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Michael Turner vs Marion Barber (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Righetti
- Start date
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Turner is the better back, but Barber is in a much better situation.
Righetti
Footballguy
to give some context
MB3
45 games
477 carries
2167 yards
4.54 ypc
29 TD's
85 receptions
593 yards
6.98 YPR
4 receiving TD's
6 lost fumbles
MBT
59 games
228 carries
1257 yards
5.51 YPC
6 TD's
11 receptions
71 yards
6.45 YPR
0 receiving TD's
2 fumbles lost
MB3
45 games
477 carries
2167 yards
4.54 ypc
29 TD's
85 receptions
593 yards
6.98 YPR
4 receiving TD's
6 lost fumbles
MBT
59 games
228 carries
1257 yards
5.51 YPC
6 TD's
11 receptions
71 yards
6.45 YPR
0 receiving TD's
2 fumbles lost
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Otis
Footballguy
This is probably right. However, the rule in dynasty has always seemed to be pick the guy with the most talent because the cream will eventually rise to the top. I love both of these guys, but I'm a huge Turner believer.
gianmarco
Footballguy
In most cases, you're right that talent trumps situation. However, given what these 2 have to offer and the fact that Turner just landed a starting job with a long-term contract and Barber may be doing the same, you can't ignore situations with these 2. Aside from the fact that I think the talent level is similar, if not favoring Barber, but the situation seems so overwhelming to me that it's easily Barber. No way I would draft Turner in a startup dynasty if Barber were on the board.
I suspect a much higher percentage of MB3's touches were goal line carries. (Tomlinson got the GL carries in San Diego.)There's no question that MB3 is great around the goal line, though. He's one of the more determined runners in the league.
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
Not a very useful statistic for comparing these two. Barber was THE goal line option in Dallas. Turner was a backup to one of the best TD runners all time in the league -- I'll bet that most of Turner's TDs were long runs he broke from outside the red zone.
Otis
Footballguy
Here's what I think is the most useful statistic for comparing these two runners. TD's and catches are situation- and use-dependent, and thus far in their careers they have been used in very different ways. However, if you give two guys handoffs a few hundred times and one comes out 1 YPC higher than the other, that may be saying something (or it may not be, but at least I think it's fairer ground for comparison).
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switz
Footballguy
with the caveat "at this point" - we don't know how the Falcons will look come opening day, nor who will be the RBs in Dallas next season.If Dal drafts McFadden, MB#s value will take a nosedive.If ATL assembles a decent OL and has an OK QB, Turner will still be solid.RB is one of the easiest positions from which to produce at a high level despite surrounding talent, outside of OL.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
It's difficult to judge Turner because he's had so few chances. He's only had 7 goal line attempts in his career, converting 2 TDs.Comparatively, Barber has 19 TDs in 48 goal line attempts (39.6% conversion rate).
switz
Footballguy
If you do some research, I posted in another thread about these two, Turner actually has a higher TD/touch inside the 10... he's actually a better GL runner than MB3
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
I don't know what planet you're living on switz, but the numbers don't bear that out.Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator Results
Righetti
Footballguy
egh, i don't pay too much attention to the YPC of a true backup running back, it is impossible to decipher which kinds of situations he got into.. late in the game, big lead, big deficit, goal-line etc.
Otis
Footballguy
I don't think there's any way you can conclude that Turner is a better runner than Barber in the red zone -- or vice versa. There's data that says that Barber is a good goal line runner. There's just no data on Turner yet. It's like comparing apples to imaginary fruits.
Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator Results
switz
Footballguy
I don't know what planet you're living on switz, but the numbers don't bear that out.
Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator Results
D'oh - got confused with another player being compared to Barber. You're right, Turner's TD numbers aren't even close... ugh, typing w/o thinking.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I agree that 17 attempts in a career don't paint the picture. But FOR SURE you can't say he's better than Barber.I don't think there's any way you can conclude that Turner is a better runner than Barber in the red zone -- or vice versa. There's data that says that Barber is a good goal line runner. There's just no data on Turner yet. It's like comparing apples to imaginary fruits.I don't know what planet you're living on switz, but the numbers don't bear that out.
Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator Results
Otis
Footballguy
There's been a study on this -- take a look at some of Chase's recent threads, I believe he references it. Ultimately you can't draw the conclusion that a backup should have a higher YPC. In fact, I think the data suggested that more carries in a game tended to result in HIGHER YPC.Not sure why you wouldn't pay attention to a yards per carry stat for the one position in the game that carries the ball for yards.
switz
Footballguy
See above... it was a thread comparing Barber to a different RB... my mistake.I don't think there's any way you can conclude that Turner is a better runner than Barber in the red zone -- or vice versa. There's data that says that Barber is a good goal line runner. There's just no data on Turner yet. It's like comparing apples to imaginary fruits.
Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator Results
Otis
Footballguy
Agreed.I agree that 17 attempts in a career don't paint the picture. But FOR SURE you can't say he's better than Barber.I don't think there's any way you can conclude that Turner is a better runner than Barber in the red zone -- or vice versa. There's data that says that Barber is a good goal line runner. There's just no data on Turner yet. It's like comparing apples to imaginary fruits.
Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator Results
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Barber has 24 TDs in 84 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (28.6%)
Turner has 3 TDs in 17 rushing attempts inside the 10-year line (17.6%)
Data Dominator ResultsD'oh - got confused with another player being compared to Barber. You're right, Turner's TD numbers aren't even close... ugh, typing w/o thinking.
I was going to say...you don't usually make proclamations that are that far off base 
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Just for kicks and grins, here are the top 30 RBs in terms of TD/touch (2002-2007)
Note: I used 20 attempts as the minimum cut off
Rank Player Name TDs Atts %Conv
1 Stacey Mack 13 30 43.33%
2 James Mungro 12 28 42.86%
3 Priest Holmes 53 125 42.40%
4 Jonathan Wells 11 27 40.74%
5 Samkon Gado 8 20 40.00%
6 Shaun Alexander 71 178 39.89%
7 Correll Buckhalter 10 26 38.46%
8 Cedric Benson 8 21 38.10%
9 Brandon Jacobs 20 53 37.74%
10 T.J. Duckett 27 72 37.50%
11 LaDainian Tomlinson 86 231 37.23%
12 Emmitt Smith 12 33 36.36%
13 Jerome Bettis 34 96 35.42%
14 Larry Johnson 39 111 35.14%
15 Corey Dillon 43 124 34.68%
16 Sammy Morris 10 29 34.48%
17 Ahman Green 32 93 34.41%
18 Marshall Faulk 23 67 34.33%
19 Kevan Barlow 23 68 33.82%
20 Mike Bell 8 24 33.33%
21 Domanick Williams 20 61 32.79%
22 Stephen Davis 26 81 32.10%
23 Garrison Hearst 12 38 31.58%
24 Marion Barber III 28 92 30.43%
25 Kenny Watson 10 33 30.30%
26 Zack Crockett 18 60 30.00%
27 Brian Westbrook 24 80 30.00%
28 Dorsey Levens 8 27 29.63%
29 Reggie Bush 12 41 29.27%
30 Rudi Johnson 39 136 28.68%
Note: I used 20 attempts as the minimum cut off
Rank Player Name TDs Atts %Conv
1 Stacey Mack 13 30 43.33%
2 James Mungro 12 28 42.86%
3 Priest Holmes 53 125 42.40%
4 Jonathan Wells 11 27 40.74%
5 Samkon Gado 8 20 40.00%
6 Shaun Alexander 71 178 39.89%
7 Correll Buckhalter 10 26 38.46%
8 Cedric Benson 8 21 38.10%
9 Brandon Jacobs 20 53 37.74%
10 T.J. Duckett 27 72 37.50%
11 LaDainian Tomlinson 86 231 37.23%
12 Emmitt Smith 12 33 36.36%
13 Jerome Bettis 34 96 35.42%
14 Larry Johnson 39 111 35.14%
15 Corey Dillon 43 124 34.68%
16 Sammy Morris 10 29 34.48%
17 Ahman Green 32 93 34.41%
18 Marshall Faulk 23 67 34.33%
19 Kevan Barlow 23 68 33.82%
20 Mike Bell 8 24 33.33%
21 Domanick Williams 20 61 32.79%
22 Stephen Davis 26 81 32.10%
23 Garrison Hearst 12 38 31.58%
24 Marion Barber III 28 92 30.43%
25 Kenny Watson 10 33 30.30%
26 Zack Crockett 18 60 30.00%
27 Brian Westbrook 24 80 30.00%
28 Dorsey Levens 8 27 29.63%
29 Reggie Bush 12 41 29.27%
30 Rudi Johnson 39 136 28.68%
switz
Footballguy
Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.I was going to say...you don't usually make proclamations that are that far off base
gianmarco
Footballguy
You're exactly right. That's why it's impossible to ignore situation when comparing these 2. As pointed out above, the draft still has to occur for Dallas and Atlanta is so much of an unknown with all the turnover that's happened, but given the current information, it's easily Barber I think primarily due to situation.
mozzy84
Footballguy
he's ranked 6th in the average staff ranking. I don't see it personally....Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.I was going to say...you don't usually make proclamations that are that far off base
JKL
Footballguy
Here is a post I wrote on Barber back in January: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=463For those that don't want to read the whole thing, I look at comparable historical players to MBIII, for example, here is table 2, a list of the most similar backs, who rushed for 200+ attempts for the first time in their careers at age 24, like MBIII:Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.I was going to say...you don't usually make proclamations that are that far off base
And further on . . .
So, I suggested he should be in the discussion of the top 5, based on historic comparables. He plays on a top offense that will create red zone chances and first down opportunities. He has consistently had a good ypc. He catches the ball well. He blocks well. He scores TD's. Other backs who had similar production went on to top fantasy years over the next three seasons. The only missing piece to the puzzle is increasing his touches to closer to 300-350. We will know more coming out of the draft.I'm sitting on MBIII for $15 and Turner for $4 in a $100 auction, 12 team league right now. So if people want to talk up Turner, I'm cool with that too.
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Otis
Footballguy
Statements like that are what make a mess in these debates. What in the heck are you basing that on??Your other statements make sense, other than the "younger" thing, which really has no bearing here since Turner has got near zero mileage on him.
jurb26
Footballguy
Mostly likely meaning we don't really have a lot to evaluate Turner on. From what I've seen however, I would say that Barber is more talented. It is far from a certainty though.What is so difficult to understand about that. Sorry, but I'm not about to throw out the absolute statements many others seem to with such little information.
JKL
Footballguy
Age is more important than mileage. And since neither of them has a recent high workload history that would increase the injury concern, the fact that Barber is a year younger is one factor. Not a factor that should lead you to, say, choose a clearly inferior back who is one year younger. But it is one more year in a dynasty league at peak running back age (25-27)
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
You can't even compare this because LT2 got most of the Td rushes and MBIII did as well.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I don't see Barber being much more valuable than he was this year. He runs so hard that he simply can't get the ball that much IMO. He also has almost no breakaway ability and he will only get into the top 10 if he stays healthy and others are injured. I see him finishing in that 7-12 range if he stays healthy.Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.I was going to say...you don't usually make proclamations that are that far off base
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I think Turners breakaway ability gives him an edge. Barber clearly has great balance and determination, but I think Turner is the type of guy who could carry the ball more times and give you some long carries. If I had a pro team I would take Turner over Barber, but in a fantasy league, the Dallas situation is much better.
Correlation doesn't imply causation, though. I think it's more likely that a high YPC causes more carries than it is that more carries cause a high YPC. Teams keep doing whatever is working.
He finished as #7 this year, in a RBBC with Julius Jones. So you're assuming that one or more of the following occur in order for him to stay at 7, or even drop a bit:1 - His role in the offense stays the same or decreases next yearI don't see Barber being much more valuable than he was this year. He runs so hard that he simply can't get the ball that much IMO. He also has almost no breakaway ability and he will only get into the top 10 if he stays healthy and others are injured. I see him finishing in that 7-12 range if he stays healthy.Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.
2 - The Dallas offense won't be as productive
3 - Barber gets injured
Unless he gets injured or the Cowboys bring in a big-time back to compete with him, I just don't see how he doesn't better his stats from last season.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Barber's 198 FP last year would have ranked 10th in '06, 11th in '05, 13th in '04, 13th in '03 and 18th in '02. On average, 198 FP is a bit below RB12. But last year, lots of RBs got hurt or had odd down years. I'm not sure I'd bank on that happening again.He finished as #7 this year, in a RBBC with Julius Jones. So you're assuming that one or more of the following occur in order for him to stay at 7, or even drop a bit:1 - His role in the offense stays the same or decreases next yearI don't see Barber being much more valuable than he was this year. He runs so hard that he simply can't get the ball that much IMO. He also has almost no breakaway ability and he will only get into the top 10 if he stays healthy and others are injured. I see him finishing in that 7-12 range if he stays healthy.Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.
2 - The Dallas offense won't be as productive
3 - Barber gets injured
Unless he gets injured or the Cowboys bring in a big-time back to compete with him, I just don't see how he doesn't better his stats from last season.
jurb26
Footballguy
This agrument really holds no water considering the fact that of the top 10 RBs last year, despite injuries or missed games or whatever else you want to base stats on, Barber was SIGNIFICANTLY lower than all of them in total touches. Barber is the ONLY top 10 RB from last year that did so while amassing less than 250 touches. Barber recorded only 248 touches. The next lowest was Peterson at 257. After that, no other top 10 RB was under 300 total touches. Do you really expect that a healthy Barber will touch the ball LESS in 2008?Barber's 198 FP last year would have ranked 10th in '06, 11th in '05, 13th in '04, 13th in '03 and 18th in '02. On average, 198 FP is a bit below RB12. But last year, lots of RBs got hurt or had odd down years. I'm not sure I'd bank on that happening again.He finished as #7 this year, in a RBBC with Julius Jones. So you're assuming that one or more of the following occur in order for him to stay at 7, or even drop a bit:1 - His role in the offense stays the same or decreases next yearI don't see Barber being much more valuable than he was this year. He runs so hard that he simply can't get the ball that much IMO. He also has almost no breakaway ability and he will only get into the top 10 if he stays healthy and others are injured. I see him finishing in that 7-12 range if he stays healthy.Thanks, I think...FYI, to illustrate how far off the chart the Barber hype is right now, in the thread which I was thinking of, someone said that Barber was a top-5 dynasty back, and better than Joseph Addai in a dynasty league.
2 - The Dallas offense won't be as productive
3 - Barber gets injured
Unless he gets injured or the Cowboys bring in a big-time back to compete with him, I just don't see how he doesn't better his stats from last season.
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I can't say much about Turner because I really haven't watched him a ton, but I have seen nearly every snap Barber has taken in the NFL.
For some highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgnOrrE9Zng
A few opinions I have on Barber...
Good:
- Might have the best balance of any RB in the NFL. Can bounce and spin out of tackles that don't seem possible.
- Has an excellent jump/cut. Notice many of the plays he makes multiple cuts without losing much acceleration.
- Not a burner, but speed is adequate to get outside.
- Runs like a bull and rarely shies away from contact.
Bad:
- Too often tries to make something big out of nothing and gets dropped for a loss/no gain.
- Good near the endzone, but not the greatest short down back.
- Has not proven he can carry the load. Wore out in the second half of the Giants playoff game after getting 20+ carries early.
- Runs like a bull and rarely shies away from contact.
Bottom Line:
Barber's style of play is so much fun to watch and he has proven to be extremely effective when used sparingly. If he can prove he can carry a full workload, there is no reason he can't be a top-five back in the Dallas offense.
For some highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgnOrrE9Zng
A few opinions I have on Barber...
Good:
- Might have the best balance of any RB in the NFL. Can bounce and spin out of tackles that don't seem possible.
- Has an excellent jump/cut. Notice many of the plays he makes multiple cuts without losing much acceleration.
- Not a burner, but speed is adequate to get outside.
- Runs like a bull and rarely shies away from contact.
Bad:
- Too often tries to make something big out of nothing and gets dropped for a loss/no gain.
- Good near the endzone, but not the greatest short down back.
- Has not proven he can carry the load. Wore out in the second half of the Giants playoff game after getting 20+ carries early.
- Runs like a bull and rarely shies away from contact.
Bottom Line:
Barber's style of play is so much fun to watch and he has proven to be extremely effective when used sparingly. If he can prove he can carry a full workload, there is no reason he can't be a top-five back in the Dallas offense.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I don't like comparisons like this because it's a lose, lose situation for Marion Barber.
If you happen to think he's a better player or does better it's only because of his situation.
All I can say is all I've heard from Turner supporters his entire career are excuses. Excuses that he's behind the best back in the league and if he wasn't, he'd be close to the best himself.
Now, he gets out from underneath LT2 and there's more excuses.
His he going to retire the best player of all time but because of Lt2 or playing for Atlanta, that kept him from showcasing it? The more I read about people that know about Turner, the more I think he needs the perfect situation to be successful.
Is the guy a stud or not. Studs do studly things when given the chance. I have no idea how Turner will do in Atlanta, I don't know as much about him as many people on here. But what I do know is this board as I read it all the time and I've read about way too many excuses for why this guy has never gone off.
If he's great, we'll see it this year.
If you happen to think he's a better player or does better it's only because of his situation.
All I can say is all I've heard from Turner supporters his entire career are excuses. Excuses that he's behind the best back in the league and if he wasn't, he'd be close to the best himself.
Now, he gets out from underneath LT2 and there's more excuses.
His he going to retire the best player of all time but because of Lt2 or playing for Atlanta, that kept him from showcasing it? The more I read about people that know about Turner, the more I think he needs the perfect situation to be successful.
Is the guy a stud or not. Studs do studly things when given the chance. I have no idea how Turner will do in Atlanta, I don't know as much about him as many people on here. But what I do know is this board as I read it all the time and I've read about way too many excuses for why this guy has never gone off.
If he's great, we'll see it this year.
jurb26
Footballguy
I've been on record for a while now saying that I think Turner is severely overrated. I guess we will see this year now that he has the lead role.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-OGF28Phnw
Thought we might as well have both a M. Turner video and M. Barber video in this thread. This is a pretty good Turner one.
Thought we might as well have both a M. Turner video and M. Barber video in this thread. This is a pretty good Turner one.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Barber will probably get around 1100 yards, 11 TD's rushing, 40 receptions and 2 Td's receiving.
So, if you think Turner does more than that, then you should take him before Barber, at least in a redraft.
So, if you think Turner does more than that, then you should take him before Barber, at least in a redraft.
