What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Houston RBs (1 Viewer)

B Maverick

B Maverick

Footballguy
Ok, so Houston passes on the highly touted rookie RBs and is looking to move forward with Ahman Green and Chris Brown. They did draft Steve Slaton (possible 3rd down back and return guy?) to go with Darius Walker (who looked decent late last year), Adimchinobe Echemandu, and Chris Taylor. Gone is Ron Dayne...

A lot of debates before the draft on Houston being the ideal situation for a back. Now what is the value of those currently on the roster?

Ahman Green and Chris Brown have history of injuries, are they both healthy??

Can any be counted on as RB3 in start 2 leagues or are they simply emergency bye week guys if you have no other options?

Thoughts???

 
Ahman Green all day long here.

Slaton will be the 3rd down / receiver guy.

Chris Brown will get some work, but if Green can handle the load then he's the #1 guy by far.

Everything I've seen in the offseason says he's ready to go.

 
perry147 said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Ahman Green all day long here.

Slaton will be the 3rd down / receiver guy.

Chris Brown will get some work, but if Green can handle the load then he's the #1 guy by far.

Everything I've seen in the offseason says he's ready to go.
Click to expand...
can or can't?
Click to expand...
If Green is 100% healthy, he's the guy to own.Chris Brown is insurance.

Slaton will get some work, especially as a receiver, and will be the guy to own for the future after the vets are put out to pasture (poss. next year).

 
First of all Alexander will not be a Texan in 08, not unless something unforseen happens in TC and he is still unsigned.

Green's going to be given first crack, but I think his days are numbered. He just can't stay healthy. Thing is, neither can his insurance policy Chris Brown.

I believe Slaton in due time is planned to be utilized as diagramed, but I maintain he isn't very good and won't do much in the league. 3rd down/CoP/returner is his ceiling, his fantasy value is limited.

I believe the Texans are high on Taylor and Walker and either or both will significantly contribute at some point (I think Echemandu - sp.) is no longer on the team though. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Basically, I don't know what their ADP's will end up being, but none of these guys will be worth anything more than a late round pick. Whoever seems to be "the guy" for the week should be a solid start though (the coaching staff additions, scheme, and improved OLine should yield solid fantasy production).

Depending on how deep your league is all of them have value (Slaton - PPR only), you must be prepared to ride the roller coaster though. There will probably be a new starting RB each week, as this is a Shanahan run team. Whoever that guy is should be a solid start that week though.

 
It will be a lot like last year.

Green will be largely ineffective and oft-injured. His last good fantasy year was longer ago than SA's.

Brown will do what he always does: look like a world-beater for 2 games and then disappear under a cloud of injury for the rest of the year.

Walker and Slaton will comprise a very ineffective rushing attack, with Green getting just enough carries to make both completely useless, even as bye-week filler.

 
Echemandu is no longer on the team. The Texans have given no indication they are even the slightest bit interested in Alexander.

If Ahman Green can string at least 10-12 healthy games together he will be very good value in redraft. Otherwise, expect yet another rotating starter depending on health and performance on the field. Whoever starts will likely see the majority of carries in a game. Slaton has an outside chance to surprise, but the GM and coach are both describing him as a 3rd down, COP back.

Next year is a big ? mark. If Green bounces back this year I would expect him to be restructured and kept. If not, he will likely be cut due to salary issues. I would guess that the Texans would bring someone in via FA again instead of going draft, but next offseason is a long way away so it's hard to say.

 
Green will not bounce back. If he averages 60 yds a game I will be impressed.

IMO, the smart play is to leave this situation alone. Let someone else waste 2-3 roster spots trying to get average production at best.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
MAC_32 said:
First of all Alexander will not be a Texan in 08, not unless something unforseen happens in TC and he is still unsigned.Green's going to be given first crack, but I think his days are numbered. He just can't stay healthy. Thing is, neither can his insurance policy Chris Brown.I believe Slaton in due time is planned to be utilized as diagramed, but I maintain he isn't very good and won't do much in the league. 3rd down/CoP/returner is his ceiling, his fantasy value is limited.I believe the Texans are high on Taylor and Walker and either or both will significantly contribute at some point (I think Echemandu - sp.) is no longer on the team though. Correct me if I'm wrong.Basically, I don't know what their ADP's will end up being, but none of these guys will be worth anything more than a late round pick. Whoever seems to be "the guy" for the week should be a solid start though (the coaching staff additions, scheme, and improved OLine should yield solid fantasy production).Depending on how deep your league is all of them have value (Slaton - PPR only), you must be prepared to ride the roller coaster though. There will probably be a new starting RB each week, as this is a Shanahan run team. Whoever that guy is should be a solid start that week though.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: This is dead on.
 
Andy Dufresne said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Ahman Green all day long here.Slaton will be the 3rd down / receiver guy.Chris Brown will get some work, but if Green can handle the load then he's the #1 guy by far.Everything I've seen in the offseason says he's ready to go.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
:lmao: I'm with Pasquino here.
Click to expand...
I believe the humor BSS finds here is purely based on timing (I just drafted AGreen in SSL1).Pure chance that this thread started today. I've been high on AGreen all offseason and in my rankings, and drafted him in several drafts going back to February. :popcorn:
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Andy Dufresne said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Ahman Green all day long here.Slaton will be the 3rd down / receiver guy.Chris Brown will get some work, but if Green can handle the load then he's the #1 guy by far.Everything I've seen in the offseason says he's ready to go.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
:lmao: I'm with Pasquino here.
Click to expand...
I believe the humor BSS finds here is purely based on timing (I just drafted AGreen in SSL1).Pure chance that this thread started today. I've been high on AGreen all offseason and in my rankings, and drafted him in several drafts going back to February. :popcorn:
Click to expand...
Ah I see. Then I'll add to his laughter by saying I just took him in round 20 in Zealots58. :lol:
 
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
Really? Worse than 6 games, 260 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.7 ypc? Name a starting RB in this league that would be worse than that. Maybe, if Cedric starts over Forte, he would be worse...Bills? nopePatriots? nopeDolphins? nopeJets? nopeRavens? nopeBengals? nopeBrowns? nopeSteelers? nopeColts? nopeJaguars? nopeTitans? nopeBroncos? nopeChiefs? nopeRaiders? nopeChargers? nopeCowboys? nopeGiants? nopeEagles? nopeRedskins? nopeBears? nope (unless Ced starts, then probably still nope)Lions? nope (yes, would take Smith or Bell over Green)Packers? nopeVikings? nopeFalcons? nopePanthers? nopeSaints? nopeBucs? nope (would take Graham over Green all day long)Cards? nope49ers? nopeSeahawks? possible, but I'd rather have JJRams? nopethere you have it. Worst RB situation in the NFL, with only the Seahawks competing for the last spot. Can anyone honestly tell me they would rather have Green over JJ, or Forte? Hell, even Benson?
 
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree. Here are his rankings the last three seasons:2005 - 70th2006 - 15th2007 - 64thTack on the fact that he is on the wrong side of 30, has a bum knee and stuck on a team with other options at RB makes him borderline undraftable.BTW, I had him as my #3 in a 12 teamer last season. :confused:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
sholditch said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
Really? Worse than 6 games, 260 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.7 ypc?there you have it. Worst RB situation in the NFL, with only the Seahawks competing for the last spot. Can anyone honestly tell me they would rather have Green over JJ, or Forte? Hell, even Benson?
Click to expand...
I appreciate that you took the time to go through every team in the league. But two things - 1)Just because I said you could do worse, doesn't mean I don't t think you can do better and 2)Why are you basing your comparison on last year's 6 game performance? If you don't expect him to be healthy, then I agree you should stay away. If, like me, you expect that he will be, then he's worth a shot for a guy that could give somewhere around 800/6.
ukshane said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree. Here are his rankings the last three seasons:2005 - 70th

2006 - 15th

2007 - 64th

Tack on the fact that he is on the wrong side of 30, has a bum knee and stuck on a team with other options at RB makes him borderline undraftable.

BTW, I had him as my #3 in a 12 teamer last season. :confused:
Click to expand...
Again, two of those three years were injury years with the third year making him a good RB3 option. The "other options" than Green are marginally better than Green if you assume injury and not even close if you assume a healthy Green.

It all comes down to how much nerve you have for his injuries.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
sholditch said:
Green will not bounce back. If he averages 60 yds a game I will be impressed.

IMO, the smart play is to leave this situation alone. Let someone else waste 2-3 roster spots trying to get average production at best.
Click to expand...
This is what nails it for me. I think in order to nail any production down from the running game in Houston you will need to use at least 2 roster spots to do so. Playing only in dynasty leagues I can think of plenty of prospects I would rather have than these guys on my squad....
 
TheFanatic said:
sholditch said:
Green will not bounce back. If he averages 60 yds a game I will be impressed.

IMO, the smart play is to leave this situation alone. Let someone else waste 2-3 roster spots trying to get average production at best.
Click to expand...
This is what nails it for me. I think in order to nail any production down from the running game in Houston you will need to use at least 2 roster spots to do so. Playing only in dynasty leagues I can think of plenty of prospects I would rather have than these guys on my squad....
Click to expand...
Pretty sure that we're talking this season coming, exclusively for Green's value.

 
sholditch said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
Really? Worse than 6 games, 260 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.7 ypc? Name a starting RB in this league that would be worse than that. Maybe, if Cedric starts over Forte, he would be worse...Bills? nopePatriots? nopeDolphins? nopeJets? nopeRavens? nopeBengals? nopeBrowns? nopeSteelers? nopeColts? nopeJaguars? nopeTitans? nopeBroncos? nopeChiefs? nopeRaiders? nopeChargers? nopeCowboys? nopeGiants? nopeEagles? nopeRedskins? nopeBears? nope (unless Ced starts, then probably still nope)Lions? nope (yes, would take Smith or Bell over Green)Packers? nopeVikings? nopeFalcons? nopePanthers? nopeSaints? nopeBucs? nope (would take Graham over Green all day long)Cards? nope49ers? nopeSeahawks? possible, but I'd rather have JJRams? nopethere you have it. Worst RB situation in the NFL, with only the Seahawks competing for the last spot. Can anyone honestly tell me they would rather have Green over JJ, or Forte? Hell, even Benson?
Click to expand...
Breaking down the conversation team-by-team makes your argument. Using the POV of fantasy rosters will make my point siding with JPasquino and ADufrense. 10 teamers use rb21-rb30, 12 teamers use rb25-34 to fill flex or rb3 on fantasy squads. Ahman can be a border line 30 rb. Greens production last season was very limited in game, not finishing many of those games, leaving at random times(1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarter). Houston offense will produce respectable rb numbers, unfortunately it may be spread across 2-3 rbs. Im hoping Chris Brown emerges as the primary carrier. But Ahman does have the inside line. FFG redraft ranking place him at rb38, but JP/AD have optimistic views of his body/performance. Finally, when you consider the wr options from wr20-wr34 to start at flex...the pickings are generally hit or miss. Taking from the ffg redraft wr rankings. I could easily see people starting ahman over any of these guys. Harrison and chambers are my personal exceptions. Maybe ward, cotch and Coles can make me think otherwise at times. Cothcery, Coles, Ward, harrison, sant moss, Roddy white, Javon Walker, Bernard Berrian, driver, chambers and galloway, mason, kevin curtis, not to mention the wrs inside the top 40-45. Should Ahman and Chris Brown fall very late in drafts there can be some decent value in an upcoming offense with better stability at qb. Schuab and Rosenfels shared quite a bit of PT last season(i believe schaub was injured)
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
TheFanatic said:
sholditch said:
Green will not bounce back. If he averages 60 yds a game I will be impressed.

IMO, the smart play is to leave this situation alone. Let someone else waste 2-3 roster spots trying to get average production at best.
Click to expand...
This is what nails it for me. I think in order to nail any production down from the running game in Houston you will need to use at least 2 roster spots to do so. Playing only in dynasty leagues I can think of plenty of prospects I would rather have than these guys on my squad....
Click to expand...
Pretty sure that we're talking this season coming, exclusively for Green's value.
Click to expand...
Another reason to avoid the who Texan backfield. I don't see any value after this year at all. And not much this year. Slaton doesn't seem like the guy to start after 2008. I can't really see Chris Brown doing so either. Stranger things have happened. Maybe Chris Brown gets his head out of his butt due to the change of scenery. Maybe not. Darius Walker? Meh. So for me, it's avoid like the plague unless I'm making a playoff run and one of these guys gets hot down the stretch and the owner wants picks to improve his team for the long term and I want the player to help a playoff run....

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
TheFanatic said:
sholditch said:
Green will not bounce back. If he averages 60 yds a game I will be impressed.

IMO, the smart play is to leave this situation alone. Let someone else waste 2-3 roster spots trying to get average production at best.
Click to expand...
This is what nails it for me. I think in order to nail any production down from the running game in Houston you will need to use at least 2 roster spots to do so. Playing only in dynasty leagues I can think of plenty of prospects I would rather have than these guys on my squad....
Click to expand...
Pretty sure that we're talking this season coming, exclusively for Green's value.
Click to expand...
I'm not even sure about that. Depends on where you get him, who is on your roster, and where you're going to be drafting in the rookie draft.My case, for example, is that I got him as a RB3 in round 20 after all my other spots had at least two starters. Plus I have the 1.04 an 1.10 picks. So I don't see any reason not to take a chance on Green giving you one or two years of veteran production.

So there are circumstances where he could be selected. But also others where he should be avoided.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
sholditch said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
Really? Worse than 6 games, 260 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.7 ypc?there you have it. Worst RB situation in the NFL, with only the Seahawks competing for the last spot. Can anyone honestly tell me they would rather have Green over JJ, or Forte? Hell, even Benson?
Click to expand...
I appreciate that you took the time to go through every team in the league. But two things - 1)Just because I said you could do worse, doesn't mean I don't t think you can do better and 2)Why are you basing your comparison on last year's 6 game performance? If you don't expect him to be healthy, then I agree you should stay away. If, like me, you expect that he will be, then he's worth a shot for a guy that could give somewhere around 800/6.
ukshane said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree. Here are his rankings the last three seasons:2005 - 70th

2006 - 15th

2007 - 64th

Tack on the fact that he is on the wrong side of 30, has a bum knee and stuck on a team with other options at RB makes him borderline undraftable.

BTW, I had him as my #3 in a 12 teamer last season. :wall:
Click to expand...
Again, two of those three years were injury years with the third year making him a good RB3 option. The "other options" than Green are marginally better than Green if you assume injury and not even close if you assume a healthy Green.

It all comes down to how much nerve you have for his injuries.
Click to expand...
Here's what I see Andy:One year removed from a relevant season

Four years removed from his best

2 of the last 3 years he has been injured and missed a lot of games

I see ETA: this coming year as a logical extension of his past three years in the league, in which he has played 25 games of a possible 48, and had one 1,000-yd season to two season where he rushed for less than 300. I also see a team that has a lot of younger backs that could easily unseat him. Therefore, I don't view him as a safe bet to play a full season because of injuries or competition, and have trouble finding a back I would expect less out of than him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
sholditch said:
Here's what I see Andy:

One year removed from a relevant season

Four years removed from his best

2 of the last 3 years he has been injured and missed a lot of games

I see last year as a logical extension of his past three years in the league, in which he has played 25 games of a possible 48, and had one 1,000-yd season to two season where he rushed for less than 300. I also see a team that has a lot of younger backs that could easily unseat him. Therefore, I don't view him as a safe bet to play a full season because of injuries or competition, and have trouble finding a back I would expect less out of than him.
Click to expand...
The bolded part is where I disagree. If he's healthy (and I'm granting you that's a big if), then he's clearly better than Chris Brown, Chris Taylor, Darius Walker, and Steve Slaton - even at his age.And when I say RB3, I'm considering him in the bottom quarter of that tier, as in RB24-36. So you can do better and worse in that range. Which is all I'm saying.

 
greyone said:
sholditch said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
Really? Worse than 6 games, 260 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.7 ypc? Name a starting RB in this league that would be worse than that. Maybe, if Cedric starts over Forte, he would be worse...Bills? nopePatriots? nopeDolphins? nopeJets? nope x2 (would rather have either Jones or the other back any Sunday)Ravens? nopeBengals? nope x2 (would rather have Rudi or Watson)Browns? nopeSteelers? nope x2 (would rather have Parker or Mendenhall)Colts? nopeJaguars? nope x2 (would rather have Taylor or MJD)Titans? nope x2 (would rather have Fatdale or CJ)Broncos? nopeChiefs? nopeRaiders? nope x2 (would rather have DMC or Fargas)Chargers? nopeCowboys? nope x2 (would rather have Barber or Jones)Giants? nopeEagles? nopeRedskins? nopeBears? nope (unless Ced starts, then probably still nope)Lions? nope (yes, would take Smith or Bell over Green)Packers? nopeVikings? nopeFalcons? nope x2 (Turner or Norwood)Panthers? nope x2 (DWill or Stewart)Saints? nope x2 (Bush or Thomas)Bucs? nope (would take Graham over Green all day long)Cards? nope49ers? nopeSeahawks? possible, but I'd rather have JJRams? nopethere you have it. Worst RB situation in the NFL, with only the Seahawks competing for the last spot. Can anyone honestly tell me they would rather have Green over JJ, or Forte? Hell, even Benson?
Click to expand...
Breaking down the conversation team-by-team makes your argument. Using the POV of fantasy rosters will make my point siding with JPasquino and ADufrense. 10 teamers use rb21-rb30, 12 teamers use rb25-34 to fill flex or rb3 on fantasy squads. Ahman can be a border line 30 rb. Greens production last season was very limited in game, not finishing many of those games, leaving at random times(1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarter). Houston offense will produce respectable rb numbers, unfortunately it may be spread across 2-3 rbs. Im hoping Chris Brown emerges as the primary carrier. But Ahman does have the inside line. FFG redraft ranking place him at rb38, but JP/AD have optimistic views of his body/performance. Finally, when you consider the wr options from wr20-wr34 to start at flex...the pickings are generally hit or miss. Taking from the ffg redraft wr rankings. I could easily see people starting ahman over any of these guys. Harrison and chambers are my personal exceptions. Maybe ward, cotch and Coles can make me think otherwise at times. Cothcery, Coles, Ward, harrison, sant moss, Roddy white, Javon Walker, Bernard Berrian, driver, chambers and galloway, mason, kevin curtis, not to mention the wrs inside the top 40-45. Should Ahman and Chris Brown fall very late in drafts there can be some decent value in an upcoming offense with better stability at qb. Schuab and Rosenfels shared quite a bit of PT last season(i believe schaub was injured)
Click to expand...
Just something to add to the numbers. I beleive that there are several backups that will have better game-to-game production than Green (I updated my list). With that in mind, and again, JMO, it comes to 41 backs I would expect better production from. Therefore, even in a 12-team start 3RB league (36 starting RBs) he doesn't even rank as worst starter.
 
In terms of value, I think Chris Taylor offers quite a bit. At the tail end of '06 Taylor put up solid numbers and has had coaches, including Kubiak's, giving him some praise.

I may be in the minority, but I could see Taylor putting up the best numbers out of any Texan runner this year.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
sholditch said:
I also see a team that has a lot of younger backs that could easily unseat him.
Click to expand...
The bolded part is where I disagree. If he's healthy (and I'm granting you that's a big if), then he's clearly better than Chris Brown, Chris Taylor, Darius Walker, and Steve Slaton - even at his age.And when I say RB3, I'm considering him in the bottom quarter of that tier, as in RB24-36. So you can do better and worse in that range. Which is all I'm saying.
Click to expand...
You might confusing "healthy" and "in his prime". He may or may not be "healthy" all year (most wouldn't bet the farm on that alone), but even if he is, I seriously doubt he'll be the same back he once was (but hasn't been for a long time). The knee injury that put him on IR last year wasn't a "significant" injury and didn't require surgery. You might say, "hey, that's good news", but to me that reeks of a degenerative condition that you just don't recover from. It comes and goes, and can be treated with rest, shots etc, but a lot of times, the explosiveness that makes a guy elite is just gone at some point.In his prime, I can see where you might say he would be clearly better than his competition. But now, I don't see how you'd seem so sure of that.

With Slaton in particular, who had a pretty good college career and who hasn't had his shot in the pros yet, I'm not sure it's safe to assume the Green is significantly better RIGHT NOW.

Alexander is "healthy" now. So is Edge. Apparently, so is Ahman. That doesn't mean they are the backs they were four years ago when those three were at or close to the top of the heap.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This is kind of embarrassing, but I haven't been following the news that much this offseason.

Is the thinking that Dayne is out of the picture in HOU? From what I can tell he's still on the roster. He seems to have a knack for remaining the the last man standing.

 
Chris Brown is the value play here IMHO. None of these guys (at least today) deserve to be drafted higher than RB 32 and he has the most potential to actually do something if he gets his hands on the ball. If Green is the starter for all 16 games and walks away with 800 yards and 4-5 TDs, heck, you may as well draft a kick returner and hope he goes for a TD in the ONE week you start him. Brown is the goods when healthy. NO scrub rips off 186 yards in Week 1 because he was lucky...now he has to be healthy...which is a big if...but Ahman Green is no Brett Favre, so if you are going to gamble and actually want a return on your low risk gamble. Brown is the only logical choice at this junction.

 
goodyear pimps said:
In terms of value, I think Chris Taylor offers quite a bit. At the tail end of '06 Taylor put up solid numbers and has had coaches, including Kubiak's, giving him some praise. I may be in the minority, but I could see Taylor putting up the best numbers out of any Texan runner this year.
Click to expand...
I agree with this. I think Taylor is a guy you definitely want to target later in a redraft, or a guy that I'd look to acquire on the cheap in a dynasty. Which I did as early as last year expecting him to get a shot this year.I think if he moves into the starting job it is later during the season though, barring training camp injuries in front of him. So he'd be a guy you would have to hold onto for awhile.ETA: Wanted to add, the reason I feel that way about Taylor is that in the public training camp sessions that I was able to attend, Taylor always looked like the best RB to me, or back when Domanick Davis was briefly healthy again, very on par with DD.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
i do not want nothing to do with any Hou RB named Green or Brown

I did pick up Chris Taylor at the end of the year in 2 dynasty leagues. Wait and see thing

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here's a piece of my blog post today:

My case for Ahman Green and Chris Brown: No, I’m not coo-coo for Houston’s running game. I’m just seeing this as strictly a value-play for ‘08. Gary Kubiak is starting to put the puzzle together down in Houston as evidenced by their 11th ranked passing offense (12th in pts scored) in 2007. The Texans were anemic on the ground last year (22nd overall) but 1st round selection Duane Brown out of Va. Tech looks to fill an immediate and overwhelming need at left tackle. Considering I’m able to buy the entire Texans backfield at auction for the same price as Fred Taylor, Jonathan Stewart or Chester Taylor (of which two of the three are guaranteed nothing) that, my friends, is some saucy southern value. ***I’ll also be able to roster rookie RB Steve Slaton on waivers.

--------------------

You can roster Houston's entire backfield for 8% auction budget. Okay, "saucy southern value" was a bit melodramatic - my bad. But to me there's worse #2 RB's out there than cornering the market on Houston's backfield.

 
I like Chris Taylor, Chris Brown, and Steve Slaton all more than Ahman Green. I don't think Green has anything left.

 
sholditch said:
Andy Dufresne said:
If you're in a league with 12+ teams, you could do a lot worse than Ahman Green as a RB3.
Click to expand...
Really? Worse than 6 games, 260 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.7 ypc? Name a starting RB in this league that would be worse than that. Maybe, if Cedric starts over Forte, he would be worse...Bills? nopePatriots? nopeDolphins? nopeJets? nopeRavens? nopeBengals? nopeBrowns? nopeSteelers? nopeColts? nopeJaguars? nopeTitans? nopeBroncos? nopeChiefs? nopeRaiders? nopeChargers? nopeCowboys? nopeGiants? nopeEagles? nopeRedskins? nopeBears? nope (unless Ced starts, then probably still nope)Lions? nope (yes, would take Smith or Bell over Green)Packers? nopeVikings? nopeFalcons? nopePanthers? nopeSaints? nopeBucs? nope (would take Graham over Green all day long)Cards? nope49ers? nopeSeahawks? possible, but I'd rather have JJRams? nopethere you have it. Worst RB situation in the NFL, with only the Seahawks competing for the last spot. Can anyone honestly tell me they would rather have Green over JJ, or Forte? Hell, even Benson?
Click to expand...
Do the math 12+ teams as a RB3. When you get up to 14 or 16 teams in the league, only a few have starters as RB3s.
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Ahman Green all day long here.Slaton will be the 3rd down / receiver guy.Chris Brown will get some work, but if Green can handle the load then he's the #1 guy by far.Everything I've seen in the offseason says he's ready to go.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Health always an issue, but IMO it's very clear cut Green's the guy. Slaton might be the 3rd down guy in time, Brown will be that guy this year. I have Green at RB25 in redrafts this year. (And you won't have to take him anywhere that high)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Maybe we can get Chase in here to answer the Q: what do the previous examples of 31 year old RBs coming off major injury the year before have to tell us about Ahman Green's prospects for 2008?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
wdcrob said:
Maybe we can get Chase in here to answer the Q: what do the previous examples of 31 year old RBs coming off major injury the year before have to tell us about Ahman Green's prospects for 2008?
Click to expand...
And in my opinion, this is where the value lies. Having Green as a paper tiger at the top of the depth chart artificially depresses the value of the Texans eventual leading rusher. Two valid concerns: 1) You'll have to roster as many as 3 Texan RB's to make sure you get the eventual winner of this job (just not worth it in 16-18 max rosters). 2) Green goes down and a RBBC performs horribly the rest of the way.

But Green sitting #1 on the depth chart right now is not a bad thing for astute fantasy owners.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
wdcrob said:
Maybe we can get Chase in here to answer the Q: what do the previous examples of 31 year old RBs coming off major injury the year before have to tell us about Ahman Green's prospects for 2008?
Click to expand...
RBs who scored at least 8PPG playing 8 games or less (i.e. major injury) at age 30+:Priest Holmes 2004 24.74 Dorsey Levens 2000 11.00 Sammy Morris 2007 9.98 Kimble Anders 1999 9.75 Ricky Watters 2001 9.70 Ahman Green 2007 8.38 Tyrone Wheatley 2004 8.06 Terry Allen 2000 7.65 The next season for each:Priest Holmes (31): 7 games, 15.3 PPGDorsey Levens (30): 15 games, 2.5 PPGKimble Anders (34): did not playRicky Watters (32): did not playTyrone Wheatley (32): did not playTerry Allen (32): 11 games, 8.28 PPGSammy Morris (31): TBDAhman Green (31): TBDNone of the guys in Green's situation since 1994 have bounced back to play an entire fantasy-relevant season. I think Green's done. Especially when you consider that he wasn't exactly lighting it up before the injury he'll be lucky not to get cut.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
FantasyTrader said:
Here's a piece of my blog post today:

My case for Ahman Green and Chris Brown: No, I'm not coo-coo for Houston's running game. I'm just seeing this as strictly a value-play for '08. Gary Kubiak is starting to put the puzzle together down in Houston as evidenced by their 11th ranked passing offense (12th in pts scored) in 2007. The Texans were anemic on the ground last year (22nd overall) but 1st round selection Duane Brown out of Va. Tech looks to fill an immediate and overwhelming need at left tackle. Considering I'm able to buy the entire Texans backfield at auction for the same price as Fred Taylor, Jonathan Stewart or Chester Taylor (of which two of the three are guaranteed nothing) that, my friends, is some saucy southern value. ***I'll also be able to roster rookie RB Steve Slaton on waivers.

--------------------

You can roster Houston's entire backfield for 8% auction budget. Okay, "saucy southern value" was a bit melodramatic - my bad. But to me there's worse #2 RB's out there than cornering the market on Houston's backfield.
Click to expand...
Duane Brown is a project and I doubt he starts this year.
 
Let's take a look at what I've found / read in the past several weeks.

PhilyBurbs.com

When he arrives, there's a good chance that Slaton could see some playing time as a third-down back in an offense that caters on a quick-cutting running back.

While Ahman Green is currently the starter, the Texans seemed to indicate that they have a specific role in mind for Slaton.

“I think that he's a good enough runner to get into any scheme,” Shanahan said. “You look at some of the top offenses in the league, they have a guy like Kevin Faulk or Reggie Bush that can fill a role of catching balls out of the backfield and carrying it out of one-back spots. We feel we can use him in that role as a change of pace running back.”
Click to expand...
So you have (OC Kyle) Shanahan saying how he sees Slaton right now.He continues here at The Monitor:

The Texans have their starter in 31-year-old Ahman Green, who says he's healthy after missing 10 games and finishing with 260 yards rushing in his first year in Houston. Houston didn't re-sign Ron Dayne this offseason, instead picking up free agent Chris Brown from Tennessee.

"We have two guys right now we think can carry the load, but this guy fits a role for us," Shanahan said. "He's got the size and the quickness and the mentality to do the things we're going to ask."
Click to expand...
Chron.com covers the Texans, and they knew that Houston was happy with what they had prior to the draft:
A lot of draft experts have the Texans using their first pick on a running back, but don't expect it.

With Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Chris Taylor and Darius Walker on the roster, they don't plan to use a No. 1 pick on another one.
Click to expand...
While nothing is rock solid until you see Green healthy and running with the first team, you have to read the tea leaves and see that:
Houston had ample chance to draft a RB early (Rounds 1 and 2)
They felt that they didn't need to bring in another RB
That feeling translates to Green looking healthy - otherwise Turner or another RB would have been a FA target.
Slaton is a change of pace back, not a feature back in the eyes of the OCIs there uncertainty? Yes, of course. But the writing on the wall says to take Ahman Green later in your redraft leagues and stow him away as the starter in Houston. As mentioned earlier, you can look to Brown and/or Taylor as handcuffs, and all can be had cheap. You can't say that about many NFL starting RBs.

 
He's a raw project for sure. But I don't think you can question his upside or rule out him starting if Houston's running game struggles early on.

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
A lot of draft experts have the Texans using their first pick on a running back, but don't expect it.

With Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Chris Taylor and Darius Walker on the roster, they don't plan to use a No. 1 pick on another one.
Click to expand...
While nothing is rock solid until you see Green healthy and running with the first team, you have to read the tea leaves and see that:
Houston had ample chance to draft a RB early (Rounds 1 and 2)
They felt that they didn't need to bring in another RB
That feeling translates to Green looking healthy - otherwise Turner or another RB would have been a FA target.
Slaton is a change of pace back, not a feature back in the eyes of the OCIs there uncertainty? Yes, of course. But the writing on the wall says to take Ahman Green later in your redraft leagues and stow him away as the starter in Houston. As mentioned earlier, you can look to Brown and/or Taylor as handcuffs, and all can be had cheap. You can't say that about many NFL starting RBs.
Click to expand...
I don't think they are that confident in Green. I think they are confident they will get enough production out of the group of backs they have, that they felt spending a 1st round pick was unnecessary.since we're reading tea leaves and speculating why they didn't go hard after a free agent RB or spend a high draft pick on one, there was also this report from not too long ago:

Mar. 11, 2008 - 10:00 p.m. ET

The Texans' coaching staff is "really high" on RB Chris Taylor, according to the Houston Chronicle's John McClain.

McClain suggests that Taylor is the reason the team won't take a back with its first-round pick. Taylor played well in limited duty as a rookie in 2006, averaging 4.4 YPC with three catches for 40 yards. He then missed all of last season. Coach Gary Kubiak reportedly believes he'll be an ideal fit in the Texans' zone-blocking system.
Click to expand...
I believe that anything they get out of Ahman Green they will consider to be a bonus at this point. Maybe he lasts half the season but he's pretty worn out and used up, IMO. Not a guy I want to rely on at all this year as he's very unlikely to finish the season or be healthy when the fantasy playoffs roll around. I also think it's extremely unlikely that an injury prone 31yo Ahman Green had much of an impact on the Texans decision whether or not to draft a RB early this year. Seems much more believable that belief in a young back like Houston would be the reason for that strategy.Additionally, Houston seems to pass on RB talent early in the draft every year. Looks like business as usual for them, and Kubiak came from Denver where they have been able to convert late-round RBs into very productive players so I'm guessing there is some belief in the organization that spending high picks on RBs is a mistake...they did pass on Reggie Bush.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
wdcrob said:
wdcrob said:
Maybe we can get Chase in here to answer the Q: what do the previous examples of 31 year old RBs coming off major injury the year before have to tell us about Ahman Green's prospects for 2008?
Click to expand...
RBs who scored at least 8PPG playing 8 games or less (i.e. major injury) at age 30+:Priest Holmes 2004 24.74

Dorsey Levens 2000 11.00

Sammy Morris 2007 9.98

Kimble Anders 1999 9.75

Ricky Watters 2001 9.70

Ahman Green 2007 8.38

Tyrone Wheatley 2004 8.06

Terry Allen 2000 7.65

The next season for each:

Priest Holmes (31): 7 games, 15.3 PPG

Dorsey Levens (30): 15 games, 2.5 PPG

Kimble Anders (34): did not play

Ricky Watters (32): did not play

Tyrone Wheatley (32): did not play

Terry Allen (32): 11 games, 8.28 PPG

Sammy Morris (31): TBD

Ahman Green (31): TBD

None of the guys in Green's situation since 1994 have bounced back to play an entire fantasy-relevant season. I think Green's done. Especially when you consider that he wasn't exactly lighting it up before the injury he'll be lucky not to get cut.
Click to expand...
For another view that doesn't really like Green's chances, see this study on running back deterioration by Doug Drinen. I plugged Green's relevant numbers into the regression formula in the link, and it kicks out an over/under of 172 future career rushing attempts for Ahman Green. That is not just for the next season, but for the rest of the back's career. I'll quote Doug here:
No matter how old you are (within reason), as long as you were productive in your most recent season, the formula thinks you've got something left. But if you're on the north side of 30 and have a bad season, it will turn on you in a hurry. Since the formula was generated in such a way as to best fit the past data, the lesson is clear: age isn't much of a problem --- and neither is workload --- if you're productive. But once you start sliding, it's hard to put the brakes on.

Unfortunately, what I just said amounts to: old-but-productive running backs will continue to be productive right up until the point that they cease being productive. Genius.
Click to expand...
I don't fancy Green's chances of having a bounce back year at age 31. I think the Houston situation is one that may actually produce fantasy points if you could start "Team Houston RB". I'm just not sure who that is and whether at this point it is worth a roster spot. I do think when we look back on the 2008 season, one of the sleepers could be on this roster.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Travdogg's top-150 (8-21 update)
2
Replies
68
Views
6K
travdogg
T
socrates
Early 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
2
Replies
52
Views
9K
Max Power
Max Power
Hartliner
2025 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings
2
Replies
81
Views
7K
kyoun1e
K

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top