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Player Spotlight: Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Reggie Bush Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.

 
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards11 Combined TDsI still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
I'm not that optimistic. Although I know that his value is pretty low right now, I decided to trade him a few weeks ago because I have MB3, McGahee, Turner and Forte as my other RBs (I could have traded Turner for the same price). Bush should be very valuable in a PPR, but his 3.7 YPC doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his skills as a workhorse...My projections for 2008:170 carries, 650 yards85 catches, 700 yards8 combined TDs
 
200 carries, 750 yards, 5 TD

80 catches, 600 yards, 3 TD

1,350 yds, 8 TD

He will still be a top10 in PPR leagues. He has almost no one pushing him for touches. Pierre Thomas was a nice story at the end of the year, but talk about taking 1 game and making projections...people that blow up Thomas are simply Bush haters.

The fact Deuce is being drafted after his 2nd ACL injury is ridiculous.

 
hankey2mlh said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
I'm not that optimistic. Although I know that his value is pretty low right now, I decided to trade him a few weeks ago because I have MB3, McGahee, Turner and Forte as my other RBs (I could have traded Turner for the same price). Bush should be very valuable in a PPR, but his 3.7 YPC doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his skills as a workhorse...My projections for 2008:

170 carries, 650 yards

85 catches, 700 yards

8 combined TDs
Click to expand...
I definetly would have traded Turner instead of Bush. You have very modest #'s for Bush (and I can't totally disagree with them) but those would be loftly #'s for Turner's season to project. The fact is Reggie is at his lowest point to be bought right now. When he is the featured guy, which he should be this year, he should get you 10 points a game minimal. I'll take him as a great #2 rb with tremendous upside.Projection: 220 carries 850 yards rushing 9 td's (I predict a few more longer runs this year before being ?'ed about his increase ypc)

75 catches 675 yards recieving 4 td's

1500 yards + and about 13 scores sounds right

 
I think Reggie Bush has all the talent in the world and a very good work ethic. He is a great receiver out of the backfield, but to become more productive in non-ppr leagues he has to become more of a patient runner. He also needs to gain a bit of weight to be a more effective runner between the tackles imo.

192/730/6 84/605/2

Top 10 in PPR-Leagues

Top 20 in Non-PPR-Leagues

 
I still believe Reggie Bush is a tremendous talent and can be a great weapon. I think this is the year it all comes together and he starts scoring TD's in bunches.

225/875/12

75/850/6

It is now or never as far as true stud status for Bush. I think he get's it done in 2008.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
people that blow up Thomas are simply Bush haters.
Click to expand...
XPT has skills and natural instincts as a runner that Bush has never shown at the NFL level. Just because someone recognizes that does make them a "Bush hater".

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Deuce and PT split the bulk of the carries this year with Reggie being more of a receiver. I don't think any RB in this offense will get 200 carries.

120 carries 450 yards 5 TD

90 receptions 800 yards 4 TD

 
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150 carries, 590 yards, 5 TD's

65 catches, 510 yards, 3 TD's

He is more a WR than a RB, and i think it will probably become more clear this year. I wouldnt be suprised if he ends up with more catches than carries in a season some time in the near future.

 
The fact that Pierre Thomas & Aaron Stecker both came in and did much better than Reggie leads me to believe that Bush is nothing more than a glorified decoy.

 
He also needs to gain a bit of weight to be a more effective runner between the tackles imo.
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And to take the beating from Kim Kardashian's giant a@#$#@%. :no:Ceiling: 195 carries, 750 yards, 85 catches, 740 yards with, say, 8-9 total TDs.Floor: 155 carries, 575 yards, 77 catches, 645 yards, 5-6 total TDs.So, I guess I'm expecting around 600-650 rushing yards with around 700 yards receiving on 80 catches with 7 total touchdowns.
 
jurb26 said:
215 carries, 860 yds, 6 TDs85 receptions, 600 yds, 3 TDs
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This is along the lines of what I'm thinking too. The biggest stretch here may be his yards per reception, which took a huge hit last year, but I think Peyton is a smart guy and will do a better job getting him open. That offense has the weapons to distract defenses away from Bush.
 
shadyridr said:
The fact that Pierre Thomas & Aaron Stecker both came in and did much better than Reggie leads me to believe that Bush is nothing more than a glorified decoy.
Click to expand...
This is the amazing thing. Bush simply hasn't shown that he can be a good runningback. That's it in a nutshell. He is a below average runner who has been outshined by guys with 1/50th the talent. That may change, but as of right now Bush has not earned a starting job in any capacity IMO, though he is a great recieving RB.
 
my opinion is that Bush will benefit from being on a potent Saints offense. Everyone wants to judge his value based on his ability to fit the mold of the typical RB. However, he's more valuable than a typical RB because he can kill you as a receiver .... to fast to be covered by a LB, too powerful to be covered by a CB. Just because he's sharing the rushes w/ Duece doesn't take away from how dangerous Bush is to opposing defenses. And don't forget ... Bush was playing through injuries much of last season. There's enough talent on that offense so that Bush isn't the only threat defenses have to worry about.

rush: 800yrds/6TDs

rec: 700yrds/5TDs

punt returns: 2 TDs

... although he'll probably rush for less than 1000yrds, he's still a threat to post double digit TDs.

 
Bush has appeared in 28 games in his two seasons in the league and has 1,146 rushing yards, 161 receptions, 1,159 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns.

That's an average of 82 total yards, 5.75 receptions, and .5 TDs per game.

Three other things with regards to last season:

1) The Saints got off to a pitiful start...they got beat 103-38 in their first three games. The entire offense suffered during this period. I wouldn't expect that to happen again.

2) Bush had a 3.7 YPC, but he also hurt his PCL vs. Jax (Week 9) and kept playing for four more weeks. He looked bad in doing so, too. However, Deuce had a 3.8 YPC, and Stecker had a 3.9 YPC. Not much difference.

3) Pierre Thomas had two games with double digit carries. He averaged 2.7 YPC on 12 carries vs CAR in Week 8 and then ran for 105 yards on 20 carries against CHI in week 17....The Bears had nothing to play for against the Saints the last week of the season, so I wouldn't get too carried away with that one performance.

I'll guess Bush misses a game or two and go with:

1200 total yards

80 receptions

7 TD's

 
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's

 
shadyridr said:
The fact that Pierre Thomas & Aaron Stecker both came in and did much better than Reggie leads me to believe that Bush is nothing more than a glorified decoy.
Click to expand...
they were more effective last season than deuce. does that mean they're superior to him? the sad fact of the matter is the saints o-line didn't perform well for maybe the first third of the season. they let teams pressure brees. they didn't run block at all. reggie's numbers improved and he had some good games. stecker and pierre had good games against AZ, ATL and CHI and those were teams that were not good run defenses. i don't know that it is entirely fair to make comparisons between their production in those games and the admittedly inconsistent production from reggie during the bulk of the season. if reggie had their production in those games - with the same W's and L's results - would we be talking about reggie the same way? i don't know that we would. the problem with reggie last year were the same problems the rest of the saints had. they were inconsistent. they have made some changes on the coaching side. they've done some things with personnel too. reggie's a tremendous value, i think. i think the bounce back for him is upon us this season. it's a bounceback for the saints as well. they're preparing for life post-Deuce, so i think you'll see them explore what they can do with Reggie. how much can he be modeled after westbrook?195 carries/800 yards/7tds75 receptions/600/5tds
 
Reggie Bush is a pretty tough player to figure out. I was sold on him coming out (luckily not quite sold enough to hugely overpay for him); is it really possible that his game just doesn't translate?

The thing that worries me most is the almost total lack of big plays: long play of 25 yards from scrimmage last year, and well under 6 yards/catch and 4 yards/rush career. He'll likely continue to have a large role this year, at least, but if he continues his dismal production per touch then those touches will go down eventually. The fact that he plays in a very good offense should help.

200 carries for 765 yards, 80 catches for 500 yards, and 7 total TDs

 
This is my most overrated player in the NFL. I'm sorry, I've said it entering the NFL and I've seen nothing to change my mind. If you're in a PPR league, then he's not dead weight as he can catch the ball.

600 yards rushing, 4 Td's 80 receptions, 499 yards and 2 TD's.

 
I think Bush is a better NFL player than fantasy player. Defenses focus so much on stopping him it completely opens up the Saints offense.

 
shadyridr said:
I think Bush is a better NFL player than fantasy player. Defenses focus so much on stopping him it completely opens up the Saints offense.
Click to expand...
I'd actually argue pretty strongly that he has been a much better fantasy player (PPR anyway) than NFL player. He has been pretty pedestrian as an NFL RB, and has been outplayed by pretty much every other RB on the Saints roster the past two years. He really hasn't added much of anything to this point. The improvement in the Saints offense is much more tied to the arrivals of Drew Brees and Marques Colston than it is to Reggie Bush, IMO.
 
Watching Aaron Stecker perform the Reggie Bush role better than Reggie Bush last year really soured me on Bush. The guy is still a PPR-top 10 pick but he just doesn't break or elude enough tackles to be an elite RB in the NFL. Throw in injury concerns and he'll always be a risk in my opinion.

For 2008 it sounds like Deuce will be back in the mix and perhaps Pierre Thomas. On the positive it sounds like Bush is working out with the coaches and team this offseason so there's always the possibility he could get to the next level. But until he does I'll be skeptical.

Based on 16 games:

192 carries

750 yards rushing

80 receptions

600 yards receiving

8 TD

 
i have a hard time getting excited about a rb that averages 3.7 ypc and has never topped 160 carries. he's a gimmick wr and at his adp i only see value in ppr leagues as a #2 rb.

155-550-4

85-730-4

 
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Bush has said he wants to win the MVP this year... So you know he is going to be in great shape going into the season... This is great news for anybody who ownes him... I think this is a break out year for Bush...

1100yrds 8TDs

711 Rec 3TDs

 
Frenchy Fuqua said:
Watching Aaron Stecker perform the Reggie Bush role better than Reggie Bush last year really soured me on Bush. The guy is still a PPR-top 10 pick but he just doesn't break or elude enough tackles to be an elite RB in the NFL. Throw in injury concerns and he'll always be a risk in my opinion.For 2008 it sounds like Deuce will be back in the mix and perhaps Pierre Thomas. On the positive it sounds like Bush is working out with the coaches and team this offseason so there's always the possibility he could get to the next level. But until he does I'll be skeptical.Based on 16 games:192 carries750 yards rushing80 receptions600 yards receiving8 TD
Click to expand...
For someone down on Bush your still giving him descent fanatsy #'s for next year. If your stating the floor (by not looking at the positive side) I think you should easily be able to say he is a good value for a rb #2 if you can get him late in the 2nd round or early 3rd. (NON PPR)
 
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
 
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Blackjacks said:
Frenchy Fuqua said:
Watching Aaron Stecker perform the Reggie Bush role better than Reggie Bush last year really soured me on Bush. The guy is still a PPR-top 10 pick but he just doesn't break or elude enough tackles to be an elite RB in the NFL. Throw in injury concerns and he'll always be a risk in my opinion.For 2008 it sounds like Deuce will be back in the mix and perhaps Pierre Thomas. On the positive it sounds like Bush is working out with the coaches and team this offseason so there's always the possibility he could get to the next level. But until he does I'll be skeptical.Based on 16 games:192 carries750 yards rushing80 receptions600 yards receiving8 TD
Click to expand...
For someone down on Bush your still giving him descent fanatsy #'s for next year. If your stating the floor (by not looking at the positive side) I think you should easily be able to say he is a good value for a rb #2 if you can get him late in the 2nd round or early 3rd. (NON PPR)
Click to expand...
Giving him 16 games of stats is fairly positive I'd say. I don't get too excited about 85 total yards and 0.5 TD per week but he's probably a good 3rd round pick in non-PPR.
 
I have him a dynasty league and I am extremely concerned about his performance. He just doesn't look good, let alone as special as he looked in college.

That said, I don't see a lot of competition on the team and team itself should be pretty solid so I expect reasonable stats this year nevertheless.

I'll say pretty close to what everyone else has been throwing out there.

900 rushing

600 receiving

1500 total

Maybe 7 TDs (5 and 2)

Owners can only hope he's going to have career track similar to Tiki Barber, whose first couple of years more or less sucked until he "got it". But I think this year will be his last shot at being anything close to a featured back. If he doesn't perform, I'd guess they will switch him to more of a full-time receiver or even just a slot guy.

 
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
I think these numbers would put him close to top 10 in standard scoring leagues based on 2007 numbers, but that was a down year for RB's. It would put him in the 10-15 range in a normal scoring year for RB's. All that being said, I still think he is a terrible RB, but he gets to be put in a starting roster as a RB when he is clearly better as a WR. His receiving yards and a couple highlight spin moves (that we will see over and over and over and over and over on ESPN) will net him more TD's than someone carrying the ball about 11-12 times a game, otherwise he would be in the 15-20 range.

 
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
And what is your prediction? This should be interesting considering you are wafer thin at RB my friend....
 
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
And what is your prediction? This should be interesting considering you are wafer thin at RB my friend....
Click to expand...
post #6 aboveProjection: 220 carries 850 yards rushing 9 td's (I predict a few more longer runs this year before being ?'ed about his increase ypc)

75 catches 675 yards recieving 4 td's

1500 yards + and about 13 scores sounds right

I wouldn't cry if I got top 15 #'s out of him

 
saintfool said:
shadyridr said:
The fact that Pierre Thomas & Aaron Stecker both came in and did much better than Reggie leads me to believe that Bush is nothing more than a glorified decoy.
Click to expand...
they were more effective last season than deuce. does that mean they're superior to him? the sad fact of the matter is the saints o-line didn't perform well for maybe the first third of the season. they let teams pressure brees. they didn't run block at all. reggie's numbers improved and he had some good games. stecker and pierre had good games against AZ, ATL and CHI and those were teams that were not good run defenses. i don't know that it is entirely fair to make comparisons between their production in those games and the admittedly inconsistent production from reggie during the bulk of the season. if reggie had their production in those games - with the same W's and L's results - would we be talking about reggie the same way? i don't know that we would. the problem with reggie last year were the same problems the rest of the saints had. they were inconsistent. they have made some changes on the coaching side. they've done some things with personnel too. reggie's a tremendous value, i think. i think the bounce back for him is upon us this season. it's a bounceback for the saints as well. they're preparing for life post-Deuce, so i think you'll see them explore what they can do with Reggie. how much can he be modeled after westbrook?195 carries/800 yards/7tds75 receptions/600/5tds
Click to expand...
Good post. The simple #'s don't tell the story about the Saints last year. I really don't think you could have an idea of what was going wrong unless you watched them week after week. Those that looked at Brees's #'s last year after the 1st 4 weeks might have bailed prematurely. But, if you actually watched those games, it was obvious that the problem wasn't Brees but the O-line. And it was corrected almost overnight (still not sure how). Those who held tight on Brees were thus rewarded.People are doing the same thing with Bush. The playcalling last year for the Saints was simply abysmal and they just did not use Reggie effectively. Add on to the fact that Deuce went down and Bush was asked to be an inside, carry the load guy for the first time and it just didn't work. If you want to look at what Bush is capable of, just look at the 2nd half of 2006. That is how he is best used and how I hope the Saints design their offense this year. Whether it's Deuce or someone else that gets the role as the between-the-tackle runner is uncertain at this point, but hopefully it's someone so that Bush can SHARE the lead role with a 2nd RB. But those of you that are simply looking at his YPC and are discouraged are missing the big picture on him, IMO.
 
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The problem for Bush in a dynasty league is that if he continues to put up...

R.Bush - Rushing DVOA -26.5% (#56 and last of all RBs with 75+ carries)

R.Bush - Receiving DVOA -2.9% (#32 among all RBs with 25+ passes)

... he'll eventually start losing touches. No coach is going to continue to give the ball 300 times a year to a guy who doesn't do anything with the touches.

 
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wdcrob said:
The problem for Bush in a dynasty league is that if he continues to put up...

R.Bush - Rushing DVOA -26.5% (#56 and last of all RBs with 75+ carries)

R.Bush - Receiving DVOA -2.9% (#32 among all RBs with 25+ passes)

... he'll eventually start losing touches. No coach is going to continue to give the ball 300 times a year to a guy who doesn't do anything with the touches.
Click to expand...
This looked bad when I first read it and even worse once I found out what DVOA stood for:
DVOA EXPLAINED

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now why would they do that? Football has one objective-to get to the end zone-and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance. All the yards in the world aren't useful if they all come in eight-yard chunks on third-and-10.

The popularity of fantasy football only exaggerates the problem. Fans have gotten used to judging players based on how much they help fantasy teams win and lose, not how much they help real teams win and lose. But fantasy scoring skews things by counting the yard between the one and the goal line as 61 times more important than all the other yards on the field. Let's say Steve Smith catches a pass on third-and-15 and goes 50 yards but gets tackled two yards from the goal line, and then DeShaun Foster takes the ball on first-and-goal from the two-yard line and plunges in for the score. Or, let's say that the Falcons take a touchback on the opening kickoff, and the Carolina defense stuffs Warrick Dunn twice, and on third-and-10 Michael Vick throws the ball into the arms of Ken Lucas, who gets taken down by Alge Crumpler at the two-yard line. Then on the ensuing first-and-goal, Foster scores a touchdown.

Has Foster done something special? Not really. When an offense gets the ball on first-and-goal at the two-yard line, they are going to score a touchdown five out of six times. In the first situation, Foster is getting the credit that primarily belongs to the passing game. In the second situation, Foster is getting the credit that primarily belongs to the defense.

DVOA does a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games. It uses a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.

We then expand upon that basic idea with a more complicated system of "success points." A successful play is worth one point, an unsuccessful play zero points. Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards, four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. There are fractional points in between. (For example, eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.63 "success points.") Losing four yards is -1 point, losing 12 yards is -1.8 points, an interception is -6 points, and a fumble is worth anywhere from -1.70 to -3.98 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense - no matter who actually recovers the fumble. Red zone plays are worth 20 percent more, and there is a bonus given for a touchdown.

(The system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden Game thanks to a number of improvements since we launched the site in 2003.)

Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit. Teams are always compared to one standard, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. However, when it comes to individual players, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends get compared to tight ends and wideouts to wideouts.

Imagine two running backs who each gain three yards. Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances where the average NFL running back gains only two yards (for example, third-and-1), it can be argued that Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play where, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back would be expected to gain five yards (for example, second-and-15), it can be argued that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position.

Once we have all our adjustments, we can find the difference between this player's success and the expected success of an average running back in the same situation (or between this defense and the average defense in the same situation, etc.). Add up every play by a certain team or player, divide by the total baseline for success in all those situations, and you get VOA, or Value Over Average.

Of course, the biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule. By adjusting each play based on the defense's average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; receiving plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, this is still called DVOA, for the sake of simplicity.)

The biggest advantage of DVOA is the ability to break teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in a variety of situations. In the aggregate, DVOA may not be quite as accurate as some of the other, similar "power ratings" formulas based on comparing drives rather than individual plays, but, unlike those other ratings, DVOA can be separated not only by player but also by down, or by week, or by distance needed for first down. This can give us a better idea of not just which team is better but why, and what a team has to do in order to improve itself in the future. You will find DVOA used by Football Outsiders in a lot of different ways. Because it takes every single play into account, it can be used to measure a player or a team's performance in any situation. All Minnesota third downs can be compared to how an average team does on third down. J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb can each be compared to how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with a lead, or in the second half of the game.

Since it compares each play only to plays with similar circumstances, it gives a more accurate picture of how much better a team really is compared to the league as a whole. The list of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more accurate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover is worse than an incomplete pass because it doesn't provide the opportunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth down.

One of the hardest parts of understanding a new statistic is grasping the idea of what numbers represent good performance or bad performance. We try to make that easy with DVOA, because it gets compared to average. Therefore, 0% always represents league-average. A positive DVOA represents that the offense is more likely to score, and a negative DVOA represents that the defense is more likely to stop them. This is why the best offenses have positive DVOA ratings (Indianapolis in 2005: +26.9%) and the best defenses have negative DVOA ratings (Chicago in 2005: -21.8%).

Ratings for teams and starting players generally follow that scale, with the best being around 30% and the worst being around -30% (opposite for defense). However, because the baseline represents four years of play (2002-2005) no year will average exactly 0%. Over the past four years, offensive levels have bounced back and forth, so in 2002 and 2004 the league average was positive, and in 2003 and 2005 it was negative.

Team DVOA totals combine offense and defense, and the team total is given by offense minus defense to take into account that better defenses are more negative. (Special teams performance is also added, as described below.)
Click to expand...
Link
 
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
And what is your prediction? This should be interesting considering you are wafer thin at RB my friend....
Click to expand...
post #6 aboveProjection: 220 carries 850 yards rushing 9 td's (I predict a few more longer runs this year before being ?'ed about his increase ypc)

75 catches 675 yards recieving 4 td's

1500 yards + and about 13 scores sounds right

I wouldn't cry if I got top 15 #'s out of him
Click to expand...
Do you expect him to be the starter for more than 10 games in 2008? He started 10 games last year and couldn't crack 600 yards. You are predicting a more than 50% increase in rushing yards than he has had in either of his two previous years...
 
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
And what is your prediction? This should be interesting considering you are wafer thin at RB my friend....
Click to expand...
post #6 aboveProjection: 220 carries 850 yards rushing 9 td's (I predict a few more longer runs this year before being ?'ed about his increase ypc)

75 catches 675 yards recieving 4 td's

1500 yards + and about 13 scores sounds right

I wouldn't cry if I got top 15 #'s out of him
Click to expand...
Do you expect him to be the starter for more than 10 games in 2008? He started 10 games last year and couldn't crack 600 yards. You are predicting a more than 50% increase in rushing yards than he has had in either of his two previous years...
Click to expand...
1) I expect longer runs like I stated above2) I expect him to play all 16 games (why would I predict an injury?)

3) He was playing on a torn PCL the last 4 games he played, lessened his stats abit. He should be recovered.

 
I think he would be better off as a slot WR.

160 carries 550yds 3tds 85 rec 550yds 4tds

 
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
And what is your prediction? This should be interesting considering you are wafer thin at RB my friend....
Click to expand...
post #6 aboveProjection: 220 carries 850 yards rushing 9 td's (I predict a few more longer runs this year before being ?'ed about his increase ypc)

75 catches 675 yards recieving 4 td's

1500 yards + and about 13 scores sounds right

I wouldn't cry if I got top 15 #'s out of him
Click to expand...
Do you expect him to be the starter for more than 10 games in 2008? He started 10 games last year and couldn't crack 600 yards. You are predicting a more than 50% increase in rushing yards than he has had in either of his two previous years...
Click to expand...
1) I expect longer runs like I stated above2) I expect him to play all 16 games (why would I predict an injury?)

3) He was playing on a torn PCL the last 4 games he played, lessened his stats abit. He should be recovered.
Click to expand...
:tinfoilhat: You won't predict an injury but you are predicting longer runs for a guy who's longest run after 2 years in the league is 22 yards?

 
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
TheFanatic said:
Ripleys said:
285 attempts, 1200 Rushing Yards

80 catches, 800 Receiving Yards

11 Combined TDs

I still believe in Reggie. He has the work ethic, physical skills, and the right offense/situation to be a star in the league.
Click to expand...
Wow, that would eclipse the rushing yards he has had in his first two seasons combined. You realize that he has never had more than 600 yards rushing? He's also only had 312 carries in his entire career.I'll go with:

185 carries for 720 yards rushing

90 receptions for 690 yards receiving

8 TD's
Click to expand...
Again not horrible #'s for a poster who is completely down on Bush
Click to expand...
And what is your prediction? This should be interesting considering you are wafer thin at RB my friend....
Click to expand...
post #6 aboveProjection: 220 carries 850 yards rushing 9 td's (I predict a few more longer runs this year before being ?'ed about his increase ypc)

75 catches 675 yards recieving 4 td's

1500 yards + and about 13 scores sounds right

I wouldn't cry if I got top 15 #'s out of him
Click to expand...
Do you expect him to be the starter for more than 10 games in 2008? He started 10 games last year and couldn't crack 600 yards. You are predicting a more than 50% increase in rushing yards than he has had in either of his two previous years...
Click to expand...
1) I expect longer runs like I stated above2) I expect him to play all 16 games (why would I predict an injury?)

3) He was playing on a torn PCL the last 4 games he played, lessened his stats abit. He should be recovered.
Click to expand...
:lmao: You won't predict an injury but you are predicting longer runs for a guy who's longest run after 2 years in the league is 22 yards?
Click to expand...
What do the 2 have to do with each other? I imagine your saying I'm a homer cause I'm looking at one side positive but the other side I'm not. I think that me not predicting an injury is very posibble due to him never missing a game in college or his first year due to injury and him trying to play through the pain last year when he had a very serious injury. I think projecting him to have longer runs is very possible....why you ask? Cause his longest is only 22 yards like you stated earlier. I certainly expect him to have longer runs than that this year and am shocked he hasn't done longer in the past. He has had passes that have gone for longer and in preseason has had longer runs...so obviously he has the capability to do it whenever.Let me put it this way. You are a true fan of MJD, right? Do you think he'll ever have over 167 carries in a season in his career even though he hasn't in his first 2 years? The obvious answer you would say is absolutely....once Fred is gone he'll be the man. My comeback to that is very similiar to yours above. Why would he increase when I can look at his past and it's never happened before. Of course this would be a ridiculious comeback because there have been changes that will change the players' outcome. Due to the reasons' I listed above I think Reggie's season this year can be different and while you might not agree you can't sayi it's not possible. If you wanted to start up a poll for everyone on the board asking them if they think Reggie will break a run more than 22 yards this year I'll be the first of many to vote "YES".

 
Blackjacks said:
What do the 2 have to do with each other? I imagine your saying I'm a homer cause I'm looking at one side positive but the other side I'm not. I think that me not predicting an injury is very posibble due to him never missing a game in college or his first year due to injury and him trying to play through the pain last year when he had a very serious injury. I think projecting him to have longer runs is very possible....why you ask? Cause his longest is only 22 yards like you stated earlier. I certainly expect him to have longer runs than that this year and am shocked he hasn't done longer in the past. He has had passes that have gone for longer and in preseason has had longer runs...so obviously he has the capability to do it whenever.
Click to expand...
What I was pointing out that most people won't predict an injury on a guy that is not injury prone because it is just impossible to do. But the flip side of that is to predict some longer runs on a guy that has not shown a propensity for longer runs in the NFL. I get not predicting an injury for the guy because he is not injury prone, but predicting longer runs when he is not long-run-prone seems to be the exact same thing except in the positive direction. The homer direction if you will. BTW, Reggie not missing any time in college is part of the reason (indirectly) why I have been down on the guy since he was drafted. He wasn't touched in college. Between that amazing line that opened gaping holes and his patented highlight reel moves, he didn't take a lot of big hits. In the NFL it's a different story. He's gotta make something out of nothing in that split second a hole is open. He has to take a hit, shrug it off, keep his footing and keep going. He's gotta be able to shake off an arm tackle from a guy that is 320 pounds and can free lift a Kia Spectra. These are not things he had to do in college. He can't just spin and outrun everyone anymore. The guy has incredible talent, but I think he was surrounded by such amazing talent in College that he didn't have to scrap, claw and fight for yards the way backs need to in the NFL to be successful. Maybe he will learn to do that. Learn to know when the hole is going to close and be through it a fraction of second before it does. And learn to drop his head and deliver a hit on a LB rather than try to deke around the guy (And the first time he does that, he will get more room to run as guys will be more cautious in tackling him). He needs to put his head down and run over somebody at some time. Maybe not a LB, but he can drill some secondary guy.
 
TheFanatic said:
Blackjacks said:
What do the 2 have to do with each other? I imagine your saying I'm a homer cause I'm looking at one side positive but the other side I'm not. I think that me not predicting an injury is very posibble due to him never missing a game in college or his first year due to injury and him trying to play through the pain last year when he had a very serious injury. I think projecting him to have longer runs is very possible....why you ask? Cause his longest is only 22 yards like you stated earlier. I certainly expect him to have longer runs than that this year and am shocked he hasn't done longer in the past. He has had passes that have gone for longer and in preseason has had longer runs...so obviously he has the capability to do it whenever.
Click to expand...
What I was pointing out that most people won't predict an injury on a guy that is not injury prone because it is just impossible to do. But the flip side of that is to predict some longer runs on a guy that has not shown a propensity for longer runs in the NFL. I get not predicting an injury for the guy because he is not injury prone, but predicting longer runs when he is not long-run-prone seems to be the exact same thing except in the positive direction. The homer direction if you will.

BTW, Reggie not missing any time in college is part of the reason (indirectly) why I have been down on the guy since he was drafted. He wasn't touched in college. Between that amazing line that opened gaping holes and his patented highlight reel moves, he didn't take a lot of big hits. In the NFL it's a different story. He's gotta make something out of nothing in that split second a hole is open. He has to take a hit, shrug it off, keep his footing and keep going. He's gotta be able to shake off an arm tackle from a guy that is 320 pounds and can free lift a Kia Spectra. These are not things he had to do in college. He can't just spin and outrun everyone anymore.

The guy has incredible talent, but I think he was surrounded by such amazing talent in College that he didn't have to scrap, claw and fight for yards the way backs need to in the NFL to be successful. Maybe he will learn to do that. Learn to know when the hole is going to close and be through it a fraction of second before it does. And learn to drop his head and deliver a hit on a LB rather than try to deke around the guy (And the first time he does that, he will get more room to run as guys will be more cautious in tackling him). He needs to put his head down and run over somebody at some time. Maybe not a LB, but he can drill some secondary guy.
Click to expand...
I agree with alot you say here except the highlighted part. He might not have broke alot longs runs on handoffs but he has on swing passes. What's really the difference. The fact is when he gets going he can take it to teh house. Due to lesser talent around him and bad play calling to go along with an injury it didn't come together last year but that isn't saying he isn't capable of doing it.
 
Blackjacks said:
He might not have broke alot longs runs on handoffs but he has on swing passes.
Click to expand...
With a career average of under 6 yards per ctach he hasn't broken too many long ones in the passing game, either. That one long play against the Bears in the playoffs is the only big play I can remember (admittedly not having seen a ton of the Saints). Not saying he can't -- he certainly did at USC, but thed fact remains that he just hasn't been a big play threat in the NFL, and has really been pretty crappy overall in his first two years.
 
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