fred Taylor is currently under a four year contract for $23 million (FA in 2011). I have to believe that re-signing MJD or re-working his contract will be a huge priority for the organization in the next couple seasons, and that the Jags are going to wind up paying him A LOT of money. That will certainly prohibit them from seeking out and paying a 2nd RB of Fred Taylor or MJD's caliber to come in and take or share the role of primary RB. So unless they hit the jackpot in the draft with another 1st round caliber talent falling to them for pennies, then it is highly unlikely that the Jags will be able to afford to bring in another talent worthy of taking/sharing primary ball carrier duties.

 
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