With New Dynasty Leagues about to Draft.... (1 Viewer)

Okay, I've been working on the Dynasty Calculator for a couple of years, but I know that there are limitations.

While I revamp it some over the next few weeks, something dawned on me that I thought would be timely to share.

(Note, I'm going to assume you know the article and calculator, I won't re-hash it again).

The Dynasty Factor ("DF") is the number that describes your league once you put in your league settings into the calculator.

Now, the problem with using this tool for a startup draft is that it was intended to be just for rookie picks.

I've just now figured out how to use it for startups. It will take a moment of math (I'll do that for you in a later version) - but I hope it is worth it to you.

Step 1 - Figure out your league's DF.

Step 2 - Add 1 to the DF.

Step 3 - Divide the answer by 2.

Step 4 - Put that into the DF box (type it in).

Now the calculator should work for your startup draft and give you a good idea of the values you should use.

I hope that helps.

Jeff, a question on this:

It starts giving values of "1" in round 8 & keeps giving values of "1" the rest of the way. Is that intended?

Uruk-Hai said:

Jeff, a question on this:It starts giving values of "1" in round 8 & keeps giving values of "1" the rest of the way. Is that intended?

Click to expand...

After 100 picks, I believe the value goes to nearly zero - so I can see where you'd get a "1".With 14 or 16 teams, that's 98 or 112 picks in 7 rounds - so yes, I can see this as the case.Currently Pick 99's value will equal every pick after it (100+).

Jeff Pasquino said:

Uruk-Hai said:

Jeff, a question on this:It starts giving values of "1" in round 8 & keeps giving values of "1" the rest of the way. Is that intended?

Click to expand...

After 100 picks, I believe the value goes to nearly zero - so I can see where you'd get a "1".With 14 or 16 teams, that's 98 or 112 picks in 7 rounds - so yes, I can see this as the case.Currently Pick 99's value will equal every pick after it (100+).

Click to expand...

I plugged a Zealots league info in - 636 picks in all - so the last 537 are considered even then.....Not busting your nads, just wanted to make sure I was seeing what I was intended to see (i.e., that I wasn't doing something wrong).

Jeff Pasquino said:

Uruk-Hai said:

Jeff, a question on this:It starts giving values of "1" in round 8 & keeps giving values of "1" the rest of the way. Is that intended?

Click to expand...

After 100 picks, I believe the value goes to nearly zero - so I can see where you'd get a "1".With 14 or 16 teams, that's 98 or 112 picks in 7 rounds - so yes, I can see this as the case.Currently Pick 99's value will equal every pick after it (100+).

Click to expand...

Is there a way to fix that? It just seems somewhat limited. I love the product otherwise, just trying to see if we can improve it. If this is a non-IDP league, pick #100 is someone like Vine Young, who I certainly value higher than players like Shaun Hill, Derrick Ward, etc.

Jeff Pasquino said:

Okay, I've been working on the Dynasty Calculator for a couple of years, but I know that there are limitations.

While I revamp it some over the next few weeks, something dawned on me that I thought would be timely to share.

(Note, I'm going to assume you know the article and calculator, I won't re-hash it again).

The Dynasty Factor ("DF") is the number that describes your league once you put in your league settings into the calculator.

Now, the problem with using this tool for a startup draft is that it was intended to be just for rookie picks.

I've just now figured out how to use it for startups. It will take a moment of math (I'll do that for you in a later version) - but I hope it is worth it to you.

Step 1 - Figure out your league's DF.

Step 2 - Add 1 to the DF.

Step 3 - Divide the answer by 2.

Step 4 - Put that into the DF box (type it in).

Now the calculator should work for your startup draft and give you a good idea of the values you should use.

I hope that helps.

Click to expand...

Or, since the draft is this year, you could use your perceived values of the real players you expect to be available at those picks, and get the real answer and not an approximation.

GregR said:

Jeff Pasquino said:

Okay, I've been working on the Dynasty Calculator for a couple of years, but I know that there are limitations.

While I revamp it some over the next few weeks, something dawned on me that I thought would be timely to share.

(Note, I'm going to assume you know the article and calculator, I won't re-hash it again).

The Dynasty Factor ("DF") is the number that describes your league once you put in your league settings into the calculator.

Now, the problem with using this tool for a startup draft is that it was intended to be just for rookie picks.

I've just now figured out how to use it for startups. It will take a moment of math (I'll do that for you in a later version) - but I hope it is worth it to you.

Step 1 - Figure out your league's DF.

Step 2 - Add 1 to the DF.

Step 3 - Divide the answer by 2.

Step 4 - Put that into the DF box (type it in).

Now the calculator should work for your startup draft and give you a good idea of the values you should use.

I hope that helps.

Click to expand...

Or, since the draft is this year, you could use your perceived values of the real players you expect to be available at those picks, and get the real answer and not an approximation.

Click to expand...

Greg,Rather than , accept the calculator for what it is - a tool that is an independent opinion of relative value - just like any other pick calculator or draft pick chart.

If you don't like the concept, don't use the calculator.

FUBAR said:

Jeff Pasquino said:

Uruk-Hai said:

Jeff, a question on this:It starts giving values of "1" in round 8 & keeps giving values of "1" the rest of the way. Is that intended?

Click to expand...

After 100 picks, I believe the value goes to nearly zero - so I can see where you'd get a "1".With 14 or 16 teams, that's 98 or 112 picks in 7 rounds - so yes, I can see this as the case.Currently Pick 99's value will equal every pick after it (100+).

Click to expand...

Is there a way to fix that? It just seems somewhat limited. I love the product otherwise, just trying to see if we can improve it. If this is a non-IDP league, pick #100 is someone like Vine Young, who I certainly value higher than players like Shaun Hill, Derrick Ward, etc.

Click to expand...

I will look at this in the future, but understand that this version (1c) was done using the FBG calculator for base values.I will see if I can make it deeper.

Jeff Pasquino said:

GregR said:

Jeff Pasquino said:

Okay, I've been working on the Dynasty Calculator for a couple of years, but I know that there are limitations.

While I revamp it some over the next few weeks, something dawned on me that I thought would be timely to share.

(Note, I'm going to assume you know the article and calculator, I won't re-hash it again).

The Dynasty Factor ("DF") is the number that describes your league once you put in your league settings into the calculator.

Now, the problem with using this tool for a startup draft is that it was intended to be just for rookie picks.

I've just now figured out how to use it for startups. It will take a moment of math (I'll do that for you in a later version) - but I hope it is worth it to you.

Step 1 - Figure out your league's DF.

Step 2 - Add 1 to the DF.

Step 3 - Divide the answer by 2.

Step 4 - Put that into the DF box (type it in).

Now the calculator should work for your startup draft and give you a good idea of the values you should use.

I hope that helps.

Click to expand...

Or, since the draft is this year, you could use your perceived values of the real players you expect to be available at those picks, and get the real answer and not an approximation.

Click to expand...

Greg,Rather than , accept the calculator for what it is - a tool that is an independent opinion of relative value - just like any other pick calculator or draft pick chart.

If you don't like the concept, don't use the calculator.

Click to expand...

I don't want to either, but then I wasn't the one who brought it back up. I thought we went down this road and you finally agreed it didn't make sense to guesstimate value for the present draft when the owner's perceived values are actually known. When I see someone advocating a poor way to do something, I'm going to speak up whether it's misusing historical stats in a method like AVT, or this.Suggesting someone do this for a current draft is like saying if you want to decide on purchasing some item, instead of figuring out if the real price fits into your budget, you should see if some estimated price fits in your budget. That's fine if you're talking about buying the item 3 years from now when you won't know the price. But when you can look at the actual price tag now, that is not a good way to do it.

If someone is debating trading picks for this year that would amount to Vince Young for Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe, just ask yourself if that's a trade you'd want to make given the players available at those picks. Don't waste your time estimating some other value that may not reflect your actual beliefs about this year... not when your actual beliefs in that value are available.

I understand you spent a lot of time on what you made. It's great that you cared about FF enough to do that. But it's wrong to advocate misusing it in situations where it clearly is not the best method.

GregR said:

Jeff Pasquino said:

GregR said:

Jeff Pasquino said:

Okay, I've been working on the Dynasty Calculator for a couple of years, but I know that there are limitations.

While I revamp it some over the next few weeks, something dawned on me that I thought would be timely to share.

(Note, I'm going to assume you know the article and calculator, I won't re-hash it again).

The Dynasty Factor ("DF") is the number that describes your league once you put in your league settings into the calculator.

Now, the problem with using this tool for a startup draft is that it was intended to be just for rookie picks.

I've just now figured out how to use it for startups. It will take a moment of math (I'll do that for you in a later version) - but I hope it is worth it to you.

Step 1 - Figure out your league's DF.

Step 2 - Add 1 to the DF.

Step 3 - Divide the answer by 2.

Step 4 - Put that into the DF box (type it in).

Now the calculator should work for your startup draft and give you a good idea of the values you should use.

I hope that helps.

Click to expand...

Or, since the draft is this year, you could use your perceived values of the real players you expect to be available at those picks, and get the real answer and not an approximation.

Click to expand...

Greg,Rather than , accept the calculator for what it is - a tool that is an independent opinion of relative value - just like any other pick calculator or draft pick chart.

If you don't like the concept, don't use the calculator.

Click to expand...

I don't want to either, but then I wasn't the one who brought it back up. I thought we went down this road and you finally agreed it didn't make sense to guesstimate value for the present draft when the owner's perceived values are actually known. When I see someone advocating a poor way to do something, I'm going to speak up whether it's misusing historical stats in a method like AVT, or this.Suggesting someone do this for a current draft is like saying if you want to decide on purchasing some item, instead of figuring out if the real price fits into your budget, you should see if some estimated price fits in your budget. That's fine if you're talking about buying the item 3 years from now when you won't know the price. But when you can look at the actual price tag now, that is not a good way to do it.

If someone is debating trading picks for this year that would amount to Vince Young for Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe, just ask yourself if that's a trade you'd want to make given the players available at those picks. Don't waste your time estimating some other value that may not reflect your actual beliefs about this year... not when your actual beliefs in that value are available.

I understand you spent a lot of time on what you made. It's great that you cared about FF enough to do that. But it's wrong to advocate misusing it in situations where it clearly is not the best method.

Click to expand...

Just so I'm clear, you are never advocating using a tool like this?This includes:

1. A redraft pick calculator

2. An NFL pick chart

Whether you like it or not, some people use them. Why? Well, in the absence of asking other person's opinions (and not knowing how to value their opinions against your own), a tool is often a good instrument to use.

If I normally talk to my buddy for several hours before I make a decision, that's fine - but if a deal comes to me and I have 2-3 minutes to say yes or no, I'd like some way to get another opinion. I don't have to agree with it, but it is an opinion.

The other nice part of having a tool like this is that you can work out multiple scenarios and see what the tool says is fair. Disagree or not, it is useful.

Just like the Draft Dominator, you can mock your own drafts by yourself. Will it be ideal or match what you'd expect if you let the DD draft the other teams? Maybe not, but there is still value in the exercise.

ETA - I also get a number of requests to add this functionality if I could, so I am. That tells me that there is a demand for this kind of tool for some.

No, that's not what I said. I'll state it more simply.

* Using a calculator for a future year draft pick trade is about as good a methodology as you'll find for evaluating such a trade.

* Using a calculator for the current year's draft pick trades, as the instructions in this thread are for, is definitely not the best methodology for evaluating such a trade.

When it's the current year, and especially in an initial dynasty as mentioned in this thread, there are other important components of value to your team that this kind of calculator isn't made to account for that are critical to your decision making. Not only do the picks you traded change, but other picks not part of the trade are likely to change. For example, you may not have to spend as early of picks on backup RBs because the trade netted you a higher tier RB. Those picks that would have been backup RBs now become improved starters at other positions, an important component of the trade's value to you, but something a calculator of this type can't capture. A change in your draft picks is likely to ripple down in major ways through the rest of your draft. You need to take that into account if you're going to make an informed decision.

You can't work with those components of value to your team in the trade when it's future years, so a calculator is fine. But in the current year, with players known and your perceptions of them known, a good look at whether it is a good trade for you needs to include more than the components of value that a calculator is made to handle. What might seem beneficial when comparing the traded picks could actually result in a worse team, or vice versa.

You're spot on when you talk about how some people use this. That's where I'm trying to draw attention. You've got a useful tool, but it will be and is being misused if you don't explain what situations it is and isn't appropriate for. You can liken it to the original VBD stuff... it's not enough to just dump the Excel tool out there as if it will work for everything. We need to point out that the tool's output isn't appropriate when you get down to the backups, and an adjustment needs to be made.

Rather than just provide the tool, why not provide a complete solution of how to evaluate a dynasty trade? Not just in the future year situations where the calculator is a good fit, but in the current year situations where other aspects of the trade's value require a method other than the calculator to be used.

"Deja-View....All Over Again!"

All this seems vaguely familiar...as in a lot of water over this bridge.

I posted the calc in a new Z-Dynasty Classic League...in an attempt to insulate the NewBees from the shark attacks.

So, it has it's limitations but it's still a good tool to try to keep a semblance of order in a start up Dynasty Draft.

Using the Z-Mix (53 roster, 12 teamer, 17 starters, flex between 1 RB/WR) the DL comes out to be 3.455 vs. 3.606...or 7.061/2 = 3.531.

Take that + 1 and divide by 2......3.531 + 1.000 = 4.351/2 = 2.265.

I'll put all that stuff in the thread, try to explain my way out. But, what's my answer when eleven guys ask me why I take and average of the mix and add one and divide by two? (This is beginning to sound just like the conversations I have with my County Tax accessor as we head towards our date with the State Supreme Court!)

I think what's happening is that I'm trying to spread the low range over more draft rounds. Instead of the calc bottoming out after some 100 (+/-) picks, I'm extending it's useful life over more rounds.....instead of it being useful for 6-7 rounds in a twelve teamer, it's use is extended to say the 13-14th round....right?

In a 53 round draft, that's not much of a useful life but it's better than nothing!

Toads said:

"Deja-View....All Over Again!"

All this seems vaguely familiar...as in a lot of water over this bridge.

I posted the calc in a new Z-Dynasty Classic League...in an attempt to insulate the NewBees from the shark attacks.

So, it has it's limitations but it's still a good tool to try to keep a semblance of order in a start up Dynasty Draft.

Using the Z-Mix (53 roster, 12 teamer, 17 starters, flex between 1 RB/WR) the DL comes out to be 3.455 vs. 3.606...or 7.061/2 = 3.531.

Take that + 1 and divide by 2......3.531 + 1.000 = 4.351/2 = 2.265.

I'll put all that stuff in the thread, try to explain my way out. But, what's my answer when eleven guys ask me why I take and average of the mix and add one and divide by two? (This is beginning to sound just like the conversations I have with my County Tax accessor as we head towards our date with the State Supreme Court!)

I think what's happening is that I'm trying to spread the low range over more draft rounds. Instead of the calc bottoming out after some 100 (+/-) picks, I'm extending it's useful life over more rounds.....instead of it being useful for 6-7 rounds in a twelve teamer, it's use is extended to say the 13-14th round....right?

In a 53 round draft, that's not much of a useful life but it's better than nothing!

Click to expand...

Occam's Razor says that the simplest approach is often the best.For a redraft league, the DF should be (and is) 1. That means there's no dynasty factor to a redraft league.

For a dynasty rookie league, you get a DF, usually in the range of 3 to 5.

The "truth", if there is such a thing, for a startup draft is that the answer for a DF for that would be between the two (i.e. between "1" and "3-5").

So, I took the simplistic approach and just said take the average of the two.

You might be able to argue one way or the other (i.e. closer to "1" or closer to "3-5"), but in absence of a good argument in either direction I say take the average.

I hope that helps.

Toads said:

I think what's happening is that I'm trying to spread the low range over more draft rounds. Instead of the calc bottoming out after some 100 (+/-) picks, I'm extending it's useful life over more rounds.....instead of it being useful for 6-7 rounds in a twelve teamer, it's use is extended to say the 13-14th round....right?

In a 53 round draft, that's not much of a useful life but it's better than nothing!

Click to expand...

By the way, working on version 2a.Flex positions added, as well as picks to 190.