Help me understand... (1 Viewer)

OK, before I say anything that may make me appear stupid, I haven't really seen alot of the guy playing. Never-the-less, from a fantasy perpective, I just don't understand why people are so high on this guy. Some have him as high as #2 in a redraft. Dynasty? Sure, he's young and obviously talented. But why do so many project him having a more fruitful 2008 than proven studs in great situations like Wayne, Edwards, TO and Larry Fitz?

Top ten? Maybe, if the Texans upgrade their running game. Top 5? I just don't see it.

kerpow said:

OK, before I say anything that may make me appear stupid, I haven't really seen alot of the guy playing. Never-the-less, from a fantasy perpective, I just don't understand why people are so high on this guy. Some have him as high #2 in a redraft. Dynasty? Sure, he's young and obviously talented. But why do so many have project him having a more fruitful 2008 than proven studs in great situations like Wayne, Edwards, TO and Larry Fitz?

Top ten? Maybe, if the Texans upgrade their running game. Top 5? I just don't see it.

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He did 60/851/8 playing in 9 games last year. For 16 games that would be 106/1512/14. Plus he's had another off-season to work with Schaub. You can rank him low if you want I guess...

AJ is ranked highly based more upon talent than production. He is a matchup nightmare, as his size and speed combination is almost unparalleled. Personally, I would choose a more proven receiver at the top of my draft, but IF Johnson can put together a full season, he will be a top 3-5 WR.

Ketamine Dreams said:

He did 60/851/8 playing in 9 games last year. For 16 games that would be 106/1512/14. Plus he's had another off-season to work with Schaub. You can rank him low if you want I guess...

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Pro-rating stats is dangerous. This guy is uber-talented, but in a redraft I wouldn't take him over close to 10 guys, and in a dynasty he sits outside of my top 5.

kerpow said:

OK, before I say anything that may make me appear stupid, I haven't really seen alot of the guy playing. Never-the-less, from a fantasy perpective, I just don't understand why people are so high on this guy. Some have him as high as #2 in a redraft. Dynasty? Sure, he's young and obviously talented. But why do so many project him having a more fruitful 2008 than proven studs in great situations like Wayne, Edwards, TO and Larry Fitz?

Top ten? Maybe, if the Texans upgrade their running game. Top 5? I just don't see it.

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Even with the running game the Texans had, he did finish 2nd amongst WR's only behind Randy Moss for points based on a weekly average.Missing those 7 games will make most people look elsewhere to when ranking the top WR.

In a redraft it's hard to pass on Moss, but after that a strong case can be made for several players, including AJ. IMO

kerpow said:

OK, before I say anything that may make me appear stupid, I haven't really seen alot of the guy playing. Never-the-less, from a fantasy perpective, I just don't understand why people are so high on this guy. Some have him as high as #2 in a redraft. Dynasty? Sure, he's young and obviously talented. But why do so many project him having a more fruitful 2008 than proven studs in great situations like Wayne, Edwards, TO and Larry Fitz?

Top ten? Maybe, if the Texans upgrade their running game. Top 5? I just don't see it.

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DAVID CARR!Until last year he had Carr dragging him down, last year in my ppr league he was WR #2 if you take all the players weekly average. With Houston improving and Schaub having another year in the system it is expected that his superior talent will come through.

kerpow said:

OK, before I say anything that may make me appear stupid, I haven't really seen alot of the guy playing. Never-the-less, from a fantasy perpective, I just don't understand why people are so high on this guy. Some have him as high as #2 in a redraft. Dynasty? Sure, he's young and obviously talented. But why do so many project him having a more fruitful 2008 than proven studs in great situations like Wayne, Edwards, TO and Larry Fitz?

Top ten? Maybe, if the Texans upgrade their running game. Top 5? I just don't see it.

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I understand where you're coming from, the guy has been injured and/or played with lousy QB's his entire career..but, he's every bit as talented as Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne..he is T.O. , with blazing speed..the problem is teams have been able to focus on him because Houston lacks a quality #2 WR..but they might have found on in last years draft, Jacoby Jones. They also have Kevin Walter and Andre Davis, two very capable receivers.

Part of the problem with Houston has been that they've lacked in time of possession: they've ranked 24th(2006), 30th(2005), 19th(2004), 31st(2003). its a testament to his abilities to see that he led the league in receptions in 2006, WITH David Carr throwing to him! Not only do the Texans lack in time of possession, but they've also lacked in quality QB play, O-line play, and defense..

Now they seem to be headed in the right direction offensive ( Gibbs hiring) and their ability to effectively run the ball will open up the passing lanes. Now , if AJ can only stay healthy for a full 16 games...

Ketamine Dreams said:

He did 60/851/8 playing in 9 games last year. For 16 games that would be 106/1512/14. Plus he's had another off-season to work with Schaub. You can rank him low if you want I guess...

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And IIRC He led the NFL in catches the year before.Those stats are pretty hard to turn away from. Since he was injured last year, that'll be on people's minds. I'm not sure if it'll make him drop.For me, Andre is a young WR that has been just swarmed by defenses and found a way to still get the catch. Their running game has been suspect, the opposite WR has been suspect, throw in David Carr and Ds were all about stopping Andre. OP You said you didn't see him play, or not much. You should try to, he's fun and you'll probably be glad you did. When I saw him fight for the ball(and fight isn't such a stretch for a change) muscling and pushing, getting pushed, or making a nice move that has to fool a couple defenders instead of just 1, coming back for a poorly thrown ball can be a race he has to win etc... when I see that it makes me think he might be the best WR in the league. Makes me wonder who has those odds to overcome to grab a pass. Then I temper my enthusiasm and back off some but when I see it, it's exciting. He's exactly what you want in a young WR except he played for a poor team. I would almost feel bad he had to work so hard for a catch while other WRs just get a simple grab and run.In another thread, we're debating whether Carr gets all the blame for Steve Smith's poor games or whether Steve should get some. It's a different offense and Carr did look worse in Carolina but I can't help but wonder if Andre is better at fighting for the ball than Steve.Schaub is a decent QB with some very pretty passes. I can't help but think Andre thinks it's much easier to have good passes thrown to him. It's gotta be, doesn't it? So if it's easier, what do you project for him if he led the league in catches with a poor QB? You'd jump to last year where he had some pretty great half year stats, right?Well I exaggerated some, not every pass from Carr was a circus routine. It only seemed that way some weeks. Still I think some perceive it that way. When his supporting cast wasn't so good, he was dramatically better so again that would be perception. I remember several people calling him or quoting "good post" to a "man amongst boys" after an announcer did, a couple years back.If he was on the Colts and they started 3 WRs every week, he wouldn't stand out so much with Harrison and Wayne and Peyton's nice passes. He's not though. He's far far better than his teammates and it gets tricky to try and predict. If you watch a Texans game vs a team with not so good WRs, you are coming away from it thinking Andre is phenomenal. That perception is a tough one to deal with and predict

Did you see what happened to Steve Smith with David Carr throwing to him?

JPeso said:

Ketamine Dreams said:

He did 60/851/8 playing in 9 games last year. For 16 games that would be 106/1512/14. Plus he's had another off-season to work with Schaub. You can rank him low if you want I guess...

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Pro-rating stats is dangerous. This guy is uber-talented, but in a redraft I wouldn't take him over close to 10 guys, and in a dynasty he sits outside of my top 5.

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I'd be curious who those guys were.

JPeso said:

This guy is uber-talented, but in a redraft I wouldn't take him over close to 10 guys.

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Interesting, as there are probably only about 3-5 guys that I would take over him.

JPeso said:

Ketamine Dreams said:

He did 60/851/8 playing in 9 games last year. For 16 games that would be 106/1512/14. Plus he's had another off-season to work with Schaub. You can rank him low if you want I guess...

Click to expand...

Pro-rating stats is dangerous. This guy is uber-talented, but in a redraft I wouldn't take him over close to 10 guys, and in a dynasty he sits outside of my top 5.

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10 guys? really?he's a top 5 WR next year. Im willing to sig bet it.Dynasty there are only 2 guys I'd rather have than him Wayne and Fitz

Top 10 Redraft

1. Moss

2. TO

3. Wayne

4. Fitzgerald

5a. Colston

5b. AJ

7. Edwards

8. Holt

9. CJ

10. S. Smith

Top 10 Dynasty

1. Moss

2. Fitzgerald

3. AJ

4. Colston

5. Edwards

6. Wayne

7. CJ2

8. CJ

9. Marshall

10. S. Smith

gianmarco said:

Top 10 Redraft1. Moss2. TO3. Wayne4. Fitzgerald5a. Colston5b. AJ7. Edwards8. Holt9. CJ10. S. SmithTop 10 Dynasty1. Moss2. Fitzgerald3. AJ4. Colston5. Edwards6. Wayne7. CJ28. CJ9. Marshall10. S. Smith

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Nice lists. I didn't think you had it in you. Nice job.

I think RMoss at #1 in dynasty is a bit flawwed. but to each his own.

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

I think RMoss at #1 in dynasty is a bit flawwed. but to each his own.

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Don't help Him.

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

I think RMoss at #1 in dynasty is a bit flawwed. but to each his own.

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Who would you prefer? I've seen Fitzgerald and AJ listed there and I have no issues with that. The one I have an issue with that I see most often is Wayne. With only 1 yr age difference between the 2, there is absolutely no way that I rank Wayne above Moss as I don't see him outproducing Moss in any way over the next 2-3 yrs. In 3 yrs, Wayne will be 33 and Moss 34 and neither will retain the same value as today. Give me Moss's ultra-elite production during the next 2-3 yrs even if it means losing value at the end of 3 yrs.I think peopel forget that Moss only JUST turned 31. He has a lot of time left. With his 3 yr contract in NE, I'll take his talent + situation over anyone and win with it. As I said, if you value youth and want to put the younger guys ahead of him, I understand that viewpoint and can agree with it as well, but it's not my style. But, of the younger guys, the only ones I realistically put ahead of Moss are Fitz, AJ, and MAYBE Colston/Edwards.If it's a question about his production, there is no way you can convince me that he isn't the top WR on the field. His stint in Oakland is a complete anomaly that I choose to ignore. Otherwise, his production has been tops bar none. The only guys close to him in terms of what he's done in that time frame are Harrison and TO and Moss is 4-5 yrs younger than both.

Just rechecked FBG staff rankings and 2 out of the 3 currently have Wayne as the #1 dynasty WR. There are only 2 reasons I can think of for this:

1. Wayne will outproduce Moss over the next 3 yrs.

2. The 1 1/2 yrs age difference is significant enough.

As for #1, I just don't see it. Maybe others do. I like Wayne and think he's been productive, but he doesn't hold a candle to Moss's talent and production. In terms of situation, they are both elite and not an advantage for Wayne either. I think Moss's ceiling is considerably higher than Wayne's, and that is saying a lot.

As for #2, if you agree with #1, then 1 1/2 yrs age difference is insignificant. Both of these guys will lose considerable value in the next 3 yrs as one will be 33 and the other 34. Therefore, give me the guy that should put up better #'s over the next 3 yrs.

I don't know if some people think Moss is older than what he is or if Wayne is younger than what he is, but I consistently see Wayne over Moss and I just don't see it.

ETA---Reggie Wayne had his best year of his career this past year scoring 211 points. Moss has scored more than that in 5 of his 8 yrs (not including his 2 yrs in Oakland).

I like AJ, but I don't understand how people can rank him and Edwards ahead of Fitzgerald. It's like taking the young guy who might become a beast over the young guy who's already a beast. It's bad drafting.

That said, Johnson was a monster last year in terms of yards per game. I like the direction of the Texans offense and I think AJ can put up big numbers. He's somewhat overrated until he actually does it though.

I go for RBs and a solid QB first... so the stud wideouts are gone when I start drafting. Two seasons ago my top two wideouts were Plax and AJ. Plax got the TDs, AJ got the catches, I stayed competitive all season and ended up in 4th. What I couldn't get over was that no matter what else happened to the Texans that season, AJ got his catches. As long as he stays healthy, but you can say that about any wideout.

EBF said:

I like AJ, but I don't understand how people can rank him and Edwards ahead of Fitzgerald. It's like taking the young guy who might become a beast over the young guy who's already a beast. It's bad drafting. That said, Johnson was a monster last year in terms of yards per game. I like the direction of the Texans offense and I think AJ can put up big numbers. He's somewhat overrated until he actually does it though.

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AJ and Braylon are beasts. :shrugs:not only that I like Clev and Houstons QB situations alot more than Ariz. Fitz wont produce as well with Leinart in there. Warner is a different story

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

EBF said:

I like AJ, but I don't understand how people can rank him and Edwards ahead of Fitzgerald. It's like taking the young guy who might become a beast over the young guy who's already a beast. It's bad drafting. That said, Johnson was a monster last year in terms of yards per game. I like the direction of the Texans offense and I think AJ can put up big numbers. He's somewhat overrated until he actually does it though.

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AJ and Braylon are beasts. :shrugs:

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AJ's stats are nowhere near Fitzgerald's level. Taking AJ over Fitz is pure speculation since Fitz has been much more productive so far. Braylon had a monster 2007 and looks like the real deal. I'd still prefer Fitz since he has two elite seasons to Braylon's one and since he doesn't have the ACL tear on his resume. I like Andre Johnson and I think he's a WR1 for dynasty purposes. But the problem with him is that he's being drafted like a dominant superstar when he hasn't quite achieved up to that level yet. He doesn't belong in the conversation with a guy like Fitzgerald until he has a 1,400 yard season of his own.

EBF said:

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

EBF said:

I like AJ, but I don't understand how people can rank him and Edwards ahead of Fitzgerald. It's like taking the young guy who might become a beast over the young guy who's already a beast. It's bad drafting. That said, Johnson was a monster last year in terms of yards per game. I like the direction of the Texans offense and I think AJ can put up big numbers. He's somewhat overrated until he actually does it though.

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AJ and Braylon are beasts. :shrugs:

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AJ's stats are nowhere near Fitzgerald's level. Taking AJ over Fitz is pure speculation since Fitz has been much more productive so far. Braylon had a monster 2007 and looks like the real deal. I'd still prefer Fitz since he has two elite seasons to Braylon's one and since he doesn't have the ACL tear on his resume. I like Andre Johnson and I think he's a WR1 for dynasty purposes. But the problem with him is that he's being drafted like a dominant superstar when he hasn't quite achieved up to that level yet. He doesn't belong in the conversation with a guy like Fitzgerald until he has a 1,400 yard season of his own.

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I give AJ a mulligan for the Carr years.

The one thing about AJ is that he's NEVER been a top-10 WR. Now as many have said Carr may have been the reason for that and if he hadn't gotten hurt this season he would have easily made top-10, but the fact remains that in 5 years he's never done it. I can't understand any argument that has him in the top-3.

Moss, Wayne, Fitz. I can't see him ahead of any of them and there are another 3-4 guys(Edwards, Smith , Colston) who you could argue over AJ.