I think Stewart has a lot more upside and I'm not seeing his floor any different then Lynch's. Curious as to what exactly seperates them in terms of probability of becoming a bust? Outside of Lynch already having a pretty decent season on a weak team.
Lynch was a safer pick coming out. Better college career as a whole. Durability issues didn't seem as serious. Seemed to have ideal instincts and a good running style for the pro game. A lot of it is just my gut call, which is why I said "I think..." I never thought Lynch would be a bust. I see bigger bust risk with Stewart. I can't really quantify this. It's an opinion.
Anyways, if you are the 4th rated RB in a draft class you could always fall to the 2nd round.
Yes, you could, if you're a 2nd round caliber prospect. Guys with Lynch's combination of size, production, football skills, and pedigree don't slip into the 2nd round. EVERYONE had him as a first round talent, which had nothing to do with the depth in his class and everything to do with his talent IMO.
Especially with a strong group of guys behind you where teams could be patient and still get solid contribution from guys drafted late.
I don't think it happens that way. First round talents are drafted in the first round. 2006 had four first round talents, so four backs were drafted in the first round. 2007 had two first round talents, so two were drafted in the first round. This year has three or four first round talents, so three or four RBs will get drafted in the first round. Teams generally don't use this line of reasoning: "Well we need a RB badly and there's a first round guy available, so we'll let someone else take him and draft a third round guy instead." It would sort of be the FF equivalent of passing on Randy Moss in the first round because you know you can get Jerrich Cotchery in the fifth round. Teams generally don't think that way unless they absolutely fall in love with one of the lower tier guys.
If Buffalo didn't draft Lynch in the 1st round, they would have had to rely on Irons, B. Jackson, Leonard, etc...or Anthony Thomas. They further showed their desperation to shore up the RB position by burning a 4th round pick on Dwayne Wright. I think they would have been less likely to draft Lynch that high if they knew that they could get a Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, etc... in the 2nd round. Last years draft did not have those type of guys where you won't be punished that much for waiting.
There are any number of ways they could've shored up their RB spot.
They could've acquired Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Michael Turner, or several other veterans. They chose to take Lynch in the top 15 because they knew he was a solid first round talent who would step in and own that starting spot for them. No one put a gun to their head and made them draft a second round talent in the first round.
I just wanted to show that Lynch's college production was not close to elite.
Yea, you're right. Being the 2nd leading rusher in school history on just three seasons of work isn't elite production. Err...
Mendenhall and Stewart had much better production during their junior years as well I guess in your logic that doesn't mean they are any better.
They also each split time as sophomores and failed to crack 1,000 yards until their final season. Production is a factor to consider, but the question I ask myself is "did this guy take advantage of his opportunities?" and not "how many yards did this guy have?" Matt Forte and Kevin Smith are 2,000 yard rushers, but they are not elite pro prospects. You can't just look at yardage totals as a way to compare the talent level of prospects. It doesn't work like that.
I think a big part of that misunderstanding is how you view Charles. I think Charles' upside is unlimited. I see a little Frank Gore in him mentally. The type of person that doesn't know when it's time to get tired, so they just keep fighting and running. If he can keep his head on straight, pick up the playbook, and make some correct adjustments to the way he carries the football the sky is the limit. I think a lot of Charles' NFL value is dependant on how he interviewed and his fantasy value will be dependant on what kind of job the coaching staff does developing him.
I don't think you'll find a lot of draft pundits who will tell you that Charles is in the same class as Lynch.
Can you concede that if you take out Lynch and insert Charles or even somebody like Kevin Smith in last years draft, he's clearly the 2nd back off the board and possibly a 1st round pick based off need?
Well Charles is considered a top 50 type prospect anyway, so maybe he would've been RB2 last year. He would've been in the mix with guys like Kenny Irons and Chris Henry. But he sure as hell wouldn't have been a top 20 pick. He is closer to Tatum Bell and Julius Jones than Marshawn Lynch in terms of draft stock. A high second round type. I doubt Smith would've been a first round pick last year regardless of who else was on the board. He is a 2nd-4th round type prospect.
eterson------------------------------------McFadden------------------------------------LynchMendenhallJones------------------------------------Stewart------------------------------------CharlesBradshawRiceSlaton------------------------------------the rest of '07------------------------------------the rest of '08If I were to rank them on NFL potential
Lynch is a typical first round RB prospect. Good build. Good combine. Good career. Charles and Rice may end up being good pro runners, but there's no way their draft stock compares to Marshawn's. He would be a top 15-25 pick if he were eligible this year.
Lynch is a typical first round RB prospect. Good build. Good combine. Good career. Charles and Rice may end up being good pro runners, but there's no way their draft stock compares to Marshawn's. He would be a top 15-25 pick if he were eligible this year.
