Bob Henry
Footballguy
Hi everyone,
Not that we've published our first cut at the 2008 FBG projections, I wanted to take some time to gather some critical feedback from the Shark Pool. You folks are among the sharpest football minds on the internet and I firmly believe that through questions, analysis and feedback from the Pool, my projections will only get better.
Jeff Tefertiller approached me yesterday to see if I'd like some feedback, and of course I do, so we've already exchanged some questions and answers along the same lines. I'll start this thread by posting those questions and my responses. I'd like to solicit more questions about what sticks out to you. I'll provice my thoughts on how/why I projected the numbers I did for a player or team. If your comments are spot on, I'll probably re-address those projections with that in mind. Or, I may simply provide you with my reasoning and a discussion can ensue form there.
Let's get at it.. Here are the questions from Jeff and my responses.
With Delhomme's injury (Tommy John), why is Matt Moore not listed? Name the last NFL QB to come back from that surgery. Me, either.
Woops. He is listed in my XLS projections, but I had the wrong player ID. That said, consider me a believer that Delhomme is and will be back. Precedent or not among QBs, there has been numerous precedents set amongst baseball pitcher undergoing Tommy John surgery that not only come back, but come back stronger and with as much or more velocity than before. It’s truly amazing what modern medicine can do for players.
Currently, I have Moore projected for 50 pass attempts; Delhomme 460. That is more than the typical backup QB that I project, but not as much as unsettled situations like NYJ, BUF, CHI, HOU, MIA, ATL and even Cleveland with Anderson/Quinn.
With Trent Edwards' lengthy college injury history, why does JPL not have more attempts?
Yeh, Edwards definitely had his fair share of injuries in college. He didn’t exactly play behind a solid offensive line either. Buffalo doesn’t have a line to protect him like New England, Indy, etc. However, it’s not terrible either and he has good help in the way of the skilled players around him. He looked solid to me last year and I have projected Losman with 60 pass attempts (slightly more than Matt Moore). So, that indicates that I’m not sold on Edwards, but I do think the Bills will give him every opportunity, including a longer than usual leash to rebound from a bad game or two or three before going back to Losman. I think the only way Losman gets this job back is via injury, which as you pointed out, is not unprecedented in Edwards past.
Considering Portis' YPC last year, why project 4.2 YPC this year? He has not eclipsed 4.1 since 2005. In fact, Portis has had decreasing YPC last three years. Also, he led the NFL in carries last year which scares me.
Well, that’s one of those “round up” tricks. I have Portis precisely at 4.15 YPC. I should dial him down just a tad to 4.14 to alleviate that concern, albeit mildly. To answer your question though, he has averaged 4.5 for his career and 4.3, 4.1 and 3.9 as a Redskin. Granted, last year was his worst in large part because the offense became utterly predictable under Gibbs and the offensive line was completely destroyed losing both tackles and a guard to injury early in the season. The team has their line back and healthy this year and Portis has more weapons around him to boost the passing game (even if it is 3 rookies, they are talented players who should add SOMETHING). The combination of those things and a switch over to Jim Zorn’s offensive style, which is more West Coast influenced, should prove to be an improvement for Portis as well. Strangely, I’ve never been a big Portis guy. I don’t think I’ve ever owned him in any league because I typically have him under-ranked by 2-to-4 spots than most owners. Two years ago, when Portis was being grabbed in the 4-6 range, I was grabbing Steven Jackson (which paid off huge at that time). Still, I’m a realist and I think Portis track record is solid. If anything, I’m still not 100% comfortable projecting him at 300 carries and if the line doesn’t gel and the offense struggles in their new system, it’s not inconvievable that Portis could slide again with his YPC. The last three years are a downward trend, but I think last years was – in large part – due to other mitigating factors aside from any trailing off in terms of Portis’ talent. My biggest concern with Portis, as I mentioned iwht 300 carries projected, is his “aching knees”. I’d feel more comfortable projecting him with 280 carries and a 4.2 YPC than I would 310 carries and a 4.1 YPC. Does that make sense?
Why do you think Carolina will have > 400 rush attempts by RBs when they have done it only teice in six years? It just makes me wonder.
Ah, yes, but they have in 2 of the last 3 years. John Fox’s preference is to establish a strong running game, preferably with two solid backs – which they now hope to have after drafting Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers addressed their offensive line early in the draft as well. They are averaging 454 rushing attempts over the last three years and increased from 423 (a low) to 451 (last year). I expect that trend to continue this year now that they have more players in place to pull it off. Specifically, I think the balance in their passing game will not only help Delhomme and Steve Smith, but help provide balance to the ground game by forcing defenses to be more honest. Last year, they were putting 8-9 guys in the box and double/triple teaming Smith because they had NO QB, NO PASSING GAME beyond screen passes to Smith and as a result the offense was awful – but they still managed to run the ball 451 times and for a 4.0 YPC average. Not bad.
With better talent in place this year and a more physical and talented runner in Stewart, I believe they’ll be around the same ball park. I have them projected for 450 rushing attempts as a team. I’ve increased the total number of passing attempts as a team because I think they’ll do better in terms of time of possession and the offense will be more balanced leading to more total number of plays being run offensively.
I know you can never predict injury, but why the increase in production for Roy Williams with Martz gone? He has finished better than WR29 once in his career of four years and that was with Martz. I know you are a Michigan guy and probably have some reasoning/knowledge I do not ... so I wanted to ask.
There are some things that we here all the time from coaches at this time of the year. “We want to run the ball more” is right at the top and one of the most over-used statements in the world of coach speak. Do the Lions want to run the ball more? Hell yes. I don’t think it’s possible to run the ball LESS than they did last year. The dilemma the Lions face is whether they’ll be able to put those plans into action when the rubber hits the road. With Martz gone, the offense will be very similar as before, but with fewer 4-WR formations and a more consistent, true effort to run the ball and not completely abandon it when the score become 10-0 in the first quarter. Martz would completely abandon the run, now they won’t. They will still pass the ball a lot though. Here’s the key difference in philosophy of what Martz wanted to (and did) compared to the current regime.
Under Martz, they used a lot of long-developing plays which included 5- and 7- step drops for the QB. Without a line able to adequately protect them, Kitna was sacked a ton and the 3rd and 4th WRs (both players very familiar with Martz system) thrived on checkdowns as Kitna had to bail on those plays far too often. Under the new regime, they’ll feature more 3- and 5- step drops and an increased focus on getting the ball into the hands of Williams and Johnson. I may have to temper William’s projections slightly. 85 receptions may be slightly aggressive, but he produced 82 in 2006 in 16 games and 63 in just 12 games (which projects to low-mid 80s over 16 games). Roy is in a contract year, too, so he has every incentive in the world to produce at his previously established levels, with perhaps a slight increase in targets and receptions given that the new offense will focus on getting him and Calvin the ball more than last year.
With the recent camp news (puff) out of Miami on the Fasano trade, why do you think Martin is still the primary TE?
I’m admittedly split on that and, after looking at it, I’ll have to give this a closer look and probably adjust accordingly. I’m not much of a fan of David Martin. He was brought in by the past coaching staff and Parcells clearly likes Fasano having drafted him in Dallas and having traded for him now as the Miami GM. I think you’re probably spot on with this comment and I’ll have to re-visit those projections. Thanks for pointing that out.
Not that we've published our first cut at the 2008 FBG projections, I wanted to take some time to gather some critical feedback from the Shark Pool. You folks are among the sharpest football minds on the internet and I firmly believe that through questions, analysis and feedback from the Pool, my projections will only get better.
Jeff Tefertiller approached me yesterday to see if I'd like some feedback, and of course I do, so we've already exchanged some questions and answers along the same lines. I'll start this thread by posting those questions and my responses. I'd like to solicit more questions about what sticks out to you. I'll provice my thoughts on how/why I projected the numbers I did for a player or team. If your comments are spot on, I'll probably re-address those projections with that in mind. Or, I may simply provide you with my reasoning and a discussion can ensue form there.
Let's get at it.. Here are the questions from Jeff and my responses.
With Delhomme's injury (Tommy John), why is Matt Moore not listed? Name the last NFL QB to come back from that surgery. Me, either.
Woops. He is listed in my XLS projections, but I had the wrong player ID. That said, consider me a believer that Delhomme is and will be back. Precedent or not among QBs, there has been numerous precedents set amongst baseball pitcher undergoing Tommy John surgery that not only come back, but come back stronger and with as much or more velocity than before. It’s truly amazing what modern medicine can do for players.
Currently, I have Moore projected for 50 pass attempts; Delhomme 460. That is more than the typical backup QB that I project, but not as much as unsettled situations like NYJ, BUF, CHI, HOU, MIA, ATL and even Cleveland with Anderson/Quinn.
With Trent Edwards' lengthy college injury history, why does JPL not have more attempts?
Yeh, Edwards definitely had his fair share of injuries in college. He didn’t exactly play behind a solid offensive line either. Buffalo doesn’t have a line to protect him like New England, Indy, etc. However, it’s not terrible either and he has good help in the way of the skilled players around him. He looked solid to me last year and I have projected Losman with 60 pass attempts (slightly more than Matt Moore). So, that indicates that I’m not sold on Edwards, but I do think the Bills will give him every opportunity, including a longer than usual leash to rebound from a bad game or two or three before going back to Losman. I think the only way Losman gets this job back is via injury, which as you pointed out, is not unprecedented in Edwards past.
Considering Portis' YPC last year, why project 4.2 YPC this year? He has not eclipsed 4.1 since 2005. In fact, Portis has had decreasing YPC last three years. Also, he led the NFL in carries last year which scares me.
Well, that’s one of those “round up” tricks. I have Portis precisely at 4.15 YPC. I should dial him down just a tad to 4.14 to alleviate that concern, albeit mildly. To answer your question though, he has averaged 4.5 for his career and 4.3, 4.1 and 3.9 as a Redskin. Granted, last year was his worst in large part because the offense became utterly predictable under Gibbs and the offensive line was completely destroyed losing both tackles and a guard to injury early in the season. The team has their line back and healthy this year and Portis has more weapons around him to boost the passing game (even if it is 3 rookies, they are talented players who should add SOMETHING). The combination of those things and a switch over to Jim Zorn’s offensive style, which is more West Coast influenced, should prove to be an improvement for Portis as well. Strangely, I’ve never been a big Portis guy. I don’t think I’ve ever owned him in any league because I typically have him under-ranked by 2-to-4 spots than most owners. Two years ago, when Portis was being grabbed in the 4-6 range, I was grabbing Steven Jackson (which paid off huge at that time). Still, I’m a realist and I think Portis track record is solid. If anything, I’m still not 100% comfortable projecting him at 300 carries and if the line doesn’t gel and the offense struggles in their new system, it’s not inconvievable that Portis could slide again with his YPC. The last three years are a downward trend, but I think last years was – in large part – due to other mitigating factors aside from any trailing off in terms of Portis’ talent. My biggest concern with Portis, as I mentioned iwht 300 carries projected, is his “aching knees”. I’d feel more comfortable projecting him with 280 carries and a 4.2 YPC than I would 310 carries and a 4.1 YPC. Does that make sense?
Why do you think Carolina will have > 400 rush attempts by RBs when they have done it only teice in six years? It just makes me wonder.
Ah, yes, but they have in 2 of the last 3 years. John Fox’s preference is to establish a strong running game, preferably with two solid backs – which they now hope to have after drafting Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers addressed their offensive line early in the draft as well. They are averaging 454 rushing attempts over the last three years and increased from 423 (a low) to 451 (last year). I expect that trend to continue this year now that they have more players in place to pull it off. Specifically, I think the balance in their passing game will not only help Delhomme and Steve Smith, but help provide balance to the ground game by forcing defenses to be more honest. Last year, they were putting 8-9 guys in the box and double/triple teaming Smith because they had NO QB, NO PASSING GAME beyond screen passes to Smith and as a result the offense was awful – but they still managed to run the ball 451 times and for a 4.0 YPC average. Not bad.
With better talent in place this year and a more physical and talented runner in Stewart, I believe they’ll be around the same ball park. I have them projected for 450 rushing attempts as a team. I’ve increased the total number of passing attempts as a team because I think they’ll do better in terms of time of possession and the offense will be more balanced leading to more total number of plays being run offensively.
I know you can never predict injury, but why the increase in production for Roy Williams with Martz gone? He has finished better than WR29 once in his career of four years and that was with Martz. I know you are a Michigan guy and probably have some reasoning/knowledge I do not ... so I wanted to ask.
There are some things that we here all the time from coaches at this time of the year. “We want to run the ball more” is right at the top and one of the most over-used statements in the world of coach speak. Do the Lions want to run the ball more? Hell yes. I don’t think it’s possible to run the ball LESS than they did last year. The dilemma the Lions face is whether they’ll be able to put those plans into action when the rubber hits the road. With Martz gone, the offense will be very similar as before, but with fewer 4-WR formations and a more consistent, true effort to run the ball and not completely abandon it when the score become 10-0 in the first quarter. Martz would completely abandon the run, now they won’t. They will still pass the ball a lot though. Here’s the key difference in philosophy of what Martz wanted to (and did) compared to the current regime.
Under Martz, they used a lot of long-developing plays which included 5- and 7- step drops for the QB. Without a line able to adequately protect them, Kitna was sacked a ton and the 3rd and 4th WRs (both players very familiar with Martz system) thrived on checkdowns as Kitna had to bail on those plays far too often. Under the new regime, they’ll feature more 3- and 5- step drops and an increased focus on getting the ball into the hands of Williams and Johnson. I may have to temper William’s projections slightly. 85 receptions may be slightly aggressive, but he produced 82 in 2006 in 16 games and 63 in just 12 games (which projects to low-mid 80s over 16 games). Roy is in a contract year, too, so he has every incentive in the world to produce at his previously established levels, with perhaps a slight increase in targets and receptions given that the new offense will focus on getting him and Calvin the ball more than last year.
With the recent camp news (puff) out of Miami on the Fasano trade, why do you think Martin is still the primary TE?
I’m admittedly split on that and, after looking at it, I’ll have to give this a closer look and probably adjust accordingly. I’m not much of a fan of David Martin. He was brought in by the past coaching staff and Parcells clearly likes Fasano having drafted him in Dallas and having traded for him now as the Miami GM. I think you’re probably spot on with this comment and I’ll have to re-visit those projections. Thanks for pointing that out.
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It's not like a host of NFL quarterbacks have been popping their elbow ligaments the last 20 years, unless I blinked. I don't think there's enough data to support that just because a QB has TJ surgery it means the party's over.
He only had 2 bad fantasy games all season in games he started, and there were mitigating factors for both. Now, that said, Quinn is obviously still around, and playing in Cleveland will expose him to potential poor weather games every year.In those last 9 games, he was QB10, and Favre was one of those ahead of him and is obviously now retired. FBG's expert redraft ranking currently has him ranked as QB9, right in line with his performance over those final 9 games. His "poor" stretch last season was those 9 games, when he was QB10; he was QB3 in weeks 1-8... so his FBG ranking is essentially ignoring his upside, which he showed last season. And as far as I can tell, his situation has not worsened in any way.All of this led me to trade for him this offseason as part of a larger deal. I gave up rookie pick 1.2, Croyle, Jarrett, and Sproles for Ryan Grant, Deshawn Wynn, and Anderson. 
Thanks all.
ass ratio currently at 555:480. I think that may be a bit too conservative, honestly. I've read your insights on the Patriots and I'm guessing that I'll have to modify this a bit, though I still suspect they will run it slightly more than last year, which invariably means less pass attempts. 555 attempts is 29 fewer than last year, but very close to their 3 year average and trend. That being said, I'll adjust the New England projections accordingly. I think you're right with Jackson and Stallworth. That might be an improvement. Perhaps the bigger change with respect to yardage is my adjustment of YPA from 8.3 in 2007 to 7.95 for my 2008 projections. The 3 year average is 7.6 and in the previous two years they were 6.8 (2006) and 7.7 (2005). Obviously, those were without Moss, so I think 7.95 is reasonable and with 29 fewer pass attempts that might help explain it for you.
