Jene Bramel
Footballguy
A point-by-point case for Jerod Mayo
1. He’s arguably the best overall talent in the class.
Arguably. Rivers is right there. I’m a big believer in opportunity being a major factor in box score production, but the reverse corollary warrants mentioning – careful when ignoring talent due to a perceived lack of opportunity.
Which begs the question: Is there really significantly less opportunity in New England? Or are there other factors in play that have depressed the opportunity?
I think there’s an argument to be made that the perception that the Patriot ILB position is a blackhole may be misleading.
Consider two significant facts regarding the Patriot ILB situation since 2004:
***Raw tackle opportunity since 2007: 31st, 30th, 25th, 24th
***Frequent injuries prompted rotation at the ILB positions
A reasonable person could well conclude the following:
2. New England’s previously poor tackle opportunity likely to increase.
The tackle opportunity numbers are clear. The Patriots (along with the Steelers FWIW) have faced well below an average amount of tackle opportunity in recent seasons. Not only that, much of the decreased opportunity is due to a lack of run support chances.
In 2007, the Patriots faced a league fewest 22.5 rush attempts per game. Further, only 40.6% of their defensive snaps were rushing plays by the opposing offense. By comparison, the league average was 45.1%.
There’s no question that a fair amount of that is due to New England’s amazing offensive production. That offensive production dropped in the second half of 2008. And some of it has to be due to a solid defense – a defense that lost three fourths of its starting secondary, a solid all-around rush OLB and their primary run stuffing ILB.
Plenty of upside to be found with regard to raw tackle opportunity.
3. There may not be as much rotation at the ILB spots in 2008.
This one’s a tougher sell. Still, it’s worth noting that the Pats seemed to be content to scrap the Adalius Thomas ILB experiment late last season. It appears that Rosie Colvin isn’t on the radar with a rumored severe Achilles injury. Junior Seau was a major rotational factor. That means the three of the primary culprits in the rotation over the past couple of seasons aren’t in the picture. What’s left? Tedy Bruschi, who played less last season than in recent memory despite being healthy all year long, with still another year on his body. And Victor Hobson, a replacement level ILB at best.
4. Belichick drafted him.
In the first round. After leaving similar ILB talents on the board in prior seasons despite similar needs. You may argue that Belichick likes to bring his rookies along slowly in favor of veteran players. But guys like Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren all got significant playing time during their rookie seasons. You may argue that Belichick will want to break him in slowly in a complicated defense. But the weak inside linebacker position isn’t as complicated as it might appear, Mayo has above-average instincts and he’ll have Bruschi to ease him into the huddle.
5. The scheme isn’t that bad.
We spent a lot of time discussing the myths that 3-4 ILB make for bad box score players last summer. Belichick’s scheme isn’t enough of a 1-gap scheme to make it a slam dunk, but there’ve been a number of players (albeit with better opportunity) who’ve had solid production out of this playbook when in every down roles – Andra Davis, D’Qwell Jackson, David Harris.
Bottom line: I’m not arguing that Mayo is a lock for 95 solos every season, but I think it’s worth considering the above before you dismiss him as a 85-90 solo player who struggles to crack the top 25 in any given year. I am arguing that you might want to think twice before taking a lesser talent like Jordon Dizon, who might struggle behind a weak DT group in a scheme that isn't as friendly as some other 4-3 schemes to the MLB, or Curtis Lofton, who isn't a lock to be an every down backer and will have more than a little friendly competition for tackles on the outside.
In some ways, this season's crop is a real tester. It was easy to pimp Ryans, Willis, Sims, Posluszny and Beason. All looked very likely to end up in a featured role and few questioned their talent. I think there's an argument against the future prospects of any of the top seven backers in this group. If you chose Sims over Ryans or Beason over Willis, you didn't lose much.
That won't be the case this year.
1. He’s arguably the best overall talent in the class.
Arguably. Rivers is right there. I’m a big believer in opportunity being a major factor in box score production, but the reverse corollary warrants mentioning – careful when ignoring talent due to a perceived lack of opportunity.
Which begs the question: Is there really significantly less opportunity in New England? Or are there other factors in play that have depressed the opportunity?
I think there’s an argument to be made that the perception that the Patriot ILB position is a blackhole may be misleading.
Consider two significant facts regarding the Patriot ILB situation since 2004:
***Raw tackle opportunity since 2007: 31st, 30th, 25th, 24th
***Frequent injuries prompted rotation at the ILB positions
A reasonable person could well conclude the following:
2. New England’s previously poor tackle opportunity likely to increase.
The tackle opportunity numbers are clear. The Patriots (along with the Steelers FWIW) have faced well below an average amount of tackle opportunity in recent seasons. Not only that, much of the decreased opportunity is due to a lack of run support chances.
In 2007, the Patriots faced a league fewest 22.5 rush attempts per game. Further, only 40.6% of their defensive snaps were rushing plays by the opposing offense. By comparison, the league average was 45.1%.
There’s no question that a fair amount of that is due to New England’s amazing offensive production. That offensive production dropped in the second half of 2008. And some of it has to be due to a solid defense – a defense that lost three fourths of its starting secondary, a solid all-around rush OLB and their primary run stuffing ILB.
Plenty of upside to be found with regard to raw tackle opportunity.
3. There may not be as much rotation at the ILB spots in 2008.
This one’s a tougher sell. Still, it’s worth noting that the Pats seemed to be content to scrap the Adalius Thomas ILB experiment late last season. It appears that Rosie Colvin isn’t on the radar with a rumored severe Achilles injury. Junior Seau was a major rotational factor. That means the three of the primary culprits in the rotation over the past couple of seasons aren’t in the picture. What’s left? Tedy Bruschi, who played less last season than in recent memory despite being healthy all year long, with still another year on his body. And Victor Hobson, a replacement level ILB at best.
4. Belichick drafted him.
In the first round. After leaving similar ILB talents on the board in prior seasons despite similar needs. You may argue that Belichick likes to bring his rookies along slowly in favor of veteran players. But guys like Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren all got significant playing time during their rookie seasons. You may argue that Belichick will want to break him in slowly in a complicated defense. But the weak inside linebacker position isn’t as complicated as it might appear, Mayo has above-average instincts and he’ll have Bruschi to ease him into the huddle.
5. The scheme isn’t that bad.
We spent a lot of time discussing the myths that 3-4 ILB make for bad box score players last summer. Belichick’s scheme isn’t enough of a 1-gap scheme to make it a slam dunk, but there’ve been a number of players (albeit with better opportunity) who’ve had solid production out of this playbook when in every down roles – Andra Davis, D’Qwell Jackson, David Harris.
Bottom line: I’m not arguing that Mayo is a lock for 95 solos every season, but I think it’s worth considering the above before you dismiss him as a 85-90 solo player who struggles to crack the top 25 in any given year. I am arguing that you might want to think twice before taking a lesser talent like Jordon Dizon, who might struggle behind a weak DT group in a scheme that isn't as friendly as some other 4-3 schemes to the MLB, or Curtis Lofton, who isn't a lock to be an every down backer and will have more than a little friendly competition for tackles on the outside.
In some ways, this season's crop is a real tester. It was easy to pimp Ryans, Willis, Sims, Posluszny and Beason. All looked very likely to end up in a featured role and few questioned their talent. I think there's an argument against the future prospects of any of the top seven backers in this group. If you chose Sims over Ryans or Beason over Willis, you didn't lose much.
That won't be the case this year.
In all seriousness, I get the concerns with Mayo and he's clearly got an uphill climb in opportunity vs the other two top talents here. But I think it's early to assume that Rivers and/or Lofton are clearly every down MLBs before Mayo settles into his own nice every down role. Or it could just be me stubbornly sticking to my first impressions. 
In all seriousness, I get the concerns with Mayo and he's clearly got an uphill climb in opportunity vs the other two top talents here. But I think it's early to assume that Rivers and/or Lofton are clearly every down MLBs before Mayo settles into his own nice every down role. Or it could just be me stubbornly sticking to my first impressions. 
That's part of it for sure for me. Seeing plenty of early impressions with Connor above Mayo, though. Be interesting to see some of Tick/Spec1alk's ADP data when the Zealots start drafting.
Passed a physical somewhere or other, so the Achilles issue may be a non-starter.
In all seriousness, I get the concerns with Mayo and he's clearly got an uphill climb in opportunity vs the other two top talents here. But I think it's early to assume that Rivers and/or Lofton are clearly every down MLBs before Mayo settles into his own nice every down role. Or it could just be me stubbornly sticking to my first impressions. 
In all seriousness, I get the concerns with Mayo and he's clearly got an uphill climb in opportunity vs the other two top talents here. But I think it's early to assume that Rivers and/or Lofton are clearly every down MLBs before Mayo settles into his own nice every down role. Or it could just be me stubbornly sticking to my first impressions. 
