Player Spotlight: Laurence Maroney (1 Viewer)

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Laurence Maroney Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

This guy is frustrating but one has to think he can finally put it together here. The offense is too good for him to keep messing this up.

240 carries 1,100 yds, 8 TD

16 rec 120 yds,

1220 yds and 8 TD...and I think we all see where he could post even better numbers.

People are going to go all out to stop the NE passing game, via nickel defenses or intense pass rush. Either way, it would seem the running game stands to benefit. The question with Maroney is, does he keep the #1 job with a healthy Sammy Morris around? I personally don't think so, there's been too many whisperings about NE's dissatisfaction with LM and his running style. I'd give him maybe 900 yards and 4 TDs, with negligible receptions and rec yards.

Jercules said:

People are going to go all out to stop the NE passing game, via nickel defenses or intense pass rush. Either way, it would seem the running game stands to benefit. The question with Maroney is, does he keep the #1 job with a healthy Sammy Morris around? I personally don't think so, there's been too many whisperings about NE's dissatisfaction with LM and his running style. I'd give him maybe 900 yards and 4 TDs, with negligible receptions and rec yards.

Click to expand...

You can't be serious with this. Got any links? Maroney is a great buy low in dynasty leagues right now. Expectations were too high last year and he failed to meet them. Thus, he will be a good value this year.

240 carries, 1100 yds, 8 TDs

30 receptions, 240 yds, 1 TD

Maroney is an anomaly. The guy is capable of putting up 1200-1500 total yards and 10-14 TDs if he is fed the ball enough. He is a very talented runner and is surrounded by a great supporting cast. Last year we saw him split carries with Sammy Morris and this hurt his value. I believe that Maroney's shoulder problem was the reason why the Pats kept his carries limited. They wanted him to be fresh for the playoffs. He was given the ball 22, 25, and 14 in the playoffs.

Maroney should start the season healthy and see more carries this year. I see a 60-40 split with Morris, and Maroney getting most of the goal line work.

240/1080/10 20/180/0

The dudes got upside

1220 yds rushing, 9 TDs, 17 catches, 140 yds recieving, 0 TDs

Maroney is a beast and I love watching him run. Unfortunately he plays for the Patriots. Outside of Brady and Moss there will be no studs for NE this year in FF. Belichick likes to spread the ball around to many receivers, and to many RB's as well. I don't ever remember a Belichick Patriots offense producing a solid RB FF stud. The only reason Brady has been money for so long is nobody runs a QBBC.

Maoney's numbers should be similar to last year with another solid group of RB's to round it out. I see Maroney getting 230 carries for 1050 yards and about 6 TDs. Receiving will be minimal, in the area of 20 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD.

DILLONS' 2004 year - 1635 Yds RUSHING & 12 TDs' (along with a Super Bowl) were "pretty good" for an older RB (30) with a lot of carries. Billy B clearly didn't have the faith in Maroney to carry the load at the beginning of last year and whether he does this year or not is the ? IMO (not that NE "always" has a RBBC)....

Alot of people knock on his running style.

Everytime I've seen him run, he's been a beast. The first time I seen him play in college, first and goal on the goal line and he powered right in.

First time I see him in college, the guy gets him wrapped up, tries to bring him down, and the legs drive the guy another 7 yards. Alot of what I've seen from him remind me of Larry Johnson. He's a tough runner, make no mistakes.

The injury last year seemed to be under estimated in the impact it had on him.

Still, I don't see them taking Sammy Morris out of the game completely. He's a tough runner as well, my understanding was they made it a priority to get him, as Belicek really likes him. With another good back, why run the young stud into the ground?

The passing game will remain unstoppable. Moss can't really be contained. Chad Jackson is going to be a very good receiver in this league, in a different situation, he'd go for 1,000 yards this year, and potentially still could. Don't worry, I'm not forgetting Welker...defenses just have too much to account for, I think they'll sling it just as much and get the open man every time.

I do think he'll take the lions share this year, and given his playoff performance, they may be inclined to put him on the goal line as well.

2 years in the league, he's gotten 4.3 and 4.5 ypc, and 6 rushing tds. I think he should get numbers comparable to those with higher attempts/yards. The way things played out last year with the 3rd down plays, Faulk and Morris will probably still take most of the RB receptions.

255 rushes

1175 yards

6 tds

14 receptions

115 receiving yards

0 tds.

These numbers are low, I realize. This is more so a floor projection. He could easily get 1500 and 9-12 tds in that offense if the touches are there.

Another spotlight, another opportunity for my projection to be trashed. I think that Maroney is one reason why you can stockpile stud WRs and still pick up quality RBs in 2008. I think that folks are unerestimating the injury in early 07, overestimating the ability of Sammy Morris (L Betts 2), and also overthinking the Pats huge passing attack last year. The truth is that New England loves to be unpredictable and the running attack will very likely be as important as the pass this year. I also think that Maroney is more talented than anybody else they have. I also realize that Mr. Yudkin knows the Patriots and my thinking on Maroney's utilization goes against that and the boards opinion. Nevertheless...........

Maroney 300 carries for 1350 yards and 25 receptions for 240 yards and 10 total TDs

Quite the bargain when rated as a lower tier RB2. Bash away, I expect it.

rzrback77 said:

Another spotlight, another opportunity for my projection to be trashed. I think that Maroney is one reason why you can stockpile stud WRs and still pick up quality RBs in 2008. I think that folks are unerestimating the injury in early 07, overestimating the ability of Sammy Morris (L Betts 2), and also overthinking the Pats huge passing attack last year. The truth is that New England loves to be unpredictable and the running attack will very likely be as important as the pass this year. I also think that Maroney is more talented than anybody else they have. I also realize that Mr. Yudkin knows the Patriots and my thinking on Maroney's utilization goes against that and the boards opinion. Nevertheless...........

Maroney 300 carries for 1350 yards and 25 receptions for 240 yards and 10 total TDs

Quite the bargain when rated as a lower tier RB2. Bash away, I expect it.

Click to expand...

Ok then...I see the #'s as completely attainable, but that would make him a mid to low RB1.

In theory it makes sense. Laurence Maroney is a decent enough running back playing in the best offense in NFL history. By all rights he should be a fantasy stud. Unfortunately for whatever reason (injury, Sammy Morris, whatever) that hasn't happened yet. He's still really young. In his 3rd season he'll only be 23 years old so this could be the season that he finally breaks out. I just don't know what to make of him though. I wish he was a better receiver. If that was the case Belichick would have no choice but to give him more playing time. Definitely more than the 6 starts he had last season.

225/1000/9

15/150/0

He could be anywhere from a top-5 running back to not even in the top-25. For where he's getting drafted I'm not sure if he's worth the risk.

255/1175/8TD's

20/175/1TD

200 carries, 910 yards, 5 TD's

16 Rec., 140 yards, 0 TD's

Jamal Anderson didn't breakout until his 4th NFL season, while Steven Jackson broke out in his 3rd NFL season..

Sometimes it takes a while for the 'light' to come on with these guys,and/or the offense to change to a run-heavy type..

You'd think that the Patriots will try to be more like the SB winning teams they've had in the past, i.e, strong running game, etc..Maroney has a lot of hype heading into last season and he just never got things going..interestingly, tho, his ypc avg went up to 4.5 from 4.3..

They ranked 5th in rushing attempts in 2004, and I'm sure they'll try to reproduce that in 2008. Manning fell from 49 TD's to 28 the following season, and IMO, Brady will drop back to mere 'mortal' levels, i.e, 28 TD's this season. The vast majority of players who set NFL records, fail to reproduce those stats the following season, in fact, they don't even come close ( LT went from 28 td to 15 the following season)..

This leaves a lot of scoring to be made on the ground..The air-it-out offense they used last season will get Brady killed if opposing defenses employ the same techniques the Giants used in the SB ( strong pass rush/blitzes)..

Also, they play some very defensively-challenged teams in 2008, particularly in teams that can't stop the run...

first three weeks: Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins...Maroney should have nearly 400 rushing yards heading into NE's week four bye......

They also play the Niners, Broncos, Rams, Raiders, Cards, Bills (2x), and the Jets and Dolphins again in November..

Maroney should be a terrific value pick in fantasy drafts, relative to his ADP..

325/1462/14..Pro Bowl season for him.

Lot of high projections in here. I'm a fan of Maroney's talent -- I think he is a good RB. He flashed his potential in the playoffs, but I doubt that he is used that way during the season. Morris and Faulk are both quality role-players who will drain touches, particularly in the passing game.

225 carries for 1000 yards, 15 catches for 150 yards, and 7 total TDs

Coeur de Lion said:

Lot of high projections in here. I'm a fan of Maroney's talent -- I think he is a good RB. He flashed his potential in the playoffs, but I doubt that he is used that way during the season. Morris and Faulk are both quality role-players who will drain touches, particularly in the passing game.225 carries for 1000 yards, 15 catches for 150 yards, and 7 total TDs

Click to expand...

I'm a Pats fan and this is about what I'm thinking for Maroney. With Morris in the picture, there is no way Maroney breaks out into a full-fledged RB1.Morris is the much savvier play in re-draft. He had an anomalous injury -- chest bruise or something? -- that should be fully healed. He'll make the best value RB3 in re-draft.

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

AnonymousBob said:

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

Click to expand...

Because there is no need to blow teams out by 40 points and put their superstar Brady in danger of getting injured.

Laurence Maroney:

I was in awe of the Patriot offense last season, as everyone else was. However, the one thing I would say is that the Patriots didn't have a running game and it would hurt them come playoff time. As the season wore on, the Patriots style of offense adapted a little bit to how they were going to play in the playoffs and they relied more on Maroney.....and to my surprise he was up to the challenge. I thought he ran hard and made plays I didn't think he was capable of. Although the Patriots are so good on offense and there's only 1 ball, he'll still get some solid numbers.

950 yards rushing and 8 td's, 10 receptions for 50 yards.

AnonymousBob said:

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

Click to expand...

Some teams run to set up the pass in a game, others pass to set up the run. The Pats have been passing to set up the run for an entire season last year. The Pats have so many weapons, and Maroney showed in the stretch that he is one of those weapons. The Pats are adept at keeping defenses off balance. Defenses will be so focused on stopping the passing game this year, that I can see Maroney having a very easy time finding running room. RSH 260/YD 1,196/Avg 4.6/TD 9/ REC 15/YD 132/Avg 8.8 / TD 2

He can't stay healthy and he isn't treated like a workhorse back by BB. Sammy Morris will continue to steal at least 1/3 of carries that would otherwise go to Maroney. Maroney's full value won't be realized until: a) he becomes a man and stops letting nagging injuries slow him down, or b) he leaves NE.

225 carries, 950 yards, 7 TDs

15 catches, 125 yards, 0 TDs

And yes, I'm projecting him to miss 2-3 games. Everyone should.

Coeur de Lion said:

Lot of high projections in here. I'm a fan of Maroney's talent -- I think he is a good RB. He flashed his potential in the playoffs, but I doubt that he is used that way during the season. Morris and Faulk are both quality role-players who will drain touches, particularly in the passing game.225 carries for 1000 yards, 15 catches for 150 yards, and 7 total TDs

Click to expand...

215 carries989 yards8 TD16 rec 176 yards0 TD

I'm a Maroney owner so I'm certainly hoping he'll hit some of these numbers but do you guys honestly think teams weren't trying to stop the New England passing assault last season? Even if teams follow the blueprint laid out by the Giants, that doesn't mean they have the talent to stop Tom Brady. It's not as though teams were trying to stuff the run all of last year and Brady decided to burn them each game...teams were selling out to stop the pass and they STILL couldn't prevent Moss/Welker from scoring. I just don't understand why that will suddenly change.

It's one thing to change up your offensive strategies to keep teams off balance. But when your opponent knows exactly what you're doing and they still can't slow you down, let alone stop you, I just don't see a need to change.

AnonymousBob said:

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

Click to expand...

Patriots game by game reviewGame 1 - 22 of 28 attempts for 297 pass yards with 3 TDs & 34 rushes for 131 yards with 1 TD Game 2 - 25 of 31 attempts for 279 pass yards with 3 TDs & 28 rushes for 138 yards with 1 TD Game 3 - 23 of 29 attempts for 311 pass yards with 4 TDs & 37 rushes for 175 yards with 1 TD Game 4 - 25 of 32 attempts for 231 pass yards with 3 TDs & 31 rushes for 151 yards with 1 TD Game 5 - 22 of 38 attempts for 265 pass yards with 3 TDs & 30 rushes for 124 yards with 0 TD The above rushing totals are for only running backs and do not include rushing attempts or yardage by WRs or QBs. The point is that the Patriots were very balanced through the first five games, except for the red zone TDS. This occurred even after Maroney was injured and missed games four and five. When Morris was injured in game six, they had only Faulk left. That is when the dependence on the passing game changed. Maroney came back in game seven, but did not get over 15 carries until game fifteen and the offense became more balanced down the stretch. I truly think that they changed out of necessity and will revert to much more balance in 08.

rzrback77 said:

AnonymousBob said:

Why would the Patriots stop doing what worked so well for them last season?

Click to expand...

Patriots game by game reviewGame 1 - 22 of 28 attempts for 297 pass yards with 3 TDs & 34 rushes for 131 yards with 1 TD Game 2 - 25 of 31 attempts for 279 pass yards with 3 TDs & 28 rushes for 138 yards with 1 TD Game 3 - 23 of 29 attempts for 311 pass yards with 4 TDs & 37 rushes for 175 yards with 1 TD Game 4 - 25 of 32 attempts for 231 pass yards with 3 TDs & 31 rushes for 151 yards with 1 TD Game 5 - 22 of 38 attempts for 265 pass yards with 3 TDs & 30 rushes for 124 yards with 0 TD The above rushing totals are for only running backs and do not include rushing attempts or yardage by WRs or QBs. The point is that the Patriots were very balanced through the first five games, except for the red zone TDS. This occurred even after Maroney was injured and missed games four and five. When Morris was injured in game six, they had only Faulk left. That is when the dependence on the passing game changed. Maroney came back in game seven, but did not get over 15 carries until game fifteen and the offense became more balanced down the stretch. I truly think that they changed out of necessity and will revert to much more balance in 08.

Click to expand...

Those first few games had the Pats runing the ball 10-12 times in the 4th quarter to run out the clock. I suppose that could happen again if the Pats score as much as they did last year and the defense gave up as few points this year. However, IMO, both of those are certainly debatable.

He has all the opportunity to produce. He just needs to stay healthy.

Rushes 280

Rushing Yards 1260

Rush TDs 11

Receptions 10

Receiving Yards 100

Receiving TDs 0

I'm doubtful that he will have a real opportunity to be "stud" like, but will have huge upside potential for a second round pick, with slightly more than average injury risk.

I don't see him exceeding 50% of total running touches, even thought he did show significant improvement in "power" running style later last season.

Prior to that he looked much more like the quick-cutting back, causing a bit of an all-or-nothing result (ie four rushes was more likely to yield 0,-2, 0, 20 than 4,5,3,5). That poses a situtation limiting dilemna for any coach. While I do expect him to be developed a bit more to the power type in 2008, he wont be the that in the coaches eyes, at least not yet. And the Pats have never used an "every down" back.

The one thing I've not yet seen in the discussion is Maroney's under-utilization in the passing game, particularly in light of the fact that K faulk, who has averaged 39 rec's/season since 2000 (before factoring injuries in 2004-2005 that caused him to miss 13 games!) is 32. I would look for Maroneys passing game numbers to make a significant improvement in the next year. Picture him getting the ball in the flat, with a couple yards open in front of him to get up to speed and set up his moves!

To summarize my projection, the running game will be more of the same, the passing game will be improved, and TDs? His goal line utilization is a factor of too many other things to say right now.

"Safe"

200 carries for 900 yds

15 recs for 200

6TDs

Keep in mind while he missed some games to injury last season, he also had an enhanced role due to the absence of Morris

This puts him as a "safe" pick at the end of round 2 in RB heavy leagues

"Genuinely Possible Upside"

230/1035

35/525

12 TDs

This puts him in MB3/Frank Gore territory, RB6 ish.

I expect he'll be closer to the first set.

The second requires that coaches recognize him as more of an everydown, rugged type, and Faulk sees limited action.

I really like his upside as a RB2 if you can get him there. His main problem is that this is definitely a pass first offense, and to make matters worse he'll have few opportunities to add receptions/receiving yards given the way that they use Faulk and Welker. He also needs to show that he can stay healthy. Assuming as I always do that he'll play 16 games:

250/1150/8

15/140/0

And he has a better chance of exceeding those numbers than failing to reach them if he stays healthy.

I also like Maroney's upside, the only thing I don't like is the fact that he only had 4 receptions last year so those of you talking about a 30-35 reception season I just see that as unrealistic. It's just too bad he doesn't catch better out of the backfield, if NE had a RB with some recieving ability they could put up huge numbers.

People need to remember that real football is different than fantasy football. NE has set roles and situations for their RBs. Sure, it would be nice for Maroney to be in on every down, but IIRC, KEVIN FAULK was the one that played the most snaps last season.

That's why I mentioned in the Maroney PS that based on upside Maroney is an intriguing pick, but based on practical reality I don't see him coming close to his upside this season. IMO, too many other offensive weapons and too many other RBs that will take away snaps and opportunities (along with the occasional health issue). Maroney seems destined to again be a bit of a disappointment when you stop to consider what he could produce if he were the focal point of the Pats offense.

He's also a tough guy to want on your roster given that there will be weeks where NE's game plan is pass, pass, and pass some more and he will have been summarily ruled out of seeing the ball by Wednesday before the game. Of the top of my head, I have a hard time coming up with other RBs where that has to be a consideration . . .

Tatum Bell said:

I really like his upside as a RB2 if you can get him there. His main problem is that this is definitely a pass first offense, and to make matters worse he'll have few opportunities to add receptions/receiving yards given the way that they use Faulk and Welker. He also needs to show that he can stay healthy. Assuming as I always do that he'll play 16 games:250/1150/815/140/0And he has a better chance of exceeding those numbers than failing to reach them if he stays healthy.

Click to expand...

agreed. I am keeping him as my RB2 behind Addai and I expect solid numbers with the definite possibility of producing like a RB1a. I think he will be involved more in the passing game this year, he'll be coming into the season healthy and honestly he looked pretty good towards the end of the season-scoring 6 TD's in the last 7 games. Regarding the passing game, he had 7 receptions last year for a total of 168 yards. Thats an average of 24 ypc. I can't think of a reason to not involve him more in the passing game. Goaline/Redzone? Who knows. I can't really say with any sort of confidence that he'll get any redzone looks at all. Too many options there. I personally see these as being baseline numbers with far greater upside if he sees a majority of the goaline carries:275/1250/830/250/21500 all purpose and 10 TD's.*Edit: These numbers are assuming that he is healthy and not in any sort of doghouse with Belicheck. IIRC last year there was some talk that Bill was getting annoyed with Maroney's seemingly inability to stay healthy or more importantly fight through pain.

Another question I had for those pegging Maroney for 300+ touches between rushes and receptions . . . that's basically 120 more touches than last season.

If we assume that NE at best has the same number of offensive plays (they had 1031 which was on the high side), that would mean that those 120 touches have to come at the expense of other players.

Who will lose out to give Maroney more work? (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

260 carries, 1080 yds, 7 TDs. 15 catches 100 yds, 0 TDs.

Faulk/Morris will see touches which limits his upside, but Maroney has talent to burn and will be on the field enough to be an effective #2.

David Yudkin said:

Another question I had for those pegging Maroney for 300+ touches between rushes and receptions . . . that's basically 120 more touches than last season.If we assume that NE at best has the same number of offensive plays (they had 1031 which was on the high side), that would mean that those 120 touches have to come at the expense of other players. Who will lose out to give Maroney more work? (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

Click to expand...

Maroney missed 3 full games last season and parts of 2-3 others IIRC. If he stays healthy he may see a bump in touches, though obviously a healthy Morris could counter-act that. I just think Maroney is better than Morris and will be on the field more, though he will fall short of 300 touches IMO.

gman8343 said:

David Yudkin said:

Another question I had for those pegging Maroney for 300+ touches between rushes and receptions . . . that's basically 120 more touches than last season.If we assume that NE at best has the same number of offensive plays (they had 1031 which was on the high side), that would mean that those 120 touches have to come at the expense of other players. Who will lose out to give Maroney more work? (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

Click to expand...

Maroney missed 3 full games last season and parts of 2-3 others IIRC. If he stays healthy he may see a bump in touches, though obviously a healthy Morris could counter-act that. I just think Maroney is better than Morris and will be on the field more, though he will fall short of 300 touches IMO.

Click to expand...

At the same level of production, Maroney would have been projected out to 227-1022-7 and 5-145-0 (158 fantasy points) if he got credited for 16 games. Last year, that would have ranked him 18th and in 2006 that would have ranked him 25th.Certainly that's not terrible and he has a high veiling, but I'm not sure those that drafted him in the 10-15 rank last year would think he was a bargain. This year he's more likely a Top 15-25 range depending on the league. We'll have to wait to hear back at the end of the year from those that took him as to whether they were happy in taking him in that range.

David Yudkin said:

Another question I had for those pegging Maroney for 300+ touches between rushes and receptions . . . that's basically 120 more touches than last season.If we assume that NE at best has the same number of offensive plays (they had 1031 which was on the high side), that would mean that those 120 touches have to come at the expense of other players. Who will lose out to give Maroney more work? (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

Click to expand...

The widely held assumption is that Morris' touches will go to Maroney. Last year, combined, they had 280 touches. One more touch per game basically gets you to 300, and most people think that Welker and Moss virtually have to revert towards the mean after last year's ridiculous numbers. That doesn't seem like that big of a stretch, does it?

hickbones said:

Maroney is a beast and I love watching him run. Unfortunately he plays for the Patriots. Outside of Brady and Moss there will be no studs for NE this year in FF. Belichick likes to spread the ball around to many receivers, and to many RB's as well. I don't ever remember a Belichick Patriots offense producing a solid RB FF stud. The only reason Brady has been money for so long is nobody runs a QBBC.

Maoney's numbers should be similar to last year with another solid group of RB's to round it out. I see Maroney getting 230 carries for 1050 yards and about 6 TDs. Receiving will be minimal, in the area of 20 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD.

Click to expand...

Bingo.215 carries

975 Yards

3 TD's

17 receptions

105 yards

1 TD's

hickbones said:

Maroney is a beast and I love watching him run. Unfortunately he plays for the Patriots. Outside of Brady and Moss there will be no studs for NE this year in FF. Belichick likes to spread the ball around to many receivers, and to many RB's as well. I don't ever remember a Belichick Patriots offense producing a solid RB FF stud.

Click to expand...

Corey Dillon?Antowain Smith?

Tatum Bell said:

David Yudkin said:

Another question I had for those pegging Maroney for 300+ touches between rushes and receptions . . . that's basically 120 more touches than last season.If we assume that NE at best has the same number of offensive plays (they had 1031 which was on the high side), that would mean that those 120 touches have to come at the expense of other players. Who will lose out to give Maroney more work? (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

Click to expand...

The widely held assumption is that Morris' touches will go to Maroney. Last year, combined, they had 280 touches. One more touch per game basically gets you to 300, and most people think that Welker and Moss virtually have to revert towards the mean after last year's ridiculous numbers. That doesn't seem like that big of a stretch, does it?

Click to expand...

People can think whatever they want . . . but Morris was on pace for 185-190 touches (based on the limited number of games he and Maroney played together). So yes, to me that seems like a bit of a stretch. So I stand by my opinion that Morris and Faulk will see signficant roles and Eckel and Evans will pirate a few TDs. And NE is not done in terms of screening additional RBs. So while it's easy to say that Maroney is going to get a ton more touches, I don't see evidence that that is the plan. (And that's not even considering the people I know that are telling me that there is no master plan to make Maroney a focal piece of the offense . . . which may or may not be worth anything.)

Maroney is low RB2 / high RB3 for another couple years, until he becomes a FA. Once he leaves the Pats, and only then, his full value will be realized.

David Yudkin said:

gman8343 said:

David Yudkin said:

Another question I had for those pegging Maroney for 300+ touches between rushes and receptions . . . that's basically 120 more touches than last season.If we assume that NE at best has the same number of offensive plays (they had 1031 which was on the high side), that would mean that those 120 touches have to come at the expense of other players. Who will lose out to give Maroney more work? (WRs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

Click to expand...

Maroney missed 3 full games last season and parts of 2-3 others IIRC. If he stays healthy he may see a bump in touches, though obviously a healthy Morris could counter-act that. I just think Maroney is better than Morris and will be on the field more, though he will fall short of 300 touches IMO.

Click to expand...

At the same level of production, Maroney would have been projected out to 227-1022-7 and 5-145-0 (158 fantasy points) if he got credited for 16 games. Last year, that would have ranked him 18th and in 2006 that would have ranked him 25th.Certainly that's not terrible and he has a high veiling, but I'm not sure those that drafted him in the 10-15 rank last year would think he was a bargain. This year he's more likely a Top 15-25 range depending on the league. We'll have to wait to hear back at the end of the year from those that took him as to whether they were happy in taking him in that range.

Click to expand...

I agree, which is why my projections are tempered somewhat - they're actually quite similar: 1080 yds, 7 TDs. 15 catches 100 yds, 0 TDs.

Michael J Fox said:

Maroney is low RB2 / high RB3 for another couple years, until he becomes a FA. Once he leaves the Pats, and only then, his full value will be realized.

Click to expand...

That's one of the funniest opinions Ive read in a long time. RB3? On the best offense in football, with two of the oldest backups in the league behind him, one of which is a journeyman who's hurt every year? Youre killin' me over here. Listen, fellas. We all know what Im about to say, but I'll say it anyway. Forecasts shouldnt be merely a regurgitation of past seasons' #s. With a team and an offense as comlex as New Englands, with multiple dynamics to be considered from year to year, you can pretty much throw out what happened a year ago or the year prior to that. You can always count on one thing, though, which is that Brady will lead the team to alot of wins. So consequently, the team will have the ability, if it chooses, to run the ball a ton in the 2nd half of virtually every single game. We're just assuming that because it didnt happen last season it wont happen? I laugh when I see Maroney lableled a RB3. Based on what? How he finished the season? How he performed over the larger segment of the season prior to leading countless owners to titles in the end? Based on the fact that he's 'stuck' in New England? Or simply because the coaching staff has no faith in this 23 year old has been of a RB? The kid is a stud, he has the full faith of Belichick, he NEVER fumbles, he's hungry, his team always wins and can run the ball whenever it chooses, he'll hardly ever see 8 men fronts, and he has 2 old-timers picking up the slack behind him. He's also signed to a 5 year contract. And I'll once again make this point because it shouldnt be ignored. New England isnt in the business of not getting maximum value out of the contracts of their players. They have a couple of years to work Maroney like a rented mule before he's up for a new deal. Youd better know theyre going to do just that. Here are some realistic #s to expect:300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

twitch said:

300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

Click to expand...

I'm a Maroney dynasty owner and would love nothing more than for this to happen, but how on earth can you say that that offense is going to change so much that it's going to essentially feature a RB the way that you're predicting? I just don't see it, not this year anyway.

twitch said:

300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

Click to expand...

Let me know who loses out (roughly 150 plays) for this to happen. Better yet, how about a full projection for the Pat's offense.I've seen practically every play Maroney has played and do not come to the same adjectives and conclusions that you do, but we can debate that part after you post the offensive breakdown for NE . . .

Tatum Bell said:

twitch said:

300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

Click to expand...

I'm a Maroney dynasty owner and would love nothing more than for this to happen, but how on earth can you say that that offense is going to change so much that it's going to essentially feature a RB the way that you're predicting? I just don't see it, not this year anyway.

Click to expand...

New England is about as unpredictable as they come. Did anyone even for a second consider Brady reaching 50TDs? Or Moss breaking the TD record? Noone in their right mind considered either, and they both happened. How about a 16-0 regular season? How many of us called that? Now, that was all beautiful to watch, but I doubt very seriously any of that will happen again. Id expect Brady to reach somewhere in the 35ish range, and Moss in the 15ish range, if that. This offense will still be explosive. Just dont expect Maroney to be standing around on the sidelines all season again watching it happen. Some of us know better. And youre one of the lucky ones who will reap the rewards.

twitch said:

Here are some realistic #s to expect:300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

Click to expand...

Wow. I can't say that I share the same optimistic outlook you do, though I must admit, nothing would make me happier. I made a mid-season trade for him when his value was in the cellar, specifically based on this type of thinking. I would say I agree 100% with the yardage totals, TD's will depend greatly on whether or not they decide to include 15 different RB's/FB's/TE's/LB's etc at the goaline. If they truly decide to use Maroney as a workhorse, including red zone, then I would have to agree the guy is going put up some monster numbers. I just don't have faith that he will get the opportunities. I also can't predict a passing TD from a RB. Even LT.

David Yudkin said:

twitch said:

300 carries1350yds13TDs28 catches224yds1 TD1-2 passing12yds1TDThe TD # is conservative. I fully expect him to flirt with 20TDs this season. But no point in overshooting.

Click to expand...

Let me know who loses out (roughly 150 plays) for this to happen. Better yet, how about a full projection for the Pat's offense.I've seen practically every play Maroney has played and do not come to the same adjectives and conclusions that you do, but we can debate that part after you post the offensive breakdown for NE . . .

Click to expand...

DY-Here's my bottom line thinking. NE has 'failed' by their own standards, by really any team's ultimate goal, for the past 3 seasons. Theyve certainly had great teams and played well. They didnt get it done for various reasons. Last year was certainly closer than the previous 2 years, but in the end, imo, it was their unwillingness or inablity to run the football effectively, whichever anyone wants to debate was the case, that cost them that Superbowl win. Brady was lit up like a Christmas tree, the pressure was relentless, they were in the game or leading throughout most of the contest, yet continued to needlessly air it out despite the Giants' fierce pass rush. 48 pass attempts with 5 sacks in that particular game, considering the circumstances, was really inexcusable. They led almost the entire game, yet they ran the ball a grand total of 16 times. They dropped back to pass 53 times. That's a pass to run ratio of far greater than 3 to 1. They ran the ball in that game 23.2% of the time. 16 carries! How old is their offensive coordinator again? Exactly. His youth and inexperience showed in that game, and was costly. Well, in '06, it was the passing game that was horrendous. They couldnt complete one measely pass to gain a 1st down to close out that AFCC game against the Colts. And then we saw how than changed in the offseason. Change in personnel, change in philosophy. Air Brady. Get to the Superbowl, cant run the ball, game over. Where was the balance? It was there against San Diego and Jacksonville. What a mystery. That was the most illogical game plan Ive ever seen executed in a big game in my life. Its not happening again. Look over the total # of plays NE has run for the past 5 seasons. They are amazingly similar. 1058, 1055,1031, 1035, 1042. Now, Im no statistician, but in 5 years, the total # of plays from season to season over a 16 game schedule never varied by more than 20 or so plays. Remarkable. Which tells us we can pretty much count on NE running over 1000 total offensive plays this season. We'll expect around 1050 to be more precise. The million dollar question is, what % of those will be running plays? Will it be around 42ish % like last year? Or will it be closer to the 50.6% like back in '04 when they last won a Superbowl? Do we NOT think New England is in the business of winning Superbowls? I certainly do. They set every conceivable passing record imaginable last year, and all it got them was misery. Heartbreak. Well, not entirely, but I overdramtize to stress the point. I cant get over them throwing the ball 53 times in a game they led throughout. What do you think the chances are that bothers them a little too? Im using that monumental upset as the basic premise for WHY New England will run the ball more often this year, and become really good at it again. They'll practice it all season, so when they really need to do it in the end, if theyre actually in a position to do so come January, theyll be a little more willing. Who's going to lose touches? I dont know that any one individual will specifically. Morris should get a backup's expected # of touches, because that's what he is - a backup. Faulk will get his fair share of 3rd down duty, draws and spot duty and probably his usual # of total touches. Evans and Eckel are a couple of meathead FBs who's touches will naturally be limited. Id expect a goalline look here or there. Here's the team breakdown. I havent given a huge amount of thought to this, but its ball park what Id expect. 1050 total plays510 runs (48.6%)540 passes (51.4%)RUSHING: Maroney 300 carries 1350ydsMorris 120 carries 500ydsFaulk 60 carries 250ydsEvans, Eckel 20 carries 75ydsBrady 10 carries 20ydsTotal Rushing - 510 carries 2195yds 28 rushing TDs (Id expect Maroney to have at or close to 20 of these)PASSING:Brady 340/520 4400yds 36TDsCassell 11/20 110yds 2TDsLet me know if you need more.

Twitch -

I don't care what you plug and play in terms of actual numbers, but the slots you are filling need to be accurate.

For starters, in the BB/Brady era the Pats have averaged 1036 offensive plays per year. But they have also averaged 38 sacks allowed, leaving their usuable plays at 998 per season. You have them down for 1050, so that should be cut by at least 50 IMO.

You have Brady down for 10 rushing attempts. NE has averaged 46 rushing attempts by QB. So in my universe you need to up the 10 to 45.

As far as RB carries, NE has averaged 411 rushing attempts by RB. You have them down for 500. I would not go that high, but I guess that's your call.

Passing wise, you have them projected at 540 attempts. That's the one thing that you listed that is fairly accurate in terms of historical trends, as they have averaged 541 passes a year. HOWEVER, I would say that does not account for the Randy Moss/Wes Welker factor and IMO given their roster they will be more predisposed to pass the ball more.

Ratio wise, you have them at 500 running back rushing attempts to 540 passing attempts for a 48/52% ratio. Historically, they have averaged 411 RB rushing attempts to 541 passing attempts (a 43/57% ratio). And that does not account for the newly rejuvenated passing game. So IMO your ratio is off at least 5%.

Certainly anything is possible, but I don't see the RBs getting almost 100 more attempts this year at the expense of nearly 65 completions.

David Yudkin said:

Twitch -I don't care what you plug and play in terms of actual numbers, but the slots you are filling need to be accurate.For starters, in the BB/Brady era the Pats have averaged 1036 offensive plays per year. But they have also averaged 38 sacks allowed, leaving their usuable plays at 998 per season. You have them down for 1050, so that should be cut by at least 50 IMO.You have Brady down for 10 rushing attempts. NE has averaged 46 rushing attempts by QB. So in my universe you need to up the 10 to 45.As far as RB carries, NE has averaged 411 rushing attempts by RB. You have them down for 500. I would not go that high, but I guess that's your call.Passing wise, you have them projected at 540 attempts. That's the one thing that you listed that is fairly accurate in terms of historical trends, as they have averaged 541 passes a year. HOWEVER, I would say that does not account for the Randy Moss/Wes Welker factor and IMO given their roster they will be more predisposed to pass the ball more.Ratio wise, you have them at 500 running back rushing attempts to 540 passing attempts for a 48/52% ratio. Historically, they have averaged 411 RB rushing attempts to 541 passing attempts (a 43/57% ratio). And that does not account for the newly rejuvenated passing game. So IMO your ratio is off at least 5%.Certainly anything is possible, but I don't see the RBs getting almost 100 more attempts this year at the expense of nearly 65 completions.

Click to expand...

I had a feeling I was pretty much being set up, but I went ahead and played along, even though I told you from the get go that Id not put a ton of thought into those #s. But pick 'em apart. Cut me some slack with the "In my universe" stuff, though. Lets stay above that type of lowly commentary. You either get the jist of my suggestions or you dont. They ran the ball at a 42.6% clip last year. It was ultimately unsuccessful. They ran the ball at a 50.6% clip in '04 when they last won a Superbowl. Im simply suggesting theyll run closer to that percentage the upcoming season. Youre suggesting Im trying to pull a rabbit out of my hat here. You can buy into the simple logic or resist it. But dont suggest such a simple adjustment in philosophy of about 5-6 more running plays rather than passes a game is some sort of monumental impossibility. Its really not that far of a stretch.