Here are some interesting comparisons between Torry Holt and Jennings/Holmes. I chose to compare these three as I think they are similar type WRs who rely on speed, hands, ball tracking abilty, and precise route running--none are overpowering or particularly physical ala TO, Marshall, Boldin. All are legitimate deep threats but also excel at inermediate routes and have the ability to take any ball to paydirt. Furthermore, despite their smaller statures, they are all legit red zone threats merely due to their other afforementioned talents. To further the similarities, Holt was in a great situation with a pass happy Rams offense, Holmes Steelers are moving toward a more pass happy philosophy and Big Ben is proving to be an exceptional QB, and Jennings, who admittedly has the most question marks at the QB postion, should have Favre for another couple years, and I see the transition to Rodgers being more seamless than many might think. I am not suggestng that either Holmes or Jennings possess the talent of Torry Holt, but the numbers are impressive nonetheless, so it is not farfetched to suggest they might be in his class.
Here are the trios stats in their second pro seasons (targets, receptions, yards, ypc, td's)
Holt: unavailable, 85, 1635 19.9 6
Holmes: 85, 52, 942, 18.1, 8
Jennings: 84, 53, 920, 17.4, 12
Both Holmes and Jennings posted insane, and also eerily similar, numbers given their limited targets. While many state that their point per target numbers will regress to some mean as their targets increase, defenses gameplan more for them and roll coverage their way, etc. I think this assumption is a bit premature given how limited the data is at this juncture and also given that they are both only two years in, so one would be hardpressed to argue that they're remotely close to peaking. We simply don't know what their true mean is.
For the sake of argument, let's assume they were each targeted 140 times in 2007, reallistic numbers based on the number of targets typical for Ward and Driver. Extrapolating Holmes and Jennings 2007 numbers based on a 140 target benchmark, we get:
Holt: ~130-140, 85, 1635 19.9 6
Holmes: 140, 85, 1552, 18.1, 12
Jennings: 140, 88, 1533, 17.4, 20
Wow, eerily similar once again when compared to Holt--the main outlier of course being the number of TDs. Of all the stats that are likely to regress, I would say that TDs are the most likely. They tend to be the most volatile stat, and while not inconceivable, I just don't see Greg Jennings ever posting a 20 TD season.
I'm not suggesting that these numbers are the be all end all and that in Holmes and Jennings we have two future Torry Holts. Nor am I suggesting, as previously stated, that I am presumptuous enough to assume that either possesses the raw talent of Holt. But what I am saying is that the notion is also not as far fetched as you might think.
Therefore, based on age, situation, proven talent, and tremendous room for growth, I would be hardpressed to pass on either of these players at this point.
My vote is for Holmes due to the more stable future of his QB situation.
at 4 WRs with 3 votes each and one with 2. This should continue to be close, as this tier is large.
