FBG Projections - Smith: please provide feedback (1 Viewer)

The first cut of projections are always interesting and I am mirroring the other members of the staff (Jason, Maurice, Bob) who posted a thread for feedback.

Smith's projections

Would love to hear your thoughts.

BTW: Several of these projections have been tweaked already as of June 5th and the incorrect player IDs have been addressed.

The next pass of projections next week will see some changes for

RB Selvin Young

RB Michael Pittman

RB Dominic Rhodes

RB Leonard Weaver

RB Chris Perry

RB DeShaun Foster

RB Lorenzo Booker

WR Andre Davis

WR Dennis Northcutt

WR Steve Smith, NYG

WR Matt Jones

Not bad, Chris.

Nothing really jumps out at me with your RBs.

However, in time, we may see a development with Marshawn Lynch, depending on the outcome of that whole hit-and-run thing.

Of course, we all know that.

One thing I did take note of, you have Kenny Watson as the highest ranked Bengal. Interesting.

I wouldn't argue with that. I kind of see it the same way, actually.

Andy Herron said:

Not bad, Chris.Nothing really jumps out at me with your RBs.However, in time, we may see a development with Marshawn Lynch, depending on the outcome of that whole hit-and-run thing.Of course, we all know that.One thing I did take note of, you have Kenny Watson as the highest ranked Bengal. Interesting.I wouldn't argue with that. I kind of see it the same way, actually.

Click to expand...

Thanks Andy.Definitely watching the Lynch story.

You've missed DeSean Jackson in Philly. I'm checking him in all the projections because I happen to think two to three balls a game (minimum) should be expected, and no one so far seems to see it that way.

Chaos Commish said:

You've missed DeSean Jackson in Philly. I'm checking him in all the projections because I happen to think two to three balls a game (minimum) should be expected, and no one so far seems to see it that way.

Click to expand...

Good catch. He is in the next projections coming out (already sent in)I have him with 16 receptions for 196 yards and a score.

I've asked this of all the other staffers posting: "Tell us about your general philosophy and process for creating your projections". I think we can learn a lot by hearing about your journey as much as seeing the photos from the destination.

Thanks for offering to do this. These threads are awesome.

gheemony said:

I've asked this of all the other staffers posting: "Tell us about your general philosophy and process for creating your projections". I think we can learn a lot by hearing about your journey as much as seeing the photos from the destination.Thanks for offering to do this. These threads are awesome.

Click to expand...

I break down each team's performance from a season ago, look at the roster changes, coaching changes, 2008 schedule and try to determine whether the stats this season are likely to increase, decrease or stay the course.After that, I will begin building each team's statistics based on those thoughts. Ultimately I always try and look ahead to this season instead of backwards to 2007 and beyond. Every season writes its own story and the challenge is attempting to read the clues to determine what path each team will travel.I also do not attempt to factor in injuries unless a player is extremely injury prone. The challenge with projecting injuries is it is impossible to determine whether a player will miss 1, 2, 4 or 14 games throughout the season.I simply project the starters to play all 16 games in most cases and then tweak my cheat sheets to account for injury concerns. There are exceptions to that rule but very few.

BusterTBronco said:

When are the Chris Smith projections coming out? I have always thought that he did a nice job.

Click to expand...

I always like hearing his thoughts on offensive lines. Really important thing that gets overlooked sometimes.

FWIW (which isn't much), I think you have Steven Jackson way too high. You're certainly not alone in that belief based on his ADP from several mock draft sites, but the huge questions regarding his ability to stay healthy and the overall status of the St. Louis offense would prevent me from projecting stats like that for any RB in his situation.

KCC said:

FWIW (which isn't much), I think you have Steven Jackson way too high. You're certainly not alone in that belief based on his ADP from several mock draft sites, but the huge questions regarding his ability to stay healthy and the overall status of the St. Louis offense would prevent me from projecting stats like that for any RB in his situation. :(

Click to expand...

I think these are 2008 projections.....

Darker Knight said:

KCC said:

FWIW (which isn't much), I think you have Steven Jackson way too high. You're certainly not alone in that belief based on his ADP from several mock draft sites, but the huge questions regarding his ability to stay healthy and the overall status of the St. Louis offense would prevent me from projecting stats like that for any RB in his situation.

Click to expand...

I think these are 2008 projections.....

Click to expand...

Haha... I clicked on the link at first without reading and saw Lawrence Maroney 15 and Chris Johnson 31 and thought he was out of his mind.But then I looked at the original post date.