Olsen - Break out in year two? (1 Viewer)

I acquired Olsen last year in a dynasty and have to say...I'm excited that he may be featured prominently in the pass game this year with both Muhammad and Berrian gone.

Olsen had 39/391/2 on 66 targets in 14 games last year (he sat out the first 2 games after injuring a knee in the last game of the preseason). As a rookie he had 66 targets, an average of 4.7 a game, and caught 59% of them. This, to me, is excellent production as a rookie, and it was done with one of the messier QB situations in the league.

Current Chicago WR corps:

Mark Bradley

Devin Hester

Rashied Davis (RFA)

Mike Hass

Brandon Rideau



Unless something gives before the start of the season, this team is going to be very limited offensively. Benson and A. Peterson scare no one, especially if defenses can stack the box against these poor WR's. With few pass options on the field, I could see Olsen's targets increase from 4.7 to at least 6 a game (96 for the year). If he catches the same % of his targets, he would get 56 catches. Hopefully, his improvement from year 1 to year 2 will leave his the recipient of 60+ catches.

Off the cuff, I could see Olsen leading the Bears in receptions in 2008, not that this necessitates his catching a huge number of passes.

Why not projections for March 2: 65 catches, 700 yards, 5 TD. In ppr leagues, that would be 165 points, 100 points in standard scoring leagues. Not earth shattering, but it would have placed him 7th in both ppr and standard leagues.

He's 22 years old, a first round pick, and poised, IMO, for a sizable jump into a worthwhile starting option at TE this year. And still, in the FBG dynasty TE poll, we are voting for 10th. Olsen will currently (if results hold) finish behind:

1) Antonio Gates

2) Jason Witten

3) Kellen Winslow

4) Chris Cooley

5) V Davis

6) Dallas Clark

7) Todd Heap

8) Tony Gonzalez

9) Jeremy Shockey

10) Heath Miller

11) Tony Sheffler

12) Owen Daniels

13) Ben Watson

I don't know who he's bumping, but if he's healthy, I can't see him finishing outside the top 12 with his talent and the Bears lack of options to pass the ball to. And, at 22, he's the youngest TE on the list. Am I missing something?

What are your thoughts on Olsen 2008 and beyond?

it would help if the offense weren't anemic.

Anemic at best. But still, the Vikings completed the fewest passes in 2007 (249 total), and Bobby Wade caught 54 passes. If it would be fair, project the top Bears receiver in 2008 at the same quantity - 54 catches. That would only bump Olsen down 10 from where I was presupposing in the OP. Still easily top 10 if it holds.

Might be the next big thing. Might bust. the Bears O scares me. But I see potential...

They just extended Desmond Clark also.

You ask: Someones has to catch the ball in Chicago, right?

I answer: No - as somebody has to be able to THROW the ball first. They lost two starting offensive linemen and have done nothing to replace them even though Maurice Williams and Jake Scott are competent upgrades over who they cut or let walk (Fred Miller and Ruben Brown)

If the O-Line replacements are upgrades, Grossman (or whoever) should have more time to throw, right? With the top two options in the passing game moving on, someone has to take those roles.

Are they THAT sold on Hester as a full time WR? Olsen (last years first who showed promise) must be in line for an exanded role.

i have Olsen and am looking for a big year out of him. I think he'll get more TDs this year as he was targeted alot in the end zone. Its just too bad so many balls were uncatchable

As an Olsen owner, I like the thought but it was very apparent last year that he was much more a factor when Griese was the QB vs when Grossman was the QB.

Olsen is an absolute monster.

If only he played on an NFL caliber offense. If that were to happen, I could see him as a top 5 TE.

BuckeyeArt said:

As an Olsen owner, I like the thought but it was very apparent last year that he was much more a factor when Griese was the QB vs when Grossman was the QB.

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It was. Grossman was in love with the deep pass to Berrian. That's gone now.

zadok said:

They just extended Desmond Clark also.

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Exactly. If I were an Olsen owner, I wouldn't like that they resigned Desmond Clark and let blocking TE John Gilmore go.

Restricted said:

zadok said:

They just extended Desmond Clark also.

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Exactly. If I were an Olsen owner, I wouldn't like that they resigned Desmond Clark and let blocking TE John Gilmore go.

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Letting go of Gilmore is a good thing for Olsen. Olsen can't block so Clark will be doing that. Downside is that Clark may be on the field more. Of course who are the WR's again? maybe Olsen will be lining up as a WR more this year.

I see Olsen getting used like Clark was in Indy. I think he'll get alot of chances lined up as a WR (pleeeeeease) and in 2 TE formations with Desmond doing more blocking.

No one catches the ball much in Chicago

zadok said:

They just extended Desmond Clark also.

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Quietly re-signed him. I think, once again, Clark is going to be a shark fantasy pick as your TE backup late in redrafts.

The more time Rex has, the better the throws will be.

Chicago receiving will hinge on that.

Fix the OLine.

If the Safety position isn't fixed, big plays could put the Bears down and needing to throw.

Hester is an unknown, but will be able to stretch the field and perhaps benifit from that $@&^ it I'm going deep ball.

Bradley and Davis have done ok with their opportunities between injuries.

Hass is a sleeper possibility.

Clark will probably be the same.

Hester stretching the field opening some field and WRs not much better at receiving could give Olsen some upside, but I think there is quite a bit of risk picking which receiver will breakout for Chicago. Olsen, Bradley, Hester? Davis or Hass? None if that OLine tanks.

Olsen & Clark are the only Skill players on the Bears Offense that could go to some other team and start. Think about that ...

So who is even going to be the starting WR's in Chicago? They have to bring someone else in, right?

I used to think Bradley could be decent in the NFL but he never seemed to get it. Could this be the year for him?

I don't think anyone can actually think Hester can come in and be a starter on that offense from day one. So who could it be?

I think Olsen is a nice future play, but I wouldn't count on him

to produce legit FF numbers for the next season, maybe 2.

The Desmond Clark signing really surprised me.

I think Olson will be serviceable at best, with a ton of downside. Here's why-

-Bears havent fixed their o-line, so its immaterial whether Grossman would play better if they did.

-Grossman doesnt check down, he heaves the ball. With Hester out there i doubt he will resist it very often.

-Desmond Clark will steal targets. I can see a lot of 2 TE sets with this cast of characters.

-Marty Booker is a better possession target than Olson is when they are throwing to a spot.

-The Bears arent going to see much red zone action, which is where TEs make their fantasy living.