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A good year to have a low pick in fantasy drafts? (1 Viewer)

faux_bear

Footballguy
In recent years I've been bummed at getting stuck with a low (9 - 12) pick in fantasy drafts. The difference in value between the stud RB's and the second/third tiers has seemed particularly great. Last year for example, picking at the bottom of the first meant you drafted guys like Rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown, Peyton Manning, Shaun Alexander, Laurence Maroney and Willie McGahee...you can argue that amongst these, only McGahee had a fully productive fantasy season. I would have included Clinton Portis in here but you'll remember that last year he was being taken in the 3rd or even 4th round of most drafts.

Sure there were plenty of busts at the top of the draft (like Reggie Bush, Larry Johnson, and Frank Gore), but let's ignore that for right now.

This year, I actually seem pretty pleased at the idea of getting a low pick, as it seems that there will be guys with fewer question marks and plenty of upside available with the 9th - 16th picks...guys like:

Willie Parker - the touchdowns didn't come in 2007, but he would have lead the league in rushing yards had an injury not cost him the last couple of games of the season. The lack of touchdowns was probably an aberration, and there's no reason not to expect him to put up great numbers all around.

Clinton Portis - He was healthy all year in 2007 and showed that Ladell Betts is not a threat to his production. He was the 4th highest scoring RB in most leagues last year and is a clear first round fantasy pick again.

Marion Barber - Julius Jones is gone, but will Dallas take a RB in the first couple of rounds this year? Obviously we'll all be watching this closely, but if Dallas doesn't bring in someone else to share carries with Barber, he should be a top 5 or top 8 RB in 2008 (even with Jones, he was the 6th highest scoring RB in 2007).

Marshawn Lynch - love this guy in 2008. Will he suffer a sophomore slump or take his game to the next level? I think the latter, especially running behind a VERY good Bills OL.

Willis McGahee - not sexy, but he would be a solid pick at the top of the 2nd round.

Frank Gore - a great talent in a crappy offense. He may not drop towards th ebottom of the first round, but he would be a great pick if he fell, as the 9ers offense can only get better.

Larry Johnson - not sure what to make of him. I think LJ would be one of the riskier RB's drafted in the first round, but if the Chiefs get serious about improving the OLine in April's draft, he could return to stud-status.

You take these guys, and add Moss (when was the last time the number 1 WR was so obvious?) and Tom Brady to the mix of possible picks, and for the first time in a while, I'm actually feeling pretty excited about the idea of drafting low this year.

 
I don't think Lynch or Gore will slip that far.
I'll agree with you on Gore (and I said as much in my OP), but Lynch has been taken at the turn in the early mock drafts that I've seen...it's possible he shoots up to about the number 6th or 7th RB taken by the time August rolls around (and that wouldn't surprise me at all), but for now he's generally being taken after Portis, Parker and Larry Johnson.In start-up dynasty drafts though, yeah, Lynch is probably higher than these guys I just mentioned.In any event, I foresee not pulling my hair as much as I have in the recent past if I'm drafting at the bottom this year.
 
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I don't think Lynch or Gore will slip that far.
I'll agree with you on Gore (and I said as much in my OP), but Lynch has been taken at the turn in the early mock drafts that I've seen...it's possible he shoots up to about the number 6th or 7th RB taken by the time August rolls around (and that wouldn't surprise me at all), but for now he's generally being taken after Portis, Parker and Larry Johnson.

In start-up dynasty drafts though, yeah, Lynch is probably higher than these guys I just mentioned.

In any event, I foresee not pulling my hair as much as I have in the recent past if I'm drafting at the bottom this year.
Interesting...I would take Lynch before any of those three. Especially FWP.
 
Rodeojones said:
faux_bear said:
Rodeojones said:
I don't think Lynch or Gore will slip that far.
I'll agree with you on Gore (and I said as much in my OP), but Lynch has been taken at the turn in the early mock drafts that I've seen...it's possible he shoots up to about the number 6th or 7th RB taken by the time August rolls around (and that wouldn't surprise me at all), but for now he's generally being taken after Portis, Parker and Larry Johnson.

In start-up dynasty drafts though, yeah, Lynch is probably higher than these guys I just mentioned.

In any event, I foresee not pulling my hair as much as I have in the recent past if I'm drafting at the bottom this year.
Interesting...I would take Lynch before any of those three. Especially FWP.
I dunno. Pitt has issues like everybody else, but their ability to take those safetys out of the box (unlike Buffalo IMO) isn't one of them. I think they can fix their O Line concerns easier than the Bills can their QB~WR situation.
 
Not too veer too far off course, bu it's never a good year to draft late in serpentine drafts. Pick #1 - three picks in the top 25(1,24,25). I know the season doesn't end after the draft, but in nine years, I have NEVER missed the championship game when I've picked in the top three. IN a 12 tm league, you can have three ELITE players after three rounds. Not so at 12.

 
Not too veer too far off course, bu it's never a good year to draft late in serpentine drafts. Pick #1 - three picks in the top 25(1,24,25). I know the season doesn't end after the draft, but in nine years, I have NEVER missed the championship game when I've picked in the top three. IN a 12 tm league, you can have three ELITE players after three rounds. Not so at 12.
Sure you can.
 

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