Player Spotlight: Jay Cutler (1 Viewer)

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jay Cutler, QB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Jay Cutler Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

There are some definite question marks here. What is the health of Marshal's arm, or Scheffler's foot? How will diabetes affect him, can he keep it under control and be an even better QB? There is now a rookie LT in Ryan Clady who some say is the second best tackle in the draft. Will he be effective as a rookie? Also, there has been an interesting addition to the offense with D-Jax.

All in all, we have a very interesting picture. He lost his #1 receiver in Walker earlier on to his knee. It turned out he was playing last season with undiagnosed diabetes. Yet, in only his first season starting, he put up 3500 yds with 20 tds/14 ints.

I'm going to be optimistic and predict him to grow even further this season. The Denver offense is his show now.

3800 yds, 28 TDs, 15 ints

He'll be a QB worth getting this season.

I agree there are questions but I'm really optimistic pending the resolution of Marshall and Scheffler's injuries. I'm going on the assumption that both will be fine for the season. If that's the case, I don't see how Cutler isn't one of the more compelling young fantasy prospects. I don't think the Broncos defense or RB stable will allow them to be too run heavy and Cutler played well last year. When you consider that he played that well while losing 32 pounds in the midst of undiagnosed Diabetes; it's almost astounding.

Those worried about Cutler's Diabetes shouldn't be. It's a completely manageable disease now that it's been diagnosed and he's already back to his peak playing weight. He'll be fine.

I agree with the high expectations if everything goes right, but their are to many question marks right now to get out of control.

284 465 3464 22 16

38 152 1

Jay Cutler is a good player in a bad situation. The O-Line is weak. The running game is weak. Both of his best receivers are nursing injuries. He's a good quarterback but I don't really see myself reaching to draft him this season.

He's one guy that I'll certainly be looking to grab after all the big names are off the board. He's got all the tools (phyiscal/mental), his weapons are young and starting to develop, they've started to address their aging line and they've added some depth to the WR corp this year. I'd look for something like 3850-24-15 and maybe run another 1-2 in.

Dynasty wise grab him while you can (if you still can).

Just adding up passing attempts and rushing attempts, the Denver offense only totaled 944 last season and 942 in 2006. They averaged 1030 in the other 11 seasons of Shanahan's tenure in Denver. I'm not sure what league wide trends may have affected that number or how it compares to other teams. But that is a huge drop. So, if there is reason to believe that number will rebound closer to what it had been for previous Denver teams, there is reason to believe that passing attempts could hold or increase, even while rushing attempts increase.

This is important, because last season Denver had the fewest rushing attempts in Shanahan's tenure with Denver. In the previous 12 seasons under Shanahan, they averaged 503 rushing attempts per season, but they had only 429 last year. Granted, it is probably unfair to compare the years with Terrell Davis and Portis, so let's just look at the seasons since Portis left.

In 2004, Droughns, Griffin, and Tatum Bell shared the load, and Denver had 534 rushing attempts.

In 2005, 32 year old Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, and Dayne shared the load, and Denver had 542 rushing attempts.

In 2006, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell were the primary ball carriers, and Denver had 488 rushing attempts.

Last year, Denver had only 429 rushing attempts. Quite an outlier. This year, the RB stable is not noticeably better, with Henry gone and Pittman and Torain added. But I still fully expect a significant increase in rushing attempts. I mean, isn't the current stable better than the combination of Tatum Bell and Mike Bell were in 2006?

Cutler attempted only 467 passes last year, and finished as QB11, with Ramsey throwing 48 passes. Will Cutler get every attempt this year? How much will the rushing attempts go up? Will total plays also go up? All of these things will bear on how many attempts Cutler gets. I think he'll need 500 attempts to get close to the higher end projections people have for him.

ETA: In the past 10 years, a Denver QB has had 500+ passing attempts only 1 time - Plummer had 521 in 2004... but Denver also had 534 rushing attempts, so to get similar results would imply a need for Cutler to get all the passing attempts and the number of offensive plays to go up more than 10%. The second highest total over that 10 year period is Cutler's 467 last season.

Cutler's completion percentage (63%) and ypa (7.5) were already high last season. I don't see him doing more with the same number of attempts, other than possibly adding a bit to his passing TDs.

As for other factors, Cutler had a difficult schedule last season, so that bodes well, but he also has a few new receivers to work with and the ongoing injury issues with Marshall and Scheffler. For the most part, these probably offset. I'm really not sure how to account for the diabetes issue. Intuitively, it's a positive, but I'm not sure to what extent his numbers should be adjusted for it.

All in all, I expect a similar season to last year. I'll project:

292/475 (61.5%), 3562 passing yards (7.5 ypa), 23 passing TDs, 16 interceptions

45/180/0 rushing

This assumes he plays 16 games.

Just Win Baby said:

Just adding up passing attempts and rushing attempts, the Denver offense only totaled 944 last season and 942 in 2006. They averaged 1030 in the other 11 seasons of Shanahan's tenure in Denver. I'm not sure what league wide trends may have affected that number or how it compares to other teams. But that is a huge drop. So, if there is reason to believe that number will rebound closer to what it had been for previous Denver teams, there is reason to believe that passing attempts could hold or increase, even while rushing attempts increase.

Click to expand...

I think you can blame the Broncos defense for a lot of that actually. They were horrible against the run last season ranking 30th in yards per game and 31st in yards per rush. That led to the Broncos ranking 24th in the NFL in time of possession.Offensively the Broncos weren't that bad. They had the 11th most yards per game and were in the top half of the NFL in passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt as well as top-10 in rushing yards per game and yards per rush attempt. If the defense could step up and be just bad against the run and not horrific the Broncos offense could be that much more effective.Now that I've looked into it. Jay Cutler might not be such a bad pick this season. I still won't reach but the potential for greatness can't be denied.

Cutler threw the ball 467 times last season, if you look at the top QB's in the league, they're throwing the ball more than he is. I believe the coaching staff has more trust now in Cutler than they did to start the season off last year and we'll be seeing Cutler throw the ball up around 500 times this season. The running game doesn't look to be improved in Denver and the defense is patchy to say the least.

3700 yards passing, 22 td's and 17 Int's with 100 yards rushing and 1 td

Jason Wood said:

I agree there are questions but I'm really optimistic pending the resolution of Marshall and Scheffler's injuries. I'm going on the assumption that both will be fine for the season. If that's the case, I don't see how Cutler isn't one of the more compelling young fantasy prospects. I don't think the Broncos defense or RB stable will allow them to be too run heavy and Cutler played well last year. When you consider that he played that well while losing 32 pounds in the midst of undiagnosed Diabetes; it's almost astounding.

Those worried about Cutler's Diabetes shouldn't be. It's a completely manageable disease now that it's been diagnosed and he's already back to his peak playing weight. He'll be fine.

Click to expand...

This is the whole key right here.He's got his "zing" back in his throws, and is back at full strength. Hate to make the Bronco-to-Bronco comparison, but his arm really is similar to Elway.

He'll only continue to grow and progress no matter the targets he has on the field. He's only scratched the surface of what he can bring.

I had him pegged as the best QB of his draft class, and he'll only continue to prove me right. It's really not even close at this point.

In looking at my watch, he's going to become a star any minute now.

Andy Herron said:

Jason Wood said:

I agree there are questions but I'm really optimistic pending the resolution of Marshall and Scheffler's injuries. I'm going on the assumption that both will be fine for the season. If that's the case, I don't see how Cutler isn't one of the more compelling young fantasy prospects. I don't think the Broncos defense or RB stable will allow them to be too run heavy and Cutler played well last year. When you consider that he played that well while losing 32 pounds in the midst of undiagnosed Diabetes; it's almost astounding.

Those worried about Cutler's Diabetes shouldn't be. It's a completely manageable disease now that it's been diagnosed and he's already back to his peak playing weight. He'll be fine.

Click to expand...

This is the whole key right here.He's got his "zing" back in his throws, and is back at full strength. Hate to make the Bronco-to-Bronco comparison, but his arm really is similar to Elway.

He'll only continue to grow and progress no matter the targets he has on the field. He's only scratched the surface of what he can bring.

I had him pegged as the best QB of his draft class, and he'll only continue to prove me right. It's really not even close at this point.

In looking at my watch, he's going to become a star any minute now.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you expecting him to play better? Complete more than 63% of his passes? Throw for higher than 7.5 ypa? He played very well last season, with the only minor exception being that his TD percentage wasn't particularly high. IMO the issue here is opportunity - how many attempts will he get?

Just Win Baby said:

Andy Herron said:

Jason Wood said:

I agree there are questions but I'm really optimistic pending the resolution of Marshall and Scheffler's injuries. I'm going on the assumption that both will be fine for the season. If that's the case, I don't see how Cutler isn't one of the more compelling young fantasy prospects. I don't think the Broncos defense or RB stable will allow them to be too run heavy and Cutler played well last year. When you consider that he played that well while losing 32 pounds in the midst of undiagnosed Diabetes; it's almost astounding.

Those worried about Cutler's Diabetes shouldn't be. It's a completely manageable disease now that it's been diagnosed and he's already back to his peak playing weight. He'll be fine.

Click to expand...

This is the whole key right here.He's got his "zing" back in his throws, and is back at full strength. Hate to make the Bronco-to-Bronco comparison, but his arm really is similar to Elway.

He'll only continue to grow and progress no matter the targets he has on the field. He's only scratched the surface of what he can bring.

I had him pegged as the best QB of his draft class, and he'll only continue to prove me right. It's really not even close at this point.

In looking at my watch, he's going to become a star any minute now.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you expecting him to play better? Complete more than 63% of his passes? Throw for higher than 7.5 ypa? He played very well last season, with the only minor exception being that his TD percentage wasn't particularly high. IMO the issue here is opportunity - how many attempts will he get?

Click to expand...

He will most certainly play better. He was feeling so weak and light-headed from October on and couldn't figure out why? Nor could the Broncos. They could see that his on-field performance was faltering and he was losing weight. Confidence had to come into question. Now that he has been diagnosed, all is understood and they will no doubt be far more comfortable in putting the ball and games themselves in his hands once again. He knows the offense inside and out at this point, and now being fully healthy again all he has to do is perform. I think we've seen enough that he's fully capable of that. At this point, he's the focus and center of this offense, not the running game.

Andy Herron said:

Just Win Baby said:

Andy Herron said:

Jason Wood said:

I agree there are questions but I'm really optimistic pending the resolution of Marshall and Scheffler's injuries. I'm going on the assumption that both will be fine for the season. If that's the case, I don't see how Cutler isn't one of the more compelling young fantasy prospects. I don't think the Broncos defense or RB stable will allow them to be too run heavy and Cutler played well last year. When you consider that he played that well while losing 32 pounds in the midst of undiagnosed Diabetes; it's almost astounding.

Those worried about Cutler's Diabetes shouldn't be. It's a completely manageable disease now that it's been diagnosed and he's already back to his peak playing weight. He'll be fine.

Click to expand...

This is the whole key right here.He's got his "zing" back in his throws, and is back at full strength. Hate to make the Bronco-to-Bronco comparison, but his arm really is similar to Elway.

He'll only continue to grow and progress no matter the targets he has on the field. He's only scratched the surface of what he can bring.

I had him pegged as the best QB of his draft class, and he'll only continue to prove me right. It's really not even close at this point.

In looking at my watch, he's going to become a star any minute now.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you expecting him to play better? Complete more than 63% of his passes? Throw for higher than 7.5 ypa? He played very well last season, with the only minor exception being that his TD percentage wasn't particularly high. IMO the issue here is opportunity - how many attempts will he get?

Click to expand...

He will most certainly play better. He was feeling so weak and light-headed from October on and couldn't figure out why? Nor could the Broncos. They could see that his on-field performance was faltering and he was losing weight. Confidence had to come into question. Now that he has been diagnosed, all is understood and they will no doubt be far more comfortable in putting the ball and games themselves in his hands once again. He knows the offense inside and out at this point, and now being fully healthy again all he has to do is perform. I think we've seen enough that he's fully capable of that. At this point, he's the focus and center of this offense, not the running game.

Click to expand...

Actually, he got better each month of the season until December, and September was his worst month:September 75/116 (64.7%), 926 passing yards (7.98 ypa), 4 TDs, 5 interceptions, 5 sacks, 82.8 QB rating

October 66/99 (66.7%), 744 passing yards (7.52 ypa), 4 TDs, 3 interceptions, 5 sacks, 89.8 QB rating

November 53/85 (62.4%), 714 passing yards (8.40 ypa), 5 TDs, 2 interceptions, 6 sacks, 98.8 QB rating

December 103/167 (61.7%), 1113 passing yards (6.67 ypa), 7 TDs, 4 interceptions, 11 sacks, 85.2 QB rating

Furthermore, look at the sacks. Looks like his offensive line might deserve a fair amount of the blame for his decline in December.

Intuitively, he should be better with his Diabetes diagnosed. But I think some people are making far too much of how that will translate into numbers on the field, and, thus, fantasy points.

Just Win Baby said:

Andy Herron said:

Just Win Baby said:

Andy Herron said:

Jason Wood said:

I agree there are questions but I'm really optimistic pending the resolution of Marshall and Scheffler's injuries. I'm going on the assumption that both will be fine for the season. If that's the case, I don't see how Cutler isn't one of the more compelling young fantasy prospects. I don't think the Broncos defense or RB stable will allow them to be too run heavy and Cutler played well last year. When you consider that he played that well while losing 32 pounds in the midst of undiagnosed Diabetes; it's almost astounding.

Those worried about Cutler's Diabetes shouldn't be. It's a completely manageable disease now that it's been diagnosed and he's already back to his peak playing weight. He'll be fine.

Click to expand...

This is the whole key right here.He's got his "zing" back in his throws, and is back at full strength. Hate to make the Bronco-to-Bronco comparison, but his arm really is similar to Elway.

He'll only continue to grow and progress no matter the targets he has on the field. He's only scratched the surface of what he can bring.

I had him pegged as the best QB of his draft class, and he'll only continue to prove me right. It's really not even close at this point.

In looking at my watch, he's going to become a star any minute now.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you expecting him to play better? Complete more than 63% of his passes? Throw for higher than 7.5 ypa? He played very well last season, with the only minor exception being that his TD percentage wasn't particularly high. IMO the issue here is opportunity - how many attempts will he get?

Click to expand...

He will most certainly play better. He was feeling so weak and light-headed from October on and couldn't figure out why? Nor could the Broncos. They could see that his on-field performance was faltering and he was losing weight. Confidence had to come into question. Now that he has been diagnosed, all is understood and they will no doubt be far more comfortable in putting the ball and games themselves in his hands once again. He knows the offense inside and out at this point, and now being fully healthy again all he has to do is perform. I think we've seen enough that he's fully capable of that. At this point, he's the focus and center of this offense, not the running game.

Click to expand...

Actually, he got better each month of the season until December, and September was his worst month:September 75/116 (64.7%), 926 passing yards (7.98 ypa), 4 TDs, 5 interceptions, 5 sacks, 82.8 QB rating

October 66/99 (66.7%), 744 passing yards (7.52 ypa), 4 TDs, 3 interceptions, 5 sacks, 89.8 QB rating

November 53/85 (62.4%), 714 passing yards (8.40 ypa), 5 TDs, 2 interceptions, 6 sacks, 98.8 QB rating

December 103/167 (61.7%), 1113 passing yards (6.67 ypa), 7 TDs, 4 interceptions, 11 sacks, 85.2 QB rating

Furthermore, look at the sacks. Looks like his offensive line might deserve a fair amount of the blame for his decline in December.

Intuitively, he should be better with his Diabetes diagnosed. But I think some people are making far too much of how that will translate into numbers on the field, and, thus, fantasy points.

Click to expand...

Oh, I understand what you are saying, and I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you.As previously stated by Jason, it's astonishing he was able to maintain his numbers last year til the very end.

I know Cutler said recently that when he would watch game film, he was baffled by instances where he knew he could make throws that he wasn't. He couldn't figure out why and it was troubling him greatly.

His numbers may or may not improve, but I can't help but think he'll be more efficient. It may not show up in his completion percentage (those are already pretty respectable numbers), but maybe in some other areas. The number of sacks should also go down, which should present more opportunity.

The Broncos offense did not have much stability last year. Marshall was the only WR to play all 16 games. There was a continuous rotation at RB. The offensive line had a lot of issues. Cutler was obviously having health issues and they still managed to pass for 3759 yards and 21 TDs. I see them building on that some (assuming that Marshall is healthy for the start of the season). Cutler could take a step forward and he has already played very well.

Cutler 320 completions on 510 attempts (63.0%) for 3,800 yards 7.45 ypa with 24 TDs and 14 ints and 220 rush yards and 2 TDs

Banger said:

Dynasty wise grab him while you can (if you still can).

Click to expand...

I realize that this might not be the right forum and it might bring a totally different conversation, but is he someone you give up manning for at this point? i've been offered cutler along with braylon edwards for manning and reggie brown... it's definitely something that i have thought about and i think cutler is the real deal. I drafted him in this league that i am in and traded him away. I see cutler having a great year this year. Much better than last year. he really started to click at the end of last season for sure. I see him with around 3500/26/15 and maybe 145/1 on the ground. There's my player projections, but how about a short answer to the trade question...

The man on the moon said:

Banger said:

Dynasty wise grab him while you can (if you still can).

Click to expand...

I realize that this might not be the right forum and it might bring a totally different conversation, but is he someone you give up manning for at this point? i've been offered cutler along with braylon edwards for manning and reggie brown... it's definitely something that i have thought about and i think cutler is the real deal. I drafted him in this league that i am in and traded him away. I see cutler having a great year this year. Much better than last year. he really started to click at the end of last season for sure. I see him with around 3500/26/15 and maybe 145/1 on the ground. There's my player projections, but how about a short answer to the trade question...

Click to expand...

I'd be all over that. Take it! Now!

Cutler is the real deal, grab him in dynasty. Here is a set of similarity scores I wrote about at the PFR blog. When the names Montana, Brady, Aikman, Favre, Roethlisberger, Brees, Peyton and Jim Kelly are in your comp list at a similar age, the odds are we have a star on our hands. I expect a monster year sometime in the near future, I just don't know if it will be 2008. I still like him higher than his current ADP. The comp% might go down a bit due to regression, but I think the attempts go up, I see no reason that the YPA should go down, and I think he bumps up the td% in 2008.

I'll go with 320 for 520, 3950 pass yards, 28 pass td's, 15 int's, and another 100/1 on the ground.

Cutler had the misfortune of missing the Lions game, which means he probably should have had a another 300/3 last season.

He actually had the hardest schedule in the league last season. When adjusting for SOS, Cutler was the 11th best QB on a per game basis last year. That's obviously borderline QB1 material.

The one problem for Cutler -- he's projected to have the toughest schedule in the league this year. So it might not be wise to "bump his '07 numbers up" because he had the hardest schedule in the league last year.

JKL said:

Cutler is the real deal, grab him in dynasty. Here is a set of similarity scores I wrote about at the PFR blog. When the names Montana, Brady, Aikman, Favre, Roethlisberger, Brees, Peyton and Jim Kelly are in your comp list at a similar age, the odds are we have a star on our hands. I expect a monster year sometime in the near future, I just don't know if it will be 2008. I still like him higher than his current ADP. The comp% might go down a bit due to regression, but I think the attempts go up, I see no reason that the YPA should go down, and I think he bumps up the td% in 2008.

I'll go with 320 for 520, 3950 pass yards, 28 pass td's, 15 int's, and another 100/1 on the ground.

Click to expand...

Agree totally. He'll be a star QB in this league for a long time it's just a question of when fantasy wise he'll reach the next level. I kind of think of liken him to Brady (don't go nuts everyone), very smart, good leader, coach loves everything about him, hard worker, great mechanics, great physical attributes, good pocket presense, and a good coach that isn't afraid to change his game to suit his talent. Brady started off slow fantasy wise too until they surrounded him with some offensive talent.

The man on the moon said:

Banger said:

Dynasty wise grab him while you can (if you still can).

Click to expand...

I realize that this might not be the right forum and it might bring a totally different conversation, but is he someone you give up manning for at this point? i've been offered cutler along with braylon edwards for manning and reggie brown... it's definitely something that i have thought about and i think cutler is the real deal. I drafted him in this league that i am in and traded him away. I see cutler having a great year this year. Much better than last year. he really started to click at the end of last season for sure. I see him with around 3500/26/15 and maybe 145/1 on the ground. There's my player projections, but how about a short answer to the trade question...

Click to expand...

I'd have to really consider it if I was weak at wr.

JKL said:

Cutler is the real deal, grab him in dynasty. Here is a set of similarity scores I wrote about at the PFR blog. When the names Montana, Brady, Aikman, Favre, Roethlisberger, Brees, Peyton and Jim Kelly are in your comp list at a similar age, the odds are we have a star on our hands. I expect a monster year sometime in the near future, I just don't know if it will be 2008. I still like him higher than his current ADP. The comp% might go down a bit due to regression, but I think the attempts go up, I see no reason that the YPA should go down, and I think he bumps up the td% in 2008.

I'll go with 320 for 520, 3950 pass yards, 28 pass td's, 15 int's, and another 100/1 on the ground.

Click to expand...

No offense, but I just don't find this as impressive as some might, at least for fantasy purposes. First of all, you explain your formula, but you don't explain why it is valid (i.e., why subtract 1 point per passing attempt, etc.). Secondly, let's look at the top 5 similarity scores for Cutler:1. Brady 2001 - QB19

2. Carr 2004 - QB14

3. Montana 1981 - QB8

4. Aikman 1992 - QB4

5. Losman 2006 - QB13

Yes, Brady, Montana, and Aikman are HOF caliber QBs. But 3 of these guys were not startable as fantasy QBs in their cited comparable season. And Aikman was surrounded by elite teammates, on both offense and defense, which Cutler is not. Just the fact that Brady and Carr are right beside each other in the ranking shows that it is not useful as a predictor of greatness.

Furthermore, look at Derek Anderson's top 5:

1. Marino 1985 - QB2

2. Bledsoe 1997 - QB5

3. Cunningham 1987 - QB2

4. Brooks 2001 - QB8

5. Everett 1988 - QB2

Is anyone using this to suggest Anderson will be a great QB? Most seem to be down on Anderson. On top of that, I really wouldn't consider Anderson to be particularly similar as a QB to Cunningham or Brooks or Vick (#7 on his similarity list), yet this similarity score says he is.

This probably sounds overly negative, and I don't mean it to be. I just don't see any predictive value in this version of your similarity scores. I do commend you for trying to find it, though.

Just Win Baby said:

JKL said:

Cutler is the real deal, grab him in dynasty. Here is a set of similarity scores I wrote about at the PFR blog. When the names Montana, Brady, Aikman, Favre, Roethlisberger, Brees, Peyton and Jim Kelly are in your comp list at a similar age, the odds are we have a star on our hands. I expect a monster year sometime in the near future, I just don't know if it will be 2008. I still like him higher than his current ADP. The comp% might go down a bit due to regression, but I think the attempts go up, I see no reason that the YPA should go down, and I think he bumps up the td% in 2008.

I'll go with 320 for 520, 3950 pass yards, 28 pass td's, 15 int's, and another 100/1 on the ground.

Click to expand...

No offense, but I just don't find this as impressive as some might, at least for fantasy purposes. First of all, you explain your formula, but you don't explain why it is valid (i.e., why subtract 1 point per passing attempt, etc.). Secondly, let's look at the top 5 similarity scores for Cutler:1. Brady 2001 - QB19

2. Carr 2004 - QB14

3. Montana 1981 - QB8

4. Aikman 1992 - QB4

5. Losman 2006 - QB13

Yes, Brady, Montana, and Aikman are HOF caliber QBs. But 3 of these guys were not startable as fantasy QBs in their cited comparable season. And Aikman was surrounded by elite teammates, on both offense and defense, which Cutler is not. Just the fact that Brady and Carr are right beside each other in the ranking shows that it is not useful as a predictor of greatness.

Furthermore, look at Derek Anderson's top 5:

1. Marino 1985 - QB2

2. Bledsoe 1997 - QB5

3. Cunningham 1987 - QB2

4. Brooks 2001 - QB8

5. Everett 1988 - QB2

Is anyone using this to suggest Anderson will be a great QB? Most seem to be down on Anderson. On top of that, I really wouldn't consider Anderson to be particularly similar as a QB to Cunningham or Brooks or Vick (#7 on his similarity list), yet this similarity score says he is.

This probably sounds overly negative, and I don't mean it to be. I just don't see any predictive value in this version of your similarity scores. I do commend you for trying to find it, though.

Click to expand...

I'll try not to hijack the thread, but I will address some of what you said. First, I agree with some of it. I was evaluating the passing stats and their similarities, but I should have probably also included some rushing stat to differentiate between mobile qb's and immobile qb's putting up similar passing rate stats.I also agree that, as with any similarity score system, there can be debate on the weights given to each category. If I eliminate the pass attempts penalty, for example, or reduce it greatly, then David Carr falls further down the list (he had 1 fewer pass attempt than Cutler). I settled on each to give a stiff penalty when there were differences, if you throw 100 fewer passes (probably about 3 fewer starts), then you get penalized and have to be extremely similar in every other category, just like if you complete 58% to another QB's 63%. What we are left with is guys who are pretty similar stat wise across most categories, and then you can check to see where the differences are.

I disagree strongly with the statement that the fact Brady and Carr are next to each other on the list shows it is not useful. I think the opposite. Would it have been more useful to you if, rather than running similarity scores that parse out each passing category, I had said something like 75% of all QB's age 25 or under who threw completed at least 61% of their passes, while having a YPA over 7.2 and a td% over 4.0%, would be selected all-pro at least twice over the rest of their careers? (stat made up, btw) Then, you wouldn't have seen the specific names, to have some gut reaction like that stat is worthless because player X met that criteria. With this list, you can look at where the differences lie. Between Cutler and Carr, the major ones are 1) Cutler threw for a higher td% in the year in question, and 2) Carr was in his third season starting, while Cutler was in his first (plus a few games as a rookie). Between Cutler and Brady, they are that Brady threw less passes, and for a lower YPA, but are virtually identical in comp%, td, and int. The fact that Carr shows up doesn't invalidate that he is also similar to 8 top level QB's.

One of the things I fairly consistently observed in doing the research for this was that, among a group of otherwise similar players, the ones that threw for a relatively higher td% tended to turn out better within that group, while the opposite was true for int%.

I don't want to spiral off on Anderson, but I'll just say that your use of the word "most" is probably overstated, I would say "some". I think he is going to be somewhere between up and down, with some good seasons, to better than that, and I do think guys like Bledsoe, Everett and Eli Manning are good comps. Predictive value? I think there is some predictive value in knowing that QB's with high td% and a decent YPA at an early age, even if coupled with a middling to below average comp%, tend to stick around and have decent careers.

Good to see some high thoughts on Cutler here. I play in a great league of all Vandy alums, and theres no way Cutler makes it past round 5 this year now that he shown to be capable of 25+ passing TDs. BUT at least with him behind center, you know his WR1, Brandon Marshall this year again, will be getting TONS of looks.

The value play in Denver is probably their TE, Tony Scheffeler, as he will be the 8th-12th TE off the board, but if the foot holds up, he can post top 5 numbers and 6+ TDs.

Chase Stuart said:

Cutler had the misfortune of missing the Lions game, which means he probably should have had a another 300/3 last season.

He actually had the hardest schedule in the league last season. When adjusting for SOS, Cutler was the 11th best QB on a per game basis last year. That's obviously borderline QB1 material.

The one problem for Cutler -- he's projected to have the toughest schedule in the league this year. So it might not be wise to "bump his '07 numbers up" because he had the hardest schedule in the league last year.

Click to expand...

I could be wrong but I thought I read on a fantasy football site on their SOS, Cutler and the Broncos had the easiest SOS this year?

Trickster said:

Chase Stuart said:

Cutler had the misfortune of missing the Lions game, which means he probably should have had a another 300/3 last season.

He actually had the hardest schedule in the league last season. When adjusting for SOS, Cutler was the 11th best QB on a per game basis last year. That's obviously borderline QB1 material.

The one problem for Cutler -- he's projected to have the toughest schedule in the league this year. So it might not be wise to "bump his '07 numbers up" because he had the hardest schedule in the league last year.

Click to expand...

I could be wrong but I thought I read on a fantasy football site on their SOS, Cutler and the Broncos had the easiest SOS this year?

Click to expand...

No, they are "projected" to have the hardest schedule. You have to watch some of those rankings. Some list them hardest-to-easiest while others list them easiest-to-hardest. It's easy to get them mixed up if you don't look carefully.I don't put "alot" of stock into SOS anyway. It never turns out to hold as much water as some think.

Anyone worried about Cutler having a rookie protect his blindside, and in general playing behind a line in transition? It may not be a bad thing - he's way more athletic than most people realize. Cutler had 1256/17 rushing in college - and that's against SEC competition, so you know he earned it. Maybe his rushing stats are in for a bump with Clady learning the ropes and his diabetes diagnosed and in check?

JKL said:

Just Win Baby said:

JKL said:

Cutler is the real deal, grab him in dynasty. Here is a set of similarity scores I wrote about at the PFR blog. When the names Montana, Brady, Aikman, Favre, Roethlisberger, Brees, Peyton and Jim Kelly are in your comp list at a similar age, the odds are we have a star on our hands. I expect a monster year sometime in the near future, I just don't know if it will be 2008. I still like him higher than his current ADP. The comp% might go down a bit due to regression, but I think the attempts go up, I see no reason that the YPA should go down, and I think he bumps up the td% in 2008.

I'll go with 320 for 520, 3950 pass yards, 28 pass td's, 15 int's, and another 100/1 on the ground.

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No offense, but I just don't find this as impressive as some might, at least for fantasy purposes. First of all, you explain your formula, but you don't explain why it is valid (i.e., why subtract 1 point per passing attempt, etc.). Secondly, let's look at the top 5 similarity scores for Cutler:1. Brady 2001 - QB19

2. Carr 2004 - QB14

3. Montana 1981 - QB8

4. Aikman 1992 - QB4

5. Losman 2006 - QB13

Yes, Brady, Montana, and Aikman are HOF caliber QBs. But 3 of these guys were not startable as fantasy QBs in their cited comparable season. And Aikman was surrounded by elite teammates, on both offense and defense, which Cutler is not. Just the fact that Brady and Carr are right beside each other in the ranking shows that it is not useful as a predictor of greatness.

Furthermore, look at Derek Anderson's top 5:

1. Marino 1985 - QB2

2. Bledsoe 1997 - QB5

3. Cunningham 1987 - QB2

4. Brooks 2001 - QB8

5. Everett 1988 - QB2

Is anyone using this to suggest Anderson will be a great QB? Most seem to be down on Anderson. On top of that, I really wouldn't consider Anderson to be particularly similar as a QB to Cunningham or Brooks or Vick (#7 on his similarity list), yet this similarity score says he is.

This probably sounds overly negative, and I don't mean it to be. I just don't see any predictive value in this version of your similarity scores. I do commend you for trying to find it, though.

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I'll try not to hijack the thread, but I will address some of what you said. First, I agree with some of it. I was evaluating the passing stats and their similarities, but I should have probably also included some rushing stat to differentiate between mobile qb's and immobile qb's putting up similar passing rate stats.I also agree that, as with any similarity score system, there can be debate on the weights given to each category. If I eliminate the pass attempts penalty, for example, or reduce it greatly, then David Carr falls further down the list (he had 1 fewer pass attempt than Cutler). I settled on each to give a stiff penalty when there were differences, if you throw 100 fewer passes (probably about 3 fewer starts), then you get penalized and have to be extremely similar in every other category, just like if you complete 58% to another QB's 63%. What we are left with is guys who are pretty similar stat wise across most categories, and then you can check to see where the differences are.

I disagree strongly with the statement that the fact Brady and Carr are next to each other on the list shows it is not useful. I think the opposite. Would it have been more useful to you if, rather than running similarity scores that parse out each passing category, I had said something like 75% of all QB's age 25 or under who threw completed at least 61% of their passes, while having a YPA over 7.2 and a td% over 4.0%, would be selected all-pro at least twice over the rest of their careers? (stat made up, btw) Then, you wouldn't have seen the specific names, to have some gut reaction like that stat is worthless because player X met that criteria. With this list, you can look at where the differences lie. Between Cutler and Carr, the major ones are 1) Cutler threw for a higher td% in the year in question, and 2) Carr was in his third season starting, while Cutler was in his first (plus a few games as a rookie). Between Cutler and Brady, they are that Brady threw less passes, and for a lower YPA, but are virtually identical in comp%, td, and int. The fact that Carr shows up doesn't invalidate that he is also similar to 8 top level QB's.

One of the things I fairly consistently observed in doing the research for this was that, among a group of otherwise similar players, the ones that threw for a relatively higher td% tended to turn out better within that group, while the opposite was true for int%.

I don't want to spiral off on Anderson, but I'll just say that your use of the word "most" is probably overstated, I would say "some". I think he is going to be somewhere between up and down, with some good seasons, to better than that, and I do think guys like Bledsoe, Everett and Eli Manning are good comps. Predictive value? I think there is some predictive value in knowing that QB's with high td% and a decent YPA at an early age, even if coupled with a middling to below average comp%, tend to stick around and have decent careers.

Click to expand...

I still don't see the value. Is it supposed to be valuable for projecting players like Cutler for this for fantasy purposes or for NFL purposes? Is it for projecting the upcoming season or a player's career? Regardless, I don't see how this helps.Cutler compares well to Brady in 2001, and Brady is now a great fantasy QB. But Brady wasn't a great fantasy QB in the compared year, from a fantasy standpoint. If you reversed this, and determine a list of QBs who had seasons similar to Brady's 2001 season based on your similarity score, do you think that list will be a list of great fantasy QBs? If you did that for some of Brady's later seasons, it might be, but not for 2001. So what does Cutler having a comparable year to Brady's 2001 season really tell us for fantasy purposes?

Brady was great in 2001 because he led his team to an 11-3 regular season record as a starter and then to a Super Bowl championship. But your similarity score doesn't address winning. So, again, I'm not sure how we get value from it in predicting NFL success either.

Cutler compared very favorably to Carr in 2004 as well. If this similarity score is valid, and thus it is true that Cutler's season last year was comparable to Carr's 2004 season, then couldn't it be just as likely that Cutler will follow Carr's subsequent career path rather than Brady's? Those are opposite paths, yet they are the two highest similarity scores. Why assume the Brady/Montana path rather than the Carr/Losman path?

Aikman is on the list, but 1992 was his best fantasy season, and he only had one other season in which he was in the top 10 (as QB10) if I recall correctly. Again, what does it tell us to say that Cutler is comparable to him for fantasy purposes? And, like Brady, Aikman's ultimate success was due to winning and intangibles, which isn't measured by the formula, so this doesn't seem to be useful for predicting similar NFL success, either.

Once again, I appreciate your effort. I guess I'll just have to agree to disagree that the results are useful for predicting either future fantasy or NFL results.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Anyone worried about Cutler having a rookie protect his blindside, and in general playing behind a line in transition? It may not be a bad thing - he's way more athletic than most people realize. Cutler had 1256/17 rushing in college - and that's against SEC competition, so you know he earned it. Maybe his rushing stats are in for a bump with Clady learning the ropes and his diabetes diagnosed and in check?

Click to expand...

The bolded is so true, Sig.I think Shanahan has been working with him to keep his running in check to this point. He tried to do the same thing with Elway.

In any case, he may be willing to turn him loose a little more this season. I'm sure there will be growing pains with Clady, as there always is with rookie OTs, but all-in-all, I think this unit will begin to gel this year.

Andy Herron said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Anyone worried about Cutler having a rookie protect his blindside, and in general playing behind a line in transition? It may not be a bad thing - he's way more athletic than most people realize. Cutler had 1256/17 rushing in college - and that's against SEC competition, so you know he earned it. Maybe his rushing stats are in for a bump with Clady learning the ropes and his diabetes diagnosed and in check?

Click to expand...

The bolded is so true, Sig.I think Shanahan has been working with him to keep his running in check to this point. He tried to do the same thing with Elway.

In any case, he may be willing to turn him loose a little more this season. I'm sure there will be growing pains with Clady, as there always is with rookie OTs, but all-in-all, I think this unit will begin to gel this year.

Click to expand...

Shanahan is a coach that has had the privilege of working with both John Elway and Steve Young. Since Elway retired, he's had to deal with Brian Griese and Jake the Snake. I bet he's been itching or a QB he can cut loose, and now he has that in Cutler.

a_troll00 said:

Andy Herron said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Anyone worried about Cutler having a rookie protect his blindside, and in general playing behind a line in transition? It may not be a bad thing - he's way more athletic than most people realize. Cutler had 1256/17 rushing in college - and that's against SEC competition, so you know he earned it. Maybe his rushing stats are in for a bump with Clady learning the ropes and his diabetes diagnosed and in check?

Click to expand...

The bolded is so true, Sig.I think Shanahan has been working with him to keep his running in check to this point. He tried to do the same thing with Elway.

In any case, he may be willing to turn him loose a little more this season. I'm sure there will be growing pains with Clady, as there always is with rookie OTs, but all-in-all, I think this unit will begin to gel this year.

Click to expand...

Shanahan is a coach that has had the privilege of working with both John Elway and Steve Young. Since Elway retired, he's had to deal with Brian Griese and Jake the Snake. I bet he's been itching or a QB he can cut loose, and now he has that in Cutler.

Click to expand...

I agree, especially now that he's healthy. Shanahan just wanted Cutler to get some games under his belt and focus on the "passing" aspect of his game before he was willing to cut him loose. Now that he has stabilized his completion percentage well above 60, it's time.

a_troll00 said:

Andy Herron said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Anyone worried about Cutler having a rookie protect his blindside, and in general playing behind a line in transition? It may not be a bad thing - he's way more athletic than most people realize. Cutler had 1256/17 rushing in college - and that's against SEC competition, so you know he earned it. Maybe his rushing stats are in for a bump with Clady learning the ropes and his diabetes diagnosed and in check?

Click to expand...

The bolded is so true, Sig.I think Shanahan has been working with him to keep his running in check to this point. He tried to do the same thing with Elway.

In any case, he may be willing to turn him loose a little more this season. I'm sure there will be growing pains with Clady, as there always is with rookie OTs, but all-in-all, I think this unit will begin to gel this year.

Click to expand...

Shanahan is a coach that has had the privilege of working with both John Elway and Steve Young. Since Elway retired, he's had to deal with Brian Griese and Jake the Snake. I bet he's been itching or a QB he can cut loose, and now he has that in Cutler.

Click to expand...

You're right about Griese, but Plummer was very athletic, and a good running QB. I tried to find Plummer's college stats to compare to what was posted above for Cutler, but I couldn't find them.

Just Win Baby said:

a_troll00 said:

Andy Herron said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Anyone worried about Cutler having a rookie protect his blindside, and in general playing behind a line in transition? It may not be a bad thing - he's way more athletic than most people realize. Cutler had 1256/17 rushing in college - and that's against SEC competition, so you know he earned it. Maybe his rushing stats are in for a bump with Clady learning the ropes and his diabetes diagnosed and in check?

Click to expand...

The bolded is so true, Sig.I think Shanahan has been working with him to keep his running in check to this point. He tried to do the same thing with Elway.

In any case, he may be willing to turn him loose a little more this season. I'm sure there will be growing pains with Clady, as there always is with rookie OTs, but all-in-all, I think this unit will begin to gel this year.

Click to expand...

Shanahan is a coach that has had the privilege of working with both John Elway and Steve Young. Since Elway retired, he's had to deal with Brian Griese and Jake the Snake. I bet he's been itching or a QB he can cut loose, and now he has that in Cutler.

Click to expand...

You're right about Griese, but Plummer was very athletic, and a good running QB. I tried to find Plummer's college stats to compare to what was posted above for Cutler, but I couldn't find them.

Click to expand...

Plummer had a strong arm and he could run, but he wasn't accurate and didn't make good decisions. Shanahan wound up putting him on a tight leash.

With one full season under his belt I think Cutler is in for a big season. He will represent the AFC in the Pro Bowl this year and will lead Denver to the playoffs. This is the year he makes a name for himself and the last year that he will have good value in the FF draft. After this year everyone who opens a FF magazine will think that they need to pick him up in the first three rounds. Right now his ADP is QB 11 (78 pick overall). He will be better than at least 4 of the QB’s (Anderson, McNabb, Hasselbeck, and Little Manning) picked before him. Buy cheap now or regret it later.

Passing Yards 3800

Passing TDs 30

Ints 12

Rush Yards 250

Rush TDs 3

Chase Stuart said:

He actually had the hardest schedule in the league last season. When adjusting for SOS, Cutler was the 11th best QB on a per game basis last year. That's obviously borderline QB1 material.

The one problem for Cutler -- he's projected to have the toughest schedule in the league this year. So it might not be wise to "bump his '07 numbers up" because he had the hardest schedule in the league last year.

Click to expand...

Why not? It's not like strength of schedule projections are an exact science, after all.Let's say that Cutler's SoS ranked as a 10 out of 10 last year. This year it might project out to a 10 out of 10 again... but what that really means is there's a 25% chance it's a 10, a 20% chance it's a 9, a 15% chance it's an 8, a 10% chance it's a 7, a 10% chance it's a 6, a 5% chance it's a 5, a 5% chance it's a 4, a 5% chance it's a 3, a 3% chance it's a 2, and a 2% chance it's a 1. A simple weighted average means that, assuming those weights are accurate, we should be projecting him based on a SoS of 7.48- a noticeable improvement over the 10 that he faced last year.

If a QB faced the hardest schedule in the league in year N, I think it would be unwise to deny him an "SoS bump" no matter WHAT the projection was for his schedule in year N+1. At the very least, you know it's extremely unlikely that his schedule will be any HARDER, right?

SSOG said:

Chase Stuart said:

He actually had the hardest schedule in the league last season. When adjusting for SOS, Cutler was the 11th best QB on a per game basis last year. That's obviously borderline QB1 material.

The one problem for Cutler -- he's projected to have the toughest schedule in the league this year. So it might not be wise to "bump his '07 numbers up" because he had the hardest schedule in the league last year.

Click to expand...

Why not? It's not like strength of schedule projections are an exact science, after all.Let's say that Cutler's SoS ranked as a 10 out of 10 last year. This year it might project out to a 10 out of 10 again... but what that really means is there's a 25% chance it's a 10, a 20% chance it's a 9, a 15% chance it's an 8, a 10% chance it's a 7, a 10% chance it's a 6, a 5% chance it's a 5, a 5% chance it's a 4, a 5% chance it's a 3, a 3% chance it's a 2, and a 2% chance it's a 1. A simple weighted average means that, assuming those weights are accurate, we should be projecting him based on a SoS of 7.48- a noticeable improvement over the 10 that he faced last year.

If a QB faced the hardest schedule in the league in year N, I think it would be unwise to deny him an "SoS bump" no matter WHAT the projection was for his schedule in year N+1. At the very least, you know it's extremely unlikely that his schedule will be any HARDER, right?

Click to expand...

Exactly. That was the short definition I was going for when I said "might not be wise."

Cutler is in an iffy situation. He has a great young receiver in Marshall, but who knows how that injury affects him. Will he be able to catch the ball the same? After that, though, there isn't alot to get excited about. Darrell Jackson used to be a stud, but those days appear as if they're behind him. Keary Colbert has been less than terrible at times, but never really gotten defenses too worried. Denver's running game? They just cut the most talented back on the team in Henry, everyone else is an unknown. So, One REALLY good receiver, and not alot else, except for Scheffler who's injured.

Now, here's the awesome part, he was in almost the same situation this past year, and still had a very nice fantasy season, all while dealing with the diabetes issue that caused significant weight loss. He lost Javon Walker, had a very inconsistent running game, and still came up with 3500 yards and 20 tds. If Marshall and Scheffler are both healthy by training camp, I find it impossible not to be high on Cutler.

319/498

3586 Yards

24 Touchdowns

15 Ints

60 Rushes

252 Rushing Yards

2 Rushing Tds

3 Fumbles Lost

I'll be targeting Cutler in the middle rounds this year as my QB1. I think he has huge upside. I'm projecting 3,800 passing yards, 26 TD, 12 INT, 188 rushing yards, 2 Rushing TDs. I'd rather look for value with Cutler then reach for an Anderson, McNabb, or Big Ben once the more elite QBs are gone. If you back him up with qa Schaub or Garrard a few rounds later I think you can put up solid QB production at solid value.