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Dynasty League Rookie Drafts - Pick 1.4 (1 Viewer)

S

Sugar Huddle

Footballguy
If you've traded the 1.4 rookie pick already I'm interested in knowing what value you received. My thoughts are that the pick is worth more right now since there's a certain level of uncertainty because the players likely to be selected at that spot in Dynasty drafts (Rice, F.Jones, C.Johnson, etc.) do not have an NFL home. If they land on an NFL team with a proven starter then their value may suffer slightly since we'll be waiting for them to get their chance. However, if they go to a team with a shaky RB situation then their value goes up. Who's taking the chance now and trading the pick and what are you getting? And who's hanging onto the pick until after the draft?

 
I think the value will increase after the draft. There's a decent chance that someone like Kevin Smith or Ray Rice will end up in a good spot like Chicago or Houston, where they would have immediate value. Someone is going to pull a JJ Arrington or Brandon Jackson and vault above the fray of second and third tier backs. When that happens, the perceived value of the pick will rise.

 
I have 1.4 in one league, and 1.5 in another. Where players go will be huge for me. In the 1.4, I am strong at RB, but need QB and WR help. I could definitely go that route if I hate the situations that Jones / Rice fall into. People will laugh picking a QB or WR at 4, but if I need the help there, and I don't like the RB situation left to me at 4, that's what I'm doing.

Same with the 1.5. In that league, I need a QB bad. I can't get a good one in trade for 1.5 (16 teams, so QB's are valuable), so if ATL takes Ryan in the first (meaning it's likely going to be his team at some point this year), it might tempt me.

The above said, both picks will likely be RB's, but I'll wait and see where everyone lands first. Sometimes taking the first WR or QB is better than taking the 5th RB.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jwb said:
I have 1.4 in one league, and 1.5 in another. Where players go will be huge for me. In the 1.4, I am strong at RB, but need QB and WR help. I could definitely go that route if I hate the situations that Jones / Rice fall into. People will laugh picking a QB or WR at 4, but if I need the help there, and I don't like the RB situation left to me at 4, that's what I'm doing.

Same with the 1.5. In that league, I need a QB bad. I can't get a good one in trade for 1.5 (16 teams, so QB's are valuable), so if ATL takes Ryan in the first (meaning it's likely going to be his team at some point this year), it might tempt me.

The above said, both picks will likely be RB's, but I'll wait and see where everyone lands first. Sometimes taking the first WR or QB is better than taking the 5th RB.
Click to expand...
Why wouldn't you trade down?
 
I would sit tight on 1.04 until April 27th. Things will open up. They always do. Also, this year is not one of those JJ Arrington, Brandon Jackson years. Look at all the years when 4 RBs were chosen in the 1st round. You could end up with Joseph Addai or Shaun Alexander with a higher chance than second round RBs like Arrington and Jackson. Whatever the counter case may be, 1.04 will look like a better pick after the cards are dealt than right now.

 
I have the 1.4, and I'm pretty confident that the pick will be Felix Jones. I put him in the first tier, and think it is pretty likely that he will be the player that falls. Personally, I think the 1.5 pick is more likely the one that changes in value. I would lean towards taking Felix Jones in a bad situation (due to his talent) over a lesser talent in a better situation.

 
EBF said:
I think the value will increase after the draft. There's a decent chance that someone like Kevin Smith or Ray Rice will end up in a good spot like Chicago or Houston, where they would have immediate value. Someone is going to pull a JJ Arrington or Brandon Jackson and vault above the fray of second and third tier backs. When that happens, the perceived value of the pick will rise.
Click to expand...
:confused: I would agree with this.3 backs with talent and a 4th with best opportunity. That added knowledge would mean 1.04 would be more coveted, especially by an owner who just lost value at that team (i.e. an Ahman Green owner sees Felix Jones coming to town).
 
Jedimaster21 said:
I have the 1.4, and I'm pretty confident that the pick will be Felix Jones. I put him in the first tier, and think it is pretty likely that he will be the player that falls. Personally, I think the 1.5 pick is more likely the one that changes in value. I would lean towards taking Felix Jones in a bad situation (due to his talent) over a lesser talent in a better situation.
Click to expand...
I think it is equally likely that Felix Jones lands in a better sitaution then the other 2 backs, or 1. That will bring the value of 1.03 closer to 1.04. I call it the confusion factor. There were many leagues where Priest Holmes and Marshall Faulk clouded the judgements of the drafters. I am not saying it will happen, buut if you were selling today, the price would be as if it would not happen and 1.04 would go to a bad place. Historically, this is not the case. Now, 1.05 is another case I am scared to comment on.
 
Bumping this to see if anyone replies that they have traded the 1.4 pick already and what they got? This is one of the deepest drafts for RBs in a long time so I can see a lot of guys jockeying into position for a top pick 1.4-1.7 to get into that second tier after the big 3.

 
Neo said:
jwb said:
I have 1.4 in one league, and 1.5 in another. Where players go will be huge for me. In the 1.4, I am strong at RB, but need QB and WR help. I could definitely go that route if I hate the situations that Jones / Rice fall into. People will laugh picking a QB or WR at 4, but if I need the help there, and I don't like the RB situation left to me at 4, that's what I'm doing.

Same with the 1.5. In that league, I need a QB bad. I can't get a good one in trade for 1.5 (16 teams, so QB's are valuable), so if ATL takes Ryan in the first (meaning it's likely going to be his team at some point this year), it might tempt me.

The above said, both picks will likely be RB's, but I'll wait and see where everyone lands first. Sometimes taking the first WR or QB is better than taking the 5th RB.
Click to expand...
Why wouldn't you trade down?
Click to expand...
I'm usually not a fan of trading down unless there's a few players I'd be equally happy with - if I trade down from 5 to 7 because I'd rather have M Kelly, and 6 grabs him, I really lost - all because I didn't want to "waste" #5 on a WR. Trading down sounds good in theory, but I almost always pick whom I feel is the best guy at my slot, but if I hate his situation (and feel it won't change for the better in the near future), I'll just grab whom I think is best for my team.

 
I traded the 1.4 and change for Larry Johnson in one dynasty league. I will note that the team that traded him had a ton of RB's and lacking in other areas. I think the value of the pick depends on who you're dealing with...

Right now, the 1.4 appears to have the weight to get a legit RB. Maybe after the NFL draft, the 4th RB is not in such a GREAT situation, so that could diminish the current trade value.

Good luck!

 
Bizkiteer said:
Right now, the 1.4 appears to have the weight to get a legit RB. Maybe after the NFL draft, the 4th RB is not in such a GREAT situation, so that could diminish the current trade value.
Click to expand...
I think the reality is exactly the opposite. Right now, people think it is an RBBC situation at best, where it could quite possibly end up being a full-time starter.
 
Neo said:
jwb said:
I have 1.4 in one league, and 1.5 in another. Where players go will be huge for me. In the 1.4, I am strong at RB, but need QB and WR help. I could definitely go that route if I hate the situations that Jones / Rice fall into. People will laugh picking a QB or WR at 4, but if I need the help there, and I don't like the RB situation left to me at 4, that's what I'm doing.

Same with the 1.5. In that league, I need a QB bad. I can't get a good one in trade for 1.5 (16 teams, so QB's are valuable), so if ATL takes Ryan in the first (meaning it's likely going to be his team at some point this year), it might tempt me.

The above said, both picks will likely be RB's, but I'll wait and see where everyone lands first. Sometimes taking the first WR or QB is better than taking the 5th RB.
Click to expand...
Why wouldn't you trade down?
Click to expand...
Better yet, trade the 1.4 for a QB or WR. As EBF stated, the 1.4 value will go up if a need team drafts any back not in the top 3. Somebody has to have a need for RB in your league. I would be looking to acquire Schaub or Rodgers. (Cutler too if he is some how available) Either or both could be franchise QBs for you by week 8. Better than reaching for a rookie QB that will take years to develop.
 
I traded the 1.05 and Vince Young for the 1.03 to get into the top three. My other QB's are Farve (Before he retired) Aaron Rodgers, Jeff Garcia, Phillip Rivers and Donovan McNabb so I felt it easy to give up Young to get one of the possible franchise backs. Probably doesn't help a whole lot with the 1.04 but shows some value in the range anyway.

 
Last month before Atlanta signed Turner, I was offered Norwood, Benson and Petersen (Chi) for the 1.4.

I'm glad I turned it down.

 
i traded for 1.04, because i expect its value to go up after the NFL draft, when we IMO will no longer have a so-called big3, but maybe even a big5.

i definately traded for 1.04 now to sell it later!

 
JPeso said:
Bizkiteer said:
Right now, the 1.4 appears to have the weight to get a legit RB. Maybe after the NFL draft, the 4th RB is not in such a GREAT situation, so that could diminish the current trade value.
Click to expand...
I think the reality is exactly the opposite. Right now, people think it is an RBBC situation at best, where it could quite possibly end up being a full-time starter.
Click to expand...
With the recent Stewart news, he could fall to 1.4 or 1.5......maybe.
 
Kenlin said:
Last month before Atlanta signed Turner, I was offered Norwood, Benson and Petersen (Chi) for the 1.4.I'm glad I turned it down.
Click to expand...
:shrug: That didn't need much thought.
 
Acrobat7 said:
i traded for 1.04, because i expect its value to go up after the NFL draft, when we IMO will no longer have a so-called big3, but maybe even a big5.i definately traded for 1.04 now to sell it later!
Click to expand...
Depending on the severity of the injury potential discussed in the Stewart thread, the gap between 1.04 and the two above may have just shrank. As you did the trade for profit, I guess you could say your trade may have already started paying dividends.
 
womb said:
Acrobat7 said:
i traded for 1.04, because i expect its value to go up after the NFL draft, when we IMO will no longer have a so-called big3, but maybe even a big5.i definately traded for 1.04 now to sell it later!
Click to expand...
Depending on the severity of the injury potential discussed in the Stewart thread, the gap between 1.04 and the two above may have just shrank. As you did the trade for profit, I guess you could say your trade may have already started paying dividends.
Click to expand...
The Stewart news certainly makes the 1.4 much more interesting because now you've got a lot of guys wondering if he'll slide out of the top 3. I hadn't heard the toe news until yesterday. It certainly is a surprise though that he could need surgery and still run a 4.48 40-yard dash. When healthy does that make him a sub-4.4 guy?
 
womb said:
Acrobat7 said:
i traded for 1.04, because i expect its value to go up after the NFL draft, when we IMO will no longer have a so-called big3, but maybe even a big5.i definately traded for 1.04 now to sell it later!
Click to expand...
Depending on the severity of the injury potential discussed in the Stewart thread, the gap between 1.04 and the two above may have just shrank. As you did the trade for profit, I guess you could say your trade may have already started paying dividends.
Click to expand...
i guess and hope you could say so in general!but in my specific situation, it has its pros and cons...if Steward falls to 1.04 i will definately listen to trade offers. negative for me is, that Ryan might get picked at 1.03 now, since i play in a 2QB league. i have picks 1.04, 1.05 and 1.06 and one of them was going to be Ryan! if Steward's injury makes the guy at 1.03 pick Ryan i'm gonna puke... regardless of this issue we all will have nice discussions about injured toes in the near future... :thumbdown:
 
JohnnyU said:
JPeso said:
Bizkiteer said:
Right now, the 1.4 appears to have the weight to get a legit RB. Maybe after the NFL draft, the 4th RB is not in such a GREAT situation, so that could diminish the current trade value.
Click to expand...
I think the reality is exactly the opposite. Right now, people think it is an RBBC situation at best, where it could quite possibly end up being a full-time starter.
Click to expand...
With the recent Stewart news, he could fall to 1.4 or 1.5......maybe.
Click to expand...
Wish I were in some of these leagues. He will all to 1.3 at worst in every one of mine.
 
JPeso said:
JohnnyU said:
JPeso said:
Bizkiteer said:
Right now, the 1.4 appears to have the weight to get a legit RB. Maybe after the NFL draft, the 4th RB is not in such a GREAT situation, so that could diminish the current trade value.
Click to expand...
I think the reality is exactly the opposite. Right now, people think it is an RBBC situation at best, where it could quite possibly end up being a full-time starter.
Click to expand...
With the recent Stewart news, he could fall to 1.4 or 1.5......maybe.
Click to expand...
Wish I were in some of these leagues. He will all to 1.3 at worst in every one of mine.
Click to expand...
Seriously, I have 1.5 if he falls to me I will do back flips.
 
JohnnyU said:
JPeso said:
Bizkiteer said:
Right now, the 1.4 appears to have the weight to get a legit RB. Maybe after the NFL draft, the 4th RB is not in such a GREAT situation, so that could diminish the current trade value.
Click to expand...
I think the reality is exactly the opposite. Right now, people think it is an RBBC situation at best, where it could quite possibly end up being a full-time starter.
Click to expand...
With the recent Stewart news, he could fall to 1.4 or 1.5......maybe.
Click to expand...
didn't Jamal Lewis have surgery right beofre he was drafted?? He went 1.05 and A-Pete last year witht he collarbone and he went 1.07....those guys did fine. Those guys both had stellar rookie seasons.Stewart at 1.03 would be fine for me.
 
Garts said:
didn't Jamal Lewis have surgery right beofre he was drafted?? He went 1.05 and A-Pete last year witht he collarbone and he went 1.07....those guys did fine. Those guys both had stellar rookie seasons.Stewart at 1.03 would be fine for me.
Click to expand...
I think what people are somewhat afraid of is that this will be a lingering injury throughout his career, perhaps worse than Lavernues Coles condition, which causes him tremendous pain or loss of explosiveness.
 
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