Player Spotlight: Matt Schaub (1 Viewer)

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Matt Schaub Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Assuming that Andre Johnson returns to the lineup in week one, I really like the prospects for Matt Schaub in 08. Houston passed for over 3900 yards and 24 TDs in 07, even with injuries to both Schaub and Johnson. I look for those numbers to increase in 08 and unless injured, Schaub should be the beneficiary of those passing stats.

Matt Schaub 16 starts 360 comp 540 att (66.7%) for 4040 yards 7.48 ypa with 27 TDs and 14 ints & 100 rushing with 1 TD

Schaub is an interesting guy, I think he'll make a great QB2 and a passable QB1 if you are a QBBC type.

I see his touchdowns going way up but his yardage staying the same or even coming down slightly as I'm expecting the Texans defense to take a big step this year.

3300-25 sounds about right, but I question whether he can stay healthy all year.

Matt Schaub is one of the few qb's that would be worth handcuffing. Whether it's Schaub or Sage Rosenfels it seems like the Texans QB could have a lot of fantasy success this season. They threw for nearly 4000 last season and that's with Andre Johnson missing 7 games.

Houston's offensive line should be better with their 1st round pick Duane Brown and a couple of guys returning from injury. They have weapons in Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis and Jacoby Jones. If Ahman Green can come back he's be another receiving option. I doubt they'll be relying on the running game too much so there should be plenty of passing attempts. It's all lined up for Matt Schaub to have a very good season in question. The question is can he take advantage. The Texans have paid Matt Schaub a lot of money to be their star QB so he'll get every opportunity to succeed. If he doesn't however they have a good backup in Sage Rosenfels.

rzrback77 said:

Assuming that Andre Johnson returns to the lineup in week one, I really like the prospects for Matt Schaub in 08. Houston passed for over 3900 yards and 24 TDs in 07, even with injuries to both Schaub and Johnson. I look for those numbers to increase in 08 and unless injured, Schaub should be the beneficiary of those passing stats.

Matt Schaub 16 starts 360 comp 540 att (66.7%) for 4040 yards 7.48 ypa with 27 TDs and 14 ints & 100 rushing with 1 TD

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NICE.

The Man with the Plan said:

Matt Schaub is one of the few qb's that would be worth handcuffing. Whether it's Schaub or Sage Rosenfels it seems like the Texans QB could have a lot of fantasy success this season. They threw for nearly 4000 last season and that's with Andre Johnson missing 7 games.

Houston's offensive line should be better with their 1st round pick Duane Brown and a couple of guys returning from injury. They have weapons in Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis and Jacoby Jones. If Ahman Green can come back he's be another receiving option. I doubt they'll be relying on the running game too much so there should be plenty of passing attempts. It's all lined up for Matt Schaub to have a very good season in question. The question is can he take advantage. The Texans have paid Matt Schaub a lot of money to be their star QB so he'll get every opportunity to succeed. If he doesn't however they have a good backup in Sage Rosenfels.

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I agree.

Schaub is one of the players I am the highest on relative to the current expert rankings. Since we don't have a lengthy history on Schaub, people assume he is injury-prone, and that is buying you value. Also, of all his stats, his worst category was touchdowns, the one stat fantasy footballers probably focus on the most, but he was very good in several other efficiency stats, like completion percentage, yards per attempt, qb rating, and adjusted yards per attempt.

He and Andre Johnson were both hurt last year and missed playing several games together, but at this point, I don't see any reason to believe that Schaub is more of any injury risk than any other QB not named Peyton Manning, or incapable of throwing for a decent amount of touchdowns based on a small sample size. What I do see is a guy who had good efficiency stats to suggest he is the real deal if he is healthy all year, and a guy who fits the profile of other quarterback successes who were drafted outside the first round. Most of those guys were at least league average in performance stats their first season as a starter, and a good amount of them had their breakout in year two. I think, at a similar age, you have the chance to get Matt Hasselbeck version 2003 here.

I'll go with the following:

300 att/490 comp, 3780 pass yards, 27 td's, 14 int's, 80 rush yds, 2 td's.

I don't have the faith you guys apparently do. I wouldn't mind owning him and Sage though. If AJ looks alright during the preseason, I'll raise his numbers.

248 405 3009 16 12

29 87 0

We essentially have 1 years worth of data on Schaub. I was particularly interested in seeing others reaction to him and also how much people projected him, not in terms of his stats but just what kind of response he received. In short, he is my sleeper of the year:

In 2007, Matt Schaub finished 5th in the NFL in Completion % & 6th in the NFL in YPA. If you review the NFL over the last 5 years, here are the QB's how did this:

2007

Brady

Favre

2006

Romo (1st year as starter)

Manning

Brees

2005

Manning

Bulger

2004

Culpepper

Manning

Roethlisberger (1st year as starter)

Green

2003

Manning

Culpepper

The company you keep in accomplishing this feat in the NFL is pretty high. Obviously, there is a question as to whether Schaub can keep up this level of performance - again, we have but 1 year of data here to work with. However, the QB's who have exceled in these two areas are able to lead their offenses with a combination of efficiency, consistency and explosiveness.

For Schaub, the Texans never failed to score 16 points in any game he started and finished (8) in 2007. In addition, Schaub never threw for fewer than 225 yards in any game. In those 8 games combined, Schaub threw for:

2107 Passing Yards & 9 TD's. And he did this in large part without the services of his most dangerous weapon on offense in Andre Johnson.

You can say that with all those yards, why are his TD's not higher. Not having Johnson I think hurt Schaub's ability to have a go-to guy in TD situations and red zone opportunties. Having Johnson, the continued development of Jacoby Jones, the hopeful continuation of Andre Davis's re-emergence and the steady production and reliability of Kevin Walter gives the Texans their best WR corps ever. Add in Owen Daniels and the Texans have a passing game with significant potential. Without a bellcow in the running game or any certainty that it can be productive, it would not be surprising if the passing game took on heightened importance for the Texans in 2008. Ahman Green & Chris Brown have played in a 57 games out of a possible 96 over the last 3 seasons.

Durability I guess is Schaub's big question mark because he did miss parts of 3 games in which he did start and an additional 5 due to a shoulder injury. But I think he still deserves the benefit of the doubt on this issue since this was his first year starting and injuries can be rather random. Unlike Green and Brown mentioned above, Schuab has not built up any tangible injury history.

Prediction: 341 Completions, 523 Attempts, 65.2 Completion Rate, 7.73 YPA, 4042 Passing Yards, 23 TD's, 16 INT's; 31 rushes 65 yards 1 TD.

Weeks 1, 2, 11 and 12 were the only weeks that Schaub and Johnson were healthy. Those weeks, Schaub had:

79/119, 1001, 7, 3

With 6 pt TD and 2 pt INT, that's 21.5 FP/G, which is very good. On the other hand, two of those games were against New Orleans and Cleveland, who got torched by everyone. So that's a bit less impressive. After adjusting for SOS, Schaub scored a little over 1 FP/G more than average last year with Johnson in the lineup.

I like Schaub, and it's fun to pro-rate his AJ stats. But please keep in mind that half of those games were against two of the three worst pass defenses in the league last year.

Matt Schaub played very well when he was healthy and the rest of the offensive talent around him was healthy. He is one of the QB's in the NFL who could be one of the guys later in the draft who will emerge as one of your big time surprises. If you're a guy who likes to take your Qb's later in the draft and let some of the big namaes go, Schaub may be your guy. On the flip side, he showed he was immortal last season by getting dinged up and not able to go some games as well and so too did his primary play maker.

However, sleeper type picks in the draft don't just come gift wrapped. If everything appeared to be perfect up front, then they'd be bumped way up the draft. I tend to see the glass more full with Schaub and think he's a pretty solid young QB and would tend to draft this guy in the right spot than to let him pass by me.

3450 yards, 19 Td's and 17 Int's with 120 yards rushing and 1 td

rzrback77 said:

Assuming that Andre Johnson returns to the lineup in week one, I really like the prospects for Matt Schaub in 08. Houston passed for over 3900 yards and 24 TDs in 07, even with injuries to both Schaub and Johnson. I look for those numbers to increase in 08 and unless injured, Schaub should be the beneficiary of those passing stats.Matt Schaub 16 starts 360 comp 540 att (66.7%) for 4040 yards 7.48 ypa with 27 TDs and 14 ints & 100 rushing with 1 TD

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4000+ yards passing for Schaub

If you draft Schaub you better have a back up plan with Sage Rosenfels, who btw looked tremendous at time on the field last season. Can Schaub stay healthy all season? Can he finish football games? How many games did he not finish?

12 healthy games

2800 yds 16 TD

His numbers could be a lot higher if he remains healthy.

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

On the flip side, he showed he was immortal last season by getting dinged up...

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Wow, immortality comes cheap these days I think the addition of Gibbs should help out the running game considerably. Schaub did what he did last year without much of a threat on the ground. I think Houston will have a more balanced attack this season, and hopefully that results in Schaub facing a bit less pressure. A healthy Andre Johnson and a deeper receiving corps will help as well. Like many others, I really believe this is an "up and coming" offense.290/470, 3450yds, 22TDs, 13INT, 90yds rush, 1TD

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

rzrback77 said:

Assuming that Andre Johnson returns to the lineup in week one, I really like the prospects for Matt Schaub in 08. Houston passed for over 3900 yards and 24 TDs in 07, even with injuries to both Schaub and Johnson. I look for those numbers to increase in 08 and unless injured, Schaub should be the beneficiary of those passing stats.Matt Schaub 16 starts 360 comp 540 att (66.7%) for 4040 yards 7.48 ypa with 27 TDs and 14 ints & 100 rushing with 1 TD

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4000+ yards passing for Schaub

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The Texans as a team had 3,925 yards last season and Andre Johnson missed seven games. I get that it is an increase, but a jaw-drop? Seems a legitimate consideration to me.

I've always liked this guy, not so much to become an elite QB, but I saw enough while he was in Atlanta to convince me he could play in this league. The Falcons should have named him the starter a LONG time ago, and I was saying that BEFORE Vick got bit by the dog thing. He's got a good head on his shoulders and a good arm. I was thrilled to see him go to Houston just so the Falcons could see how stupid they were.

Shaub seems a popular choice for QB2 and IMO w/good reason. If he and AJ can stay healthy, should be a good pick.

I have this guy going in the 7th rd quite often in mocks even though he apparently was going in the 10th a few weeks ago - I won't dip this early by any stretch but would definitely if he was there in the 10th.

Nate said:

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

On the flip side, he showed he was immortal last season by getting dinged up...

Click to expand...

Wow, immortality comes cheap these days I think the addition of Gibbs should help out the running game considerably. Schaub did what he did last year without much of a threat on the ground. I think Houston will have a more balanced attack this season, and hopefully that results in Schaub facing a bit less pressure. A healthy Andre Johnson and a deeper receiving corps will help as well. Like many others, I really believe this is an "up and coming" offense.290/470, 3450yds, 22TDs, 13INT, 90yds rush, 1TD

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I agree. The addition of Alex Gibbs, Duane Brown, and Chris Brown all point towards a focus on the running attack. Kubiak has stated several times that a key focus this season is to establish the running game. Last season the team had to rely on the passing game entirely too much due to injuries and a lack of talent in the back field. Because of that, Schaub saw more pressure than anyone was comfortable with. So, in response to that, the Texans have done everything in their power to improve the running game.So, I don't expect the passing game to match the same numbers as last season, based on the mere fact that there won't be as many attempts because (1) the running game will play a much bigger role and (2) the defense should be improved. On the other hand, Schaub should have a greater opportunity to stay healthy because (1) the defense won't be able to anticipate pass as easily and (2) the play action bootleg should be more effective and used more with Alex Gibbs' influence. I expect something around 3500, 25/10

An increased threat at the RB position may or may not decrease the # of attempts. If Houston extends their drives and sees less 3 and outs we will see a much more balanced and effective offensive attack. I could see an increase in Schaub's already strong completion % and maybe near the same number of catches due to Defenses not being able to key on Schaub.

With an improved Defense the Offense should see the field more as well. I see Houston's passing and TD #'s going up, and if Schaub is healthy he'll see the lion's share of the #'s. I predict somewhere around 3800, 28/15.

Schaub/Rosenfels 2008 = Big Ben 2007

Probably the only QB that you would want to handcuff w/ his backup. In fact, I thought Rosenfells was more impressive than Schaub last year. Either way, Houston's offense is looking up w/ Kubiak calling the shots. I'll be targeting Schaub possibly in QBBC as I see somewhere around 3500 and 28 for the Houston QBs. A better running game will only help IMO.

Does Schaubs great game in week 4 coupled with Sages horrible game in week 5 solidify Matt Schuab as the starter for the rest of the season?

I think we can put the Schuab's job is on the line talk to rest after sage gift wraping the game for the colts today.

Just my thoughts. I'm sure you guys agree

bushisdaman said:

Does Schaubs great game in week 4 coupled with Sages horrible game in week 5 solidify Matt Schuab as the starter for the rest of the season?I think we can put the Schuab's job is on the line talk to rest after sage gift wraping the game for the colts today.Just my thoughts. I'm sure you guys agree

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Schaub's job was never at risk. He struggled against two of the best defenses in NFL, on the road, at the beginning of the season. The Texans gave up a lot to get Schaub and they're not going to cut bait on him before they know what they have. He would have had to have several more starts like his Pittsburgh game to even create the possibility of a QB controversy. But, after Sage's performance today, the only way he ever sees the field again is if Matt gets hurt.