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Who am I? (1 Viewer)

gianmarco

gianmarco

Footballguy
1. I've been in the NFL for 4 yrs and was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round.

2. I'm the #1 WR on an offense that has been in the top 10 among passing offenses the last 2 years.

3. I have failed to reach 850 yds in 3 of my 4 seasons in the NFL.

4. I've never had more than 8 TDs in a season.

5. I've never caught more than 82 balls in a year. My other reception totals are 64, 54, and 45.

6. I've only managed to play all 16 games once in four years.

7. My FBG WR finishes are as follows (in order from best to worst): 10th, 29th, 30th, 33rd

8. I'm currently ranked 12th among dynasty WR's both in voting polls and by FBG staff.

9. I'm coming off my worst year of my career, finishing 33rd in 2007.

Who am I?

(no peeking before guessing, although I don't think this should be too hard)

Then we can discuss :)

 
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Sometimes the scouting reports on players are accurate. Roy is exactly what they said he was coming out of college: extremely talented, but also very inconsistent and prone to long stretches of ineptitude.

 
Well, as I said, this should be pretty obvious and it was.

If we were to take his name off of his #'s, there's no way he gets ranked in the top 20. Yet, as "bad" as he's been, he seems to still command good trade value. I would take full advantage of that right now. There's a thread in the AC right now of a Fitzgerald owner considering trading him for Roy and the 1.8 rookie pick. That is absurd, to me. And even worse, I see people arguing that it might be too much to pay for Fitzgerald and that the difference between the 2 isn't that large. Even if you aren't a big Fitzgerald fan, I just don't get this, but after 4 relatively not good years, Roy is still looked at favorably.

If I owned Roy, I would use this thinking and find SOMEONE in my league that thought of him the same and take full advantage.

I would be curious to see the justification some of you have to rank him that high. There's no doubt the guy is ultra-talented, but that can only get you so far.

 
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FUBAR said:
I'll say Roy Williams, but I'm not sure if Detroit was a top 10 offense the last 2 years.
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Yes, they were. In his first 2 yrs, they were ranked in the 20's, but then Martz came to town and the change was drastic. 7th ranked passing offense in 20069th ranked passing offense in 2007
 
gianmarco said:
FUBAR said:
I'll say Roy Williams, but I'm not sure if Detroit was a top 10 offense the last 2 years.
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Yes, they were. In his first 2 yrs, they were ranked in the 20's, but then Martz came to town and the change was drastic. 7th ranked passing offense in 20069th ranked passing offense in 2007
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I take it your only criteria for ranking is yardage?Lions ranked #19 in passing TDs in 2007, #15 in 2006.
 
What's with the Roy Williams hate? He had over 1300 yards in 2006 and last season he had 836 yards playing in only 12 (more like 11 and a half) games. If he's healthy and Kitna's still the qb I don't see why he won't have a good season.

 
The thing about Roy is that every year there's reason to maybe give him another look.

He's a big-name rookie...he has a year of the NFL under his belt...Mike Martz is coming...he's getting comfortable under Mike Martz' system. Now he's out of Martz' system. Maybe a more stable offense means good things for him?

Detroit is such a "Hey, maybe this ye....oh, no!" team, it's no wonder their fantasy plyers are like that, too.

 
The Man with the Plan said:
What's with the Roy Williams hate? He had over 1300 yards in 2006 and last season he had 836 yards playing in only 12 (more like 11 and a half) games. If he's healthy and Kitna's still the qb I don't see why he won't have a good season.
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What's with the Roy Williams love? You ask what's with the hate....go read post #1 where I detailed the reasons. Part of it is "if he's healthy". He's played all 16 games only once in 4 years. I can buy prorating a guy's #'s if he's shown he can play all 16 games. He's shown he hasn't consistently.

Bottomline, there are quite a few other WR's that can and have performed better than him. Not saying Roy's worthless, but he's not #12 on my list. He's barely #20 at this point.

 
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Going into last season Braylon Edwards was the guy who hadn't played up to his level of ability. The trick is to get the guy before he becomes elite so you don't overpay.

I don't know whether ROY will ever be a top tier WR, but I do believe he has top tier talent. His injuries are a concern, but I think that's the only thing holding him back.

 
You the man Gianmarco...I think you make the best, most readable threads of anyone on this board..It seems there's at least one new one everyday. :hifive:

 
KoolKat said:
You the man Gianmarco...I think you make the best, most readable threads of anyone on this board..It seems there's at least one new one everyday. :loco:
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Mom, when did you get an account? JK, thanks for the kind words. I wouldn't go that far as there are some amazing posters here, but appreciate the feedback.
 
foxco said:
Going into last season Braylon Edwards was the guy who hadn't played up to his level of ability. The trick is to get the guy before he becomes elite so you don't overpay.

I don't know whether ROY will ever be a top tier WR, but I do believe he has top tier talent. His injuries are a concern, but I think that's the only thing holding him back.
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:loco: The love comes from people watching him and being able to tell that he is one of the most talented WRs in the league. His injury history is of some concern, but it's also relatively minor, IIRC (although I'll grant that it's been consistently minor). In the seasons he's missed games, he's missed 2, 3 and 4 games. It's not like he's losing entire seasons because he keeps blowing out knees.

I don't think a WR12 ranking is outrageous at all. gianmarco, where would you rank him?

 
FUBAR said:
gianmarco said:
FUBAR said:
I'll say Roy Williams, but I'm not sure if Detroit was a top 10 offense the last 2 years.
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Yes, they were. In his first 2 yrs, they were ranked in the 20's, but then Martz came to town and the change was drastic. 7th ranked passing offense in 20069th ranked passing offense in 2007
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I take it your only criteria for ranking is yardage?Lions ranked #19 in passing TDs in 2007, #15 in 2006.
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Well, I used NFL.com rankings and yes, they went by yardage primarily, I believe. The TD #s were lacking, but not horrible. Nonetheless, I would have hoped for a bit more from him. I know that Martz can lean on the #3 and even the #4 heavily, but it never stopped both Holt AND Bruce from producing quite well and consistently. The important thing to consider, I think, isn't how great they were, but that at least they weren't horrible and it shouldn't be a reason to keep Roy from producing better. 1. 1 part Kitna 1 yr older2. 1 part Stanton possibly coming in this year as well as the 3. Sprinkle in a little departure of Martz4. Add in the running game possibly taking a step back 5. Pour a bunch of the possibility of CJ2 exploding on the scene after a yearBake the above for 30 minutes and it = recipe for disaster.I just see very little positive about Roy improving this year with the exception of the ever-hopeful staying healthy and actually playing 16 games and having a legit threat in CJ2 to help him out in coverage. That's about it, for me. That's just not enough, though.
 
gianmarco said:
The Man with the Plan said:
What's with the Roy Williams hate? He had over 1300 yards in 2006 and last season he had 836 yards playing in only 12 (more like 11 and a half) games. If he's healthy and Kitna's still the qb I don't see why he won't have a good season.
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What's with the Roy Williams love? You ask what's with the hate....go read post #1 where I detailed the reasons. Part of it is "if he's healthy". He's played all 16 games only once in 4 years. I can buy prorating a guy's #'s if he's shown he can play all 16 games. He's shown he hasn't consistently.

Bottomline, there are quite a few other WR's that can and have performed better than him. Not saying Roy's worthless, but he's not #12 on my list. He's barely #20 at this point.
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Injuries can happen to anybody. I'm not sure why you'd fault him for getting hurt. However he's shown that he can play 16 games in a season and when he did he had a great year. He definitely has the skills. He's big, fast, can make the tough catches you know all of that stuff. The last 2 seasons he's been pretty good. I don't know what more do you want? Outside of injuries which can't be controlled I really don't see what the criticism is all about.As for rankings and such I wouldn't put him ahead of the usual guys (Moss, TO, Edwards, CJ, AJ, Fitz, Wayne, Colston,). After them I can't see anybody else who's as good as Roy Williams.They might be in a better situation (better QB and such) but Williams is still the better player.

 
gianmarco said:
...but it never stopped both Holt AND Bruce from producing quite well and consistently.
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Isaac Bruce was considered injury prone early in his career. Until he strung together 4 straight 16-game seasons.Anybody missing games in multiple years can be labeled injury prone...until they're not. I think predicting RW to consistently miss multiple games a season for the rest of his career is a pretty thin limb to go out on, but that's just my opinion.

 
Sidewinder16 said:
foxco said:
Going into last season Braylon Edwards was the guy who hadn't played up to his level of ability. The trick is to get the guy before he becomes elite so you don't overpay.

I don't know whether ROY will ever be a top tier WR, but I do believe he has top tier talent. His injuries are a concern, but I think that's the only thing holding him back.
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:no: The love comes from people watching him and being able to tell that he is one of the most talented WRs in the league. His injury history is of some concern, but it's also relatively minor, IIRC (although I'll grant that it's been consistently minor). In the seasons he's missed games, he's missed 2, 3 and 4 games. It's not like he's losing entire seasons because he keeps blowing out knees.

I don't think a WR12 ranking is outrageous at all. gianmarco, where would you rank him?
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It doesn't seem outrageous, but when you go and look at the #'s, it is really hart to justify. I completely agree when you watch him, you can tell he's very, very talented, easily top 10 and borderline top 5. But, there are just too many other talented WR's that put up better #'s. Talent can only get you so far if you don't produce.Here is the poll of dynasty WR rankings: Dynasty WR rankings

At this point, I would take all the guys above him and the following guys over him straight up: Holmes, Housh, TO, Holt, Bowe, Jennings.

I have him about even with Evans and Burress, but would prefer Roy over both of them. So, I guess #19 sounds about right. It's not ludicrous as 12, but at some point you just have to wonder if he will ever justify being that high. He's probably just a player I would avoid to save the headache or if I did own him, I would use that value perception to get something I felt was better. People view him as a great WR#2, but his #'s really show he's barely a mediocre #3 at this point.

The good thing is, one good season this year and he could completely turn it around and justify his ranking. That's how good he is. I just don't know that I can count on that given his opportunities thus far.

 
Sidewinder16 said:
gianmarco said:
...but it never stopped both Holt AND Bruce from producing quite well and consistently.
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Isaac Bruce was considered injury prone early in his career. Until he strung together 4 straight 16-game seasons.Anybody missing games in multiple years can be labeled injury prone...until they're not. I think predicting RW to consistently miss multiple games a season for the rest of his career is a pretty thin limb to go out on, but that's just my opinion.
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I'm not predicting him to consistently miss multiple games. I also hate the word injury-prone. But, at some point you have to wonder what's going on. 3 out of 4 yrs of not playing 16 games is foolish to ignore. I'm not saying he's definitely going to miss time, but how can you expect him to definitely do it?It's also another thing if he were at least producing at an elite level while on the field. But he hasn't done that either aside from 2006. Very good, yes. But not enough to justify the fact that he's only put up 1 good year in 4. And it was only a 10th place finish.

 
The Man with the Plan said:
gianmarco said:
The Man with the Plan said:
What's with the Roy Williams hate? He had over 1300 yards in 2006 and last season he had 836 yards playing in only 12 (more like 11 and a half) games. If he's healthy and Kitna's still the qb I don't see why he won't have a good season.
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What's with the Roy Williams love? You ask what's with the hate....go read post #1 where I detailed the reasons. Part of it is "if he's healthy". He's played all 16 games only once in 4 years. I can buy prorating a guy's #'s if he's shown he can play all 16 games. He's shown he hasn't consistently.

Bottomline, there are quite a few other WR's that can and have performed better than him. Not saying Roy's worthless, but he's not #12 on my list. He's barely #20 at this point.
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Injuries can happen to anybody. I'm not sure why you'd fault him for getting hurt. However he's shown that he can play 16 games in a season and when he did he had a great year. He definitely has the skills. He's big, fast, can make the tough catches you know all of that stuff. The last 2 seasons he's been pretty good. I don't know what more do you want? Outside of injuries which can't be controlled I really don't see what the criticism is all about.As for rankings and such I wouldn't put him ahead of the usual guys (Moss, TO, Edwards, CJ, AJ, Fitz, Wayne, Colston,). After them I can't see anybody else who's as good as Roy Williams.They might be in a better situation (better QB and such) but Williams is still the better player.
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There's talent and what we think he can do and then there's what he has actually doneWhat you think he can do with his talent -- Top 10

What he's actually done on the field in 4 yrs --10th, 29th, 30th, 33rd.

There's a discrepancy there and it's not a small one. If you like him, great. I like the guy, I think he's talented, but I wouldn't put him ahead of other guys that are less talented but produce better. And I wouldn't want to count on him because he's failed to deliver much more often than not. Ultimately, FF is based on #'s, not talent. This is why I think he's overrated in terms of fantasy football.

 
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Where does he rank on a points per game basis?

I would put more emphasis on PPG, than season numbers. Injuries are a hard thing to predict. I would want to rank the players based on what I thought they could in any given week. I can downgrade someone a slot or two if I think he is a risk to miss the last 4 games of a season. Bu I am not changing my ranking based on a random missed game or 2.

I suspect, that on this basis, a ranking of 12 would be appropriate.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Where does he rank on a points per game basis?I would put more emphasis on PPG, than season numbers. Injuries are a hard thing to predict. I would want to rank the players based on what I thought they could in any given week. I can downgrade someone a slot or two if I think he is a risk to miss the last 4 games of a season. Bu I am not changing my ranking based on a random missed game or 2.I suspect, that on this basis, a ranking of 12 would be appropriate.
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Well, in my league, for example, here's his #'s. We score 0.5 PPR as well as a 5 pt bonus for 100 yd games (should help him).He was #26 overall with 158 pts. To compare, #12 was Roddy White with 204 pts.He was #20 on a ppg basis with 13.1. To compare, #12 was Colston at 15.2.On that PPG list, the only one that shouldn't be there is Hackett. So in reality, he's more like #19. It's not far from #12, but it's still significant and I could easily see all of those guys above him outproducing him again. The ones listed above aren't flashes in the pan or one year wonders.
 
gianmarco said:
At this point, I would take all the guys above him and the following guys over him straight up: Holmes, Housh, TO, Holt, Bowe, Jennings.
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TO over Roy in a dynasty league? He'll be 35 this season. Housh and Holt would depend on the makeup of the rest of my team (win now = prefer Housh/Holt, built for the future = prefer Roy), and Holmes, Bowe, and Jennings have all proven far less, appear to be (slightly) less talented, and are in equally questionable situations.Really, Roy has followed a pretty typical career trajectory for a good WR -- inconsistent but flashes of brilliance during his first two years followed by a breakout 3rd year. Last year he was somewhat disappointing, certainly, but he missed four games, so of course his final numbers were down.Roy remains a player with HUGE upside. Everyone seems to agree that he has elite physical talent, and that is why he is ranked where he is. I am willing to give him a pass for his first two years -- how many WRs really produce consistently immediately in the NFL? The recurring injuries are certainly a minor concern, but that can be said of a lot of players. I see Roy as a fantastic dynasty WR2, which is right about where that #12 ranking lands him.
 
Yes, I would take two elite years of TO over 5 average years of Roy unless I was in complete rebuild mode or unless Roy was my #3 WR.

But if Roy is my #1 or #2, I'll take TO for him easily.

 
gianmarco said:
Yes, I would take two elite years of TO over 5 average years of Roy unless I was in complete rebuild mode or unless Roy was my #3 WR.
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This assumes that:A.) TO has two elite years left in him. History seems to indicate that the chances of that at his age aren't that great.B.) The Roy you will be getting will be average (Roy of '07) and not significantly better than that (Roy of '06).Above and beyond that, what is your exit value for TO in two years vs. that of Roy, who most people see as a top-12 fantasy WR? TO's value is nowhere near that of Roy.
 
Coeur de Lion said:
gianmarco said:
Yes, I would take two elite years of TO over 5 average years of Roy unless I was in complete rebuild mode or unless Roy was my #3 WR.
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This assumes that:A.) TO has two elite years left in him. History seems to indicate that the chances of that at his age aren't that great.B.) The Roy you will be getting will be average (Roy of '07) and not significantly better than that (Roy of '06).Above and beyond that, what is your exit value for TO in two years vs. that of Roy, who most people see as a top-12 fantasy WR? TO's value is nowhere near that of Roy.
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Well, I've recently had quite a few discussions about the age vs. production thing. Different philosophies, but I'll take shorter time of elite talent over longer time of significantly less production.Yes, it does assume those things. But I feel MUCH better projecting TO having elite #'s over the next 2 yrs than projecting Roy to crack the top 10 at this point. And, since I believe that, I'll take TO over Roy. I know I'm probably in the minority, but that's how I prefer running my teams. I think youth is overrated and too many owners worry about exit value. In the meantime, I'll take the sure points in my lineup even if it means getting nothing in two years. I don't think Roy gets even 60% of what TO does over the next 2 years. I could be wrong, but I'm ok with that. The only reason I wouldn't do that trade is if I can get someone comparable or better value. But if that's the only thing I can do to get Roy and I'm even remotely a contender, I'll take TO any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
 
gianmarco said:
Here is the poll of dynasty WR rankings: Dynasty WR rankings
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Hmmm. That list is pretty messed up, IMO, even thought RW is about in the right spot for me. But, I know I have an unconventional dynasty outlook on players.
gianmarco said:
The good thing is, one good season this year and he could completely turn it around and justify his ranking. That's how good he is. I just don't know that I can count on that given his opportunities thus far.
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As someone alluded to earlier, if you wait until he completely turns it around you've missed the boat. You've agreed he's talented. All he has to do is string some 16 game seasons together. If you wait until after he's done that, you're buying high.If you're completely unsold on Williams, that's fine. But if you think his talent can make him a top WR given a complete season (he's already proven he can be at least #10) I would be looking in to acquiring him.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
gianmarco said:
Yes, I would take two elite years of TO over 5 average years of Roy unless I was in complete rebuild mode or unless Roy was my #3 WR.
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This assumes that:A.) TO has two elite years left in him. History seems to indicate that the chances of that at his age aren't that great.

B.) The Roy you will be getting will be average (Roy of '07) and not significantly better than that (Roy of '06).

Above and beyond that, what is your exit value for TO in two years vs. that of Roy, who most people see as a top-12 fantasy WR? TO's value is nowhere near that of Roy.
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Not really sure about that. I'm not a big fan of TO for the future, but the guy has proven he can be truly elite. Roy hasn't really proven anything. The Cowboys are a legitimate threat to reach the Super Bowl. The Lions would be happy with a winning record. They'll throw a parade in Detroit if they get a wildcard.I'd rather have TO than Roy in a dynasty if I'm definitely starting them for the next couple of years. There's no Calvin Johnson in Dallas. There's no Romo in Detroit, either. Maybe Williams has more trade value in two years...but what do you really expect to get for him unless he really turns it arond? I doubt it would be worth sacrificing what you should get from TO, even in decline.

 
Sidewinder16 said:
gianmarco said:
Here is the poll of dynasty WR rankings: Dynasty WR rankings
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Hmmm. That list is pretty messed up, IMO, even thought RW is about in the right spot for me. But, I know I have an unconventional dynasty outlook on players.
gianmarco said:
The good thing is, one good season this year and he could completely turn it around and justify his ranking. That's how good he is. I just don't know that I can count on that given his opportunities thus far.
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As someone alluded to earlier, if you wait until he completely turns it around you've missed the boat. You've agreed he's talented. All he has to do is string some 16 game seasons together. If you wait until after he's done that, you're buying high.If you're completely unsold on Williams, that's fine. But if you think his talent can make him a top WR given a complete season (he's already proven he can be at least #10) I would be looking in to acquiring him.
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If you've read some of my other posts, I'm often posting about jumping on someone BEFORE they do what you project because, as you said, it's too late after that. That is definitely my philosophy. I was in Roy's corner year 1, year 2, year 3, and year 4. At this point, I just don't buy it anymore. I may be wrong, but I'm ok with that. I'd rather gamble on someone else that hasn't shown it yet vs. someone that continually proves me wrong with the exception of one year. This is not about hating Roy. This is not about saying he can't turn it around. This is simply an analysis looking at what he's been projected to do for 4 yrs and what he has actually done. The fact is that there is a huge discrepancy. It's there in the final totals, it's there in the ppg, and it's there in the time missed. If you like him, if you think he's talented, if you think he's going to turn it around, I'm not going to argue those points much because I do think he is talented and I do think he can turn it around. I'm just done counting on it and I feel his current rankings by many (as evidenced by that other thread and this one as well) is too high. We don't all have to agree and I think it's been a good discussion.

I see him following the same path as Chambers. Doing enough to tease owners to continue to gamble on him but never quite delivering the goods. As high as he's ranked, there's just always going to be "someone else" that I prefer at this point.

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I'd rather have TO than Roy in a dynasty if I'm definitely starting them for the next couple of years. There's no Calvin Johnson in Dallas. There's no Romo in Detroit, either. Maybe Williams has more trade value in two years...but what do you really expect to get for him unless he really turns it arond? I doubt it would be worth sacrificing what you should get from TO, even in decline.
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I think that between TO's injury history and off-field nonsense he and Roy are about a wash as far as likelihood to start 16 games in 2008. When you throw in TO's age, and the history of WR performance (or lack thereof) at age 35+ then I am pretty confident that Roy will continue to carry substantially higher value moving forward.The assumption that you will get two full years of stud TO production is more of a stretch than you are acknowledging, IMO.
 
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Coeur de Lion said:
A.) TO has two elite years left in him. History seems to indicate that the chances of that at his age aren't that great.
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History indicates that the chances of a WR getting 882/13070/129 in a career aren't that great.History indicates that the chances of gaining 1355 receiving yards at age 34 are extremely thin.History indicates that the chances of getting 17 receiving TDs at age 34 are even slimmer than thatTO has managed to do all that, though. I'm not sure comparing TO against history is a good predictor of what TO will do the next couple of years.
 
Coeur de Lion said:
We'll have to agree to disagree, philosophically, then.

gianmarco said:
I don't think Roy gets even 60% of what TO does over the next 2 years.
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I'd bet my house and my left nut on this, though (on the Roy > 60% of TO over two years side, obviously).
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Over the last 2 yrs (which is including Roy's best year), he's currently at 68% of TO's production.60% may be a bit much (was just spouting off, to be honest), but 70% is actually probably realistic.
 
TO is hardly the only great WR ever to play in the NFL. The fact that pretty much no one outside of Jerry Rice has sustained elite production at age 35/36 is a pretty strong case against TO doing so, IMO.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I'd rather have TO than Roy in a dynasty if I'm definitely starting them for the next couple of years. There's no Calvin Johnson in Dallas. There's no Romo in Detroit, either. Maybe Williams has more trade value in two years...but what do you really expect to get for him unless he really turns it arond? I doubt it would be worth sacrificing what you should get from TO, even in decline.
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I think that between TO's injury history and off-field nonsense he and Roy are about a wash as far as likelihood to start 16 games in 2008. When you throw in TO's age, and the history of WR performance (or lack thereof) at age 35+ then I am pretty confident that Roy will continue to carry substantially higher value moving forward.The assumption that you will get two full years of stud TO production is more of a stretch than you are acknowledging, IMO.
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TO's off-field nonsense has impacted his ON-FIELD performance all of ONCE in 12 years. I'll take the odds that he behaves over the next 2 yrs.And even with TO missing 1-2 games/yr with an injury, his production still dwarfs Roy's. It's not really that close. TO has bested Roy's career year (where he played all 16 games) in 7 out of 12 yrs. We can agree to disagree here. I have plenty of faith in TO delivering pretty outstanding #'s for 2 more yrs. After that, I don't really care.
 
gianmarco said:
If you like him, if you think he's talented, if you think he's going to turn it around, I'm not going to argue those points much because I do think he is talented and I do think he can turn it around. I'm just done counting on it and I feel his current rankings by many (as evidenced by that other thread and this one as well) is too high. We don't all have to agree and I think it's been a good discussion.I see him following the same path as Chambers. Doing enough to tease owners to continue to gamble on him but never quite delivering the goods. As high as he's ranked, there's just always going to be "someone else" that I prefer at this point.
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Fair enough. Looking at a few of your last posts in here, it looks like we share some similar thoughts/strategies when it comes to evaluating players for dynasty purposes. We just disagree on Roy. :mellow: I'm OK with agreeing to disagree.I do agree, though, that it has been a good discussion. :goodposting:
 
Sidewinder16 said:
Coeur de Lion said:
TO is hardly the only great WR ever to play in the NFL. The fact that pretty much no one outside of Jerry Rice has sustained elite production at age 35/36 is a pretty strong case against TO doing so, IMO.
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How many WRs at age 34 have had the production of TO?
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Marvin Harrison comes immediately to mind.Point being that at TO's age the cliff is likely rapidly approaching. We can't know when he'll start to decline, but I personally wouldn't want to bet that he has two full years of elite production left.
 
If Joey Galloway can do what he's done in TB at the age of 37 (this year), then I think TO has a shot at 2 more yrs since he's 2 yrs younger than Galloway.

I know the history of WR's at this age, but there are exceptions to every rule. Considering the shape that TO is in and the kind of WR he is, he's a perfect candidate to break the rule and I would bet on that rather than against it in his case.

ETA--But enough about TO, let's back to why Roy sucks :popcorn:

 
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gianmarco said:
If Joey Galloway can do what he's done in TB at the age of 37 (this year), then I think TO has a shot at 2 more yrs since he's 2 yrs younger than Galloway.
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Galloway 2005 (at 34) 83/1287/10Galloway 2006 (at 35) 62/1057/7Galloway 2007 (at 36) 57/1014/6If TO declines at a similar rate he won't be an elite WR1 this year, which is at the center of our disagreement.
 
Coeur de Lion said:
gianmarco said:
If Joey Galloway can do what he's done in TB at the age of 37 (this year), then I think TO has a shot at 2 more yrs since he's 2 yrs younger than Galloway.
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Galloway 2005 (at 34) 83/1287/10Galloway 2006 (at 35) 62/1057/7Galloway 2007 (at 36) 57/1014/6If TO declines at a similar rate he won't be an elite WR1 this year, which is at the center of our disagreement.
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Ok, I'll bite.I took the biggest drop, going from 2005 straight to 2007. If I applied the same % drop to TO's 2007 #'s, he would finish with:55/1070/10 TDs. That's good for 167 pts, or 12th among WR's per FBG scoring after Wes Welker at 11. Coincidentally, that's only 6 pts off Roy's best year in his entire career.Considering that Dallas >>>> TB and TO>>>>Galloway and assuming that's worst case scenario, I can live with that as a "baseline" and figure it's probably going to be a bit higher.
 
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Sidewinder16 said:
Coeur de Lion said:
TO is hardly the only great WR ever to play in the NFL. The fact that pretty much no one outside of Jerry Rice has sustained elite production at age 35/36 is a pretty strong case against TO doing so, IMO.
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How many WRs at age 34 have had the production of TO?
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On top of that, I think we're right at the leading edge of markedly increased longevity for WRs. This generation in their 30s, I believe, will be productive much longer than previous generations. These guys are in such good shape that I could see TO, Holt, Moss, Harrison, et al playing well deep into their late 30s. For example, if we call TO's '07 100%, I could see the decline being something like 90%, 80%, 70%, 60% instead of production falling off of a cliff.
 
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