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If you don't have one of the top 3 picks in Rook Draft (1 Viewer)

I just traded up for the 1.04 'cause I've got a guy that I like there as much as the top 3 and it was a little cheaper.

 
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I have the 1.4 and will not move up. Post NFL draft there is probably going to be a match of talent/situation which emerges that will either be a attractive to me or another owner wanting to trade for that spot. Also, while I think there is gap bewteen the top three and the rest of the field, I don't think it is a huge one.

 
Agreed on hoping I dont ever pick that high.

In any type of PPR league, I would be just as happy sticking at the mid to end of the 1st and grabbing WR's instead. Also think Forte, Choice, Johnson could end up being like Gore/Barber a few years back where the top 3 was Brown/Benson/Caddy with the top 3 this year. Great value was gotten late in the 1st. I would not pay the crazy prices to get up top. Usually it is better to wait. What would DeAngelo Williams cost these days. A guy that cost as much as the top 3 picks right now back when he was drafted. As pointed out here the overall success rate of the top 3 rookie picks is not a shoe in for anything but disappointment in most cases. Peterson types come along once every 5 years but the rookie bandwagon heats up every year and disappoints every year. Reggie Bush was the crazy one. At the time owners were trading LT plus to get Reggie. Now you can pick him up fairly cheap. Happens with most RB's. I remember Larry Johnson being traded for dirt squat in both of my dynasty leagues.

 
I have 1.06/1.07 in one league, I am staying put. Not worth the price to move up for a RB(already got Addai/Grant/Graham) and WR's are more valuable in this league anyways. Will stay put and take BPA.

 
gianmarco said:
Monty Burns said:
Smizzy said:
Felix Jones and Ray Rice make 4 & 5 workable...6 on is a crap shoot.
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That is my assessment also. So I traded Meachem and 1.06 for the 1.05. Being very deep at WR and a little "light" at RB made this an easy move for me.
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Ouch, I don't know if I like that at all.
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Well, my WR's are Roy Williams, B Marshall, S Moss, Ward, Bowe, Hackett, Berrian, Mason and Demetrious Williams. 12 team, 26 roster slot league, and again a little weak at RB, and seeing a crapshoot after 1.05. I'd certainly not do the trade if I was weak or average at WR, but in this case I felt it was worth it.
 
I really feel like Felix Jones or Ray Rice will be going to a great situation like Houston or Denver that will make the 1.4 golden. Even if one of them go to Detroit in the 2nd that would be a great place.

Places I would be happy to see a RB land as the owner of the 1.4 (in no particular order):

Houston

Denver

Detroit

Arizona

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Chicago

NY Jets

Oakland

Buccaneers

Tennessee

All these teams could use a new starting RB or at least get one ready for next year. Imagine all the possibilities.

 
Draft day is going to shake things up. Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles could potentially be drafted earlier than people expect. If those guys land in decent spots then you can bet that some owners are going to talk themselves into drafting them in the top 4-5 picks. You could also see someone like Kevin Smith or Matt Forte land in a good spot, which could boost them into that top 5 range. It happened last year with Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, and Michael Bush, who weren't any better.

I have a lot of high rookie picks this year: 1.02, 1.03 x2, 1.06, and 1.07. I'm not looking to move up in any of these leagues. I think there will be interesting guys on the board in all of these spots.

 
In my Zealots league I am very strong at QB and need RB help so I traded Vince Young and the 1.05 for the 1.03 I hope to be happy with which ever of the top three backs falls to the 3 hole.

 
In the league I have 1.02, I'm not trying to move the pick and have rejected some good offers.In my other leagues, I haven't tried moving up as it's cost-prohibitive.

Maroney=Speed said:
Or are you happy with pick 1.04 or 1.05 so on?
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4 and 5 - don't bother moving up unless it's cheap enough or you have great depth.after that, If you can get a good deal, by all means make it.
 
I traded around during pre-season last year and ended up lucky, getting the top three picks. I usually try to stock up on everyone else's picks, since my pick is usually too far down. I offered the #2 and #3 for Colston and was shot down. I am going to use them myself now, since I have cleared the roster space.

 
Demons said:
I traded around during pre-season last year and ended up lucky, getting the top three picks. I usually try to stock up on everyone else's picks, since my pick is usually too far down. I offered the #2 and #3 for Colston and was shot down. I am going to use them myself now, since I have cleared the roster space.
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You're crazy for offering that. That dude was even more off his rocker for declining it.
 
I have the 1.04 and will entertain offers to trade up, but I am not actively seeking to do so. I think that there is a bit of a gap between the top 3 and 4-5. What usually happens is that fantasy owners draft based upon situation and not talent. One of the top 3 will slip to the 4th spot because of that. I may have to wait an extra year or two for the payoff, but it will be well worth it.

 
Had the 1.4 and traded McNabb to swap with the 1.3 guy.

This was before Stewart's surgery :rolleyes:

Still, it's cap league, and McNabb was at a high number for 2 more years so I was glad to dump him since I have three other strong QBs at much lower numbers. Though the "top 3" may not be that way after draft day, I'm still glad I moved up.

 
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i, unfortunaletly have the 1.2. The guy at 1.3 has been asking about moving up 1 spot and has also inquired about the 1.1. I also received an offer for the 1.2 from another owner involving players and no picks in return.

At this point, unless the players offered are improved I would not move out of the round.

However, I am thin on picks.

Would you move from the 1.2 to the 1.3 to pick up a 2nd round pick? I dont think he will go for a swap of the 1.2 and 1.3 and give me the 1.7 (would do that in a heartbeat.)

 
B Maverick said:
Would you move from the 1.2 to the 1.3 to pick up a 2nd round pick? I dont think he will go for a swap of the 1.2 and 1.3 and give me the 1.7 (would do that in a heartbeat.)
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I'm not sure if I would trade the 1.02 this year - it's worth a lot. In the debate between talent and situation, wouldn't it be great to be able to get *both*? That's what high picks do for you. FF is all about studs and opportunity. I like 1.02's chances of landing a stud in a great situation much better than 1.03 (and so on.)Let's say you have 1.02, and are given the choice between

a) Mendenhall/McFadden (whomever didn't go #1) in a great situation to be the unquestioned RB1 (HOU / DET)

b) Stewart in someplace else sharing carries / a few years to develop

c) Jones / Rice in a decent situation

well, the choice is easy for 1.02. Pick 1.03 doesn't have it so easy, and could realistically pass on Stewart and gamble on Rice / Jones. Even if pick 3 has pick 7 also, given the above (and noting that great players can definitely come lower) I'd still rather be in pick #2's shoes.

Now, the above is only one way it could play out. Maybe McFadden goes to Dallas or the Jets, and Hou / Det draft Mendenhall and Stewart - THEN #3 is worth nearly as much as #2. But everything has to fall into place for that to happen. Otherwise, it's almost a given that #2 will land you a team's feature back. #3 not so sure.

 
jwb said:
B Maverick said:
Would you move from the 1.2 to the 1.3 to pick up a 2nd round pick? I dont think he will go for a swap of the 1.2 and 1.3 and give me the 1.7 (would do that in a heartbeat.)
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I'm not sure if I would trade the 1.02 this year - it's worth a lot. In the debate between talent and situation, wouldn't it be great to be able to get *both*? That's what high picks do for you. FF is all about studs and opportunity. I like 1.02's chances of landing a stud in a great situation much better than 1.03 (and so on.)Let's say you have 1.02, and are given the choice between

a) Mendenhall/McFadden (whomever didn't go #1) in a great situation to be the unquestioned RB1 (HOU / DET)

b) Stewart in someplace else sharing carries / a few years to develop

c) Jones / Rice in a decent situation

well, the choice is easy for 1.02. Pick 1.03 doesn't have it so easy, and could realistically pass on Stewart and gamble on Rice / Jones. Even if pick 3 has pick 7 also, given the above (and noting that great players can definitely come lower) I'd still rather be in pick #2's shoes.

Now, the above is only one way it could play out. Maybe McFadden goes to Dallas or the Jets, and Hou / Det draft Mendenhall and Stewart - THEN #3 is worth nearly as much as #2. But everything has to fall into place for that to happen. Otherwise, it's almost a given that #2 will land you a team's feature back. #3 not so sure.
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exactly why i havent traded out of it yet. or why i probably wont.
 
I'll be waiting to see who goes where since I very well may be looking to trade up...

16-team dynasty, and I have the 1.5, 1.9, 1.16 and four 2nd rndrs. I may stay put if Felix/Rice land in good spots (and subsequently have mid-/late-1sts to land best available); but, it's comforting knowing I have enough ammo to move up should I want to.

 
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Having a midround pick, I'm not actively seeking to move up. The players there will fill a need on my squad.

Although I'd love to have a top 3 pick, I'm not a "sell the farm" type of owner regarding rookies.

Veterans, I'm more inclined to pursue. I can justify overpaying for a guy that is worth it.

I don't need the shiniest toy in the room, but I do want a Christmas toy that lasts past New Years.

 
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I have 1.1 and 1.5. I'm thinking I'd like to move up from 1.5 to 1.3 or 1.2 but it's going to depend on how the draft shakes out to see where these guys go.

 
switz said:
Ro3384 said:
Donnybrook said:
Smizzy said:
Felix Jones and Ray Rice make 4 & 5 workable...6 on is a crap shoot.
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If Matt Forte lands in Chicago, will he be the consensus 1.04? Would you take Felix Jones over him if ends up playing next to Marion Barber?
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According to Maroney=Tool, location means nothing... so I guess not...
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I'd still take Jones over Forte.
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Yeah, me too. I always take talent over situation. Felix Jones will be a stud someday. Even if you have to be a little patient if he lands in Dallas.
 
FWIW, I traded Cutler, Sidney Rice and the 1.4 for Lamont Joran, Jacoby Jones and the 1.1

I just didn't like the 1.4 spot.

 
Will said:
FWIW, I traded Cutler, Sidney Rice and the 1.4 for Lamont Joran, Jacoby Jones and the 1.1I just didn't like the 1.4 spot.
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I have 1.4 and I know one guy at 1.09 wanting to trade up. I'm waiting to see what the draft holds. A lot will depend on Stewart (deemed low-risk? what round?), Jones (location, system, RB ahead of him), and the situations of Rice, Forte and Charles.
 
I have 1.5, 1.8 and 1.10 in a 5 keeper league, milestone, no ppr. 1-3 are sure to be McF/Mend/Stew, then aging vet RBs mix in with solid WRs top TEs and QBs. I am set at QB1, RB1+2, WR1+2.

These threads are very important to me because I will take a rook RB at 1.5 or 1.8 and 1.8 may actually be the same guy you all would take at 1.5.

Thanks for the insight guys.

I rank Rice in the top 5 but KSmith beats out felix in my rankings. I tend to consider production over potential most of the time. If KSmith was with McFadden at Ark would he have been as productive as Jones? what about Jones in Smiths shoes?

 
I think the makeup of the team and the number and position of the picks owned has a huge impact on my willingness to 'pay the price' to move up

I mentioned in another thread I moved the 1.4 + an '09-1st projected to be mid-round for the 1.2...

...you say "way too much", I'm sure--and for most my teams, I DO NOT make that deal

but this team suxor and need immediate infusion of starter RB talent, PLUS, I own the 1, 8, 18 and 22 also to go w/the 2

I also own my own '09-1st

for most of my teams, I'd stay pat in the 4-6 range and let the chips fall where they may and take BPA (subjective as that statement is!)

 
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I think Chris Johnson's FF stock is about to rise a few slots. I don't think people realize how high he might be drafted. He could be a first round pick and is pretty likely to be drafted ahead of Felix Jones and Ray Rice. We could be looking at 5-7 reasonably appealing RB options after the dust settles on draft day.

 
EBF said:
I think Chris Johnson's FF stock is about to rise a few slots. I don't think people realize how high he might be drafted. He could be a first round pick and is pretty likely to be drafted ahead of Felix Jones and Ray Rice. We could be looking at 5-7 reasonably appealing RB options after the dust settles on draft day.
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i hope so. then a better rb will fall.
 
If you are trying to move up, I'd do it before the NFL draft. It's going to cost a lot more if things go poorly in regards to situation for one or two top RB prospects.

On the flip side, I would wait until after the NFL draft to trade down from one of those spots if that is your intention. Nothing worse than making a "good" deal now, that may turn sour in the next month.

 
About a month ago I traded 1.05, Rudi, and Kevin Walter for 1.02.

At 1.05, I felt I was on the outside, looking in at the three prizes of the 08 rookie draft. With SJax, Addai and J. Jones on my roster, I felt Rudi was expendable.

 
If I'm in the top 3 I am likely trading down, if I am not in the top 3 I am also considering trading down. This draft is deep, I want as many of them as possible.

 
TheOriginalDoubledown said:
If you are trying to move up, I'd do it before the NFL draft. It's going to cost a lot more if things go poorly in regards to situation for one or two top RB prospects.On the flip side, I would wait until after the NFL draft to trade down from one of those spots if that is your intention. Nothing worse than making a "good" deal now, that may turn sour in the next month.
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:thumbdown: This is almost always the correct strategy. The picks gain more value as the draft gets closer.
 
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