Cotchery vs. Welker (1 Viewer)

The idea for this thread started on a thread of mine over in the AC forum. I'm curious to see what everyone's thoughts are on this since these 2 guys are ranked right next to each other on most lists (of note, my AC question is NOT which of these guys do I prefer so this isn't meant to be an AC thread in disguise at all). In this dynasty thread, they are ranked 21/22 and finished dead even. I think whether or not a league is PPR makes some difference, but not too much since both of these guys catch a good amount of balls. Here is what I wrote on my thread, but would like to see some discussion since these guys have a lot in common and have a lot that is different as well.

"My reasons for Cotchery over Welker are this:

1. Welker is in the perfect situation. He's on the elite pass-first team with Tom Brady and alongside Moss. There's no question that factors in. However, there is no way to improve on this and can only worsen over time. Also, Brady will not throw 50 TDs every year. Cotchery, on the other hand, had nobody at QB and an injured Coles and no running game to speak of. His situation can improve.

2. I don't ever see Welker being a WR1, both in NFL terms or in fantasy terms. I'm still not sure yet on Cotchery, but I think the potential is there. Given that, I prefer Cotchery over Welker. Even if Cotchery never significantly improves and Welker keeps up his current production, the difference isn't substantial.

3. Here are the 2007 stats:

Welker----112/1175/8 TDs

Cotchery--82/1130/2 TDs

I see Welker needing 30 more catches to get about the same yardage as Cotchery. With 0 PPR, their yardage totals are equal, however Cotchery has a significantly higher YPC than Welker. That's not good for Welker. Unless he gets another 90-100 balls, he won't get to 1000 yds again. Cotchery, on the other hand, has now performed similarly for 2 yrs in a row. The major difference between the 2 in 2007 was TDs. As was brought up in another thread, only 3 WRs in the history of the NFL have had 1100+ yds and scored only 2 TDs or less. Cotchery is one of those 3. Those are abnormally low TD #'s for that amount of yardage (similar to Parker this past year). It stands to reason that Cotchery's TD #'s should improve next year. I doubt Welker's have room for improvement and will likely drop off. The fact that Brady threw 50 TDs and Welker "only" got 8 TDs is a little concerning to me.

When I put all those things together, Cotchery is an easy choice over Welker for me. I'm not saying it's by a substantial amount, but I don't see any reason to prefer Welker with the exception of his extraordinary situation. Given the fact that Welker only scored 32 more pts than Cotchery all year in my scoring system (with Cotchery missing 1 game) despite that disparity in their situations and Cotchery being injured, I don't see Welker outperforming Cotchery in the long-term.

In the end, I think both are going to end up with very similar #'s over the next couple years and we're "arguing" over insignificant final differences, but the potential for improvement Cotchery brings is enough to sway the vote for me. Makes for a great discussion, though."

I'd vote Welker just because you know the Pats have Brady at QB (especially in PPR leagues). The Jets have ??? at QB.

Moss should continue to allow Welker to get open (as will the Pats' style of short passes).

I have no reason to believe Welker won't catch 100 balls again, and in that offense he's as likely to score 15 TDs as he is to regress to 5. I would take Welker all day every day over all but about 10 guys in FF>

David Yudkin said:

I'd vote Welker just because you know the Pats have Brady at QB (especially in PPR leagues). The Jets have ??? at QB.Moss should continue to allow Welker to get open (as will the Pats' style of short passes).

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Yes, but the Jet's have had ??? at QB for the last 2 years and Cotchery has still performed well. What happens if the Jet's actually get a real QB in the next year or 2?

gianmarco said:

David Yudkin said:

I'd vote Welker just because you know the Pats have Brady at QB (especially in PPR leagues). The Jets have ??? at QB.Moss should continue to allow Welker to get open (as will the Pats' style of short passes).

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Yes, but the Jet's have had ??? at QB for the last 2 years and Cotchery has still performed well. What happens if the Jet's actually get a real QB in the next year or 2?

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What happens if the defense improves and they draft DMac at RB and elect to run the ball all day long?I'm not saying Cotchery is a bum, but if we play the what if game we could come up with great arguments that could never materialize.I don't think Cotchery is a bad player to own (in fact he's been on my several of my teams the past couple of years . . . as has Welker), but I wouldn't give you Welker for him straight up.

Welker. I'm just not impressed with Cotchery's talent. And the two situations aren't even close. Lastly, I like Welker because I think he'll be that consistent 6-8 catches for 60-80 yard guy with a possible TD each week. I like that production as opposed to inconsistency out of Cotchery. He could be 100 and 2 TDs or 17 and 0 TDs.

David Yudkin said:

gianmarco said:

David Yudkin said:

I'd vote Welker just because you know the Pats have Brady at QB (especially in PPR leagues). The Jets have ??? at QB.Moss should continue to allow Welker to get open (as will the Pats' style of short passes).

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Yes, but the Jet's have had ??? at QB for the last 2 years and Cotchery has still performed well. What happens if the Jet's actually get a real QB in the next year or 2?

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What happens if the defense improves and they draft DMac at RB and elect to run the ball all day long?I'm not saying Cotchery is a bum, but if we play the what if game we could come up with great arguments that could never materialize.I don't think Cotchery is a bad player to own (in fact he's been on my several of my teams the past couple of years . . . as has Welker), but I wouldn't give you Welker for him straight up.

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Of course we can play the what if game, but my point is that the Jet's passing game has been atrocious. They ranked 25th last year in passing yds/game. How much worse can it get? I would be delighted if they got DMac. I think ANY improvement on that offense can help out the passing game. That's my point---the Jet's passing offense really has no place to go but up. It's not the "what if" game. If things stay the same, he's shown he can put up pretty good fantasy #'s on a horrible passing offense (25th). He's done it with no running game, no QB, and at times, no other WR to help draw coverage when Coles was hurt. I don't see any scenario where things could be worse off for him and his production fall off. I think there are potentially a lot of things that can happen that can help improve his production. Yet, he's shown he can do well without any improvements and they aren't necessary for continued success.Welker, on the other hand, is in the exact opposite situation. NE was the #1 passing team last year. They had a record-setting passing year. There really is no place to go but down from them, just like Manning and the Colts in 2005. Now, if you think Welker can actually improve on what he did last year, then that's fine. I don't agree but I'm not saying it's not possible. And, as it stands, Welker's situation absolutely IS better than Cotchery's and that has to factor in. So I can understand someone liking Welker better. I just don't agree with it.But, don't call it a "what if" game because the main point of why I started this is that I see Welker as having no place to go but down (due to situation) and for Cotchery to go no place but up (due to situation). Therefore, the current gap between them (which is already small), realistically should only get smaller or even reverse, but almost assuredly shouldn't widen.

Given no PPR, I voted Cotchery, for the sole reason that he has potential to be a WR1 in the NFL. He runs all the routes and has great hands. Welker is an elite slot receiver, but I think he will not be the typical WR1 guy. I can see him staying right around 10-12 y/r.

Now, if this is a PPR, I would flipflop these 2. The 30 catch difference you note in their seasons works out to 300 yards of production in that scoring format.

I disagree that the 8 TDs was worrisome. Watching the Pats games down the stretch last year, there was a lot of forcing the ball to Moss in the final few games. I don't think Welker is in line for 12+, but I can see him staying right around 8-10 TDs in this offense. Cotchery had an anomolous year in the 2 TDs, but I don't project him for regular double digit TDs either.

And I don't agree with the upside you put on Cotchery's situation, either. Welker benefits from having Moss opposite him, an accurate QB, and a system that will play well to Welkers strengths. Pretty ideal situation, but everything about it looks like it's locked up over the next 3 years, so not much risk.

Cotchery's situation is less than ideal, but at the same time, he became a bit of the focal point of the passing attack. Most of the year, Coles would draw the most coverage, leaving Cotchery more open, and the QBs found him. If the situation there changes, and he becomes more of the WR1 threat, the coverages may roll his way ending in fewer looks. Cotchery's QB can certainly get better, but his number of targets may dip some.

All in all, Welker for me in a PPR, Cotchery in non-PPR. And I'd prefer to have either one as WR2.

Cotchery. Without a doubt.

Welker is one year older, and looks to be the product of the NE system. He has only had one good year. NE should have some semblance of a running game and Brady won't throw 50 TDs again. Welker might actually be the most overvalued fantasy player this comming year. The Patriot offense as a whole can only get worse.

Cotchery has strung together consecutive good years with no one else around him. His two TDs last year was an aberration and will definately increase next year. The Jets offense as a whole can only get better.

gheemony said:

Welker. I'm just not impressed with Cotchery's talent. And the two situations aren't even close. Lastly, I like Welker because I think he'll be that consistent 6-8 catches for 60-80 yard guy with a possible TD each week. I like that production as opposed to inconsistency out of Cotchery. He could be 100 and 2 TDs or 17 and 0 TDs.

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That statement shows you haven't really paid attention to Cotchery or his game logs. The guy had 5+ catches in 12 out of 15 games last year. In PPR, he put up only 3 stinkers the whole year. If anything, Cotchery IS consistent but not explosive. I think your characterization of him is completely backwards.

I like Cotchery's overall build much more because he is the sort of guy who can become a WR1 for his team, whereas Welker is better suited to the slot. Last year that worked out well for him, but on average those kinds of WRs do not produce as consistently. I see a very productive career for Cotchery but I believe that last year was a Career Year for Welker and that he will fall back to the mean, as they say. He will still have a good year but within two or three years I see him as no better than a WR3 or WR4 in fantasy.

Everything is relative. I play almost exclusively in PPR leagues, and last year Welker bested Cotchery 257 to 193 scoring wise.

Things to consider . . .

The Patriots offense bested the Jets scoring wise by more than a 2:1 margin. NE likely will not approach 600 points again, but htey should still be very potent.

A lot of Cotchery's production came when Coles was banged up or out with an injury. Had Coles not gotten hurt, Cotchery likely would have suffered in his year-end numbers.

The assumption being made is that the Jets can only get better and the Patriots can only get worse. While that may be true, it does not in itself mean Welker will do worse and Cotchery will do better.

I would guess that of the Patriots options, Moss will lose out on a lot of TDs next year. IMO, that will give some other players more TD opportunities. While I don't see NE scoring 589 points again, they have (on paper) what should be an easy schedule facing everyone in the AFC East twice, the AFC West, and the NFC West. Do you really see the Pats offense falling way off against those teams?

We don't ultimately know who the long term solution is at QB for the Jets (if they opt to get a new one any time soon). So we have no way of knowing what to expect in terms of WR targetting from this mystery QB. Maybe they will go with what they have . . . and that could be one of the reasons why their offensive production suffered.

I do think that the Jets overall will be better than last year and the Pats overall will slip some. But IMO the Jets may just layer on production from other players and it may not simple be a case of giving more production to Cotchery.

David Yudkin said:

I'd vote Welker just because you know the Pats have Brady at QB (especially in PPR leagues). The Jets have ??? at QB.Moss should continue to allow Welker to get open (as will the Pats' style of short passes).

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Teams have a very hard time accounting for him in this offense. I dont see that changing anytime soon. The guy is a ppr monster.

gheemony said:

Welker. I'm just not impressed with Cotchery's talent. And the two situations aren't even close. Lastly, I like Welker because I think he'll be that consistent 6-8 catches for 60-80 yard guy with a possible TD each week. I like that production as opposed to inconsistency out of Cotchery. He could be 100 and 2 TDs or 17 and 0 TDs.

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While I'm not saying I disagree with Welker over Cotchery, I don't think you're giving Cotchery enough credit. He is the model of consistency for catches (as is Welker). The place where he gets caught up and has not gotten enough FF credit is in the TD department. Two year's ago, Pennington used Coles a ton in the red zone, and last year I often wonder if they were ever in the red zone. Something that a lot of people don't know is that he broke Holt's receiving records at NC State.

David Yudkin said:

A lot of Cotchery's production came when Coles was banged up or out with an injury. Had Coles not gotten hurt, Cotchery likely would have suffered in his year-end numbers.

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He also had some of his worst games when Coles was out... with Brad Smith and McCareins out there the defense focused on Cotchery big time (he was also banged up when Coles was late in the year).

gianmarco said:

gheemony said:

Welker. I'm just not impressed with Cotchery's talent. And the two situations aren't even close. Lastly, I like Welker because I think he'll be that consistent 6-8 catches for 60-80 yard guy with a possible TD each week. I like that production as opposed to inconsistency out of Cotchery. He could be 100 and 2 TDs or 17 and 0 TDs.

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That statement shows you haven't really paid attention to Cotchery or his game logs. The guy had 5+ catches in 12 out of 15 games last year. In PPR, he put up only 3 stinkers the whole year. If anything, Cotchery IS consistent but not explosive. I think your characterization of him is completely backwards.

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I had both Cotchery and Welker and often had to choose between them for a starter. So I DID pay attention. That being said, you do bring up a good point. We just choose to disagree. The game logs may bear out statistical similarities, but my perception each week was that Cotchery was harder to start because of the fear of inconsistency. Partly because I didn't trust the Jets offense to score (especially with QB issues). Party because I thought Coles was the preferred target.

gheemony said:

gianmarco said:

gheemony said:

Welker. I'm just not impressed with Cotchery's talent. And the two situations aren't even close. Lastly, I like Welker because I think he'll be that consistent 6-8 catches for 60-80 yard guy with a possible TD each week. I like that production as opposed to inconsistency out of Cotchery. He could be 100 and 2 TDs or 17 and 0 TDs.

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That statement shows you haven't really paid attention to Cotchery or his game logs. The guy had 5+ catches in 12 out of 15 games last year. In PPR, he put up only 3 stinkers the whole year. If anything, Cotchery IS consistent but not explosive. I think your characterization of him is completely backwards.

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I had both Cotchery and Welker and often had to choose between them for a starter. So I DID pay attention. That being said, you do bring up a good point. We just choose to disagree. The game logs may bear out statistical similarities, but my perception each week was that Cotchery was harder to start because of the fear of inconsistency. Partly because I didn't trust the Jets offense to score (especially with QB issues). Party because I thought Coles was the preferred target.

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Well, you're absolutely right that Coles was the preferred target and that you couldn't trust the Jets to score. And, I can see why you preferred Welker (I did too) as he seemed to get it done every week. But, the only thing inconsistent about Cotchery last year were his TD totals (or lack thereof). As far as receptions and yardage, that was the one thing you could count on from him week in and week out. Nothing explosive, but just there. To DY: I appreciate that last post and you make some great points. I think you're right that it would be foolish to think that the Pats will drop off significantly enough to really hurt Welker or that the Jets will improve enough to seriously bump Cotchery (or that it would even affect Cotchery at all if they did). I also think if you look in the short term (next 1-2 yrs), then Welker's value is probably slightly higher because of that disparity. I guess I just see it as that difference just not being that big and over a longer period >2 yrs, that Cotchery should be able to make up that ground and potentially widen the gap significantly in his favor since I see him with the potential to be a WR1 in both the NFL and fantasy. I just don't see that from Welker ever.

Interesting to see how differently a lot of us can view two closely ranked players.

These 2 at this point are as close to a coin flip as you can be. I think after this year, one of these guys will clearly emerge as to who is going to be the better fantasy producer in years to come.

Questions to ask for the future....

-Age? Basically a dead lock Welker 26 and Cotchery 25.

-Which of these guys is in the better situation now/future? Easily Welker

-Which of these guys will be more consistent? Cotchery has proven to be consistent in back to back seasons. Was Welker's year a fluke run in an offense that broke several records when it has been known to produce fantasy WR 3/4 type guys with targets being spread around everywhere.

-Which one has a bigger threat of seeing less passes thrown their way due to other targets on the team? Moss, Watson, NE RB's particulary Faulk are definitely a bigger threat then Coles and nothing there after for Cothcery with the Jets.

I really don't know which guy I would choose today if I had to. Like my opening sentence said, this is a coin flip to me.

Patoons said:

David Yudkin said:

A lot of Cotchery's production came when Coles was banged up or out with an injury. Had Coles not gotten hurt, Cotchery likely would have suffered in his year-end numbers.

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He also had some of his worst games when Coles was out... with Brad Smith and McCareins out there the defense focused on Cotchery big time (he was also banged up when Coles was late in the year).

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Went back and looked and with Coles out weeks 15, 16, 17 Cotchery put up:6 53 yards8 152 and 1 TD8 76In ppr over a full season that would turn out to be:177 receptions1498 yards5 TDsIf those are his "worst games" then I really want to own him when Coles retires.

As a Cotchery owner i was a lil down on his stats with a QB not named Chad. Don't have the game by game numbers but when Chad wasn't the QB it seemed like Cotch wasn't even targeted.

I don't see this being too close. Welker is a much better fantasy option than Cotchery. Their situations aren't even close. Welker is playing with a future hall-of-famer in the middle of his prime with an offense that is overall pretty young and has all their key components signed long term. While the Pats may not have 50 passing TDs again I find it hard to believe it won't remain a topshelf unit for at least the next three years. As for the Jets they have a very dicey QB situation. Pennington is an above average "real" QB who's no stranger to injuries and isn't the type of talent that will ever put up big #'s. Clemens looks like he has some skill but he's not a definite and even if he pans out I don't see big numbers from him right away. Overall there will be a big gap in offensive output between these two units.

With regard to Welker there is a huge thing everyone is overlooking. He put up those numbers in his first year with Brady. Right from the get-go they were on the same page and looked like they had been playing catch together for years. There was no getting to know you period. With that in mind I only see Welker improving in this offense as he and Brady continue to grow together (and yes, because of #81's presence).

Also, Welker proved last year that he can put up big numbers playing with a lot of other weapons. Cotchery put up his numbers on an offense that didn't have many other options. If the Jets O is to get better they will have to find more weapons. Will that mean Cotchery's #'s take a hit or will they improve? Right now there is no answer to that question. With Welker you know what you're getting...with Cotchery you don't.

I like Cotchery a lot. He's a quality WR. Yet, every time I watch him in his current situation I look at a guy who's a better "real" WR than a fantasy WR. He'll get his receptions and the yardage will be solid but unless Clemens really takes off I see Cotchery's upside being limited. With Welker you have a guy in a fantastic fantasy situation that could actually get better if the Pats D takes a step backwards in 2008. While there's still more to the offseason (i.e. draft, trades and free agency) the Pats could actually be in a situation where they rely more on their O than at any time in the BB era and that only bodes well for Welker as he enters his second season with Brady.

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.

It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

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I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

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I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

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Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

az_prof said:

Patoons said:

David Yudkin said:

A lot of Cotchery's production came when Coles was banged up or out with an injury. Had Coles not gotten hurt, Cotchery likely would have suffered in his year-end numbers.

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He also had some of his worst games when Coles was out... with Brad Smith and McCareins out there the defense focused on Cotchery big time (he was also banged up when Coles was late in the year).

Click to expand...

Went back and looked and with Coles out weeks 15, 16, 17 Cotchery put up:6 53 yards8 152 and 1 TD8 76In ppr over a full season that would turn out to be:177 receptions1498 yards5 TDsIf those are his "worst games" then I really want to own him when Coles retires.

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Coles was also out other games IIRC during the year, i.e. the Dallas game when Cotchery had a nice DUD.

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

Click to expand...

I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

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Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

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Not trying to bust nads but this isn't too difficult to understand. IF Brady and Welker were on the same page when they had zero history together than it only stands to reason that once they do get some history together things are only going to get better and easier. They did what they did last year as they were feeling each other out and learning each other strengths and weaknesses. As they enter year two and now have concrete info of how each other operates it only stands to reason things will get even better as they begin to move into that area of not even having to think about what the other guy is going to do. Your point is that because they had a seamless transistion last year there is no room for improvement and I disagree with that reasoning. The more games they play together the stronger the QB/WR relationship grows and suddenly you get to the point where a simple nod that no one else sees means something to them.

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

Click to expand...

I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

Click to expand...

Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

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Not trying to bust nads but this isn't too difficult to understand. IF Brady and Welker were on the same page when they had zero history together than it only stands to reason that once they do get some history together things are only going to get better and easier. They did what they did last year as they were feeling each other out and learning each other strengths and weaknesses. As they enter year two and now have concrete info of how each other operates it only stands to reason things will get even better as they begin to move into that area of not even having to think about what the other guy is going to do. Your point is that because they had a seamless transistion last year there is no room for improvement and I disagree with that reasoning. The more games they play together the stronger the QB/WR relationship grows and suddenly you get to the point where a simple nod that no one else sees means something to them.

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Well, I'm not trying to be difficult either, but you're just not getting what I was trying to say. I AGREE with you that as they enter year two, things should improve between them. I think the stability and the fact that they will become more familiar with each other IS a plus for Welker. And if you had simply stated that, I would have just agreed. However, your post seemed to imply that because they were so together and in sync their first year that THAT was the reason that he would improve and that is simply contradictory. It only stands to reason that their chemistry will improve over time. But the reason for that improvement is time. When you point out how that should happen and give the reason for it as how well they did in their 1st year, it doesn't fit. Bottomline, I agree with your end point that their chemistry will improve and that it may result in some increased production for Welker. I don't agree with your logic in arriving at that end point that the reason for it is how well they did their first year.In the end, the whole above point boils down to the situation that Welker is in heavily favors him. In addition to a lot of the points from the beginning, the familiarity and experience in the offense is just another plus on Welker's side that goes against Cotchery and his QB carousel. Some may see that as a good thing for Welker, but I also see it as somewhat as a plus for Cotchery, again, for the reason that he has much more room for improvement in that area if he does get a QB and gets to build a rapport. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

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I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

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Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

Click to expand...

Not trying to bust nads but this isn't too difficult to understand. IF Brady and Welker were on the same page when they had zero history together than it only stands to reason that once they do get some history together things are only going to get better and easier. They did what they did last year as they were feeling each other out and learning each other strengths and weaknesses. As they enter year two and now have concrete info of how each other operates it only stands to reason things will get even better as they begin to move into that area of not even having to think about what the other guy is going to do. Your point is that because they had a seamless transistion last year there is no room for improvement and I disagree with that reasoning. The more games they play together the stronger the QB/WR relationship grows and suddenly you get to the point where a simple nod that no one else sees means something to them.

Click to expand...

Well, I'm not trying to be difficult either, but you're just not getting what I was trying to say. I AGREE with you that as they enter year two, things should improve between them. I think the stability and the fact that they will become more familiar with each other IS a plus for Welker. And if you had simply stated that, I would have just agreed. However, your post seemed to imply that because they were so together and in sync their first year that THAT was the reason that he would improve and that is simply contradictory. It only stands to reason that their chemistry will improve over time. But the reason for that improvement is time. When you point out how that should happen and give the reason for it as how well they did in their 1st year, it doesn't fit. Bottomline, I agree with your end point that their chemistry will improve and that it may result in some increased production for Welker. I don't agree with your logic in arriving at that end point that the reason for it is how well they did their first year.In the end, the whole above point boils down to the situation that Welker is in heavily favors him. In addition to a lot of the points from the beginning, the familiarity and experience in the offense is just another plus on Welker's side that goes against Cotchery and his QB carousel. Some may see that as a good thing for Welker, but I also see it as somewhat as a plus for Cotchery, again, for the reason that he has much more room for improvement in that area if he does get a QB and gets to build a rapport. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

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Since we seem to agree on the overall point I'll just say we can agree to disagree on the other part and leave it there.

I like Cotchery a little better, but its extremely close for me. PPR, I give the edge to Welker. No PPR, I like Cotchery. Im always a little wary of a player whos value completely hinges on his situation, so I feel a little safer with Cotch, who I know can be productive even when his offense is a complete mess

pnewtonjr said:

Cotchery. Without a doubt.

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Welker is one year older,

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....so is Cotchery. Welker will be 27 next season. Cotchery will be 26.

and looks to be the product of the NE system.

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And? Jerry Rice was a product of the San Fran system. Marvin Harrison a product of the Indy system. Did the system change while I was napping?

He has only had one good year.

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Cotchery has had only two mediocre years.

NE should have some semblance of a running game and Brady won't throw 50 TDs again.

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Says who? Last I checked, their O-line wasn't much for run-blocking.

Welker might actually be the most overvalued fantasy player this comming year.

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Possibly, but that doesn't apply to a discussion about he and Cotchery.

The Patriot offense as a whole can only get worse.

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The Patriots averaged a TD less per game after their week 10 bye last season. They could very easily regress but (1) I wouldn't be on it and (2) who is to say that regression will affect Welker significantly? If I had to guess which players TDs would take a tumble, it would be Moss, who would be hard-pressed to catch 23 TDs again, seeing as that has only happened once in league history. Welker's 8 TDs is a relatively pedestrian amount and easily matchable.

Cotchery has strung together consecutive good years with no one else around him. His two TDs last year was an aberration and will definately increase next year. The Jets offense as a whole can only get better.

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Agree on all points. I like Cotchery's prospects and with the right arm taking snaps, he could become a 1200/10 guy as soon as next year. However, I think that many of your points against Welker (age, etc.) can be framed easily against Cotchery too.

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

Click to expand...

I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

Click to expand...

Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

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Rather than improve, the statistical likelihood is that Welker falls back to the mean of his production, or something closer to it. No way NE offense passes as much in 08; historically, Bellichick doesn't pass as much as the team did last year. I see a regression in the future. It will still be a potent offense but it will be more balanced.

az_prof said:

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

Click to expand...

I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

Click to expand...

Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

Click to expand...

Rather than improve, the statistical likelihood is that Welker falls back to the mean of his production, or something closer to it. No way NE offense passes as much in 08; historically, Bellichick doesn't pass as much as the team did last year. I see a regression in the future. It will still be a potent offense but it will be more balanced.

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I think this is an assumption you can't make. BB changes things up year to year based on his offensive talent. Yet, looking at their current talent level on defense (and offense) I see a Patriot team that may lean on it's offense more than at anytime in the BB era. As stated earlier there's still a lot of time to patch some holes but right now this has a chance to be the first time in the BB era where the O is asked to carry much more of the weight than the D. Last year the Pats passed because they wanted to, this year they may pass because they have to.Also, I don't think it makes any sense to look at Welker's production in Miami. It was a horrible situation and he was also at a point in his career where he was an unknown (and underutlized) quantity which is a far cry from where he is today. I think Welker needs to play a couple of more years before you can say what his mean is. The Pats gave up a #2 and #7 draft pick for him as well as a pretty good contract and as I said last year it was done because he will be a key part of this offense for quite sometime.

az_prof said:

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.

It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

Click to expand...

I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

Click to expand...

Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

Click to expand...

Rather than improve, the statistical likelihood is that Welker falls back to the mean of his production, or something closer to it. No way NE offense passes as much in 08; historically, Bellichick doesn't pass as much as the team did last year. I see a regression in the future. It will still be a potent offense but it will be more balanced.

Click to expand...

HIstorically, he didn't have Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker.

az_prof said:

gianmarco said:

Boston said:

gianmarco said:

I don't understand your argument about Welker getting better. You mention that they were on the same page from the get-go and looked like they've been doing this for years. Yet, you say that after one year of experience, it will only get better? That seems contradictory.

It would have made more sense if you said "they just started playing together and weren't even on the same page and look at what he did. Imagine after 1 year and they actually get comfortable with each other". Then, I might understand where you're coming from.

Click to expand...

I don't see what's so difficult to understand. Without any past history these two hit the ground running and were on the same page. That was was while they were learning about each other. With a year under their belt I only see this chemistry continuing to grow. Kind of like how a point guard and a scorer improve every year as they learn more and more about each other's game and moves. Both Welker and Brady are very intelligent players. Welker's game is not built on raw physical ability. It's built on smarts, determination and hard work. He's a guy that Brady trusts and I think that relationship only improves with a year under their belt together and I fully expect that to translate to big stats.

Click to expand...

Again, you're saying they've been on the same page since they started. What are they supposed to do now to improve on that? I'm not disagreeing with you that they were in sync. They were. But to use that as a reason as to why they will improve this year is contradictory. Again, it would make more sense if they were NOT on the same page and put up the results they did. It would then stand to reason that with a year under their belt of playing together, the chemistry would improve and the results could also improve. If they were already on the same page and seemed so in sync like they've been doing it for years, that would seem like a reason why he would NOT improve since that wasn't something that held him back.

Click to expand...

Rather than improve, the statistical likelihood is that Welker falls back to the mean of his production, or something closer to it. No way NE offense passes as much in 08; historically, Bellichick doesn't pass as much as the team did last year. I see a regression in the future. It will still be a potent offense but it will be more balanced.

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The only case where statistical regression to the mean makes sense, IMO, is when the other factors involved in determining the mean remain constant. In this case, Welker's mean IS last year's production. As noted by others, this is the first year in this offense, with this set of talent. Will the offense throw 50? Probably not. Will it still be a predominantly pass first offense? Absolutely. Will they continue to use the short passing game as a component of their ball control? Absolutely. I would not be at all surprised to see Welker, assuming general health of the NE offense, to continue to post 100+ catch seasons and 7-10 TDs regularly.