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I don't think it's unreasonable. Pittman's two biggest strengths are his blocking and receiving, and Shanahan has mentioned wanting to limit Young in the past. Now we'll have to wait 'til TCs to see how everything shakes out, but if someone were to guess that Pittman would steal receptions, that seems like an easily defensible position.
I am inclined to think Alex Smith gets the real shot in SF, but I am not convinced he will hold onto the job. JT O'Sullivan knows the Martz offense so he is intriguing. Shaun Hill might be the best athlete, but so far has been slow to learn the plays. I am starting to think he might end up as the #3 actually. This is definitely one of the harder situations to project this year.
Yes I do. I am not sold on Selvin Young being a full-time back. And the easiest way to lessen his load is to have Pittman in on third downs. He is a skilled receiver and should do well in that role for the Broncos.
This is a great suggestion, and something I've hoped to see for a couple of years. With RBs it's probably more complicated, because a guy can play in a limited/back-up capactity in most games, and be featured in just a handful due to a starters injury. But if that kind of split is figured into projections, it would be helpful to know.
A PM by a staff member who read my post helped me remember that games played were a part of the projections section included in the Draft Dominator last year. I haven't looked this year, but I'll bet they are there again and I can get them (I don't have time to look right now, as I'm headed out). It'd still be helpful if the column were presented on the main site projections pages.
I'm right there with you on this. Bulger is looking like a very large, very low-hanging pineapple this year if this line of thinking continues.
At a quick glance, it looks like each individual week has a weigh in the projections section. Not exactly what I was talking about since it's behind the scenes, but at least it can be found if you look for it.
The Projections Dominator has a column that shows the predicted number of games played for each player.
FBG's projections are always conservative.
My plan is to write an article on building good projections, but here is the quick take on it.- I list all of the people on the depth charts of a team that I think will contribute. - I look at the last three year's data at the team level to get a feel for what a team has done in the past (rush vs pass, TD success, etc)- I ask myself what has changed from last year to this year (new coaches, new players, new schemes, schedule strength, etc)- I predict the macro categories for the team (rush/pass attempts, rush TDs, pass TDs, int, etc)- I then look at three year data for the individual players. I try and figure out the most likely yards per carry and the approx number of receptions for each player).- I continually massage it until the team numbers balance out, ie passing yardage = receiving yardage, etc- Once I have done all 32 teams, I check overall numbers against historical league norms in attempts, yards per attempt, TDs, etc. I tweak accordingly to fit my overall projections to these league numbers from the past.
2007 passing numbers were higher than prior years by a considerable margin. Although the trend to more passing yards and TDs is generally up, I think last year was a bit of an anomaly. Teams combined for 10,425 completions, 17,045 attempts and 720 TDs in 2007. Contrast that to 2006 which saw 9,796 completions, 16,389 attempts and 648 TDs and 2005 which saw 9,790 completions, 16,464 attempts and 644 TDs. My projections are predicting 9,938 completions, 16,571 attempts and 688 TDs.
I think Marshall definitely has some uncertainty. As does a whole new receiving corps (Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert, Samie Parker). I also am forecasting Denver has a more balanced attack this year. Last year they threw the ball 515 times while rushing only 429 times. That is definitely not Shanahan's normal approach. My projections are for 497 pass attempts and 458 rush attempts.
Bulger is an interesting case. He has missed significant time in 2 of the last 3 seasons. He has skills, but is a sitting duck behind a pretty bad offensive line. I have predicted him to play 13 games. If he plays all 16, I agree that he represents solid value this year.3) I'm glad to see so many people so down on Bulger this season. It's going to make it easy pickings at QB
Last year the Jets had minimal options at RB. This year they have Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Musa Smith and Jesse Chatman. I think all of these players will get touches this year as the Jets try to limit Thomas Jones to 190-220 carries. Jones really wore down as the season went along and was quite ineffective in the last 8 games (3.5 yards per carry and just 1 rushing TD). The team has addressed improving the OL and these additions at RB seem to indicate they will rotate backs more keeping Jones fresher. At age 30 though, Jones may be on the downside of his career.
In games 1-8, AP averaged 6.6 ypc. In games 9-16, he averaged 3.8 ypc. As teams figured out that he was the sole threat on this offense, they loaded up the box and dared Tarvaris Jackson to beat them. Although the Vikings likely improved their passing game with the addition of Berrian, I think that will be the blueprint again in 2008 (Stop AP at all costs). I know AP is skilled, but it's still hard to average over 5.0 ypc when defenses are trying their hardest to stop you.
Fred Taylor is 32 years old. Most backs have declined a lot by then (and are usually out of the game). Last year Fred wowed us all with 5.4 ypc. Since his career average is 4.7 ypc, I think expecting 5.0+ ypc again (at his age) is unrealistic. And yes I do think Jones-Drew will slowly get more and more carries in this offense (either by injury or because of his effectiveness).
Detroit's defense is awful. Their running game will likely feature an unproven rookie (Kevin Smith). So this really comes down to expectations. I fully expect that Detroit will be forced to throw the ball a lot in 2008 as they play from behind and don't have other options. Less than under Martz, but still a lot of pass attempts. With Martz gone, I don't expect to see the multiple formations as much. This will decrease Furrey's and McDonald's targets. This means Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams will get the majority of looks (provided they stay healthy).
He has to earn the backup role first. I need to research this a little closer, but if he indeed wins the backup role then I will include numbers for him.
We actually project games played. Let me talk to Doug Drinen to get this column displayed.
I am in agreement. I have not adjusted for the latest news yet. I think there is a strong chance he gets traded or cut.
Given that these are your projections, to me that implies you are projecting what will happen... which means that not projecting numbers for Hightower means you are projecting that he won't win the backup role, and thus won't have any numbers.I see that you will research this more, implying you may change your mind, but I wanted to confirm that I have this right... as of today, you are projecting that Hightower will not have a backup role and thus will not accumulate more than negligible numbers. Correct?
I think he is currently behind Shipp and Arrington on the depth chart. Now obviously it would not take much to beat out those people, but until I see the team announce that he is the backup I am leary of any 5th round draft selection vaulting up the depth charts.
How many qb's have reached the 40 td mark to be able to fall below the 30 mark? How much did Stallworth really contribute? And while preseason SOS isn't always accurate, it appears NE has an EASIER schedule against the pass than they did last year. With Moss, Welker and incredible offensive line I don't know why NE would change things up. Yes, teams are going to plan to stop the aerial assault but they drew up the same plans last year and couldn't stop them.
This must have been an oversight.
