Chase Stuart
Footballguy
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=494
Six years ago, Doug wrote this article on rookie running backs and wide receivers. For those that can’t be bothered to click the link, here’s a short recap:
In 2002, Antonio Bryant was the number one rookie WR, but Javon Walker has since passed him. In ‘03, Anquan Boldin was number one, and he still holds that title. Andre Johnson may be coming on strong, though, so I wouldn’t crown Boldin just yet. In 2004, Michael Clayton was the top rookie, but Larry Fitzgerald has since blown past him. Three years ago, Reggie Brown was the top rookie WR, but Braylon Edwards has already displaced him from the top spot. Two years ago? Marques Colston was the main man, and he’s still doing well, but Brandon Marshall should give him a run for his money. We should probably keep an eye on Greg Jennings and Santonio Holmes, too. Dwayne Bowe was the top WR among the rookies last year, but no one would be surprised to see the runner up (or maybe the guy playing with Mr. Manning) pass him before their careers end . Here’s a full list of how the top rookie WRs each year, measured by fantasy points, did over their careers (measured by career VBD). The last column shows their rank in their rookie class.
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr carvbdrkMarques Colston 105 wr 152 2006 1Reggie Brown 22 wr 82 2005 3Michael Clayton 37 wr 164 2004 5Anquan Boldin 209 wr 189 2003 1Antonio Bryant 9 wr 113 2002 5Chris Chambers 148 wr 129 2001 6Peter Warrick 34 wr 110 2000 5Kevin Johnson 60 wr 146 1999 6Randy Moss 844 wr 234 1998 1Rae Carruth 0 wr 81 1997 6Terry Glenn 158 wr 153 1996 8Joey Galloway 333 wr 167 1995 2Darnay Scott 44 wr 130 1994 5James Jett 38 wr 95 1993 6Arthur Marshall 0 wr 69 1992 6Lawrence Dawsey 3 wr 107 1991 12Fred Barnett 111 wr 121 1990 4Hart Lee Dykes 1 wr 110 1989 5Brian Blades 91 wr 119 1988 8Ricky Nattiel 0 wr 76 1987 13Bill Brooks 105 wr 162 1986 4Eddie Brown 165 wr 155 1985 6Louis Lipps 216 wr 153 1984 2Willie Gault 103 wr 135 1983 4Charlie Brown 212 wr 117 1982 3Cris Collinsworth 269 wr 149 1981 1Art Monk 317 wr 98 1980 1Jerry Butler 71 wr 109 1979 6John Jefferson 311 wr 179 1978 3Wesley Walker 334 wr 95 1977 2Sammy White 296 wr 150 1976 2Alfred Jenkins 271 wr 113 1975 1Nat Moore 242 wr 76 1974 3Isaac Curtis 300 wr 137 1973 1Mike Siani 49 wr 80 1972 4Randy Vataha 136 wr 141 1971 4Ron Shanklin 153 wr 93 1970 4As Doug wrote in his first post, zero rookie WRs that led their class in fantasy points ended up accumulating the most career VBD, from 1982-1997. Randy Moss broke that streak, and then it started right back up again. Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston might be another one to beat the odds, but those races are still too close to call. A lot of the top rookies don’t even end up being in the top three of their class, so be sure to be careful about rookie WRs that excel.So where do the top rookie WRs from the class start out? Good question.
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr rookyr rankMarques Colston 105 wr 152 2006 1Braylon Edwards 117 wr 69 2005 4Larry Fitzgerald 186 wr 127 2004 4Anquan Boldin 209 wr 189 2003 1Javon Walker 162 wr 39 2002 12Chad Johnson 404 wr 39 2001 7Plaxico Burress 213 wr 27 2000 7Torry Holt 559 wr 117 1999 2Randy Moss 844 wr 234 1998 1Derrick Mason 194 wr 18 1997 8Marvin Harrison 809 wr 133 1996 3Rod Smith 398 wr 21 1995 13Isaac Bruce 490 wr 45 1994 7Curtis Conway 149 wr 40 1993 8Jimmy Smith 401 wr 0 1992 16Herman Moore 394 wr 14 1991 14Terance Mathis 211 wr 25 1990 10Andre Rison 414 wr 108 1989 2Tim Brown 535 wr 114 1988 2Cris Carter 624 wr 20 1987 14Ernest Givins 257 wr 145 1986 2Jerry Rice 1607 wr 119 1985 4Irving Fryar 278 wr 21 1984 10Mark Clayton 491 wr 25 1983 16Mike Quick 388 wr 22 1982 9Cris Collinsworth 269 wr 149 1981 1Art Monk 317 wr 98 1980 1Roy Green 336 wr 2 1979 13James Lofton 611 wr 119 1978 2Stanley Morgan 345 wr 63 1977 2Steve Largent 759 wr 93 1976 2Alfred Jenkins 271 wr 113 1975 1John Stallworth 402 wr 32 1974 11Isaac Curtis 300 wr 137 1973 1Cliff Branch 487 wr 5 1972 13Harold Carmichael 522 wr 29 1971 8Ken Burrough 291 wr 32 1970 8As you can see, from 1990-2002, ten of the thirteen receivers who would go on to have the highest career VBD would rank outside of the top six in their rookie years. This should serve as a good reminder not to give up on any rookie receiver, even if he does virtually nothing his first season.This, of course, is bad news for fans of Dwayne Bowe. But what about fans of Adrian Peterson?
When Doug ran the study, he noted that every top rookie running back from ‘92 to ‘99 ended up with the most career VBD. Since then, Corey Dillon (class of ‘97) was passed by Tiki Barber and Priest Holmes, and Fred Taylor (class of ‘98) was passed by Ahman Green. Mike Anderson (class of ‘00) ended up third that year in career value, but LaDainian Tomlinson (class of ‘01) is a lock to end up as the career VBD leader from his class. Clinton Portis (’02) should continue that tradition, although the next four RBs — Dom (Davis) Williams, Willis McGahee, Cadillac Williams and Maurice Jones-Drew — all are second or third in career VBD after being the top rookie.
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr carvbdrkMaurice Jones-Drew 102 rb 228 2006 2Cadillac Williams 19 rb 162 2005 3Willis McGahee 136 rb 208 2004 3Domanick Williams 173 rb 186 2003 2Clinton Portis 515 rb 289 2002 1LaDainian Tomlinson 1185 rb 220 2001 1Mike Anderson 154 rb 256 2000 3Edgerrin James 731 rb 316 1999 1Fred Taylor 441 rb 266 1998 2Corey Dillon 478 rb 199 1997 3Eddie George 556 rb 203 1996 1Curtis Martin 832 rb 265 1995 1Marshall Faulk 1164 rb 252 1994 1Jerome Bettis 434 rb 209 1993 1Ricky Watters 823 rb 208 1992 1Leonard Russell 90 rb 128 1991 3Emmitt Smith 1332 rb 183 1990 1Barry Sanders 1235 rb 259 1989 1Ickey Woods 77 rb 217 1988 4Troy Stradford 45 rb 150 1987 5Herschel Walker 630 rb 241 1986 1Kevin Mack 151 rb 200 1985 1Greg Bell 304 rb 186 1984 2Eric Dickerson 887 rb 341 1983 1Marcus Allen 884 rb 196 1982 1George Rogers 209 rb 258 1981 4Billy Sims 407 rb 288 1980 1Ottis Anderson 582 rb 251 1979 1Earl Campbell 522 rb 228 1978 1Tony Dorsett 705 rb 208 1977 1Tony Galbreath 82 rb 147 1976 4Mike Thomas 176 rb 182 1975 2Don Woods 122 rb 216 1974 3Boobie Clark 75 rb 182 1973 7Franco Harris 616 rb 190 1972 1Vic Washington 40 rb 155 1971 4Duane Thomas 75 rb 118 1970 3From 1989-2006, ten of the eighteen top rookie RBs ended up with the most career VBD. None of them ended up outside of the top three, although Cadillac will probably fall to four (behind Marion Barber, Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs) and Willis McGahee could be in trouble (Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Earnest Graham, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones). Still, it seems like Adrian Peterson should have no trouble being one of the top three running backs from his draft class. Extra! Extra! Where can you get great insight like that?Finally, here’s a list of all the top running backs (measured by career VBD) from each class, and how they ranked as rookies:
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr rookyr rankJoseph Addai 125 rb 189 2006 2Frank Gore 165 rb 92 2005 5Steven Jackson 254 rb 110 2004 4Larry Johnson 365 rb 15 2003 14Clinton Portis 515 rb 289 2002 1LaDainian Tomlinson 1185 rb 220 2001 1Shaun Alexander 743 rb 47 2000 9Edgerrin James 731 rb 316 1999 1Ahman Green 547 rb 27 1998 11Priest Holmes 675 rb 0 1997 21Eddie George 556 rb 203 1996 1Curtis Martin 832 rb 265 1995 1Marshall Faulk 1164 rb 252 1994 1Jerome Bettis 434 rb 209 1993 1Ricky Watters 823 rb 208 1992 1Terry Allen 448 rb 79 1991 3Emmitt Smith 1332 rb 183 1990 1Barry Sanders 1235 rb 259 1989 1Thurman Thomas 856 rb 121 1988 3Christian Okoye 143 rb 101 1987 3Herschel Walker 630 rb 241 1986 1Kevin Mack 151 rb 200 1985 1Earnest Byner 334 rb 66 1984 7Eric Dickerson 887 rb 341 1983 1Marcus Allen 884 rb 196 1982 1James Brooks 387 rb 121 1981 5Billy Sims 407 rb 288 1980 1Ottis Anderson 582 rb 251 1979 1Earl Campbell 522 rb 228 1978 1Tony Dorsett 705 rb 208 1977 1Chuck Muncie 389 rb 105 1976 5Walter Payton 1268 rb 130 1975 2Delvin Williams 206 rb 39 1974 16Chuck Foreman 648 rb 152 1973 2Franco Harris 616 rb 190 1972 1John Riggins 461 rb 118 1971 4Art Malone 92 rb 23 1970 131997 was kind of an odd year, as Priest Holmes (21st) and Tiki Barber (5th) both had less than stellar rookie years, but went on to finish 14th and 16th in RB career VBD, respectively. But consider that from ‘89 to ‘02, ten of the fourteen rookie RBs that excelled the most as rookies ended up with the best careers. That success rate is pretty startling, in light of the complete chaos apparently going on at wide receiver.Addai, Gore and Jackson and Johnson may be starting a new trend, as none of them ranked first as rookies. Of the top rookie RBs in those years, only MJD has a good chance of regaining his crown. If I had to guess, though, I’d say that Peterson is going to make sure this trend doesn’t reach five.
Finally, here’s how the top 25 WRs and RBs — as measured by career VBD — ranked in their class as rookies.
Sixteen of the top 25 running backs to enter the league since the merger were the top players in their class in their rookie season. Amazingly enough, only one of the top 25 WRs was the top man after his first season, and fourteen of them weren’t even among the five most productive rookies in their class.
Six years ago, Doug wrote this article on rookie running backs and wide receivers. For those that can’t be bothered to click the link, here’s a short recap:
What’s the Chris Chambers comment?
So in the summer of 2002, Doug wrote that the best rookie RB is usually the best RB from his class when he retires, whereas the best rookie WR is almost never the best WR from his class when he retires. Is that still true today?For those not familiar with fantasy football, VBD is a tool used to measure the real value of a fantasy football player, and it rewards dominant performances. More information on VBD, including how it’s calculated, can be found at that link. For our purposes, it’s a rough but decent proxy for career value.
In 2002, Antonio Bryant was the number one rookie WR, but Javon Walker has since passed him. In ‘03, Anquan Boldin was number one, and he still holds that title. Andre Johnson may be coming on strong, though, so I wouldn’t crown Boldin just yet. In 2004, Michael Clayton was the top rookie, but Larry Fitzgerald has since blown past him. Three years ago, Reggie Brown was the top rookie WR, but Braylon Edwards has already displaced him from the top spot. Two years ago? Marques Colston was the main man, and he’s still doing well, but Brandon Marshall should give him a run for his money. We should probably keep an eye on Greg Jennings and Santonio Holmes, too. Dwayne Bowe was the top WR among the rookies last year, but no one would be surprised to see the runner up (or maybe the guy playing with Mr. Manning) pass him before their careers end . Here’s a full list of how the top rookie WRs each year, measured by fantasy points, did over their careers (measured by career VBD). The last column shows their rank in their rookie class.
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr carvbdrkMarques Colston 105 wr 152 2006 1Reggie Brown 22 wr 82 2005 3Michael Clayton 37 wr 164 2004 5Anquan Boldin 209 wr 189 2003 1Antonio Bryant 9 wr 113 2002 5Chris Chambers 148 wr 129 2001 6Peter Warrick 34 wr 110 2000 5Kevin Johnson 60 wr 146 1999 6Randy Moss 844 wr 234 1998 1Rae Carruth 0 wr 81 1997 6Terry Glenn 158 wr 153 1996 8Joey Galloway 333 wr 167 1995 2Darnay Scott 44 wr 130 1994 5James Jett 38 wr 95 1993 6Arthur Marshall 0 wr 69 1992 6Lawrence Dawsey 3 wr 107 1991 12Fred Barnett 111 wr 121 1990 4Hart Lee Dykes 1 wr 110 1989 5Brian Blades 91 wr 119 1988 8Ricky Nattiel 0 wr 76 1987 13Bill Brooks 105 wr 162 1986 4Eddie Brown 165 wr 155 1985 6Louis Lipps 216 wr 153 1984 2Willie Gault 103 wr 135 1983 4Charlie Brown 212 wr 117 1982 3Cris Collinsworth 269 wr 149 1981 1Art Monk 317 wr 98 1980 1Jerry Butler 71 wr 109 1979 6John Jefferson 311 wr 179 1978 3Wesley Walker 334 wr 95 1977 2Sammy White 296 wr 150 1976 2Alfred Jenkins 271 wr 113 1975 1Nat Moore 242 wr 76 1974 3Isaac Curtis 300 wr 137 1973 1Mike Siani 49 wr 80 1972 4Randy Vataha 136 wr 141 1971 4Ron Shanklin 153 wr 93 1970 4As Doug wrote in his first post, zero rookie WRs that led their class in fantasy points ended up accumulating the most career VBD, from 1982-1997. Randy Moss broke that streak, and then it started right back up again. Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston might be another one to beat the odds, but those races are still too close to call. A lot of the top rookies don’t even end up being in the top three of their class, so be sure to be careful about rookie WRs that excel.So where do the top rookie WRs from the class start out? Good question.
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr rookyr rankMarques Colston 105 wr 152 2006 1Braylon Edwards 117 wr 69 2005 4Larry Fitzgerald 186 wr 127 2004 4Anquan Boldin 209 wr 189 2003 1Javon Walker 162 wr 39 2002 12Chad Johnson 404 wr 39 2001 7Plaxico Burress 213 wr 27 2000 7Torry Holt 559 wr 117 1999 2Randy Moss 844 wr 234 1998 1Derrick Mason 194 wr 18 1997 8Marvin Harrison 809 wr 133 1996 3Rod Smith 398 wr 21 1995 13Isaac Bruce 490 wr 45 1994 7Curtis Conway 149 wr 40 1993 8Jimmy Smith 401 wr 0 1992 16Herman Moore 394 wr 14 1991 14Terance Mathis 211 wr 25 1990 10Andre Rison 414 wr 108 1989 2Tim Brown 535 wr 114 1988 2Cris Carter 624 wr 20 1987 14Ernest Givins 257 wr 145 1986 2Jerry Rice 1607 wr 119 1985 4Irving Fryar 278 wr 21 1984 10Mark Clayton 491 wr 25 1983 16Mike Quick 388 wr 22 1982 9Cris Collinsworth 269 wr 149 1981 1Art Monk 317 wr 98 1980 1Roy Green 336 wr 2 1979 13James Lofton 611 wr 119 1978 2Stanley Morgan 345 wr 63 1977 2Steve Largent 759 wr 93 1976 2Alfred Jenkins 271 wr 113 1975 1John Stallworth 402 wr 32 1974 11Isaac Curtis 300 wr 137 1973 1Cliff Branch 487 wr 5 1972 13Harold Carmichael 522 wr 29 1971 8Ken Burrough 291 wr 32 1970 8As you can see, from 1990-2002, ten of the thirteen receivers who would go on to have the highest career VBD would rank outside of the top six in their rookie years. This should serve as a good reminder not to give up on any rookie receiver, even if he does virtually nothing his first season.This, of course, is bad news for fans of Dwayne Bowe. But what about fans of Adrian Peterson?
When Doug ran the study, he noted that every top rookie running back from ‘92 to ‘99 ended up with the most career VBD. Since then, Corey Dillon (class of ‘97) was passed by Tiki Barber and Priest Holmes, and Fred Taylor (class of ‘98) was passed by Ahman Green. Mike Anderson (class of ‘00) ended up third that year in career value, but LaDainian Tomlinson (class of ‘01) is a lock to end up as the career VBD leader from his class. Clinton Portis (’02) should continue that tradition, although the next four RBs — Dom (Davis) Williams, Willis McGahee, Cadillac Williams and Maurice Jones-Drew — all are second or third in career VBD after being the top rookie.
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr carvbdrkMaurice Jones-Drew 102 rb 228 2006 2Cadillac Williams 19 rb 162 2005 3Willis McGahee 136 rb 208 2004 3Domanick Williams 173 rb 186 2003 2Clinton Portis 515 rb 289 2002 1LaDainian Tomlinson 1185 rb 220 2001 1Mike Anderson 154 rb 256 2000 3Edgerrin James 731 rb 316 1999 1Fred Taylor 441 rb 266 1998 2Corey Dillon 478 rb 199 1997 3Eddie George 556 rb 203 1996 1Curtis Martin 832 rb 265 1995 1Marshall Faulk 1164 rb 252 1994 1Jerome Bettis 434 rb 209 1993 1Ricky Watters 823 rb 208 1992 1Leonard Russell 90 rb 128 1991 3Emmitt Smith 1332 rb 183 1990 1Barry Sanders 1235 rb 259 1989 1Ickey Woods 77 rb 217 1988 4Troy Stradford 45 rb 150 1987 5Herschel Walker 630 rb 241 1986 1Kevin Mack 151 rb 200 1985 1Greg Bell 304 rb 186 1984 2Eric Dickerson 887 rb 341 1983 1Marcus Allen 884 rb 196 1982 1George Rogers 209 rb 258 1981 4Billy Sims 407 rb 288 1980 1Ottis Anderson 582 rb 251 1979 1Earl Campbell 522 rb 228 1978 1Tony Dorsett 705 rb 208 1977 1Tony Galbreath 82 rb 147 1976 4Mike Thomas 176 rb 182 1975 2Don Woods 122 rb 216 1974 3Boobie Clark 75 rb 182 1973 7Franco Harris 616 rb 190 1972 1Vic Washington 40 rb 155 1971 4Duane Thomas 75 rb 118 1970 3From 1989-2006, ten of the eighteen top rookie RBs ended up with the most career VBD. None of them ended up outside of the top three, although Cadillac will probably fall to four (behind Marion Barber, Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs) and Willis McGahee could be in trouble (Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Earnest Graham, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones). Still, it seems like Adrian Peterson should have no trouble being one of the top three running backs from his draft class. Extra! Extra! Where can you get great insight like that?Finally, here’s a list of all the top running backs (measured by career VBD) from each class, and how they ranked as rookies:
name carvbd pos rookfp rookyr rookyr rankJoseph Addai 125 rb 189 2006 2Frank Gore 165 rb 92 2005 5Steven Jackson 254 rb 110 2004 4Larry Johnson 365 rb 15 2003 14Clinton Portis 515 rb 289 2002 1LaDainian Tomlinson 1185 rb 220 2001 1Shaun Alexander 743 rb 47 2000 9Edgerrin James 731 rb 316 1999 1Ahman Green 547 rb 27 1998 11Priest Holmes 675 rb 0 1997 21Eddie George 556 rb 203 1996 1Curtis Martin 832 rb 265 1995 1Marshall Faulk 1164 rb 252 1994 1Jerome Bettis 434 rb 209 1993 1Ricky Watters 823 rb 208 1992 1Terry Allen 448 rb 79 1991 3Emmitt Smith 1332 rb 183 1990 1Barry Sanders 1235 rb 259 1989 1Thurman Thomas 856 rb 121 1988 3Christian Okoye 143 rb 101 1987 3Herschel Walker 630 rb 241 1986 1Kevin Mack 151 rb 200 1985 1Earnest Byner 334 rb 66 1984 7Eric Dickerson 887 rb 341 1983 1Marcus Allen 884 rb 196 1982 1James Brooks 387 rb 121 1981 5Billy Sims 407 rb 288 1980 1Ottis Anderson 582 rb 251 1979 1Earl Campbell 522 rb 228 1978 1Tony Dorsett 705 rb 208 1977 1Chuck Muncie 389 rb 105 1976 5Walter Payton 1268 rb 130 1975 2Delvin Williams 206 rb 39 1974 16Chuck Foreman 648 rb 152 1973 2Franco Harris 616 rb 190 1972 1John Riggins 461 rb 118 1971 4Art Malone 92 rb 23 1970 131997 was kind of an odd year, as Priest Holmes (21st) and Tiki Barber (5th) both had less than stellar rookie years, but went on to finish 14th and 16th in RB career VBD, respectively. But consider that from ‘89 to ‘02, ten of the fourteen rookie RBs that excelled the most as rookies ended up with the best careers. That success rate is pretty startling, in light of the complete chaos apparently going on at wide receiver.Addai, Gore and Jackson and Johnson may be starting a new trend, as none of them ranked first as rookies. Of the top rookie RBs in those years, only MJD has a good chance of regaining his crown. If I had to guess, though, I’d say that Peterson is going to make sure this trend doesn’t reach five.
Finally, here’s how the top 25 WRs and RBs — as measured by career VBD — ranked in their class as rookies.
Code:
name carvbd rookfp rookyr rkyrrk carvbdrkEmmitt Smith 1332 183 1990 1 1Walter Payton 1268 130 1975 2 1Barry Sanders 1235 259 1989 1 1LaDainian Tomlinson 1185 220 2001 1 1Marshall Faulk 1164 252 1994 1 1Eric Dickerson 887 341 1983 1 1Marcus Allen 884 196 1982 1 1Thurman Thomas 856 121 1988 3 1Curtis Martin 832 265 1995 1 1Ricky Watters 823 208 1992 1 1Shaun Alexander 743 47 2000 9 1Edgerrin James 731 316 1999 1 1Tony Dorsett 705 208 1977 1 1Priest Holmes 675 0 1997 21 1Chuck Foreman 648 152 1973 2 1Tiki Barber 642 105 1997 5 2Herschel Walker 630 241 1986 1 1Franco Harris 616 190 1972 1 1Terrell Davis 600 196 1995 2 2Ottis Anderson 582 251 1979 1 1Eddie George 556 203 1996 1 1Roger Craig 549 187 1983 3 2Ahman Green 547 27 1998 11 1Earl Campbell 522 228 1978 1 1Clinton Portis 515 289 2002 1 1
Code:
name carvbd rookfp rookyr rkyrrk carvbdrkJerry Rice 1607 119 1985 4 1Randy Moss 844 234 1998 1 1Marvin Harrison 809 133 1996 3 1Steve Largent 759 93 1976 2 1Terrell Owens 758 76 1996 6 2Cris Carter 624 20 1987 14 1James Lofton 611 119 1978 2 1Torry Holt 559 117 1999 2 1Tim Brown 535 114 1988 2 1Harold Carmichael 522 29 1971 8 1Sterling Sharpe 496 85 1988 5 2Mark Clayton 491 25 1983 16 1Isaac Bruce 490 45 1994 7 1Cliff Branch 487 5 1972 13 1Michael Irvin 462 96 1988 3 3Wes Chandler 432 60 1978 6 2Gary Clark 425 124 1985 3 2Andre Rison 414 108 1989 2 1Andre Reed 410 94 1985 7 3Chad Johnson 404 39 2001 7 1John Stallworth 402 32 1974 11 1Jimmy Smith 401 0 1992 16 1Rod Smith 398 21 1995 13 1Herman Moore 394 14 1991 14 1Mike Quick 388 22 1982 9 1
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