renesauz
IBL Representative
INTRO:
While we have all had fun participating in the White Elephant draft, to this point we have had a very difficult time determining just how fair the draft is. In other words, is it a viable format, or just a quirky variation good only for having fun and passing some time? Is it fair enough to be used in a money league?
What about all of the theories proposed during the draft? Is there an advantage to drafting on the ends?
In order to attempt to figure that out, it was necessary to grade and rank the resulting teams. In an effort to help reduce any possible bias, I had printed the teams out without the names or draft positions attached, and then waited a couple of days. The idea was to blind myself to the draft position as I judged the result. Because we were not aware of the byes until very late in the draft, I didn't use bye weeks as a critical componant in determining a rank. I could not throw them out entirely though, as in serveral instances the bye weeks had a significant impact on late round strategy. In those case, I made small adjustments to compensate (such as assuming the drafter would have taken another WR when they were forced to take a third QB, etc.)
Obviously, I still recognised my own, and one or two other teams. I must acknowledge that an arbitrary ranking of teams is at best an imperfect way to judge the fairness and viability of the draft, but I fail to see any alternative method to judge by. It is highly unlikely that anybody who participated would rank the teams in the exact same order I did. I'm not sure that that matters though. I strongly suspect that the rankings generated by anybody else would lead to very similar conclusions.
Immediately after doing rankings, I went back and started studying how the draft played out. How did we each aquire our players (by steal, fresh pick, repick). Was there any useful information or clues there? I checked the first five rounds first, then the whole draft.
Finally, I tried to draw conclusions.
I have to apologize for being so slow to post all of this. The two days I waited to do the rankings slowed the process in a necessary way. I didn't want to post the blog until I could post everything simply because I didn't want to compromise my efforts with too much discussion before I was done.
For this thread:
POST 1: Intro
POST 2: Blog
POST 3: General Statistics
POST 4: Rankings/Ratings
POST 5: Conclusions
Let me know what you agree/disagree with and why. Who agrees with my general conclusions?
While we have all had fun participating in the White Elephant draft, to this point we have had a very difficult time determining just how fair the draft is. In other words, is it a viable format, or just a quirky variation good only for having fun and passing some time? Is it fair enough to be used in a money league?
What about all of the theories proposed during the draft? Is there an advantage to drafting on the ends?
In order to attempt to figure that out, it was necessary to grade and rank the resulting teams. In an effort to help reduce any possible bias, I had printed the teams out without the names or draft positions attached, and then waited a couple of days. The idea was to blind myself to the draft position as I judged the result. Because we were not aware of the byes until very late in the draft, I didn't use bye weeks as a critical componant in determining a rank. I could not throw them out entirely though, as in serveral instances the bye weeks had a significant impact on late round strategy. In those case, I made small adjustments to compensate (such as assuming the drafter would have taken another WR when they were forced to take a third QB, etc.)
Obviously, I still recognised my own, and one or two other teams. I must acknowledge that an arbitrary ranking of teams is at best an imperfect way to judge the fairness and viability of the draft, but I fail to see any alternative method to judge by. It is highly unlikely that anybody who participated would rank the teams in the exact same order I did. I'm not sure that that matters though. I strongly suspect that the rankings generated by anybody else would lead to very similar conclusions.
Immediately after doing rankings, I went back and started studying how the draft played out. How did we each aquire our players (by steal, fresh pick, repick). Was there any useful information or clues there? I checked the first five rounds first, then the whole draft.
Finally, I tried to draw conclusions.
I have to apologize for being so slow to post all of this. The two days I waited to do the rankings slowed the process in a necessary way. I didn't want to post the blog until I could post everything simply because I didn't want to compromise my efforts with too much discussion before I was done.
For this thread:
POST 1: Intro
POST 2: Blog
POST 3: General Statistics
POST 4: Rankings/Ratings
POST 5: Conclusions
Let me know what you agree/disagree with and why. Who agrees with my general conclusions?
Last edited by a moderator:
The only real surprise at this point is that so few people have repicked after being robbed. Looking over the draft board again, there's a few people who could steal ADP from me that could leave me scrambling for first round value if that happens. None of them can do it safely before I lock my pick though, so I SHOULD be ok.12pm:Well, Pasquino screwed me a little by stealing ADP right before my pick. I stole Gore from Pictus cat and immediately locked him up with my second round pick (Willie parker...I'll never hold him), so I still got appropriate first round value. Jeff, on the other had, really took a bad risk. EVERYONE between him and me can re-steal ADP now, and three of those people have repicks outstanding (so can lock their steal). After several PM's with Jeff, it's obvious he didn't think through the second part of the steal test well, and didn't realize that if he loses ADP, he can only re-steal players taken FRESH after his steal. He'd be stuck with late first round value AT BEST, and probably late second round also.12:30pm:Like last year, I'm getting constant messages. A couple of people have already jumped on Jeff's mistake without my help. I didn't offer anyone direct advice, but I did message several people with outstanding repicks basicly telling them to be careful with their steals, that they would be suprised who they COULD, and couldn't, steal.5:30pmRudy stole and locked up ADP, basicly screwing Jeff. Meanwhile, Fro used his second steal to secure Jones-Drew as his first round pick. Hard to beleive he used up two steals to get late first value at the 1.7 position! Meanwhile, Rudnicki had two picks stolen (LT and Jones-Drew) but hasn't used a steal. The only other guys with all five steals left either went clean through round 1, or have a re-pick outstanding. Ruds has McGahee locked for round one, and currently holds Ronnie Brown for round 2. With all five steals in hand, I'd say he's not far behind the curve....unlike Jeff and Fro. Road Warriors just posted...apparently he had ADP in his sights too if Rudy missed it, and he and I never had any messages. He stole and locked Clinton Portis...first round value, but a far cry from ADP!11pmVery good progress overall. Several more picks have gone since I last updated here. Jeff waited until his pick, and then stole Ryan Grant. I don't understand that move. He has Grant ranked #18 in his dynasty rankings, so he shouldn't be any higher for redraft (I wouldn't think). Brown was the last RB taken as #16, so I can't see why Jeff would use a steal to pick a RB who is LOWER then at least a couple still on his own cheatsheet. I messaged him asking for his thoughts, so hopefully I can clear it up. With Jeff's steal, the first round is finally locked up. The only real surprise is Ryant Grant, although I would not have predicted BOTH Brady and Manning to go, and Moss as the only WR. After a bunch of messages back and forth with Jeff, I've come to understand that he values Grant much higher in PPR, while the fynasty ranks are NOT PPR. Even with that, he seems to think that Grant will be worth less long term then this year. I can't help but think there's something missing in his methodology there.Wed 3/26, 9pmI checked here this morning fairly early, and only opne or two picks had passed from last night. But then I wasn't able to log back on until around 6PM...WOW. Not only was I on the clock (by an hour), but at least 8 steals happened today, several times the same player more then once. (Reggie Wayne was stolen 3 or 4 times) My Willie Parker pick made it through clean, which was a mild surprise, but not unpleasent. At my turn, I had to go WR, but really didn't see any good ones I could safely steal, especially without a way to lock it. I had hoped to get Andre Johnson, but Reaper used his second round REpick for him, and locked him with his third in the same post. I could have stolen Ocho Cinco, but 4 or 5 others could have restolen him. In the end, I was forced to pick fresh, and will not have a top-notch WR1. At least I got two RB1's instead. I took Brandon Marshall. With this league being PPR, I can't imagine better then a 50/50 to keep him.A couple of guys wasted some steals..Rodys is already down to 2 left. Shadowphunk is the only one with all five left, but I'm not in love with his start (Randy Moss at 1.05, Welker at 2.12, and Carson Palmer in the 3rd...I suppose Palmer might get stolen.) There is a pretty wide disparity between teams right now, with several I really like through two locked picks(myself, Duckboy, OldMilwaukee, Rudy, Reaper), and several I really think are in trouble (Jeter, Shadowphunk, Rudnicki.)Thurs 3/27, 10amSome drama late last night after I wrote in this blog. I had just updated the locked picks thread, and written here when Old Milwaukee PM'd me his third round pick. STEAL REGGIE WAYNE! I had already posted Wayne as a locked pick (with a disclaimer in that thread not to rely on that thread), so I was initially shocked. After I looked back carefully, I found he could steal Wayne. Even better, he could only do so because of how Wayne was stolen multiple times and ultimately wound up with the guy drafting RIGHT AFTER OM in the third....Duckboy. Theoreticly, it is only one pick away from the maximum distance between when a player is first chosen from the player pool, and when he is finally locked on somebodies roster. I was so excited when I realized it wasn't only legal, but nobody could steal him back (everybody else already either owned him or had a chance to steal him) that I actually posted the steal prematurely and had to delete the post. The steal gives OM a dominant start with Addai, Braylon Edwards, and Reggie Wayne. The potential saving grace for the rest of us is the team combo of Wayne/Addai. It was a brilliant steal by OM. I completely missed even the potential of it because I didn't look back that far when determining locked picks, but Duckboy apparently knew it was possible when he first made the steal, and determined it was a nice risk to take. I agree...with all of the traffic in that round, it was possible nobody would notice. If OM did figure it out, he would still be taking his second stud COLT...something many people hate doing in these because it can kill you on the bye. (Speaking of which...why in the world take two RECIEVERS from the same team to start!!!!(Shadow took Moss and Welker.)) Duckboy did, in fact, have a decent backup plan, and his ability to lock up both his 2nd and 3rd on the spot helped him a little. He stole and locked up Holt (hardly a disaster for WR1), and ROY WILLIAMS. I had considered Williams with my last pick, but knew I couldn't hold him. Since williams was the highest WR left for me, I took my 2nd or 3rd rated guy (Marshall) HOPING somebody would steal him, and give me the chance to steal/lock Williams later. SO much for that plan...now I'm praying Marshall goes clean, but that doesn't seem likely.And that's the funny thing about this draft format. Sometimes when you make a steal...you are screwing over somebody BESIDES the person you stole from.11pm:Quiet day. Part of that was me as I held the draft up a while. Got caught with a sick kid, then a sick fiance', and didn't check in. I had been 4 or 5 picks away when I loked around 1:30 or so, but was 6 hours OTC when I looked at 9:30!!Also quiet for lack of steals. The last 8 players drafted have been fresh picks, and like 13 of the last 15. There are a few repicks outstanding, but the tiers now are big enough that most people are going to wait for their turns before using a steal, if then. Brandon Marshall made it through for me without getting stolen. There were only a few players even available for stealing for me in round 4. Since I could lock none, and none seemed much better then what was available in the pool, I chose a fresh pick, Jerricho Cotchery. I considered going QB, but I really want McNabb (I think he's been terribly underrated this year) and I should be able to get him later. Considered TE, but the elite ones are gone...the next five or six are relatively equal. Didn't consider RB for long as I already have two decent ones. So I went WR...you can never have too many decent receivers in these survivor leagues. Probably should have taken another RB, as that was where the best value seemed to be, oddly enough.Fri 3/28, 9:30amNothing significant overnight. A couple fresh picks, and a couple of QB's swiped. Makes me a little uneasy about McNabb, as 7 QB's are gone now, all of them locked up. Thinking Cotchery is likely to make it through too, leaving me limited options if he does. That's one thing I really don't like about this draft. In any other draft, you can reach a little to get somebody you really want. In this one, you have to reach a LOT if you want to gaurentee holding onto somebody. Early fourth round (by this year's early ADP's) is way too early for McNabb, while late fifth is about right. I think McNabb is probably worth an early fourth, but I'm in the vast minority on that, and won't reach. Keeping my fingers crossed........11am:Several more picks in the last couple of hours. Noticed that a top WR went through unmolested (stolen)...OCHO CINCO!! Radballs had taken him at 3.01. TONS of steals/resteals/repicks etc. all the way through the third round into the early fourth. Duckboy was the last one who could have stolen and locked him as a steal, and he took Roy Williams as a fresh pick (and immediately locked him with his 4.01.) A few others could have stolen him with a make-up pick and locked him, but the players they got are at least in the ballpark (Colston, Boldin, Fitzgerald)...a couple others were, at least in my opinion, a lot lower (Holmes.) There were a couple of guys, like me, who could have stolen, but were using fresh picks, and were a long way from locking the steal. Just luck, as nobody had the no-brainer steal except maybe Blue-Kun (Used repick to get Santonio Holmes with his second rounder late in the third.) Duckboy could have, but I can see somebody choosing a fresh pick on Roy Williams instead of using the steal, especially with the natural lock in the same post. Duckboy wasted a couple steals earlier too, and already only has 2 left, making it even more sensible for him to go with Williams. Just one of those lucky, oddball things with this elephant format I guess.11:30am:Radballs just picked to end the fourth. He stole Chris Cooley. That surprised me because Jeff had stolen him 5 or 6 picks earlier. Worse...that's another wasted steal for Jeff, who's already down to 2 left. Cooley robbed twice in the fourth? Can't see him worth that. Poor Jeff! LOL..and he's not real happy about it.9:20pmMade my fifth round pick a little while ago. I took McNabb. No clue whether I can keep him, but I don't like my chances of stealing him next round, and there are no no-brainer RBs or WRs that I could take and hope get stolen. My other thought was Mendenhall. There's at least a chance I could get both of them. It's been somewhat quiet today, with very few steals. In fact, only one steal so far in the fifth round, and no repicks. Actually, only Blu-Kun and Duckboy have outstanding repicks. It's made things easier for me in tracking the draft, but it's a little surprising as most people still have 3 steals, and several have 4. 11:15pm:Several picks since last post, and one steal (Ruds stole Graham from Jeter). Jeter then repicked Mendenhall from the pool. I messaged Jeter; "nice pick. I ALMOST took him myself. Hoped he'd last until after the turn so I might have a shot next round. Of course, if McNabb gets stolen......" his response:"Thanks, After Housh got stolen, I ended up waiting the whole almost 2 rounds to make my repick, so I knew I wanted to try something different this time. I think Anderson may get swiped, but if he does, other guys are using their steals and there are a couple of others I like, so win win, hopefully." MY REPLY AGAIN:"good thinking. If there are several guys you think are close together, there is no sense waiting for your turn for a simple repick. You may entice somebody else into a steal, and if you don't, you still get your first choice, AND keep more options open for your next pick."Not a real big deal, but thought I'd copy those here. Nice strategy thoughts for future elephant rookies (if we ever run this type of draft again)Sun Mar30, midnight:VERY SLOW weekend. All opf the PDSL's are kicking off, but you would think that that would help keep things lively. There were only like 3 picks all day today, and not much better yesterday. One guy almost timed out yesterday (less then 20 min from it), and another was an hour short today. Yet another will timeout at 9 AM if he doesn't pick.I did make a pick late last night (Derrick Mason), and managed to keep McNabb. Real happy about that...I really think he's due for a QB2-3 type year, and he may be the SOD at QB9.Somebody posted something about thinking that five steals is too many for this draft. Not sure I agree with that, but it's worth looking at closer later. The steals have slowed down a lot more then the picks themselves, with only 3 in the fifth round and o1 in the sixth. duckboy is down to 1 left, a few others are at 2, but most have three and 3 of us still have four left.Hopefully, things pick back up tomorrow.Tues, Apr1, 8 am:Was much busier yesterday, and we made good progress. The steals are very slow now, but JeffPas. managed to use this last....foolishly it look sto me. He had stolen Mendenhal without being able to lock him...and Radballs stole him again a few picks later. In retaliation, Jeff stole Rad's 7.1 pick (Bobby Engram) with his 6.13 (makeup pick) AND LAST STEAL, locking him with his 7.4 (Travis Henry). I've had a couple of PM's from Jeff nervous about keeping Henry. I had to point out to him that Radballs could actually steal Henry from him! He isn't likely to as he is strong at RB right now, but he could. There's been a lot of talk in the discussion thread about steals, and several guys saying how the ends have such a big advanatage because of the natural locks on the steals. I just posted this in that thread:Not trying to 
, but I don't get the whine. I have been at the end, and fully understand/appreciate the advantage of such....and the disadvantages. The guys at the end HAVE to use their steals early to get even close to early round value. If not, they will fall behiind very quickly. The only reason Radballs has a steal left is because he went with Brady at the 1.1 pick. We also see that he's in a bind at WR after having a couple of those taken. Played out wisely (few wasted steals), the guys at the end should be out or very low, and the guys in the middle should still have a bunch of steals.From the end, if your seoncd pick gets stolen, it is almost two full rounds before you can safely take and lock another....meaning when the DB's 2.1 selection goes, he never had more then one player he could safely steal at any time UNTIL he was up for his 3.16...not a given to get second round value at that point, and IMPOSSIBLE without executing a steal. Then, he's FORCED to use a fresh pick for his 4.1, so cannot get any extraordinary value there. IE: While the ends have a natural advantage via the natural lock, they also have fewer/less strategy they CAN employ, and are far more vulnerable to position runs/etc. then in any other serpentine draft because they will be out of steals first.The guys in the middle shouldn't be vulnerable to position runs, but have to be far more careful as to who/how they steal. There are never more then a couple guys we in the middle can safely steal on any given pick, but there are ALWAYS guys we can steal. We can ALWAYS get appropriate round value...and if wise, don't have to burn steals to do so. Later, we can make sure that the end guys get caught by position runs. We can, if we choose, make sure they lack a DEF2, or K2, or viable TE2. BUT WE HAVE TO BE PATIENT and that means not stealing a coveted player unless we're sure we can keep him. IN the first couple of rounds, that might also mean taking somebody other then the BPA (though we should never go very far down the list).In short Jeff, you're whining just a little too much. You wasted/burned a couple of steals foolishly, and are the first to be out of them, when you should be among the last. If there was any lesson you should have remembered from last year it was this one: NEVER WASTE A STEAL.I am NOT saying that it's better to be in the middle then the end...far from it. I do prefer the end..but no more so then preferring to be in the top 3 in a normal draft. Being in the center in WE is like being at the 15/16 in a normal draft. There is a disadvantage, but it isn't an overwhelming one as long as you're patient.Now, at this point, I still have 4 steals. I have what I consider to be a strong candidate as the QB1, and two solid RB's in Gore and Parker. I'm not in love with Marshall as my WR1, but Marshall/Cotchery/Mason/Porter looks like a very strong first 4! 11 TE's have already gone, so I'm screwed for a TE1...but also have no reason to rush to get one since there are no good ones left. I have a lot of flexibility at this point!!! I would have liked to get a good QB2, but I probably waited a round too long for that (probably should have gotten one instead of Porter). I'll probably spend the next couple of picks on RBs, but I won't hold myself to that. I really like my start! Also thinking about stealing Aaron Rogers from Pictus cat. It would involve some risk because I can't lock him, but with 4 steals I can afford to take the chance, especially at this point where it won't kill me if he's stolen.10amSent Jeff a PM asking what he thought of me stealing Rogers. I know I've been giving him a hard time about wasted steals, but his risks were well thought out except for the ADP steal in the first, and I 'm mildly surprised he got nailed on every chance he took. (It's made him a bit bitter at the moment though...lol.) I also replied that I couldn't see Radballs stealing his RB since Rad already has 3 or 4 Rb's and is short on WR's. He posted in the discussion thread basicly calling BS, and this PM:
)"Still disagreeing:
.I also did try and warn you that you can't steal everybody. 4 steals this late isn't helping you much.
raft still moving pretty slow...not sure why. Vinatieri was stolen as expected, but only a couple of spots before my next pick (was a makeup pick for shadow). Guess my lucky string of NOT getting robbed has ended. Funny watching a guy like Earnest Wilford get stolen twice, but that's what makes this draft so interesting...the guy you think is a value in mid to late rounds, is often a value to somebody else, even at the price of a steal. Stole RB Chris Johnson (Rook) for my makeup pick, and sealed him with Mason Crosby. Not too sure about rookie RB's, but not too sure about the backups out there anyway.April 10th, 2 PM:Still very slow for some reason...nobody is PMing anybody for picks I guess. Took Stover as my second kicker a little bit ago. Would have preferred to wait a bit, but it's about time for the inevitable kicker run, and I don't want to get caught by it. Elephant is a little fdifferent then the other drafts in this regard. Wait to take one of the last PK's or DSs, and you can easily get robbed and end up with only 1. It's worse with the kickers, cause there aren't 32 definate starters to begin with. Hopefully Stover goes clean so I won't have to worry about it, or burn a steal on a lousy kicker.April 10th, 7pm:Blu Kun just stole David Akers from Jeter! Using a steal to take PK8, when we're only at PK10 or so? A bit strange there...Jeff even posted rofl smiley.April 10th, 11pm:Finally had one of those complete blunders that elephant is becoming famous for. After some side notes, and some elapsed time, Old Swill made a confusing post that had a couple of ":toke:" notes in it, and took a kicker. Then, he PM'd Blu Kun that he was up. Problem is that BK was the guy BEFORE him, not after him this round. BK made a pick before I signed on and saw a problem. BK had neglected to PM OM, who then picked while "puff, puffing", and subsequantly pmed BK back, who then didn't really check the thread very carefully before picking again. Duckboy had two picks skipped, and OM had also managed to skip himself. White elephant may be famous for this type of confusion, but this particular scenario could have playerd out in any draft!April 11th, 1pm:Took Atlanta as my second DST. Doubt it gets robbed, but at DST29, it's a bit risky.April 12th, 1pm:Radballs took a third DST to lead off the 17th round. If soebody doesn't steal it, then somebody will be short a DST. April 13th, 1pm:Some more excitement overnight, again with something that could happen in any drfat though. Fro took Randel El. Problem was that Jeff took Randle-El 2 or 3 rounds earlier. A couple guys jumped it saying there needed to be a penalty for a bad steal. Luckily, I had clarified the rules before we started that all steal attempts had to clearly state steal, or they would be considered simple bad picks. The only "penaly" to impose is that he had to make the pick up from the player pool at any time. Fro complained that I mispelled the name (so his control-F didn't work), but Jeff pointed out that it was spelled Randle by NFL.com. I have no idea which one is correct to be truthful!!!!Meanwhile...Jeter just had ANOTHER KICKER stolen...that's three times now in 2 rounds. I don't get it though. I can see burning a steal to get one of the last safe kickers, but there were still several safe ones available. Debating heavily on where to go with my upcoming pick. Want to go RB again soon, but don't much like the options. Thinking hard about using my last steal to nab Brandon Jackson. Jeff may be sold on Ryan Grant, but I'm not. Jackson didn't light the world on fire last year, but he will almost certainly get another shot to compete for the job this year No other backups look appealing at this point, and we're already 5 or 6 deep on the rookies...I'd have to know where they land to even THINK about any of the rookies that are left....so I guess I've just talked myself into the steal!April 13th, 2:30pm: I did the steal, and soon after road Warriors took Chris Henry. I like Jackson better, but barely. Might have been wiser to go with Henry. Of course, either can (and very well might) get stolen.April 13th, midnight: Good progress today. Hopefully that keeps up. We made the turn, so my Jackson steal appears pretty safe now.April 14th, 1pm:Needed/?wanted? to take a couple more recievers. There are no sure fire vets left, but only a couple of rookies have been taken. this seemd a good spot to take a chance and grab a rookie. I took Doucet. He's a little lower on most guys draft boards, but he's more NFL ready then many of the other rookies, and this is not a dynasty draft. Fiddles took Nate Washington only a minute or two after me. Kind of sucks...that was another guy I had considered, but instead hoped he'd come back to me. We had another bad pick recently. Guys point them out pretty quickly though.April14th, 4pm: LOL...yet ANOTHER bad pick. Starting to see some of the higher profile backups get taken (Brady Quinn just got picked.) We are in the 18th.April 15th, 6pm:The 18th was one of the quieter rounds of the draft. A couple bad picks, but no steals. There's only a few steals left though, as only Rudy had 2 left after 18, and most had none.The schedule came out today, and a couple of guys got screwed by it (of course!) Jeff lost both his QB's. Fro used his last steal on Jacoby Jones (another I had my eye on), only to watch Rudy steal him away again. Don't think Fro is too happy about it! (Some fingers being thrown)April 15th, midnight: After a ton of careful thought, I decided to take Josh Reed at 19.10. Guy has been finishing in the WR70s for four or five years now. Very little upside, but consistant enough to score a few times and prevent zeros. Definately better then WR98! I'm nervous about it though, as I posted a foolish message with my pick: "His upside may be low, but his floor is at least 25 slots better then WR100ish...." That's got to just scream STEAL ME! I've got another plan though, if I need it. Just minutes later, Ruds stole Jacoby Jones with his last steal...the third time Jones was stolen!April 16th,11:30am:Yep, blu-kun agreed with my assessment, and stole him overnight. Used my repick on Eric Parker. He was hurt last year, and is a currently 4th on the depth chart for SanDiego, but had a very good year in 06. I preferred something safer (Reed), but Parker has more upside, and has shown he can do it when healthy. Also strongly considered a KC WR. The only one taken at this point is Bowe. SOMEBODY has to be the #2 there, but who? They will certainly use an early pick on a WR, but rookies usually struggle. The job would go to Devard Darling or Jeff Webb. Neither has ever had a great year, and it's a crap shoot who wins that battle. Sent Jeff a PM on it, asking his thoughts (mostly for curiousity sake as I'm leaning towards TE for the last round). Also considered Avant, but figured that was too much a homer pick. Love his upside, but he'll only realize it if Curtis or Brown gets hurt for a long stretch. I can't wish that on my eagles! So, maybe the homer pick is NOT taking him????? Gotta think about that one.April 16th, 6pm:Old Milwaukee timed out. He's had a rough draft...lol. Pictus cat then STOLE Kyle Boller. Stole boller???? Well, he did get nailed by the byes, with both his starters out week 10. With no other sure starters left to take, he picked Redman in the 19th, and stole Boller in the 20th. Of course, Duckboy only took Boller because his QB's alo shared a bye. I'm ecstatic that I had no bye week problems in this league. I think there may be a few more QB flyers coming...April 16th, 7pm: Though ong and hard about which direction to take this pick in. I'm not confidant in any of the remaining QB's, but did consider taking Kyle Orton for insurance against Grossman....then thought better of it. Chicago may well take a rookie QB, and Orton be relegated to third strong quickly. Thought about another TE, but even if there are TE's capable of being TE25-30, TE 30 is usually still next to worthless at 3 pts a week. Already have five RB's, and love who I have. Seems you can never have too many WRs in these leagues, so went back to them. Jeff and I went back and forth via PMs today about who WR2 in KC will be. He said it would be Darling based on the contract, but I pointed out to him that was suspect because Webb is still on his rookie deal, and Darling just signed as a FA, and not a particularly expensive one for a FA WR. (3yrs, 5mil I think) Neither has ever had a "breakout" year, but I did find a couple nice writeups about Darlings performance for the Ravens late last year when their starters were hurt. Not much of a resume, but it was something to go with KC listing him at #2...so I took him with the following statement: "SOMEBODY has to be the Wr2 in KC. I don't have a ton of confidence in this guy, but he's #2 for now...." Old Milwaukee quoted my post, agreed, and took Webb only 10 minutes later.April 17th, 11:30am:Only a couple of picks left. As predicted, there was a small run of scrub QB's. I'l have to look at the rosters a litle closer to figure out why, because a few of those guys were mild surprises to me (Like Fitzpatrick). I feel kind of ill today, but if I can I'm hoping to finish cleaning the roster thread, and do some quick analyses before posting this "blog" later today. One note though...only Fiddles failed to use all five steals alloted, but he was also robbed less then most (I think..will verify that later.)
Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. 
It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. 
It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
McNabb
It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
It's uncommon for somebody not to like their own team.
