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Situation, or talent - what's more important? (1 Viewer)

What is a more important criteria for drafting rookie TE's, situation or talent?

  • Situation

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Talent

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • They're both equally important

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other - please describe

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    0
redman

redman

Footballguy
This poll is fairly simple - when you're assessing players for the purposes of a dynasty rookie draft, as between the player's overall team situation as drafted or as between the player's individual talent, which do you think is more important?

"Situation" should be defined as the entirety of the circumstances the player finds himself in after he's drafted and signed other than his own individual/personal attributes, including offensive scheme, placement on the depth chart, coaching quality, overall quality of team and teammates, weather, type of playing surface . . . everything else.

I have my own opinions about what these answers "should" be, but I'm going to reserve those for later, until after people have voted and added their own input, so as not to bias the results.

 
QB - Equally important. The most talented QB could sit for years behind a weak team or a solid starter ( or both ). Think Steve Young.

RB - Talent. Given the abrupt nature of a RB career, and the fact that RB appears to be the easiest transition from college to the pros, top talent RB will get their chance soonest.

WR - Equally important. Talent may get you on the field, but amazingly few WR are viable fantasy options early. The WR position is too dependant on the rest of the team for talent alone to make a difference ( See R. Moss in OAK )

TE - Talent. From a fantasy perspective, it appears that great pass catching TE will do reasonably well anywhere. Maybe the nature of the throws a QB has to make to use a TE effectively are simple enough that the conditions that make WR incredibly dependent on the OLine / QB play don't apply.

 
If we're talking dynasty leagues, the only position where situation is a huge factor for me is RB. A good RB in a bad situation will probably never be a great FF RB (McGahee). A good RB in a good situation can be a beast in FF (LJ). So when you have two RBs who are in the same ballpark in terms of talent, you should probably go for the guy with the best supporting cast.

That said, talent is far more important than situation in dynasty leagues. Talent tends to endure. Situations tend to fluctuate. So if you have a player who succeeds because he's talented, you can bet that he's probably going to continue succeeding. But if you have a player who succeeds because he's in an ideal situation, you can't be sure that he'll remain valuable since the situation can and probably will change.

You cannot predict a player's situation three years from now. You just can't. But you can generally say that a talented player is still going to be talented in three years. So your dynasty rankings should mostly reflect your opinion of the talent level of the various players.

 
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Road Warriors said:
QB - Equally important. The most talented QB could sit for years behind a weak team or a solid starter ( or both ). Think Steve Young.RB - Talent. Given the abrupt nature of a RB career, and the fact that RB appears to be the easiest transition from college to the pros, top talent RB will get their chance soonest.WR - Equally important. Talent may get you on the field, but amazingly few WR are viable fantasy options early. The WR position is too dependant on the rest of the team for talent alone to make a difference ( See R. Moss in OAK )TE - Talent. From a fantasy perspective, it appears that great pass catching TE will do reasonably well anywhere. Maybe the nature of the throws a QB has to make to use a TE effectively are simple enough that the conditions that make WR incredibly dependent on the OLine / QB play don't apply.
Click to expand...
I think Steve Young was more the situation.....at TB....he was horrible.....at SF with that WCO and rice/taylor/brent jones/watters......who would play bad?
 
I think people tend to underrate the importance of situation at the RB position (they also tend to read too much into the Combine, but that's another issue). 2 years ago, people in my draft thought I was insane for passing up DeAngelo Williams to grab Joseph Addai... I'm certainly not complaining now!

 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Road Warriors said:
QB - Equally important. The most talented QB could sit for years behind a weak team or a solid starter ( or both ). Think Steve Young.RB - Talent. Given the abrupt nature of a RB career, and the fact that RB appears to be the easiest transition from college to the pros, top talent RB will get their chance soonest.WR - Equally important. Talent may get you on the field, but amazingly few WR are viable fantasy options early. The WR position is too dependant on the rest of the team for talent alone to make a difference ( See R. Moss in OAK )TE - Talent. From a fantasy perspective, it appears that great pass catching TE will do reasonably well anywhere. Maybe the nature of the throws a QB has to make to use a TE effectively are simple enough that the conditions that make WR incredibly dependent on the OLine / QB play don't apply.
Click to expand...
I think Steve Young was more the situation.....at TB....he was horrible.....at SF with that WCO and rice/taylor/brent jones/watters......who would play bad?
Click to expand...
I used Young as an example of why I don't believe Talent alone at the QB is why you draft in dynasty. If you took Young in dynasty, did you hold him long enough to enjoy his great years? How long after he was drafted did he become a contributor? And this is a guy with HOF talent. Thats why I believe QB and WR are Talent/Situation equally important. In no case is talent not important, so situation is never the right answer to any of these, IMO. An average player is average, regardless of the situation he ends up in.
 
AKComic said:
I think people tend to underrate the importance of situation at the RB position (they also tend to read too much into the Combine, but that's another issue). 2 years ago, people in my draft thought I was insane for passing up DeAngelo Williams to grab Joseph Addai... I'm certainly not complaining now!
Click to expand...
But you're talking about the 3rd and 4th RBs taken, both 1st rounders, 3 spots apart. That is not much of a gap in talent, IMO.If equal talent, then situation is the tiebreaker.
 
Ok, here's my input. IMHO, in the passing game talent will eventually shine through. If you're a good passing QB, then even if you go to an extremely conservative team like Roethlisberger did with Pittsburgh, you're going to find a way to show your stuff. Good things will happen. If you're a poor QB in a good situation, though, circumstances will eventually expose you.

Ditto with WR. Good WR's find ways to show they're good. Andre Johnson was long considered a stud, even with David Carr throwing to him in a miserable offense. The fact that "system WR" is not really a term you ever hear used speaks volumes.

TE's are a bit more of a mix. Physical talent is obviously huge. It's no accident that Antonio Gates is a stud. OTOH, I think that there are a lot of very talented TE's around the league who are grossly underutilized. Is there really a huge difference in talent between Ben Watson and Chris Cooley? Are there really 20 or so TE's in the league who are more talented than Marcedes Lewis? The nature of the position as generally a secondary passing option means that the TE's teammates and schemes are hugely important in determining his fantasy production. Good luck to you if your TE plays for Mike Martz, or has very good WR corps that he's competing with for passes, or worse blocking for.

RB's IMHO are the exception. Situation is huge. In 2005, was Shaun Alexander really the best RB in the league, or did he have an offense that finally gelled with a tremendously strong o-line, and a scheme that kept him in the game near the goalline? Was Rudi Johnson really the ~7th best RB in the league for four consecutive years, from 2003-06, or was he just a guy who remained healthy in a high powered offense that could create holes for him and allow him to pile up yards? IMHO Joseph Addai was maybe the 4th best RB drafted in 2006 in terms of talent, and yet he's clearly #1 from that class in terms of value.

 
redman said:
Ditto with WR. Good WR's find ways to show they're good. Andre Johnson was long considered a stud, even with David Carr throwing to him in a miserable offense. The fact that "system WR" is not really a term you ever hear used speaks volumes.
Click to expand...
Considered. Yet he usually underperformed his perceived value.ETA: other than that, I agree with everything you wrote.

 
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