EBF
Footballguy
I had initially planned to keep these rankings under wraps until after I had completed some of my money league drafts. Then I realized something: there isn't a single player in this class that I'd deeply regret missing out on. So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care. Chances are they already have their own preference about this year's players and, more importantly, I won't be upset if they snipe me in our drafts. It just means someone else will fall to my pick. The discussion is half the fun anyway, so what the Hell? Here goes...
General Thoughts:
This class is a great, giant ball of mediocrity. Inevitably some of these players will emerge out relative obscurity and become valuable commodities ala MJD and Greg Jennings. Yet I don't see a single player in this group who strikes me as a surefire 100% lock for success. There's no Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, or Reggie Bush in this class. There isn't a single freak of nature. What you have is a huge group of prospects who fall somewhere under the large umbrella of "good, but not great."
FYI, these rankings are for PPR leagues.
Tier One
1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Positives: Stewart is a powerful runner with a low center of gravity and enough hip swerve to make some nifty runs. He doesn't make a lot of "wow" plays like Reggie Bush or Adrian Peterson, but he does just about everything competently. He has the best package of physical skills of any RB in this class with elite strength, mid 4.4 speed, and good overall combine numbers.
Negatives: A little bit of a plodder. Right on the fence between ideal size and being too bulky. Will take some big hits and may be the type of back who is constantly on the injured list. Recently underwent surgery for a toe injury, which may or may not cause any lasting effects.
Overall: I expect Stewart to be a productive NFL starter when healthy. He should at least be a RB2 for FF purposes and if he lands on a good team then he could have a top 5 type impact. However, he is a notch below the truly elite prospects of recent years and he should not be viewed as a slam dunk stud. The injury issues are a concern and I have a nagging hunch that he might be banged up a lot at the pro level. I would not mortgage the farm to acquire him, but if I had the 1.01 pick he would probably be my choice at this point in time.
NFL Comparison: Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Positives: Mendenhall is built like a rock with a top notch combination of size, speed, and strength. He is solid overall athlete who could start in almost any system. He just looks like an NFL RB. I knew from the first time I saw him play this year that he would be a first round pick. I think he will have excellent durability at the next level, as his frame is ideally proportioned for the position. Very sturdy build.
Negatives: Not as shifty as you look for. More of a no-nonsense North-South runner than a guy who will shake and bake. A little bit stiff in the hips, he doesn't flash the "wiggle" of a guy like Westbrook or Bush. Good at everything, yet elite at nothing.
Overall: I think Mendenhall is a very safe bet to become a decent NFL player. He is just a good, solid RB prospect who should step in and start for a team from day done. If he lands in a good spot on draft day then he will warrant consideration at the 1.01. The gap between him and Stewart is VERY narrow in my mind. I might even prefer Mendenhall with a gun to my head since he seems like the safer pick. At the same time, there's a little bit of Thomas Jones/Julius Jones risk if he lands on a team with a weak supporting cast. He's likely not exceptional enough to transcend a bad situation. IMO, his success will always mirror his supporting cast.
NFL Comparison: Joseph Addai, Julius Jones
3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Positives: Electric speed and acceleration. Has the most upside of any RB in this class. The way he can rocket past people is exciting. And there's also no overlooking the fact that he dominated the country's most athletic conference for years. He has a home run dimension that will excite NFL teams. If his skills translate seamlessly, he will be very good.
Negatives: Built like a WR with a tall, skinny V-shaped frame. Doesn't show a lot of power, which makes sense given his lack of lower body bulk. Doesn't flash a lot of shiftiness. Straight line runner.
Overall: I want to like this guy. I really do. And yet there's just no getting around his funky body type and his abnormal running style. When I look at RB prospects, I look for squatty guys who have loose hips to change direction and explode out of their cuts. McFadden has explosiveness, but he is not shifty or powerful. Running over average SEC linebackers is one thing, but it's hard for me to imagine him having the same success against monsters like Jon Vilma, Kirk Morrison, and Patrick Willis. In the end, I just don't think he's cut from the same cloth as the elite pro runners. He will probably show flashes of greatness and there's a chance he could become an all-world type, yet I view him as a much bigger risk than his staggering hype would lead you to believe. I think he's more sizzle than steak at the pro level.
NFL Comparison: A cross between Laurence Maroney and Jerious Norwood
Tier Two
4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.
Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.
NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe
Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.
5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Positives: Has the best hips, lower body, and running style of any runner available this year. VERY fluid. Runs on a swivel and has the low center of gravity and smooth change of direction you dream of. Good, but not great speed. Stocky, sturdy build. Looks and runs like a RB should.
Negatives: Good thickness for his size, but he's short and light compared to the average NFL starting RB. There aren't many elite RBs who weigh under 200 pounds. Though he has good timed speed and quickness, I wouldn't really call him explosive. He's more of a power back than a home run guy.
Overall: Rice is a difficult prospect to gauge. On the one hand, he has a very sturdy frame and the best running style of any RB in the entire class. If he were 5'10" and 215 then he would be an elite prospect. Therein lies the rub. There aren't many successful 200 pound power backs in the NFL. He is a little guy and he may get engulfed by the bigger defenders in the league. I wouldn't underestimate him, yet he reminds me of Ryan Moats, another smallish RB who has thus far failed to live up to my lofty expectations for him. A good player who comes with some risk.
NFL Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw, Brian Westbrook, Ryan Moats, Frank Gore
6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Positives: King-sized WR with great hands. Smooth athlete who glides on the field. He is not a burner, but I think the questions about his speed are misguided. He is plenty fast to make the transition. I'd peg him as a mid 4.4 guy.
Negatives: Not truly explosive before or after the catch. Like a lot of taller receivers, he might struggle to get separation on short and intermediate routes. Solid prospect, but is he elite? His game doesn't really scream superstar and he may be better suited to a WR2 role at the next level.
Overall: A good, but not great WR prospect who should develop into a solid pro player, but may never become a stud.
NFL Comparison: Javon Walker, Braylon Edwards
7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Positives: Big receiver who takes advantage of his size. Quicker than you would expect. Pretty fluid and fast. Very productive in college. A terror in the red zone who can dominate defenders on jump ball throws.
Negatives: Some of these taller receivers have been fool's gold in the past. While they look good on paper, they often lack the quickness needed to separate from pro defensive backs. Hardy may struggle to find room against the freakishly fast DBs in the NFL.
Overall: A good all-around WR worthy of a first round selection. Has the raw tools to be productive if he maximizes his ability and stays out of trouble.
NFL Comparison: Marques Colston
Tier Three
8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Positives: Explosive. At his best, he looks like the real deal. He can plant his foot in the ground and change directions instantly. He has a pretty good build for the position, with most of his weight concentrated in his thighs. He had silly YPC averages in college. Has enough sustained speed to break long runs.
Negatives: Doesn't break tackles. A bit of an enigma. It's almost like there were two different guys named Felix Jones running the ball for Arkansas last year. One of them was a beast, but the other one...not so much.
Overall: A boom-or-bust player who could be great or a total flop. In the end though, he has a good overall package of skills and I think he makes a worthwhile gamble once the top receivers are off the board.
9. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Positives: Very good timed speed. Big time recruit of high school. Though he isn't the hugest or most imposing receiver on the planet, he is physically in the mold of guys like Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt. Fluid athlete who should be a good route runner in the NFL.
Negatives: Productive, but not a true star in college. Not a flashy player who dominates physically.
Overall: Quietly a very solid prospect who could develop into a good pro wideout. He is probably closer to a WR2 than a WR1 at the next level, but if he lands in a good situation then he's capable of putting up numbers.
NFL Comparison: A little bit like Greg Jennings
10. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Positives: Good college player who put up pretty big numbers. One of those guys who doesn't have any special physical qualities, but is just a natural football player. Can beat corners all over the field and make the difficult grab.
Negatives: Lacks elite physical qualities. More crafty than physically dominant.
Overall: Yet another guy who fits in with this year's theme of "good, but not great." Manningham doesn't jump out at you on paper, but he is a solid prospect capable of developing into a starting receiver in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Greg Jennings
11. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
Positives: Dynamite athlete with freakish physical gifts. 4.3 speed and superhuman strength for his size. He bench pressed 225 pounds 24 times at the combine, which is staggering when you consider that he only weighs 185 pounds. Short, but built tough with thick legs. Dangerous open field runner who can take it to the house any time he touches the ball.
Negatives: Like a lot of smaller receivers, he will struggle against physical corners. For all his speed and quickness, there's something slightly upright about his game. Wasn't overly productive as a receiver in college, although I'm willing to chalk that up to Tech's typically inept passing attack.
Overall: Royal immediately jumped out at me when I first watched highlights of him several months ago. His postseason ascent up the draft boards has been both satisfying and disappointing (he won't come cheap anymore). He will get picked in the top 70 in April and while he may never be more than a mid-level WR2 for NFL purposes, he is a solid prospect who should help an NFL team win.
NFL Comparison: Laveranues Coles
12. Desean Jackson, WR, California
Positives: Electric speed. Shifty in the open field. Can take short throws and turn them into long gains. Good hand-eye coordination and is more than just a return man.
Negatives: Very small for the position, to the point where you wonder if he isn't destined to be a slot guy like Roscoe Parrish. He's not as good as Santana Moss was, and Santana Moss is only a fringe top 20 WR in the NFL.
Overall: A good football player who should have a long and productive career, Jackson is a guy who probably offers more NFL than FF value. He will be a first round pick, but his slight frame makes him a risky FF proposisiton.
NFL Comparison: Somewhere between Santana Moss and Roscoe Parrish
Tier Four
13. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
Posititives: Does everything pretty well. Pretty shifty. Pretty powerful. A versatile talent who could step in and probably perform pretty well in a starting role right off the bat. Was almost a one-man offense at times in his college career.
Negatives: Not special in any way. He is good at everything, and great at nothing.
Overall: Choice is a sneaky RB prospect who could end up making a bigger FF impact than expected. Though he lacks the special qualities to demand a starting role, he's the type of player who could make the most of an opportunity. He will be a quality pick if he lands on a team that gives him a chance to start, but he will be a pretty mediocre option if he gets stuck behind a young starter.
NFL Comparison: Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore
14. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Positives: Though he has a somewhat gangly build, he is capable of making quick cuts and changing directions. Looks tall during games, but he has strong thighs. Lots of people compare McFadden to Peterson, but Smith is actually closer to ADP when you look at body type and running style. Dominated his competition.
Negatives: Looks tall and is a long-strider. Though he has quick feet and very good long speed, he isn't explosive.
Overall: One of the true enigmas in this class. I was initially very lukewarm on his prospects, yet he's making a late surge up my board to the point where I would at least consider him inside the top 10 if I needed RB help. He has one of the highest ceilings of the lesser backs in this draft since he has enough size to be an every down guy. Don't bank on him succeeding, but he could pay off huge if you roll the dice on him. Big time boom-or-bust pick.
NFL Comparison: There's no one out there who runs quite like him.
15. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Positives: Explosive speed with good overall athletic ability. Came on strong down the stretch last year and had some monster games where he looked like a dominant force. He is a slippery back with a good running style that should translate pretty well to the next level.
Undersized: Light with a thin frame. Lacks power. Unless he can bulk up, he may never amount to more than a change of pace back.
Overall: Charles has a lot of athletic ability and upside, but he looks like he might end up being more of a change of pace guy than a true starter at the NFL level. So while I think he has the potential to become one of the FF steals from this class, I also think there's a big chance that he'll never be more than a backup or RBBC type. Worth considering as early as 9-10, but this is where I have him slotted for now.
NFL Comparison: Tatum Bell, Clinton Portis
16. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Positives: Tall with good hands. Will make some ridiculous catches. Much more fluid than you would expect.
Negatives: Long strider who lacks quickness off the ball. While he'll make some great plays, I think he will struggle to consistently gain separation from NFL DB's. He is neither explosive nor quick out of breaks.
Overall: This might be an overly pessimistic view of Sweed's prospects, but he looks a little like fool's gold to me. He has some upside and he's capable of proving me wrong, but I don't have a rosy outlook for his FF future.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Braylon Edwards
17. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Positives: Looks the part. Big guy with the necessary arm strength. Good intangibles and leadership qualities.
Negatives: Known for inconsistent decisions. Threw quite a few interceptions in college.
NFL Comparison: Drew Bledsoe
Tier Five
18. Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Positives: Quick. Plays faster than his timed speed. Can make acrobatic catches. Had a very strong showing at the Senior Bowl, where he routinely beat coverage from some of the better corners in the country.
Negatives: A little bit thin. Generally has good hands, but will drop a clutch catch here and there. Not a player who physically dominates the opposition.
Overall: A bit of a sleeper, Hawkins could develop into a productive second WR at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Santonio Holmes
19. Keenan Burton, WR, Kentucky
Positives: Explosive. Good playing speed and toughness. Makes plays after the catch. Can make the difficult reception. Good production in college.
Negatives: A little bit thin.
Overall: Burton is a quality sleeper who could emerge from this class and become a productive WR2. Are you sensing a pattern here?
NFL Comparison: TJ Houshmandzadeh
20. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
Positives: Very fast. Explosive quickness. Good hands.
Negatives: A little on the small side. Weak.
Overall: Avery is cut from the same cloth as Desean Jackson and Eddie Royal. He is interesting player who should be a high draft pick, but like the aforementioned two guys, he's probably more of a WR2 or slot guy than a WR1 at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Santana Moss
21. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Positives: Good size and strength. Versatile receiver who should grow into a starting role at the next level.
Negatives: Doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well. He was a major recruit for LSU, but he never really became a star in college. There aren't any glaring holes in his game, yet he's a tough player to get excited about.
Overall: Another talented receiver with starting potential, Doucet should eventually become a contributor for an NFL team. But I view him more as a 800-900 yard type than a guy who is going to dominate. He will have to land in the perfect situation to become a top 20 type.
NFL Comparison: Arnaz Battle
22. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Positives: Immensely productive. Not a guy who jumps off the screen at you, but he's a good football player. Pretty good size and strength.
Negatives: Not a special athlete. Speed and quickness are merely adequate. More of a "gamer" than a flashy player.
Overall: A good possession WR who will probably never be a great FF WR. Limited upside here.
NFL Comparison: James Jones
23. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
Positives: Video game speed with very good overall athletic ability. Low center of gravity and adequate quickness.
Negatives: Undersized. Lacks the bulk needed to break tackles and gain tough yards.
Overall: A workout warrior who probably won't make a major impact at the next level. There's some upside here given his workout numbers and his draft hype, but I'm pretty lukewarm on his potential.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Brian Westbrook
24. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Positives: Big guy with good power and quick feet. He can make nice cuts and was a solid performer at the Senior Bowl. Not a burner, but fast enough for the job.
Negatives: Nor a truly flashy player. Not an explosive athlete. Tall with long legs.
Overall: Forte is a good football player, but he lacks the physical upside to become a starter in the NFL. He should be viewed as a backup who will be a competent spot starter for the team that drafts him.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Deuce McAllister
Bubble Boys
QB Brian Brohm, Louisville
QB Chad Henne, Michigan
RB Ryan Torain, Arizona State
RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
- Why do I have the QBs so low? Simple. I don't believe in using high rookie picks on QBs in all but the most extreme cases. Why would I use my 1.08 on a risky proposition like Matt Ryan when I could just trade it for Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub, two guys who have already had success at the NFL level? I don't think you're getting great bang for your buck if you're taking a QB in the top 15. That said, you can definitely make a case for Henne and Brohm somewhere in the 10-20 range. My low QB rankings are a matter of personal preference. I feel it's easier to scout WRs and RBs, so that's where I typically place my bets.
- No TEs? Aside from Fred Davis, I didn't get a chance to see many of these guys play on a regular basis, so I am just now getting caught up. If one or two of these catches my eye then he could move somewhere into the top 24. But my attitude towards TEs is similar to my attitude towards QBs. They don't usually make a lot of sense in the top 20 rookie picks from a risk/reward standpoint unless it's a Winslow type player. A good starting TE is cheap to trade for in an FF league.
- The gaps between the tiers aren't that huge after the top 6-7 guys are gone. I wouldn't call you crazy if you said you like Early Doucet and Lavelle Hawkins more than Eddie Royal and Andre Caldwell. It's a very, very slim value gap between those guys. Like I said, there are a lot of "good, but not great" types out there this year.
- Steve Slaton? Decent player, but too thin to be a workhorse. How the mighty have fallen.
- My picks this year aren't very controversial. I don't see a lot of great sleeper talents out there who make me want to shake up my rankings. There are a couple guys out there who I am keeping an eye on, but as of now they don't belong on this list. Some of my "sleepers" like Eddie Royal and Devin Thomas have been outed after blowing up in the postseason.
General Thoughts:
This class is a great, giant ball of mediocrity. Inevitably some of these players will emerge out relative obscurity and become valuable commodities ala MJD and Greg Jennings. Yet I don't see a single player in this group who strikes me as a surefire 100% lock for success. There's no Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, or Reggie Bush in this class. There isn't a single freak of nature. What you have is a huge group of prospects who fall somewhere under the large umbrella of "good, but not great."
FYI, these rankings are for PPR leagues.
Tier One
1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Positives: Stewart is a powerful runner with a low center of gravity and enough hip swerve to make some nifty runs. He doesn't make a lot of "wow" plays like Reggie Bush or Adrian Peterson, but he does just about everything competently. He has the best package of physical skills of any RB in this class with elite strength, mid 4.4 speed, and good overall combine numbers.
Negatives: A little bit of a plodder. Right on the fence between ideal size and being too bulky. Will take some big hits and may be the type of back who is constantly on the injured list. Recently underwent surgery for a toe injury, which may or may not cause any lasting effects.
Overall: I expect Stewart to be a productive NFL starter when healthy. He should at least be a RB2 for FF purposes and if he lands on a good team then he could have a top 5 type impact. However, he is a notch below the truly elite prospects of recent years and he should not be viewed as a slam dunk stud. The injury issues are a concern and I have a nagging hunch that he might be banged up a lot at the pro level. I would not mortgage the farm to acquire him, but if I had the 1.01 pick he would probably be my choice at this point in time.
NFL Comparison: Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor
2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Positives: Mendenhall is built like a rock with a top notch combination of size, speed, and strength. He is solid overall athlete who could start in almost any system. He just looks like an NFL RB. I knew from the first time I saw him play this year that he would be a first round pick. I think he will have excellent durability at the next level, as his frame is ideally proportioned for the position. Very sturdy build.
Negatives: Not as shifty as you look for. More of a no-nonsense North-South runner than a guy who will shake and bake. A little bit stiff in the hips, he doesn't flash the "wiggle" of a guy like Westbrook or Bush. Good at everything, yet elite at nothing.
Overall: I think Mendenhall is a very safe bet to become a decent NFL player. He is just a good, solid RB prospect who should step in and start for a team from day done. If he lands in a good spot on draft day then he will warrant consideration at the 1.01. The gap between him and Stewart is VERY narrow in my mind. I might even prefer Mendenhall with a gun to my head since he seems like the safer pick. At the same time, there's a little bit of Thomas Jones/Julius Jones risk if he lands on a team with a weak supporting cast. He's likely not exceptional enough to transcend a bad situation. IMO, his success will always mirror his supporting cast.
NFL Comparison: Joseph Addai, Julius Jones
3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Positives: Electric speed and acceleration. Has the most upside of any RB in this class. The way he can rocket past people is exciting. And there's also no overlooking the fact that he dominated the country's most athletic conference for years. He has a home run dimension that will excite NFL teams. If his skills translate seamlessly, he will be very good.
Negatives: Built like a WR with a tall, skinny V-shaped frame. Doesn't show a lot of power, which makes sense given his lack of lower body bulk. Doesn't flash a lot of shiftiness. Straight line runner.
Overall: I want to like this guy. I really do. And yet there's just no getting around his funky body type and his abnormal running style. When I look at RB prospects, I look for squatty guys who have loose hips to change direction and explode out of their cuts. McFadden has explosiveness, but he is not shifty or powerful. Running over average SEC linebackers is one thing, but it's hard for me to imagine him having the same success against monsters like Jon Vilma, Kirk Morrison, and Patrick Willis. In the end, I just don't think he's cut from the same cloth as the elite pro runners. He will probably show flashes of greatness and there's a chance he could become an all-world type, yet I view him as a much bigger risk than his staggering hype would lead you to believe. I think he's more sizzle than steak at the pro level.
NFL Comparison: A cross between Laurence Maroney and Jerious Norwood
Tier Two
4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.
Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.
NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe
Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.
5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Positives: Has the best hips, lower body, and running style of any runner available this year. VERY fluid. Runs on a swivel and has the low center of gravity and smooth change of direction you dream of. Good, but not great speed. Stocky, sturdy build. Looks and runs like a RB should.
Negatives: Good thickness for his size, but he's short and light compared to the average NFL starting RB. There aren't many elite RBs who weigh under 200 pounds. Though he has good timed speed and quickness, I wouldn't really call him explosive. He's more of a power back than a home run guy.
Overall: Rice is a difficult prospect to gauge. On the one hand, he has a very sturdy frame and the best running style of any RB in the entire class. If he were 5'10" and 215 then he would be an elite prospect. Therein lies the rub. There aren't many successful 200 pound power backs in the NFL. He is a little guy and he may get engulfed by the bigger defenders in the league. I wouldn't underestimate him, yet he reminds me of Ryan Moats, another smallish RB who has thus far failed to live up to my lofty expectations for him. A good player who comes with some risk.
NFL Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw, Brian Westbrook, Ryan Moats, Frank Gore
6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Positives: King-sized WR with great hands. Smooth athlete who glides on the field. He is not a burner, but I think the questions about his speed are misguided. He is plenty fast to make the transition. I'd peg him as a mid 4.4 guy.
Negatives: Not truly explosive before or after the catch. Like a lot of taller receivers, he might struggle to get separation on short and intermediate routes. Solid prospect, but is he elite? His game doesn't really scream superstar and he may be better suited to a WR2 role at the next level.
Overall: A good, but not great WR prospect who should develop into a solid pro player, but may never become a stud.
NFL Comparison: Javon Walker, Braylon Edwards
7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Positives: Big receiver who takes advantage of his size. Quicker than you would expect. Pretty fluid and fast. Very productive in college. A terror in the red zone who can dominate defenders on jump ball throws.
Negatives: Some of these taller receivers have been fool's gold in the past. While they look good on paper, they often lack the quickness needed to separate from pro defensive backs. Hardy may struggle to find room against the freakishly fast DBs in the NFL.
Overall: A good all-around WR worthy of a first round selection. Has the raw tools to be productive if he maximizes his ability and stays out of trouble.
NFL Comparison: Marques Colston
Tier Three
8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Positives: Explosive. At his best, he looks like the real deal. He can plant his foot in the ground and change directions instantly. He has a pretty good build for the position, with most of his weight concentrated in his thighs. He had silly YPC averages in college. Has enough sustained speed to break long runs.
Negatives: Doesn't break tackles. A bit of an enigma. It's almost like there were two different guys named Felix Jones running the ball for Arkansas last year. One of them was a beast, but the other one...not so much.
Overall: A boom-or-bust player who could be great or a total flop. In the end though, he has a good overall package of skills and I think he makes a worthwhile gamble once the top receivers are off the board.
9. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Positives: Very good timed speed. Big time recruit of high school. Though he isn't the hugest or most imposing receiver on the planet, he is physically in the mold of guys like Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt. Fluid athlete who should be a good route runner in the NFL.
Negatives: Productive, but not a true star in college. Not a flashy player who dominates physically.
Overall: Quietly a very solid prospect who could develop into a good pro wideout. He is probably closer to a WR2 than a WR1 at the next level, but if he lands in a good situation then he's capable of putting up numbers.
NFL Comparison: A little bit like Greg Jennings
10. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Positives: Good college player who put up pretty big numbers. One of those guys who doesn't have any special physical qualities, but is just a natural football player. Can beat corners all over the field and make the difficult grab.
Negatives: Lacks elite physical qualities. More crafty than physically dominant.
Overall: Yet another guy who fits in with this year's theme of "good, but not great." Manningham doesn't jump out at you on paper, but he is a solid prospect capable of developing into a starting receiver in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Greg Jennings
11. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
Positives: Dynamite athlete with freakish physical gifts. 4.3 speed and superhuman strength for his size. He bench pressed 225 pounds 24 times at the combine, which is staggering when you consider that he only weighs 185 pounds. Short, but built tough with thick legs. Dangerous open field runner who can take it to the house any time he touches the ball.
Negatives: Like a lot of smaller receivers, he will struggle against physical corners. For all his speed and quickness, there's something slightly upright about his game. Wasn't overly productive as a receiver in college, although I'm willing to chalk that up to Tech's typically inept passing attack.
Overall: Royal immediately jumped out at me when I first watched highlights of him several months ago. His postseason ascent up the draft boards has been both satisfying and disappointing (he won't come cheap anymore). He will get picked in the top 70 in April and while he may never be more than a mid-level WR2 for NFL purposes, he is a solid prospect who should help an NFL team win.
NFL Comparison: Laveranues Coles
12. Desean Jackson, WR, California
Positives: Electric speed. Shifty in the open field. Can take short throws and turn them into long gains. Good hand-eye coordination and is more than just a return man.
Negatives: Very small for the position, to the point where you wonder if he isn't destined to be a slot guy like Roscoe Parrish. He's not as good as Santana Moss was, and Santana Moss is only a fringe top 20 WR in the NFL.
Overall: A good football player who should have a long and productive career, Jackson is a guy who probably offers more NFL than FF value. He will be a first round pick, but his slight frame makes him a risky FF proposisiton.
NFL Comparison: Somewhere between Santana Moss and Roscoe Parrish
Tier Four
13. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
Posititives: Does everything pretty well. Pretty shifty. Pretty powerful. A versatile talent who could step in and probably perform pretty well in a starting role right off the bat. Was almost a one-man offense at times in his college career.
Negatives: Not special in any way. He is good at everything, and great at nothing.
Overall: Choice is a sneaky RB prospect who could end up making a bigger FF impact than expected. Though he lacks the special qualities to demand a starting role, he's the type of player who could make the most of an opportunity. He will be a quality pick if he lands on a team that gives him a chance to start, but he will be a pretty mediocre option if he gets stuck behind a young starter.
NFL Comparison: Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore
14. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
Positives: Though he has a somewhat gangly build, he is capable of making quick cuts and changing directions. Looks tall during games, but he has strong thighs. Lots of people compare McFadden to Peterson, but Smith is actually closer to ADP when you look at body type and running style. Dominated his competition.
Negatives: Looks tall and is a long-strider. Though he has quick feet and very good long speed, he isn't explosive.
Overall: One of the true enigmas in this class. I was initially very lukewarm on his prospects, yet he's making a late surge up my board to the point where I would at least consider him inside the top 10 if I needed RB help. He has one of the highest ceilings of the lesser backs in this draft since he has enough size to be an every down guy. Don't bank on him succeeding, but he could pay off huge if you roll the dice on him. Big time boom-or-bust pick.
NFL Comparison: There's no one out there who runs quite like him.
15. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Positives: Explosive speed with good overall athletic ability. Came on strong down the stretch last year and had some monster games where he looked like a dominant force. He is a slippery back with a good running style that should translate pretty well to the next level.
Undersized: Light with a thin frame. Lacks power. Unless he can bulk up, he may never amount to more than a change of pace back.
Overall: Charles has a lot of athletic ability and upside, but he looks like he might end up being more of a change of pace guy than a true starter at the NFL level. So while I think he has the potential to become one of the FF steals from this class, I also think there's a big chance that he'll never be more than a backup or RBBC type. Worth considering as early as 9-10, but this is where I have him slotted for now.
NFL Comparison: Tatum Bell, Clinton Portis
16. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Positives: Tall with good hands. Will make some ridiculous catches. Much more fluid than you would expect.
Negatives: Long strider who lacks quickness off the ball. While he'll make some great plays, I think he will struggle to consistently gain separation from NFL DB's. He is neither explosive nor quick out of breaks.
Overall: This might be an overly pessimistic view of Sweed's prospects, but he looks a little like fool's gold to me. He has some upside and he's capable of proving me wrong, but I don't have a rosy outlook for his FF future.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Braylon Edwards
17. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Positives: Looks the part. Big guy with the necessary arm strength. Good intangibles and leadership qualities.
Negatives: Known for inconsistent decisions. Threw quite a few interceptions in college.
NFL Comparison: Drew Bledsoe
Tier Five
18. Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California
Positives: Quick. Plays faster than his timed speed. Can make acrobatic catches. Had a very strong showing at the Senior Bowl, where he routinely beat coverage from some of the better corners in the country.
Negatives: A little bit thin. Generally has good hands, but will drop a clutch catch here and there. Not a player who physically dominates the opposition.
Overall: A bit of a sleeper, Hawkins could develop into a productive second WR at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Santonio Holmes
19. Keenan Burton, WR, Kentucky
Positives: Explosive. Good playing speed and toughness. Makes plays after the catch. Can make the difficult reception. Good production in college.
Negatives: A little bit thin.
Overall: Burton is a quality sleeper who could emerge from this class and become a productive WR2. Are you sensing a pattern here?
NFL Comparison: TJ Houshmandzadeh
20. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
Positives: Very fast. Explosive quickness. Good hands.
Negatives: A little on the small side. Weak.
Overall: Avery is cut from the same cloth as Desean Jackson and Eddie Royal. He is interesting player who should be a high draft pick, but like the aforementioned two guys, he's probably more of a WR2 or slot guy than a WR1 at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Santana Moss
21. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Positives: Good size and strength. Versatile receiver who should grow into a starting role at the next level.
Negatives: Doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well. He was a major recruit for LSU, but he never really became a star in college. There aren't any glaring holes in his game, yet he's a tough player to get excited about.
Overall: Another talented receiver with starting potential, Doucet should eventually become a contributor for an NFL team. But I view him more as a 800-900 yard type than a guy who is going to dominate. He will have to land in the perfect situation to become a top 20 type.
NFL Comparison: Arnaz Battle
22. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
Positives: Immensely productive. Not a guy who jumps off the screen at you, but he's a good football player. Pretty good size and strength.
Negatives: Not a special athlete. Speed and quickness are merely adequate. More of a "gamer" than a flashy player.
Overall: A good possession WR who will probably never be a great FF WR. Limited upside here.
NFL Comparison: James Jones
23. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
Positives: Video game speed with very good overall athletic ability. Low center of gravity and adequate quickness.
Negatives: Undersized. Lacks the bulk needed to break tackles and gain tough yards.
Overall: A workout warrior who probably won't make a major impact at the next level. There's some upside here given his workout numbers and his draft hype, but I'm pretty lukewarm on his potential.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Brian Westbrook
24. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Positives: Big guy with good power and quick feet. He can make nice cuts and was a solid performer at the Senior Bowl. Not a burner, but fast enough for the job.
Negatives: Nor a truly flashy player. Not an explosive athlete. Tall with long legs.
Overall: Forte is a good football player, but he lacks the physical upside to become a starter in the NFL. He should be viewed as a backup who will be a competent spot starter for the team that drafts him.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Deuce McAllister
Bubble Boys
QB Brian Brohm, Louisville
QB Chad Henne, Michigan
RB Ryan Torain, Arizona State
RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
- Why do I have the QBs so low? Simple. I don't believe in using high rookie picks on QBs in all but the most extreme cases. Why would I use my 1.08 on a risky proposition like Matt Ryan when I could just trade it for Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub, two guys who have already had success at the NFL level? I don't think you're getting great bang for your buck if you're taking a QB in the top 15. That said, you can definitely make a case for Henne and Brohm somewhere in the 10-20 range. My low QB rankings are a matter of personal preference. I feel it's easier to scout WRs and RBs, so that's where I typically place my bets.
- No TEs? Aside from Fred Davis, I didn't get a chance to see many of these guys play on a regular basis, so I am just now getting caught up. If one or two of these catches my eye then he could move somewhere into the top 24. But my attitude towards TEs is similar to my attitude towards QBs. They don't usually make a lot of sense in the top 20 rookie picks from a risk/reward standpoint unless it's a Winslow type player. A good starting TE is cheap to trade for in an FF league.
- The gaps between the tiers aren't that huge after the top 6-7 guys are gone. I wouldn't call you crazy if you said you like Early Doucet and Lavelle Hawkins more than Eddie Royal and Andre Caldwell. It's a very, very slim value gap between those guys. Like I said, there are a lot of "good, but not great" types out there this year.
- Steve Slaton? Decent player, but too thin to be a workhorse. How the mighty have fallen.
- My picks this year aren't very controversial. I don't see a lot of great sleeper talents out there who make me want to shake up my rankings. There are a couple guys out there who I am keeping an eye on, but as of now they don't belong on this list. Some of my "sleepers" like Eddie Royal and Devin Thomas have been outed after blowing up in the postseason.
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm strictly talking FF impact here. Since the return element has no bearing on Royal's FF impact, I don't think it's necessary to compare him to a return man. People here want to know what to expect from these players as FF performers. I think the best NFL comparison for Royal is Coles. So that's the comparison I made. No more explanation is necessary. 
I'm strictly talking FF impact here. Since the return element has no bearing on Royal's FF impact, I don't think it's necessary to compare him to a return man. People here want to know what to expect from these players as FF performers. I think the best NFL comparison for Royal is Coles. So that's the comparison I made. No more explanation is necessary. 
Thanks GB
Great list, EBF. Nicely done as usual.
