Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
I would rather have Watson than the others.
This is how I see it but I wouldn't invest too much in any of these guys because there is also a chance that they will bring in another FA veteran or rookie to compete.
Your assumption assumes that there is no value in having depth.
While I agree with the overall, the reason Watson has been a career backup has been that his first year was on a team with Stephen Davis (when he was a beast) sharing time with Ladell Betts, and then on a team with Rudi (and Cory Dillion for a while) so he hasn't gotten much time due to the quality of players he's running with. He also missed a year to injury. As you point out, he played very well last year. He's also played very well each year he's been in the league. He's just had some premier players in front of him, until now. At the age of 30 though, he's only a one or two year play for the Bengals. They do need to look to retool at RB.
No it doesn't, it assumes that depth is very easy and very cheap to acquire, while starter-caliber players are not, and that therefore even potentially starter-caliber players are drastically more valuable.
As a Watson Owner who thinks he could post RB2 numbers (PPR) next year if he had the job, this is clearly the best posting so far. Unless Rudi is hurt, it's his job.
How is Rudi "Used up"? He injury issues in 2007(hammy) which should not be a problem for him in 2008. He has been a very productive player every other year.
His aggregate numbers might tell a story of production, but his play on the field in 2006 was simply not very good. He was basically just Reuben Droughns v2.0 that year, and of course this last year he was terrible, injury notwithstanding.If you're into DVOA or other advanced metrics... in 2006, Rudi's DVOA ranked 32nd out of 53 RBs, while his backup (Watson) would have had the second highest DVOA in the league if he'd had enough carries to qualify. And in 2007, Rudi was catastrophic, finishing 53rd out of 56 in DVOA ahead only of Benson, Foster, and Reggie Bush. Watson finished last season ranked 15th in DVOA. Rudi's really starting to look like a guy who has carried the ball 1,000 times over a 3-year span... which is expected, since he HAS carried the ball 1,000 times over a 3-year span. Generally, once the legs start to go, RBs rarely get them back.
I think all you said speaks more to the fact that Rudi was never 100% in 2007. A healthy Rudi is way better than anyone else on that roster......and it's not close
I also fail to see the relevance of trotting out Watson as a comparison statistic for 2006. He had a grand total of 25 carries that year.
A healthy Rudi was the 32nd best RB in the NFL in 2006.
It is an incredibly small sample size, yes, but Watson's performance last season suggests to me that it cannot simply be dismissed. He performed well above average in both seasons, while Rudi performed well below average in both seasons.
Funny how guys like Turner get named to every team when they're a UFA. The Bungles are too cheap to sign Turner.
Always possible that Turner doesn't command what everyone around here thinks he's going to.
I am not sure what you mean by 32nd best RB(not sure what DVOA is) in 2006.......he was 7th in Rushing yards....8th in TD's.....4th in Rushing Att.......so where are you coming up with 32nd best?
Those first two statistics are pretty much wholly explained by that third statistic. If you finish 4th in rushing attempts, you're going to get a lot of yards and TDs. Johnson only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2006, which is not good (generally, 4.0 is the lower end of mediocre, and anything below that is "not good"). LenDale White this year averaged 3.6 ypc, which is the same neighborhood- would you call LenDale White a good RB?Anyway, DVOA is just a really fancy stat that incorporates a bunch of different elements, but basically measures how you do on each individual play and compares it to league average, then rewards RBs who do things that actually contribute to team success. If you run for 8 yards on 3rd and 10, that's hardly worth anything. If you run for 2 yards on 3rd and 1, on the other hand, that's worth a lot. Raw yardage or ypc doesn't take situation into consideration, but DVOA does, which makes it a superior stat.
I disagree. I think Watson showed he can do the job on all downs. Yes, he's particularly good on third downs and when having to share time with another back, you'll see him in there on third downs more but when he was given the opportunity last year, he was a very solid start.We don't even know that about Irons who was injured. This guy could be a bust. What we know is this, Watson can do the job. If you want to go with what you know, go with Watson. Irons is much more of a risk IMO. If risk=value play in your vocab, then so be it.
Perry sucks? That's incorrect.. injury prone.. but skill wise.. he's the best RB on the team. He also has better hands than their stud receivers.
yes
Because he went to a Big 10 school?
No, because he has little talent. I'll give you hands but as an NFL runningback he just isn't very good. I've been saying this for years now.
2004 he played 2 games, had zero TD and ranked 149 as RB in fantasy points.2005 He played 14 games, scored 2 Td's and did catch the ball 51 times and ranked 45 in fantasy points.2006- played 6 games, caught the ball 9 times and didn't score. Ranked 109 in fantasy points.First 3 years in the league, 2 out of 3 years he didn't score. His big year he scored 2 TD's and averages 7 games per year, which is less than half a season.Sucks is a very vague term. I think what you're saying is IF this guy could play a full season, he wouldn't suck. But you're using an IF. A lot of people could use an IF when talking about fantasy football. IF Michael Turner started an entire year, he might get 1500 yards.The bottom line IS what he has done the 3 years I posted above. For a running back, Lhucks is correct, it sucks. He has sucked since he's been in the NFL. Please make an argument for him not sucking and please don't use IF's, like IF he was healthy.
Hopefully he's learned that if there's a school in the Big 10 that can produce quality NFL players, it is Michigan. They will turn out at least another 3 quality NFL players again in this draft as well.
He's not saying he sucks because of his stats and fantasy numbers... he's saying he doesn't have talent. I think he does have talent. I can't say he's a stud, but you can't say he sucks either, we don't have the data to back it up because he's always been injured. My arguments for him not sucking are that he almost broke the bengals RB recieving record while backing up Rudi, and when he gets a few carries in, he's getting good yards on the attempt. He also makes a good Bengals O great. They haven't been the same on offense since 05. I just don't see how the verdict can be he sucks when we haven't seen him get his chance.
Tell that to Warrick Dunn and Tiki Barber. The not starting NFL running back size is a myth, if you're good you're good.And Irons is listed at 5'11" and 200 lbs, which is not #1 NFL running back size.
Don't you mean collossal busts?
Well, any RB in the NFL has some degree of talent, so maybe he didn't have his morning coffee yet. He started for the univeristy of Michigan and did a fine job, so he does have some talent.Anytime you catch the ball 51 times in a season as an RB, you at least deserve a prop. So, I give him a prop for that.However, looking at his inflated YPC. I don't give him a prop for that because he's obviously in on passing situationis, hence the receptions he got that year. Now, when you're in for a passing situation and the defense expects pass and instead, you do a draw play. Getting 5 or 7 yards on that draw play when it's 3rd and 13 means very little. What's worse.....he's not even a full time guy nor has even ever been a full time guy in the pros and he can't stay healthy.Can you imagine if the Bengals went into the season thinking this is the guy who we're gonna give the ball to 25 times a game. I don't know, it's a very muddled situation. Rudi Johnson was as steady as steady goes prior to this season in rushing the ball. He was never a great receiver but he made up for it by rushing yards and double digit td's.I think Watson was impressive last year. I think spending a later pick on him is worthwhile, especially in a PPR league.
No sir, every school has plenty of busts especially when you have schools where many players are drafted. Michigan has some of the best players in the NFL at their positions.
And Irons is listed at 5'11" and 200 lbs, which is not #1 NFL running back size.
