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that link has a great example that stands out immediately. I expect a bounce back year from Schobel with the addition of Marcus Stroud inside and a weaker schedule, but I probably wouldn't have ranked him #2 overall. I thought my 11 sack projection for him was pretty reasonable (he's reached 11 sacks in 3 of the past 5 seasons) and I only had him getting 1 extra solo and 4 extra assists compared to where Norton has him, but I guess the 1 extra FF and FR I projected for him gave him an extra boost that pushes him up into that top tier.Also, Jared Allen really stands out with almost 30 points more than the #2 DE. Not sure if that's overly optimistic or not though as I think he could definitely have a monster season that blows everybody else away.
You can break these out in the rankings, but not the projections it appears. Let me ping Drinen and see if the projections can be grouped like the rankings with our current database setup.
thanks Tick. Taking a closer look at these guys, here's what I see:Justin Smith, I think will do well in San Francisco and it looks like Norton and I have him projected for very similar production. I have him projected at 44 solos, 14 assists, and 5 sacks. I think he's finished with better tackle numbers and better sack numbers in 5 of his last 6 years. He also shows up as DE18 in the positional list, which is right in the middle of what he's done the past 6 years when he finished ranked higher 3 times and lower 3 times but always between DE10 and DE24. Seems right on to me unless you think the switch to a 3-4 is going to lead to a big dropoff for him, which I don't think will happen.Tamba Hali is moving to a better spot from LDE to RDE which should lead to improved production, but the loss of Allen also likely means he'll have the protection slid to his side of the field more often and that could offset any benefits of switching positions. I have him projected for 42 solos, 12 assists, and 8 sacks, which is slightly under where Norton has him and almost the same production he had last year. He's finished as DE11 and DE18 the past two years and I have him at DE15 here. Looks about right to me.Grant probably is a little high given the season he just had, but I like him and think he'll produce better given the improvements that have been made around him. Adding Vilma to MLB should lead to more 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations for the defense and adding a potential impact DT in Sedrick Ellis should also help keep him matched up in a lot of favorable one-on-one situations. I have him projected for 42/14/6. If you took his average over the last 6 seasons and projected it out to a 16-game total, you'd get 48/13/7 so I don't think my numbers are that unrealistic. He came out as DE21 here and has finished higher than that 3 times in the past 6 seasons and lower than that 3 times in the last 6 seasons so the rankings seems reasonable to me too.Dumervil does seem low considering that he's a young player coming off a breakout 12-sack season. I have him projected at 28/6/10. The issue with him is that I see more of a rotation at DE in Denver this year so he figures to get fewer snaps than he did last year. Ekuban is coming back from injury and was a pretty capable starter in 2006. Plus, I expect a bigger role and more production from last year's two rookies Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder. I still like Dumervil's pass rush skills but I think he'll have a dropoff in tackles and probably regress a bit in the big play categories.I have Mike Peterson projected for 88/26/3, which is considerably lower than where Norton has him (92/31/4). Take his 6-year per game average and project it to a full season and you'd get 90/31/3. He also turns up at ILB14 in my positional list but he was a top-10 player in 2002, 2004, and 2005 when he was healthy enough to play a full season. If anything, I probably didn't downgrade his numbers enough due to his above-average injury risk considering that he's missed 17 games over the past 2 seasons. In terms of his production per game though, I think it will be pretty similar.Farrior shows up as ILB24 with 76/37/4, which is nearly identical to Norton's projections for him and about halfway between his production from the past two seasons. He's also finished as ILB18 or higher in each of the past 5 seasons so projecting him to finish 24th doesn't seem high at all unless you think last year was the beginning of the end for him and expect an additional dropoff now that he's 33 years old.Brooking is in a similar situation. He shows up as ILB23 with 89/25/2 in my projections. Those numbers are very close to where Norton has him and look very consistent with his production over the past 4 seasons, when he has averaged 89/27/2.5 and didn't miss a single game. I don't really see a dropoff for him this year whether he plays MLB or WLB.Zach Thomas is a hard player to project because he's old, switching defenses/teams, and coming off a year where he only played in 5 games. I have him projected at 85/40/2, which would seem pretty high compared to what the Cowboys ILBs have been producing in recent years but maybe a little low compared to what we've come to expect from him in Miami. At 35 years old, I think he'll be a little slower which will mean more assists and fewer solos. I don't think he'll hit 90+ solos in that defense and his big play production hasn't been that great in recent years.Poz is showing up as ILB5 for Norton and ILB22 for me, so there's a big difference there and I think you are probably right that I have him too low. I have him at 80/29/1, which is lower than what DiGiorgio finished with. I think I'm expecting a better year from the Bills defense so the total number of tackles should decline, but Poz should get a high % of them. I'll likely be adjusting his numbers up in the next round of projections.As for Stephen Cooper, he's low because he's going to miss the first 4 games to suspension. Project the numbers I gave him over a 16-game season and they'd be 69/32/2.5, which isn't far off his 74/35/2 that he put up last year. I might have dinged him too much for the suspension but I don't think I'm way off.This is getting long so I'll look into the rest in a bit.
The database setting currently doesn't allow for an easy fix right now with the generic defensive projections. Drinen will make an effort to work that into his very busy schedule, but it may not be a quick fix.I hadn't realized this, but MyFBG users can generate custom projections in the same format as the rankings -- in any grouping you wish.
Yeah, Bulluck stood out a bit to me but it looks like he came out #1 on Norton's list too. I think the issue there is do we think that last year was just an outlier for him or a sign of things to come. I think it is probably a bit of both. The Titans offense seems to rely more on the running game than just about any other team in the league and they also have a good defense, which should mean high time of possession and relatively few snaps for the defense overall. But, he was a top-3 OLB for the 5 years prior to last year so it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see him return. He just turned 31 years old and he did finish with 5 INTs last year so I don't think he's done as a fantasy stud.Howard looks high too but that's mostly because of the separation between ILB and OLB. His fantasy points projection would put him right around LB20 overall. I have him at 84/20/1 with 4 INTs, which isn't too different from where Norton has him or the 77/18/1/6 he put up last year. Tackle numbers might be a little high with all the additions the Raiders made this offseason, but the biggest question is probably whether those 6 INTs last year were a fluke or not.I have Merriman at 56/12/14, which is pretty similar to where Norton has him at 62/15/13. Prorating his per game averages over the past 3 years would give you 54/15/14.5, which is very close to where I have him.Gaither is projected for 76/30/1, which is a little better than the 69/33/0 he put up last year. I just see him as the Eagles best LB by far so I think he'll continue to show improvement in his tackle numbers and also add in a few extra big plays this year.McIntosh is a guy I like but he's injury prone, plus the Redskins are changing defenses and I think a healthy Marcus Washington could dig into his numbers a bit. I have him at 74/24/3, which is just a little lower than where Norton has him (78/26/3) and a little better than what he put up last year in 14 games (68/19/3). Doesn't seem too bad to me given that he's likely to miss at least a couple games, IMO.Greenway, I have at OLB21 and Norton has him at OLB14 but he has him with 30 extra fantasy points so mine do look a little low probably. Difference is that I'm projecting a slight drop from last year's numbers because I think the Vikings defense will be better, which will lead to fewer snaps/tackles overall, and Allen will soak up a lot more tackles than their RDE did last year.I agree that Keiaho is too low. I'll need to adjust him up. Thanks for pointing that one out.
I have L.Landry projected for 72/33/2/3, which is definitely a bump from his 63/32/1.5/0 as a rookie. The 3 INTs are probably high so I think I'll probably lower that to 2. I do think it's normal for a safety to make a jump like this in his second year.I have Pollard at 76/20/2/2, which isn't too different from the 74/16/1/2 he put up last year. Loss of Allen up front is a major change but could also free up quite a few tackles and lead to more sustained drives against this defense. He finished as S12 last year and I have him at S8 this year, improvement which seems reasonable for a safety in his 2nd year as a starter.I have Tanard Jackson at 64/8/1/4. He put up 53/3/0/2 as a rookie last year despite not even starting all year so I think he'll see his numbers take a jump up this year as a full-time starter. Jermaine Phillips finished with 4 interceptions last year but I think that was a fluke and that Jackson will probably wind up outproducing him there.J.Nelson is projected for 64/10/1/5, a slight bump from the 58/5/1/5 he put up as a rookie last year. The 5 interceptions might have been a fluke but the Jags look like they've upgraded their pass rush so I think he can repeat. Maybe the return of Peterson at MLB hurts his tackle numbers, but the loss of Sammy Knight should free up some too. I figure Nelson will make quicker reactions now that he's had a full year to adjust and the uncertainty at SS could help turn him into a star there.I have Phillips at 68/15/1/2, which is not much of a drop from the 70/13/1/4 he put up last year. As I said above, I think the interceptions were a fluke, and I think Jackson is good enough to steal some tackles from him this year. I probably am a little low on him considering that he's been a top-10 safety in each of the last 2 years and I have him at #19 here. I probably need to bump up his tackle numbers a little.Dawkins does look a little low to me too. I have him at 66/14/1/3. Last 4 full seasons he's played, he's finished with 62 to 76 solos so I'm probably on the low side for him there. His per game INT average over the last 6 years would prorate to exactly 3 in a full season.Bigby probably looks low too. I have him at 64/18/1/3 and he finished last year with 66/20/0/5. He may see a bump in his tackle numbers from last year instead of the slight drop I projected for him, but I think he'll definitely have trouble replicating those 5 INTs.
The end of the season last year Pollard really came on strong. I think he'll be fine.
Yes I'd like that too.
I already bumped up his tackle numbers a little due to that possibility (I have him with 62/9 and Norton has him with just 40/6). I think he'll still make a lot of tackles working as the nickel DB in the slot rather than playing on the outside, but he might get another slight bump in tackles if he was named the starting SS.
Thanks for the help Jene!
Thanks!
he was another tough player to project because he doesn't seem to be a good fit for the new defense. But, with Taylor's situation up in the air, and not a whole lot of competition at the DE spot, I'm still projecting him to win a starting job there. I'll likely adjust him down if we get more information on how he's adapting.
Just curious, why do you think he will outscore Stewart Bradley ???
Gaither is clearly the more proven player at this point. I'm not completely sold on Bradley but I'm warming up to him a bit. I think I'll likely be shifting a few tackles from Gaither to Bradley, but I think the big plays will help put Gaither over the top.
same could probably be said about Adrian Wilson, who went from making all kinds of big plays in 2005 and 2006 to 0 sacks, 0 FF, and 0 FR (with 2 INTs) in 9 games last year. He was a top-5 safety in the 3 years prior to last year and most believe he'll bounce back to that level again this year.Rhodes was disappointing last year and the dropoff in tackles is definitely a concern. I think it probably had to do with David Harris coming in and blowing up the way he did. If you look at his splits, the tackles dropped off a lot in the 2nd half but he also made up for it with 4 of his 5 interceptions so I'm not sure why you think he made "hardly any big plays". I think Harris will have a hard time keeping up that same pace he was on last year so he'll probably regress a bit and Rhodes will rebound with more tackles. But, the Jets improved pass rush up front with Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, and a rededicated Bryan Thomas should also give a player like Rhodes a lot of great playmaking opportunities. My tackle projections for him might be optimistic but I wouldn't be surprised to see him wind up as the #1 safety/DB this year.
Interesting.Thanks
had the wrong playerID for him and I immediately sent Dodds a note on it. He said he updated it. Should show up on the website at some point I hope.I have him projected for:72 solos, 29 assists, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD, 2 FF, 1 FR, and 160.8 fantasy points.
Nice job
